The Guineas picture seems a lot clearer following some key trial races in the last two weeks, notably the Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes (won by Discourse), the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes (won by Maybe), the Gr.1 Phoenix Stakes (won by La Collina) and the Gr.2 Lowther Stakes (won by Best Terms).  The winners of those four races (together with the once-raced maiden winner Fallen For You) now dominate the betting for the Guineas.  By shopping around you can get 6/1 Maybe, 8/1 Discourse, 12/1 La Collina, 14/1 Fallen For You, 20/1 Best Terms, 20/1 Questing, 20/1 Firdaws and 25/1 bar.

These are the currently top-rated fillies (according to Racing Post Ratings):

114  La Collina (K.Prendergast)  -121
112  Best Terms (R.Hannon)  -1111
112  Discourse (M.Al Zarooni)  -11
110  Maybe (A.O’Brien)  -1111
107  Gamilati (M.Al Zarooni)  -2210
105  Samitar (M.Channon)  -31
104  Angels Will Fall (B.Hills)  -117
104  Remember Alexander (J.Harrington)  -2415
103  Russelliana (Sir M.Stoute)  -126
103  Fire Lily (D.Wachman)  -13412
103  Yellow Rosebud (D.Weld)  -12
103  Regal Realm (J.Noseda)  -12
103  Inetrobil (K.Ryan)  -1246
102  Lightening Pearl (G.Lyons)  -213
102  Shumoos (B.Meehan)  -1230

Others to consider:

???  Elusive Kate (J.Gosden)  -4111
???  Switcher (T.Dascombe)  -143
91  Was (A.O’Brien)  -1
90  Dreamwriter (R.Hannon)  -1
89  Questing (J.Gosden)  -1
87  Gifted Girl (P.Cole)  -31
85  Minidress (M.Al Zarooni)  -1
84  Gray Pearl (B.Hills)  -1
82  Fallen For You (J.Gosden)  -1
82  Firdaws (R.Varian)  -2

Kevin Prendergast’s La Collina has made enormous strides since winning a median auction maiden at Limerick ten weeks ago.  She showed excellent acceleration to get to within a neck of the idling winner Maybe in the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes on her second start and took another giant leap forward when coming from a seemingly impossible position to get up close home to win the Gr.1 Phoenix Stakes over the shorter trip two weeks ago.  In some respects the Phoenix Stakes result merely served to underline the claims of Maybe, who was giving La Collina three pounds when beating her more comfortably than the official margin suggests at Leopardstown, and there is a suspicion that the horses that raced up with the pace at the Curragh (Lilbourne Lad, Power, Parish Hall, Reply) may have burned themselves out and that La Collina was running on past tiring horses in the final furlong.

It’s fair to say that the form of this year’s Phoenix Stakes is Group 2 rather than Group 1 class.  The runner-up Power (beaten a neck) had previously won the Gr.2 Coventry Stakes narrowly from a horse that was subsequently beaten a length by Frederick Engels in the Gr.2 July Stakes.  The third Tough As Nails (beaten 2l) had been runner-up in the Gr.2 Railway Stakes.  The fourth Lilbourne Lad (beaten 2½l) and fifth Reply (beaten 4¼l) were beaten by almost identical margins in the Gr.2 Gimcrack Stakes last week, while the sixth Frederick Engels (beaten 4½l) and seventh Gatepost (beaten 5l) did nothing to enhance the form in yesterday’s Gr.1 Prix Morny, finishing fifth (beaten 5½l) and seventh (beaten 10l) respectively.

Nevertheless, La Collina’s Phoenix Stakes win came as no surprise to her trainer (despite her 33/1 SP): she had reportedly been working very well beforehand and Kevin Prendergast is not afraid to have another shot at Maybe (even on three pounds worse terms) in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes next Sunday.  Although she’s not short of speed, she is bred to get at least a mile and the step back up to 7f will suit her in the Moyglare.  Given her trainer’s patchy record in the English classics, La Collina makes only limited appeal at 12/1 for the Guineas at this stage, though the Moyglare could change all that!

