Horse Antepost

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14 Jun 11 00:14
Date Joined: 05 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 2,407 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
With several smart two-year-old fillies already having appeared and Royal Ascot fast approaching, I thought I’d start off a new thread on next year’s 1000 Guineas.

For what it’s worth here’s a list of the top fillies so far this season (up to 6 June, with their Racing Post Ratings and form figures):

101    Teolane (J.Bolger)        -411
98    Dozy (K.Ryan)            -11
98    Miss Work Of Art (R.Fahey)    -111
97    Pyman’s Theory (T.Dascombe)    -3151
97    Shumoos (B.Meehan)        -1
94    Princess Sinead (J.Harrington)    -22
94    Vocational (M.Johnston)        -122
94    Queens Revenge (T.Easterby)    -14
93    Maybe (A.P.O’Brien)        -1
(93)    Bubbly Ballerina (A.Bailey)    -231
93    Sweet Chilli (D.Barron)        -314
92    Judy The Beauty (W.A.Ward)    -11
92    Lily’s Angel (R.Fahey)        -1113
90    Falls Of Lora (M.Al Zarooni)    -21

These ratings, obviously, are just one person’s interpretation of past events, and I find it frankly absurd that Teolane (101) and Princess Sinead (94) are both rated higher than Maybe (93), who beat them so comprehensively first time out at Naas.  I’m sure that Maybe has the potential to maintain her superiority over Princess Sinead and Teolane, even allowing for the fact that the latter two fillies missed the break in that Naas maiden.

The only fillies generally quoted for next year's Guineas are Maybe, Teolane and Shumoos.  Maybe’s odds are in the narrow range 14/1 to 16/1 (Lads, Hills, VC, Power).  Teolane is an absurdly short 8/1 with one firm (Stan J), otherwise 14/1 (Lads, VC, Power), 16/1 (Tote) and a more realistic 20/1 (Hills).  Shumoos is just 14/1 (Power) and 16/1 (VC) in places, but widely available at 25/1 (Lads, Hills).

Teolane is much the most experienced of the three, having run three times, winning a 7f maiden at Leopardstown by a wide margin on her second start before comfortably following up in a Listed 6f event at Naas.  She is rated 101 after three races, which is quite a low figure for a serious Guineas contender at this stage of her career.  On the other hand, she has only won a maiden and a Listed race, so it would be hard to rate her any higher, and she certainly has the potential to achieve a higher rating once she contests Group races.  She is on schedule to run in the Gr.3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot later this week, where she could renew rivalry with Maybe, who beat her by nearly six lengths on debut.  Teolane is quite stoutly bred, being by Teofilo (a son of Galileo who was bred to get 10-12f, like his full siblings, but whose career was cut short after a brilliant two-year-old career) out of 10f winner Masnada, who has already produced 10-12f flat performer (and 2m hurdler) Malande and 8-10½f winner Duaiseoir.  She coped fine with the drop in trip to 6f in Listed company at Naas last time, having already won impressively over 7f previously, but there must be a doubt about her ability to see off smarter and speedier fillies over 6f in Group company.

Aidan O’Brien has a moderate record with his two-year-old fillies at Royal Ascot - some of his smartest fillies (Rumplestiltskin, Heart Shaped, Lillie Langtry) have been beaten in the Albany Stakes or Queen Mary Stakes in recent years - which tempers enthusiasm for Maybe’s chances in the Gr.3 Albany Stakes later this week.  Even so, regardless of whether or not she takes her chance at Ascot, there is no doubt that Maybe is a smart prospect who looks sure to make her mark in Group races sooner rather than later.  The Naas 6f maiden which she won so impressively last month has been contested by some smart fillies from Ballydoyle in recent years, notably Rumplestiltskin (2005), Heart Shaped (2006), Lillie Langtry (2009) and Together (2010).  All four of those fillies improved by at least a stone (using RPR’s as a guide) next time out: if Maybe improves by a similar margin she will surely have more than enough to win a Group race on her next outing.  A rating of 93 is exceptionally high for a juvenile filly from Ballydoyle first time out.  Looking further ahead, Maybe is by Galileo, a proven sire of Group 1-winning fillies over a mile plus (Lily Of The Valley, Lush Lashes, Golden Lilac, Nightime, Allegretto, Misty For Me) in addition to a couple of 1000 Guineas runners-up (Cuis Ghaire and Together).  Maybe’s dam Sumora (by Danehill) was speedy (her two wins came over 5f as a juvenile), but she seemed to stay 6f on turf (7f on the all-weather) and she’s a full sister to Fleeting Shadow (who won over 7f at two and stayed at least a mile, and was tried at up to 12f) and she’s closely related to Oaks winner Dancing Rain (by Danehill Dancer) and Captain Dancer (also by Danehill Dancer, stays 10f).  The Galileo/Danehill cross has proved highly successful, his most notable offspring from Danehill mares being Frankel, Teofilo, Roderic O'Connor, Cima De Triomphe, Golden Lilac, Gile Na Greine and Cuis Ghaire.  Maybe will probably get a mile, she certainly wasn't stopping at the end of 6f on debut, and with scope for considerable improvement to come she is likely to make an impact in top races later this season.

