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1000 Guineas (2012)
1000 Guineas (2012)
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No, Fire Lily is not rated above Best Terms. Richard Hannon's Lowther winner is officially rated (by the British handicapper) 113, while Fire Lily is officially rated (by the Irish handicapper) 111. It's quite likely, in my view, that Fire Lily improved for the step up to 7f and therefore the increase in her rating from 105 to 111 is justifiable. Handicapping is an inexact science, to be sure, but I do think that Maybe should be rated a few pounds above Best Terms.
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I accept that that I got it wrong for the official ratings, so apologies for that.
Howevrr while I agree it is an inexact science, Best Terms was giving Fire Lily 3lbs in the Lowther and she would now be a 1lb better off in a handicap? I firmly agree that Maybe is a much better 1000 Guineas option, but for ratings surely Best Terms must be her equal? |
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The Irish handicapper seems to consider that Fire Lily's performance in the Moyglare (her first attempt at the longer trip of 7f) was a few pounds better than what she achieved in the Lowther. This is probably based on the fact that she finished well clear of the Phoenix Stakes winner La Collina and the Debutante Stakes fourth Rubina. Her finishing position vis-à-vis Rubina suggests that Fire Lily would have finished runner-up to Maybe in the Debutante, ahead of Yellow Rosebud and Lightening Pearl (who subsequently boosted the form by running away with the Gr.3 Round Tower Stakes, which resulted in her being elevated to an official mark of 109). I'm sure that the Group 1 status of the Moyglare Stud Stakes also contributed to Fire Lily's revised rating.
Now, if Best Terms and Fire Lily were to meet again over 6f with Fire Lily receiving two pounds (in line with their official ratings), I would expect Best Terms to come out on top again (judging from their runs in the Lowther). If they were to meet over 7f on the same terms, I think it would be a lot closer but I would make Fire Lily favourite, as she has shown improved form over the longer trip and there is no guarantee that Best Terms would necessarily improve for the step up in trip. That's the way I see it anyway. Of course, it's quite possible that Best Terms herself will show further improvement next time she runs (in the Cheveley Park Stakes) and could well end the season more than two pounds ahead of Fire Lily. |
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I think that the handicapper has a problem beacuse of the rating he has given La Collina following what can only be described as a 'poor' Phoenix Stakes.
Maybe and Rubina have run virtually exactly the same race in comparison to each other from the Debutante and Maybe has naturally needed to be rated above La Collina, but I think her rating is inflated. I cannot have Maybe at the moment just 4lbs behind Midday who has top class Group 1 form over 3 seasons. Don't get me wrong, I do believe Maybe is the best 2 yo filly, but based purely on form on what she has achieved against Fire Lily, I think she can only rated the same as Best Terms. I accept Fire Lily may well have improved for the distance, but as she only raced less than two weeks ago at York previously, I don't believe she has improved 6lbs in that time |
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That maiden does look warm. Amber Silk was a massive eyecatcher last time out at Goodwood. Travelled the best througout the race but got no clear passage and stayed on strongly when the gaps appeared. She is related to High Heeled so the extra furlong should be no problem. Around 11/2 on here i'll have a few quid eachway.
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I wouldn't be too confident that Amber Silk will confirm the course form with Swingland, who ran an equally promising race on debut (in my opinion). A trappy looking race, but certainly a race to watch with an eye to the future.
Going back to the ratings, I see that Simon Turner of the Racing Post has just rated the Moyglare Stud Stakes and has rather fudged the issue by giving Maybe a RPR of 113, the same as Best Terms, and has dropped La Collina's Phoenix Stakes win by just one pound to 113. Those three are just one pound ahead of Discourse (RPR 112). Fire Lily is rated 108 (4lbs higher than her Lowther performance). Simon has clearly chosen to use Rubina (RPR 100) as the benchmark to rate Maybe's Moyglare performance just one pound ahead of her Debutante win. |
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On the clock, last time out Best Terms put up easily the best performance by a 2yo filly this season, not that I'm saying she's a good Guineas prospect.