The tacky ground led to some strange results at York, none more so than in the Lowther, where Best Terms put up a superb front-running performance under a penalty to beat a high class field (on paper at least).  Her win (by 2l and 3¼l from Fire Lily and Hello Glory) puts her on a par at this stage of her career with recent Lowther winners such as Hooray, Lady Of The Desert, Flashy Wings, Russian Rhythm and Queen’s Logic, and it’s hard to see any of the beaten fillies reversing the form in the Cheveley Park Stakes in just over a month’s time.  Some of the beaten fillies undoubtedly performed a long way below their best (notably Gamilati and Angels Will Fall) and had their excuses, but the winner is clearly a smart filly at sprint distances.  Whether she will train on and get a mile is anyone’s guess, but she wouldn’t need to improve much on the Lowther performance to win an average Guineas.  The breeder-owner is not concerned about the filly’s diminutive stature – many of the family were on the small side but trained on well from two to three – and she has a big stride for such a small filly.  Of greater concern is her abundance of speed and you’d have to have doubts about her getting a mile.

No filly has been beaten in the Lowther and gone on to win the 1000 Guineas since Pebbles achieved the feat (in the 1984 Guineas).  Pebbles had finished fourth in the Lowther (beaten just over 4l) as a juvenile and then finished a close second in the Cheveley Park Stakes next time.  It’s hard to envisage any of this year’s Lowther also-rans winning the Guineas.  Fire Lily was the only one to give Best Terms a race but she had every chance and hasn’t achieved enough in her five races to suggest that she’s a Guineas winner in the making.  Gamilati should be given another chance, but her Cherry Hinton form hadn’t been working out well and she now has a lot to prove.  Shumoos races far too freely for her own good and won’t be winning any classics.

Discourse was an impressive winner of the Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes, always travelling well and quickly putting daylight between herself and some useful opposition (notably the Listed race winners Lily’s Angel and Kinetica).  The excellent visual impression was backed up by a good time and there’s no doubt that Discourse is a smart filly.  She has done well physically, will get a mile and won’t have to improve much further to win an average Guineas, for which her current odds of 8/1 look about right (perhaps erring slightly on the ungenerous side).  The Fillies’ Mile is a likely next target, where she will clearly be a leading contender.

Long-term Guineas favourite Maybe put in a sparkling performance to win the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes, showing speed, acceleration and stamina to win very comfortably from some unexposed and promising fillies.  She goes from strength to strength but will have plenty more on her plate in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes next weekend where she’s likely to be tested by La Collina (and possibly Samitar).

As far as the Guineas is concerned, I remain very keen on Maybe, who appears to possess all the required attributes, but obviously Discourse is also a smart filly and merits plenty of respect.  La Collina and Best Terms have shown a very high level of form but strike me as being less likely to figure in Guineas plans at this stage.

Looking outside the top four, Samitar remains a filly of considerable potential.  Her Albany Stakes win marked her out as a very talented filly and the form looks solid (with useful types like Switcher and Lily’s Angel well held).  Elusive Kate won the Gr.3 Prix du Calvados at Deauville in very good style at the weekend, taking a little while to get into top gear but winning comfortably in the end: she is progressing very nicely and sets a high standard for her stablemates at Clarehaven Stables to aim at.  I suspect that Fallen For You, who has been really well backed for the Guineas in recent weeks (from 25/1 immediately after her maiden win to a top price now of just 14/1) may turn out to be the best of the Gosden fillies – her form has been franked by Rythmic, she has been working very well, and is on course to reappear in the Gr.2 May Hill Stakes (on 9 September).

Entries are out for the Gr.3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood next Saturday and the ones that are of obvious interest are Questing (Gosden), Dreamwriter (Hannon), Gray Pearl (Hills) and Rakasa (Al Zarooni).  Group race form is represented by (among others) Regal Realm (runner-up in the Princess Margaret Stakes) and Lily’s Angel (runner-up to Discourse in the Sweet Solera Stakes).  It promises to be an informative renewal and I’m hoping for a clear-cut win by Questing, whose trainer John Gosden has had just two runners in the race in the past decade – Nannina (who won the race in 2005) and Sense Of Joy (who won the race in 2007).