Shumoos made a spectacular start to her racing career, winning a Haydock 5f maiden by 4½ lengths from the very useful Frederick Engels (who won a decent event at Musselburgh next time by 5 lengths, RPR 103), with the rest a further 5 lengths and more behind.  She was quite green and ran keenly in the early stages, but showed an electric turn of foot to surge clear in the final furlong.  It was a remarkable debut performance, as her trainer Brian Meehan is not noted for first time out two-year-old winners, so she can be expected to make considerable improvement.  She is rated very highly and she reportedly carries maximum stable confidence in the Gr.2 Queen Mary Stakes, for which she is already as short as 7/4 favourite, later this week.  Shumoos is by Distorted Humor out of Wile Cat (by Storm Cat).  The dam is an unraced sister to Cat Fighter (winner of three of her ten career starts, including the Gr.2 La Canada Stakes over 9f at Santa Anita) and Stalking Shadow (winner of four races over 7-8f), and she's also half-sister to top-class sprinter Ishiguru (by Danzig).  The sire Distorted Humor (winner of several Gr.2 and Gr.3 races over 7-8f in the States) has been a successful sire in the States: his best progeny (Any Given Saturday, Commentator, Flower Alley and Funny Cide) have all been 9-10f performers, while his best known offspring in Europe are Pathfork (winner of last year's Gr.1 National Stakes over 7f) and Gaudeamus.  There is every reason to think that Shumoos will eventually get a mile and at this ridiculously early stage I would say that she and Maybe are the best long-term 1000 Guineas prospects we have seen in the juvenile fillies division so far this season and I have backed them both at 33/1.

There are naturally plenty of lightly raced maiden winners (and once-raced maidens) with untapped potential, and more will appear in the coming weeks and months, but nothing has really impressed me so far apart from Maybe and Shumoos.  Of the other fillies in the list above, Dozy won the Hilary Needler Trophy at Beverley last time and has been declared to run in the Queen Mary; she’s speedy (by Exceed And Excel) and doesn’t appeal as a long-term Guineas prospect.  Miss Work Of Art, a daughter of first-season sire Dutch Art, is unbeaten in three starts and won the Marygate Stakes (Listed) at York last time; the owner is reportedly keen to run her in the Gr.2 Cherry Hinton Stakes, but it remains to be seen whether she is just a precocious early sprinting type or whether she can really progress.  The sprint-bred filly Pyman’s Theory won the National Stakes (Listed) last time but had previously been outpointed by Miss Work Of Art at York.  Princess Sinead was put in her place by Maybe (on debut in a Naas maiden) and then by Teolane (in a Listed race at Naas) and needs to make considerable improvement.  Similar comments apply to Vocational, Queens Revenge, Bubbly Ballerina, Sweet Chilli and Lily’s Angel, all of whom have been beaten by Miss Work Of Art (at York) and/or Dozy (at Beverley).  Judy The Beauty is highly regarded by Wesley Ward and reportedly heads for a showdown with Teolane (and possibly Maybe) in the Albany Stakes later this week: she has shown speed and the ability to quicken in her two races to date (over 4½f at Keeneland on dirt and 5f at Chantilly on turf), but it remains to be seen whether she will prove equally effective over 6f.  Falls Of Lora is potentially of some interest as a long-term Guineas prospect, as she is bred to get a mile: she won her maiden at Doncaster impressively by 5 lengths and is entered in both the Albany Stakes and Chesham Stakes this week at Royal Ascot.