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well done James.
It beggars belief why Fallen For You is 14/1 at this stage, even if the form had been boosted, which it hasn't. |
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I think Tom Segal highlighted it in the Weekender so that may be why it was backed from 25s. I guess that was a fair enough price, especially as a couple of firms have offered me that price about an unraced horse. I would suggest she would need to win the May Hill very well to move much from that price
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I quite agree, but we all know that her price will contract further if she wins the May Hill impressively. If she is better than her stablemates Questing and Elusive Kate, which seems distinctly possible in view of her future race schedule, then she's probably a very smart filly, but the form of her maiden win is quite ordinary. Another one which is way too short with some firms (around 16/1-20/1) is Firdaws (close second on her debut at Newbury and due to run next at Salisbury this week).
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will be interesting how Firdaws gets on tomorrow against her own sex,bred to get alot further than the mile,but still possibly one to note.imo
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sorry james didn't see your post,going blind as well as senile in my old age.lol
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Some amout of runners in that maiden too and if i had her backed i wouldn't want to have to worry about something like her draw in a salisbury maiden......
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I totally agree with regards the price about Firdaws. A very promising first run, but 20/1 must be all about home reputation. As I said a few days ago, at one stage the race looked very open, with apparently a strong set of 2yo fillies. However so many have fallen by the wayside, so much so that Fallen By You and Firdaws are now so prominent in the market having only run in maidens.
That is nothing compared to the 2000 Guineas. Power, beaten in a poor Phoenix imo, is 3rd favourite and Tales of Grimm is 20/1, presumably because it beat Firdaws? From what I've seen, the top two in the 2000 are even further clear than Maybe and Discourse and are bigger prices. |
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Firdaws will be very hard to beat at Salisbury (3.15) - I suspect that the rest will be running for the places, but the two I like at the odds are Whimsical (around 20/1) and Watanee (around 33/1). Whimsical was the chosen mount of Richard Hughes when she made her debut behind stablemate Dreamwriter over 6f at Newbury, where she was a well backed 3/1 shot but blew her chance by missing the break. I'm surprised she's such a big price with Hughesie in the plate again. Watanee is a purely speculative punt - she's just as likely to finish last as get in the places - but the same connections had a nice debutante winner a few days ago (Alsindi) and the stable is in good form at present.
Dreamwriter will be hard to beat in the Dick Poole Stakes, but I couldn't resist having a few quid on Misty Conquest at around 20/1. She has rock solid form over 6f (she beat a pair of subsequent Group 2 winners at Pontefract at the end of May and was then a close third to Lily's Angel in Listed company at HQ) and you can ignore her run last time over 7f in France. She likes to force the pace and ideally would prefer fast ground, so I hope the forecast 'good' ground dries out a bit. Inetrobil may not have coped with the sticky ground at York last time and is dropped in class here - she should go well (fair value at around 7/1). |
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Firdaws a lay tomorrow imo
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morning Rowley,james,is that because of the draw Rowley,or do you feel she is not quick enough over this trip?
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Is a shocking price, i'll only do it for the price of a couple of pints on principle tbh but i'll have about ten 'likely types' running for me, the draw is fine for the jolly tho if you want to back it today.
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I'll stick with Whimsical e/w in the maiden, but I see that Watanee has drifted right out to 50 on here so I think we can forget about that one! Alsindi was well backed to win on debut a few days ago, but there is no sign of money for Watanee. I shan't be laying Firdaws, though, despite the very short price, as most of the runners are likely to need more time and/or a longer trip.