Ratings (RPR) have just been published for the Prix du Calvados:

105  Elusive Kate (Gosden)
102  Mashoora (Rouget)
100  Switcher (Dascombe)

It was a strong renewal and the form looks solid (the fourth Ponte Vespucci had filled the same position behind subsequent Prix Morny winner Dabirsim in the Prix de Cabourg; the sixth Niomohe had won a Listed race by six lengths).  There is a lot to like about the winner Elusive Kate, who had the advantage of racing next to the rail, but runner-up Mashoora went some way towards fulfilling the considerable potential she showed when she made an impressive winning debut earlier in the month, while the third Switcher continues to progress (despite a rather ill-judged ride from her jockey) and may now be put away for a Guineas trial in the spring.

Power's prices on the Moyglare: evens Maybe, 7/2 La Collina, 8/1 Samitar, 10/1 Princess Sinead, 10/1 Yellow Rosebud, 12/1 Fire Lily, 16/1 bar.

No decision has been made as to whether Samitar will head to Ireland or stay at home for the £100,000 Tattersalls Millions Median Auction Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday, for which she would be a very warm favourite.  If she were to be confirmed for the Moyglare she would be the obvious each-way bet at 8/1.  Either way, Samitar seems to be in good order, according to today's gallops report (courtesy of Sky Sports):

"SAMITAR is progressing beautifully towards a Pattern-race assignment as she served it up to three workmates at West Ilsley.  The Albany Stakes winner has been absent since the Royal fixture, but her latest spin over five furlongs indicates she is in good order and ready for a return to the track.  She quickened nicely at the end of the work to hold the call over SHOW RAINBOW, REPRESENT and LADY HELLO, who runs at Wolverhampton on Thursday."  Samitar also worked very nicely at the end of last week (see the gallops video on Mick's website).  Show Rainbow, the lead horse, is a useful three-year-old filly (she won a 6f Listed race at Haydock in May and is officially rated 98).

Excellent updates James.

Personally, im no too dispondent about Samitar getting beaten. The distance was a short head and these valuable sales races can often have the odd quality animal lurking in them. But the form aside, im fully expecting her to be a better 3yo, and I guess this is why they gave her a long break after Royal Ascot (71 days) as Jamie Spencer previously described her as a ''shell of a horse''. Hopefully next year she will be a '' hell of a horse '' [:D]

I backed Maybe last time and at Ascot but she's a much worse price tomorrow, where imo she faces her stiffest task.

Certainly don't give up on Samitar.  Interestingly, Channon has recently entered her for the Gr.1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (against the colts) on Arc day, as well as for the Dewhurst a few days later.  I doubt if she'd have the pace to cope with Best Terms in the Cheveley Park, so a step up to 7f looks the sensible option.  They might decide to wait for the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes.

John Gosden's filly Questing, who was a shade disappointing in yesterday's Prestige Stakes, has just been given an entry for the Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale (8 Sept) at Longchamp, a traditional trial for the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac on Arc day.  Other British-trained entries for the Longchamp prep race are Questing's stablemate Iceni Girl, Sir Mark Prescott's pair Kinetica and Gooseberry Fool, Mick Channon's twice-raced maiden Serene Oasis, and Godolphin's maiden winners Anjaz and Ittasal.  Pick of the French-trained entries appear to be Stéphane Wattel's dual winner Rajastani and Freddie Head's debut winner Zantenda.

5/1 Maybe still available with Ladbrokes after the race, a very fair price IMO.

Meh.

Maybe is good alright but maybe (geddit!) she's done enough now?
She has won her Group 1 and we saw yet again this week that they don't mess about with retiring horses if they've achieved enough.

Last time O'Brien got one ready for Newmarket was Virginia Waters and since then Coolmore have had horses such as Rumplestiltskin, Misty For Me, Again and Listen who all looked top class at times, all well fancied for Newmarket at 2.  Some trained on, but only showed it later at the Curragh or Ascot whilst others went AWOL.