Well, that’s my take on the Guineas picture at this early stage.  Does anyone fancy anything apart from the three fillies that currently head the antepost market?
Pause Switch to Standard View 1000 Guineas (2012)
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Report The Headmaster May 4, 2012 1:44 PM BST
Nayarra also a good result for is Laugh Out Loud!
Report harry callaghan May 4, 2012 2:58 PM BST
headmaster i really like the filly for the long term and may have a few sheckles on her to place, she looks a real nice prospect who is impeccably bred and i think bolger isn't running her for the day out...agree she will be better over further but think she is a good long shot not without hope and bolger can and tends to have them ready to go.
Report Millerracing67 May 4, 2012 4:30 PM BST
Maybe is my big anti-p hope for the wkend, cant see past her.
The boys in blue will prob chase her home.
Of the bigger prices, i had a small interest on Diala at 33s on here, covers my stake on Maybe.
Diala`s form with Lyric of light reads well, tho it is still only maiden form, she could be anything.
Report The Headmaster May 4, 2012 5:07 PM BST
NEWMARKET (Updated: 16:38) Good to soft
  (GoingStick: 6.9 (Stand Side 6.8; Centre 6.8; Far Side 7.0) on
  Friday at 15:30)
  Stalls: Stand Side Course
  Stalls: Qipco 2000 Guineas Centre
  Stalls: 12f Far Side
  Stalls: Remainder Stand Side
  The re-positioning of the bend has increased the distance of the
  12f races by 12m.
  Dry overnight.
  Friday Largely dry but possible light afternoon showers 1-2mm.
  Saturday & Sunday Mainly dry 10C.
Report mightymoyes May 4, 2012 6:41 PM BST
when is ger lyons goin to make the decision on lightning pearl?
Report elisjohn May 4, 2012 8:59 PM BST
read somewhere today, that lyons will be sending the filly over and will wait until last minute before making decision
Report jamesp May 5, 2012 8:39 AM BST
LIGHTENING PEARL is almost 100% certain to run, according to connections and is overpriced at around 25/1.

MOONSTONE MAGIC, as predicted, is starting to drift (out to 11.0, last matched at 21.0) and faces a stiff task if the ground continues to dry out.  DIALA, by contrast, is holding her place in the market at around 16/1, after Graham Cunningham tipped her on the Morning Line, but I doubt if we'll see a plunge on her and she may drift back out again (the vibes from the stable are rather lukewarm, they're happy with her but she's taken a while to come to hand).
Report jamesp May 5, 2012 9:01 AM BST
MOONSTONE MAGIC is very weak now (15.0 available to back, 17.0 to lay, to small money).  LYRIC OF LIGHT too is weak in the market (7/1 with bookmakers, she has drifted to double those odds on here), with DISCOURSE now the favoured Godolphin filly.  The market is currently pointing towards MAYBE and MASHOORA.  Unless today's races indicate a draw bias, I think that MAYBE is well drawn in the centre and she is likely to attract the professional money tomorrow.
Report harry callaghan May 5, 2012 5:39 PM BST
discourse very weak now 14.5 to back...
Report jamesp May 5, 2012 7:09 PM BST
Yep, just the usual fluctuations, it's just small money being traded at the moment, the market won't take off until tomorrow afternoon.
Report JOCI Club May 6, 2012 10:45 AM BST
The Couch does a video preview of this race on the Racing Post website. However, I couldn't concentrate, as the opening shot shows the Couch with his finger up his hooter. He retrieves something nasty, then proceeds to roll it in his fingers on camera.