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cheers both of you,watched Whimsical maiden again (a few times) james she certainly wasn't 'knocked' about either after fluffing her lines at the start
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63 fillies have been entered for the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac on Arc day. This used to be a key 1000 Guineas trial (it produced five winners of the Guineas in seven years between 1986-1992), but the only filly to have won the Boussac and gone on to win the Guineas in recent years was Finsceal Beo in 2007. French and German trainers account for just 16 of the 63 entries, outnumbered by Aidan O'Brien on his own (he has 20 entries)! Pick of the French entries look to be Mashoora (Rouget's sole entry) and Zantenda (Freddie Head), the latter has also been entered for the Gr.1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. Criquette Head-Maarek, who is having a wretched season (just 11 winners and languishing in 56th place in the trainers' table), has made just one entry (the unraced Preferential). Here are the English and Irish trained entries:
O'Brien: 20 entries (including Maybe) Wachman: Fire Lily Harrington: Princess Sinead Weld: Yellow Rosebud Bolger: Cleofila, Tiffilia, An Saincheann Gosden: Questing, Elusive Kate, Fallen For You, Gathering Prescott: Gooseberry Fool, Albamara, Kinetica Brittain: Alsindi, Daraa Suroor: Anjaz, Ittasal Zarooni: Discourse, Minidress Cole: Swingland, Gifted Girl Varian: Firdaws Fahey: Lily's Angel Noseda: Regal Realm Hills: Cockney Dancer Channon: Savanna Days Haggas: Pearl War Maybe and Discourse stand out on form, but the latter is more likely to head to Newmarket for the Fillies' Mile. Whatever John Gosden sends over for the Boussac will have to be respected, as he has a strong team of juvenile fillies. It's interesting that William Haggas has entered once-raced maiden Pearl War - she must be a certain future maiden winner! |
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Well, Firdaws did the business in the maiden at Salisbury today, but she was no more than workmanlike, she already needs a mile and doesn't appear to possess the speed to develop into a potential Guineas filly. A middle distance prospect for next season (in my opinion). For a few moments I thought that Whimsical might land the win part of my e/w bet...
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No Guineas clues from the Dick Poole Stakes (Listed) at Salisbury today - the winner Sajwah is a useful filly but nowhere near Group 1 class (to judge from her four races to date). I thought that both Richard Hills and Richard Kingscote rode very well judged races on their respective mounts (the latter landing the place part of the e/w bet on Misty Conquest, who was massively overpriced today). The favourite was never in the hunt and the maiden she won at Newbury was probably quite an ordinary race.
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Think Firdaws was very good today myslef. It's not easy doing what she did from that draw in a big field like she did. Especially for a second run and in the end was well on top. Not off of my list yet. As for the Hannon filly she was never gna win from where Hughes put her. Not a guineas type but watch her nto I think. Should have been much closer.
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I couldn't have Firdaws for the Guineas after yesterday tbh. She was on top at the finish but took forever to assert and looks more of a middle-distance beast, plenty of potential for improvement.
wd James |
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^thats exactly what her breeding suggests,be interesting if she goes for the fillies mile
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She's in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac as well as the Fillies' Mile, but I get the impression (from watching the post-race interview on Racing UK) that Roger Varian would prefer not to run Firdaws in Group 1 company this season, though the final decision rests with Sheikh Hamdan and his racing manager Angus Gold. I think it's much more likely that she will go for something like the Montrose Fillies' Stakes (Listed) at Newmarket at the end of the season (the race which Blue Bunting won last year). Alternatively, there's the Gr.3 Prix des Reservoirs at Deauville on 18 October.