Without any guarantees of purpose, a short price on Maybe cannot be taken with any good sense. IMO!

Swift work Jair. I thought it was injury.

Well that's a good write up for a breeding catalogue.

There is the other view too though:

1. She's been beating the same horses.

So far apart from her Chesham run she's beaten the same bunch of fillies, of which few look top class.  She's most likely Irish champion filly but until she takes on French or English opposition, she's proved relatively little, bar  the fact she's smart.

2. The times

She's run 5 times, moved through the ranks, is unbeaten, yet... has never run an outstanding time.  Again, what has she beaten?  For sure any Guineas will include genuine Group 1 class animals, all with another winter on their back and realistically she'll get a proper test then.  Just as likely she'll get well tested if she goes to France.

3. Trainer/Owner record

One win ever for trainer and connections, is a poor return for such a strong establishment and suggests that the Newmarket race is not targeted with as much vigour as other targets.  That one winner (Virginia Waters) went into the race with little hype or form and could be considered somewhat of a 'surprise' winner.  Every year, Coolmore has a raft of decent 2yo fillies towards the top end of rankings and competing in the best races.  NONE of these have gone on to take the first fillies Classic.

So:  by considering 5/1 a fair price and 3/1 a true price you're failing to look at the entire picture; I presume its a view based on 'form-in-the-book'.

This is a dangerous presumption.  Those who took larger prices are well advised to trade out.  It is entirely conceivable that with regard to the 1000 Guineas, this is a low watermark for Maybe.

Good response.

And herein lies the beauty of this game; it's all about opinion and you pays yer money to find out!

The stable's record in the race is much better with fillies that have run in a prep race beforehand than with fillies making their seasonal debut in the race.

This is key to the matter IMO.  O'Brien has almost never given his number 1 Newmarket Guineas contenders a run beforehand, Virginia Waters stands out as the exception that proves the rule and sure, Together was arguably a little unlucky but Misty For Me lined up 'presumed' the chosen one.

I totally concur that anyone on at big prices has a good position to be involved with,, but feel that little can be proven between now and say early April that would make her a bet.

1. She runs and wins in France
She'll go shorter and will most likely go into the winter a very short price.  Until the prep races come round, you're relying on Coolmore training her differently to other similar types they've had and showing up for a trial or in A1 condition for a debut at HQ.

2. She runs and loses in France
If so, her price would surely drift.  It would also cast some doubt about her ability to win a Classic and indeed, her general ability in relation to the best of France and maybe England.

3. She disappears until next season
Will she even come back and if she does how likely can she win a Guineas after being off the track 8+months?  A prep would become quite desirable at this point.

I just feel each scenario points her as being a bad bet now and a worthy trade for anyone on earlier.  However, I'm not going to lecture anyone on betting strategy ()! 

As an aside it's amusing to recall her drifting on debut whilst a lesser sort from the stable was well backed.  I guess 'they' don't always know!

There are problems with backing Ballydoyle fillies for the Guineas, as it's so hard to predict what kind of preparation they will be given ahead of the race (which in turn depends on how quickly they come to hand in the spring, the state of the ground in Ireland etc), but based on all the available evidence, I think that the current odds for the Guineas (5/1 Maybe, 8/1 Discourse, 14/1 bar) look about right.  If Maybe runs in the Boussac, then obviously her odds could contract further or drift out (or stay unchanged!), depending on the result.  Betting strategy undoubtedly does come into it - I prefer to have back-up (principally in the shape of Discourse) rather than try to lay off huge sums in a sluggish antepost market on Betfair.

In terms of where Maybe stands in relation to Ballydoyle fillies of yesteryear, I certainly think that she is better at this stage of her career than Lillie Langtry, who was beaten three times in her first five races, and there is more substance to Maybe's form than there was to LL's in her first few races.  Misty For Me was a slower developer but ended up a better two-year-old than Lillie Langtry.  This year's Moyglare looked a stronger renewal than last year's (if you ignore the running of Memory in last year's race), and Maybe won in more impressive fashion, so I have to put Maybe ahead of Misty For Me at this stage of her career.