Didn't hear a word he said after that.
Report Graeme83 May 6, 2012 12:33 PM BST
Regardless of what i've backed, i think Maybe will win today. If she is 100% - which we don't get told as we only fund the sport - i'm guessing that she's ready and will therefore win. Obviously something could come out and suprises the 99.999% who don't have inside information. If there's to be a slightly suprise winner i suppose something like Diala could fall into that category for obvious reasons.
Report Graeme83 May 6, 2012 12:41 PM BST
1 - maybe

2- diala

3 - laugh out loud
Report GoldCupWinner May 6, 2012 1:17 PM BST
Discourse or moonstone magic for me. Dependent on how the ground looks like it's riding.
Report zilzal1 May 6, 2012 1:25 PM BST
Been a good thread, good luck to all(although better hopefully for those on Lyric and DiallaLaugh)
Report cruise d May 6, 2012 1:38 PM BST
Good luck all. Think I may back Maybe today but I really hope Nayarra runs a cracker. Graeme I'm sure she'll beat Laugh Out Loud so I hope you are right in that she finishes third. Lightening Pearl is my only other AP bet that made it (I only dabble AP) hope she runs well.
Report Graeme83 May 6, 2012 1:59 PM BST
cruise are you confident that nayarra will run a big race ?
Report cruise d May 6, 2012 2:31 PM BST
I believe she is better than LOL. She is incredibly sepculative but a mile is probably her minimum trip and it should be a bit of a test. I was pleased with her trial and I see her running a similar kind of race to Trumpet Major yesterday. If they go off reasonably quickly and the race doesn't turn into a sprint I think she can place.
Report Graeme83 May 6, 2012 2:43 PM BST
Well good luck with your horse. Mick Chanon likes her obviously. I think from that race Lillys Angel is the one i'd have kept in mind.
Report cruise d May 6, 2012 3:23 PM BST
Starscope was the other one for me from the Nell Gwynn for me that looked like it might come on. Hope Gray Pearl is OK.
Report jamesp May 6, 2012 3:46 PM BST
How on earth did that happen?  I give up!
Report Graeme83 May 6, 2012 3:47 PM BST
The money spoke
Report eric_morris May 6, 2012 3:47 PM BST
Great thread lads thanks for putting me on the winner same as last year with Blue Bunting. jamesp book smashed to smithereens unfortunately, the 1000 is v unreliable these days.
Report harry callaghan May 6, 2012 3:51 PM BST
well just shows you how unpredictable fillies can performance and an absolute skinner to most..godolphin horses are in very disappointing form...not a yard from either horse.
Report geoff m May 6, 2012 3:58 PM BST
Unbelievable performance in what appeared a decent class guineas.
Not the fact it won but the way it won was hard to swallow & the form book needs throwing thro the window.
Report eric_morris May 6, 2012 3:59 PM BST
21 pages did the winner get a mention?
Report jamesp May 6, 2012 4:00 PM BST
Shame you didn't back the winner, eric.
Report eric_morris May 6, 2012 4:06 PM BST
i take it that's a no. Must be a record length for a thread where the winner wasn't mentioned other than in the runners list or news item pasted.
Report sintonian May 6, 2012 4:07 PM BST
20 mins of rain before they eventually started.

Fingers crossed for Gray Pearl.

No one on this thread appeared to back the winner?

The less said the better! LaughCry
Report jamesp May 6, 2012 4:08 PM BST
eric_morris: "Great thread lads thanks for putting me on the winner same as last year with Blue Bunting."
Er, did I miss something?  Where exactly did you state (in advance of the race) that you'd backed Homecoming Queen?  Well, at least you give us all a laugh, your aftertiming is absolutely priceless Laugh
Report harry callaghan May 6, 2012 4:10 PM BST
with regret gray pearl is dead
Report John.W.Henry. May 6, 2012 4:25 PM BST
I suppose you have to say she was a bit of a good thing in that nursery of 70 something.. rofl..

Report Poppydog. May 6, 2012 4:31 PM BST
Not 100% sure but reports the 1st and 2nd were the only horses not put in the stalls,
when poor Gray Pearl went down. 
The rest in there a long time, while theses two, strolled around out back.

2nd time round with all the hold-ups, Homecoming Queen and Starscope, went in last yet again,
while the rest of the field were in the stalls, some for several minutes.