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would like to see her go for the fillies mile now it is held at HQ,tbh i dont think she will be quick enough for a Gns.Apart from her trainer not wanting to race her in a Group One,this imo would be an ideal target
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A fascinating May Hill Stakes (Gr.2) tomorrow. The favourite Fallen For You is almost certainly a very smart filly and it's entirely possible that she could win impressively and develop into a genuine Guineas contender, but she is terrible value for tomorrow's race (based purely on her form) at around 7/4 (and terrible value too for the Guineas at 12/1). There is a possibility that people are reading too much into the fact that Regal Realm (5/2) was short of room at a crucial stage before extricating herself and showing a smart turn of foot to land the slowly-run Prestige Stakes last time, so there is no value in her odds for tomorrow's race, but she has at least proven herself in Group 3 company. Samitar was a bit disappointing (to my eyes anyway) last time in a valuable sales race over 6f at Newmarket (her narrow conqueror Mehdi did little for the form today at Doncaster, albeit under a less than inspired ride from her jockey), but it's interesting that her trainer (who had the close-up fourth behind Regal Realm in the Prestige Stakes) is stepping her up in class and distance less than two weeks later. Fourth favourite Lyric Of Light made a promising start to her career when making a winning debut two weeks ago but there's not much substance to the form, I'm not entirely convinced that she will stay the trip (as a daughter of 6f filly Suez), and she is probably just taking part to give Godolphin a line to the form, with their highly-regarded filly Discourse their intended runner in the Fillies' Mile. Tom Dascombe hinted after the Gr.3 Prix du Calvados that Switcher, who finished third in that Deauville contest, might be put away until the Guineas trials next spring, so it's interesting that he's running her again tomorrow: she finished strongly over 7f at Deauville (under a slightly ill-judged ride), doesn't have much to find on form, and has definite place claims. Na Zdorovie is officially rated 83 and needs to make enormous improvement: her Chester maiden win is very ordinary form and her earlier second to Way Too Hot at Kempton leaves her a long way behind Fallen For You's stablemate Questing. Semayyel needs to make a similarly huge leap, having won an ordinary maiden at HQ last time. Everlong looks completely outclassed, having been beaten in a Warwick maiden last time (held-up in a race not run to suit).
My gut feeling is that classy home-worker Fallen For You, from the same stable as Questing (close up behind Regal Realm in the Prestige Stakes) and Elusive Kate (who beat Switcher last time out at Deauville), may turn out to be in a different class from her May Hill rivals and could propel herself alongside Maybe and Discourse as a genuine Guineas contender, but the stand-out each-way bet (at the available odds) has to be Switcher at around 16/1. |
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jamesp
I wonder of the layers have underestimated a couple for the 1000 Guineas. Best Terms is a Queen Mary winner and looked rather more than a sprinter when running right away with the Lowther Stakes on holding ground. She looks certain to stay 7 furlongs on that, and could get a mile. She is tiny but does seem to have an engine. I suspect she may be a 2yo, but 18 or whatever she is on here is a bit of an insult to a filly with the best form seen this season. Fallen For You and Lyric of Light are both available on here at about 20's. I favour the Godolphin filly as she looks to have perfect mile breeding - she shouldn't stay much further - and the May Hill form usually stands up quite well. |
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COT, you may be right about Best Terms - she stays 6f well and although she's small she has a big stride and covers a lot of ground - but I could never fancy a horse by Exceed And Excel to win a classic over a mile and I'd like to see how she gets on in the Cheveley Park Stakes first. I suspect that Lyric Of Light will be aimed at the French Guineas, for which her next intended target the Prix Marcel Boussac is a traditional prep race. Her stablemate Discourse is being aimed at the Fillies' Mile (run this year over the same course and distance as the Guineas) and I get the impression that Discourse is currently top of the Godolphin pecking order. That could all change, of course. John Gosden has a good bunch of juvenile fillies and Fallen For You is probably the best of them: I still like her as a Guineas prospect, as I think she's more likely to be aimed at the Guineas than her May Hill conqueror Lyric Of Light.
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More 1000 Guineas clues have emerged in the last couple of weeks, as we start the countdown to the end-of-season juvenile ‘championship’ races (the Fillies’ Mile, Cheveley Park Stakes and Prix Marcel Boussac).