Maybe is without doubt clearly the best 2yo filly on current form and im sure she ll be pretty short over the winter for the 1000g but i have never and never will back a 2yo for the 1000 or 2000 that runs 5, 6 or even 7 times as a 2yo.I just dont like it and knowing ballydoyle and theres stratergys id be very surprised if they dont see her as very much a mature 2yo and are making hay when the suns shining.

I think there are 2 or 3 fillies that are very very good in Discourse and Fallen for you...im on the latter at 30-1 myself and im looking forward to her running in the may hill and possibily a clash of maybe, discourse and her in the fillies mile...now that would be a race worth watching.

When Dave Duggan asked Aidan about the 1000 Guineas .. although he did say it is a possibility with a filly of this class and that she would get the trip, he did then say ''lets get her 2yo career finished first'' or words to that effect.

FYI in case noone caught the interview yesterday.

re: Fallen For You, the form of her maiden looks a little suspect, with only 7½ lengths covering the first 13 home.  The runner-up Rythmic won in good style next time, which is a good sign, and it will be interesting to see how the 5th and 6th perform tomorrow at Goodwood, but the form is held down by the likes of the 9th Shannon Spree (beaten 5½ lengths), who was recently beaten in a nursery off a mark of 65.  It's therefore hard to give Fallen For You a rating much above 80.  Obviously she was making her debut, she was slowly away but still won comfortably, so she has the potential to rate considerably higher than 80, but the bare form leaves her with a huge amount to find with the likes of Maybe, Discourse etc.  The Gr.2 May Hill Stakes will tell us a lot more about her.  At this stage she has huge potential but her Guineas odds (top price 14/1) are a joke.  Similar comments apply to Roger Varian's filly Firdaws.

I've not heard any mention of the BC Juvenile Fillies in relation to Maybe.  Sint, you're right that there was no commitment to running Maybe in the Guineas, but I didn't find Aidan's comments in any way discouraging - in response to Dave Duggan's question whether the Guineas will now be the plan: "Listen, obviously, with a filly with that class, you have to be thinking of that as a three-year-old, but, look, we'll hopefully finish off her two-year-old [sic] first, but, listen, definitely looking at today you'd say a mile definitely should be no problem for her."  Make of that what you will!

the istabraq years, the percentage call has to be to back a more lightly raced filly, I agree, but if a filly takes her races as well as Maybe there is no reason why she shouldn't continue to progress and win the Guineas.  Recent 1000 Guineas winners that ran five or more times at two include Natagora (ran seven times as a juvenile), Finsceal Beo (ran five times), Speciosa (ran six times), Attraction (ran five times) and Wince (ran six times).

rhinestone, I'm sure you're right that the slowish pace (though not much slower than the preceding nursery) contributed to the bunched finish.  But it leaves the bare form looking a bit ordinary.  That's not to say that Fallen For You isn't a fine prospect, indeed I had a bit of 25/1 about her for the Guineas straight after that maiden win (mainly because of her connections, her reputation and the fact that she had managed to win first time out), and she could well make a big impression in the May Hill, but she still has a lot to prove.

Postscript on the Moyglare - the Turf Club have updated the official ratings as follows: Maybe 116 (+3), Fire Lily 111 (+6), Rubina 105 (-), Princess Sinead 105 (+6).  La Collina has been left on 114 (unchanged).  By way of comparison, Misty For Me was rated 113 when she won this year's Irish Guineas and 114 when she won the Pretty Polly Stakes (she has since been put up to 120 following the Pretty Polly victory); Blue Bunting was rated 114 after she won this year's 1000 Guineas and has since gone up to 118 (following her wins in the Irish Oaks and Yorkshire Oaks).  Purely in terms of form and ratings (and ignoring other factors that can affect performance in the Guineas) Maybe only needs to reproduce her Moyglare form to have a great chance of winning next year's Guineas.