Guineas favourite Maybe produced another polished performance to win the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes and maintain her unbeaten record in convincing style. She is clearly best of the Irish-trained fillies and the form of her earlier victory in the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes was boosted by Lightening Pearl, impressive winner of the Gr.3 Round Tower Stakes. Slight concerns about the Moyglare form were raised following the disappointing performance of the fourth (Rubina) in a Listed race yesterday, but that may be partly attributable to the soft ground (the winning time was more than six seconds slower than standard). If Maybe races again this season it is likely to be in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac on Arc day, where she could meet Freddie Head’s unbeaten filly Zantenda, winner of last week’s Gr.3 Prix d’Aumale (a traditional prep race for the Boussac), and Godolphin’s unbeaten Lyric Of Light, winner of the Gr.2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster. Zantenda showed a smart turn of foot to come from last place in the straight and quickened a second time, having been slightly impeded inside the final furlong, to win the Prix d’Aumale in the style of a smart filly. The form has a solid look to it, with the previously unbeaten Rajastani in second and useful yardstick Kinetica in third, but the finishing position of the latter suggests that the winner has to be rated some way behind the Sweet Solera Stakes winner Discourse. Zantenda holds the Boussac entry but is also engaged in the Gr.1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (against the colts) and is owned by the Wertheimers, who tend to keep their best horses at home for the French classics, so she doesn’t appeal to me as a player in the 1000 Guineas at this stage. Lyric Of Light showed the strength in depth of Mahmood Al Zarooni’s fillies by taking a competitive renewal of the Gr.2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster last week, narrowly beating the highly regarded Fallen For You, with a healthy gap back to the Gr.3 winners Samitar and Regal Realm. She travelled really well through the early part of the race, showed good acceleration to take it up over a furlong out, but then ran green before keeping on well to win. There should be more improvement to come, but one gets the impression that she is currently second in the Godolphin pecking order behind Discourse, so the chances are that she will be campaigned in France – intially in the Prix Marcel Boussac, as a prep for the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches early next season. Fallen For You remains a smart prospect and has plenty of scope to train on well next season, so it was surprising that she was pushed out in the Guineas betting by some firms. These are currently the top-rated fillies (according to Racing Post Ratings): 113 Maybe (A.O’Brien) -11111 113 La Collina (K.Prendergast) -1213 113 Best Terms (R.Hannon) -1111 112 Discourse (M.Al Zarooni) -11 112 Lightening Pearl (G.Lyons) -2131 111 Lyric Of Light (M.Al Zarooni) -11 110 Fallen For You (J.Gosden) -12 108 Fire Lily (D.Wachman) -134122 Selected others: 105 Elusive Kate (J.Gosden) -4111 104 Zantenda (F.Head) -11 By shopping around you can get 5/1 Maybe, 8/1 Discourse, 16/1 La Collina, 16/1 Lyric Of Light, 16/1 Best Terms, 20/1 Fallen For You, 20/1 Firdaws and 25/1 bar. Maybe (likely favourite for the Prix Marcel Boussac) and Discourse (likely favourite for the Fillies’ Mile) deserve their place at the head of the Guineas market and have the best credentials at this stage. I take the view that Lyric Of Light is more likely to be aimed at the French Guineas, while La Collina, who disappointed in the Moyglare Stud Stakes and has now been beaten by Maybe on two occasions, may be kept for the Irish Guineas next season. Best Terms has the best 6f form on offer, thanks to her win in the Gr.2 Lowther Stakes, but there is no doubt that the ground played a significant factor at York and I’d want to see how she gets on in the Cheveley Park before considering her a serious Guineas contender: she’s by Exceed And Excel, so there must be doubts about her getting a mile. Fallen For You remains very much in the mix for the Guineas and is clearly a smart filly, but I don’t rate Firdaws as a Guineas prospect – her Salisbury maiden win suggests that she will need middle distances next season. Finally, here is a summary of what the last 20 winners of the 1000 Guineas had achieved by this stage of their career (i.e. by about 12 September of their juvenile season): Blue Bunting -21 (won Doncaster 8f maiden; RPR 89) Special Duty -212 (won Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin; second in Gr.1 Prix Morny; RPR 115) Ghanaati (unraced) Natagora -211112 (won Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin; second in Gr.1 Prix Morny; RPR 111) Finsceal Beo -12 (second in Tralee 8f nursery; RPR 99) Speciosa -28313 (third in Gr.2 May Hill Stakes; RPR 102) Virginia Waters -8 (eighth in Gr.3 Round Tower Stakes; RPR 84) Attraction -11111 (won Gr.2 Cherry Hinton Stakes; RPR 117) Russian Rhythm -111 (won Gr.2 Lowther Stakes; RPR 114) Kazzia -1 (won Hoppegarten 7f maiden; RPR ?) Ameerat -12 (second in Gr.3 May Hill Stakes; RPR 103) Lahan (unraced) Wince -3121 (second in Listed Star Stakes; won Chester 6f conditions race; RPR 101) Cape Verdi -121 (won Gr.2 Lowther Stakes; RPR 112) Sleepytime (unraced) Bosra Sham -1 (won Newbury 6f maiden; RPR 97) Harayir -121 (won Gr.2 Lowther Stakes; RPR 114) Las Meninas -12 (second in Gr.1 Phoenix Stakes; RPR 108) Sayyedati -211 (won Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes; RPR 111) Hatoof -1 (won Longchamp 8f maiden; RPR ?) Only four of the 20 had failed to win a race by this stage of the season. Eleven had already made their mark in pattern company (Listed class or better). Only two of the 17 that had run by this stage of the season had finished unplaced in any of their races. The fillies that had failed to win last time out had mostly finished placed in pattern company and been beaten no more than two lengths, the exceptions being Finsceal Beo (beaten a length in a nursery) and Virginia Waters (eighth, beaten six lengths, on debut in a Group 3 race). 11 had already achieved a Racing Post Rating of 100+. |
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PS I've no idea what happened to Switcher, my e/w fancy in the May Hill. She dropped away quickly in the last quarter mile and clearly didn't produce her form. And so much for my supposition that Lyric Of Light was there to give the powerful Godolphin team a line to the form. The lesson is: never underestimate a Mahmood Al Zarooni-trained juvenile on its first run in pattern company! He has managed to bring about huge improvement in Gamilati (ignoring her run in the Lowther), Discourse and now Lyric Of Light. (Not forgetting his handling of Blue Bunting, who showed hugely improved form to win the Guineas first time out this season....)
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Yep Mahmood is top draw. And I agree Discourse is there No.1 hope.
I still think Samitar is next years horse though and anything she does this season is a bonus. She has already proven she is dissimilar to her half sister Nijoom Dubai and will train on. Finishing 3rd in the May Hill is no bad thing either as proven by Speciosa. |
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I felt Fallen For You was the horse to take out of the May Hill - seemed a bit clueless when asked for an effort, and think she may have learnt plenty form that.
She may need further next year (maybe an Oaks or French Oaks filly) so not sure I'd be backing her for the Guineas. |
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I agree Uncle re Fallen For You. Clueless is exactly the right word. She looked almost all over the place in the latter part of the race. She is bound to learn a bundle from that experience. Does she have the breeding for 1m4f ?
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Fallen For You is certain to get 1m2f and very likely to get 1m4f: she's a three-parts sister to Star Of Gibraltar (1m4f winner, by Rock Of Gibraltar) and half-sister to Fallen In Love (stayed 1m4f, by Galileo) and Fallen Idol (1m2f winner, by Pivotal). The dam Fallen Star (by Brief Truce) was a 7f-8f winner, but the maternal grand-dam Rise And Fall (by Mill Reef) was a half-sister to 1m6f-1m7f winner Spring To Action and 1m4f winner Guards Brigade, so there is plenty of stamina further back in the pedigree.
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 Brilliant. Cheers James. |
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And her sire Dansili, although being a miler himself, is no detriment to her potential stamina (or class) as shown by the likes of the top class Harbinger and Rail Link as well as some other top stayers like Dandino and Illustrious Blue.
If he's crossed with a staying mare Dandino tends to get a stayer so 10f+ should be perfect for Fallen For You. |
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^ Should read Dansili in that last sentence, not Dandino
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