Probably just coincidence.
Report harry callaghan May 6, 2012 5:07 PM BST
I think its a fair point many fillies ran to bad to be true and for these 2 to be 1st and second home and so many running poorly the race needs to be treated with caution from a form point of view anyway.
Report jamesp May 6, 2012 5:20 PM BST
Aidan O'Brien was interviewed during the delay and said that some of the fillies might be adversely affected by having gone into the stalls and then taken out again, because their heart rate would have shot up in anticipation of racing and they would have had difficulty getting to that peak again the second time.  The winner and Starscope were not affected, as they were about to load when the incident occurred.  It's hard to say whether it affected the result, as the winner was in a different league.  Like many, I assumed beforehand that Homecoming Queen was running on her own merits but after a couple of furlongs I became convinced that she was there as a pacemaker for Maybe.  I couldn't believe it when she quickened away from them again.  Clearly the winner (a half-sister to Dylan Thomas) has progressed at a rate of knots this spring.  The doubts concerning O'Brien's preparation of his 1000 Guineas runners have resurfaced after this reverse for Maybe backers.  The winner had already had two runs this season and clearly held a fitness advantage.  O'Brien must have been convinced that Maybe was spot-on for today's race, and she certainly wasn't weakening up the hill, but there's nothing like race-fitness.

Sorry to hear about Gray Pearl.  A sad day for Raymond Mould and Charlie Hills.
Report sintonian May 6, 2012 5:24 PM BST
Do you think they could be aiming her for the Oaks, James?

I dont think we will know how all the horses were affected by the stalls incident until they run again, but it does seem like there maybe something in it.

Godolphin horses were last two home.
Report eric_morris May 6, 2012 5:26 PM BST
nice after timing on the winner jamesp.
Report sintonian May 6, 2012 5:29 PM BST
The Going is now officially SOFT, btw. So the shower beforehand certainly had an affect on the going.
Report jamesp May 6, 2012 5:40 PM BST
No aftertiming from me, eric - I've not made any claims about having backed the winner.  I don't know anyone who backed the winner, to be honest.  But clearly someone fancied her, as she was well backed throughout the day (from 33/1 to 20/1).  Some people were evidently convinced that a low draw was an advantage, as Jim Bolger's filly was also well backed.

I think the rain just before the race helped the fillies get through what would otherwise have been quite sticky, holding ground.  The winning time was quite a bit faster than the 2000 Guineas.
Report jair1970 May 6, 2012 5:40 PM BST
Eric goes broke, takes it out on genuine race fans.

Class act that fella.
Report jair1970 May 6, 2012 5:42 PM BST
Bolger's filly took the Pricewise money, james.

We all remember how Eric backed Blue Bunting last year, don't we? Don't we? *tumbleweed*
Report sintonian May 6, 2012 5:49 PM BST
Spot on Jair. He posted bets on Gamilati,Discourse,Maybe and Lyric of Light,then loses his cash and rather than taking it on the chin (like the rest of us) he starts attacking others. Real class act as you say.
Report jamesp May 6, 2012 6:22 PM BST
That makes three unexpected results in the last four years, if you accept that the victories of Homecoming Queen, Blue Bunting and Ghanaati were all 'unexpected' in the sense that it was hard to seriously fancy any of them on their two-year-old form.  Hard to know what to make of this new 'trend'.  The 1000 Guineas used to be a great 'trends race' (with Special Duty, Natagora, Finsceal Beo, Attraction and Russian Rhythm all well fancied to win the Guineas on the basis of smart juvenile form in the last ten years) but I will be treading a bit more carefully in the coming months.  Back to the drawing board...
Report eric_morris May 6, 2012 7:18 PM BST
Looking forward to next years thread already ... if you are a layer.
Report elisjohn May 6, 2012 7:39 PM BST
surely certainty for irish 1000
Report push May 6, 2012 7:43 PM BST
If the winners of the One Thousand Guineas , did not have the best form in the race, they quite often had the best pedigrees, i mean Homecoming Queen , a half sister to Dylan Thomas , and a Champion 2yo filly in Queens Logic, wow it is so easy !!!
Report sewter lives again May 6, 2012 7:46 PM BST

UP could be the one for the Irish 1000
Report PHS May 6, 2012 7:53 PM BST
Makes you think how good Queens Logic could have been Sad
Report Graeme83 May 6, 2012 9:51 PM BST
There's nothing that the punter can do. The money was there for the winner and nobody knew if it was the real deal or just people going for an each way bet, or simply just a similar gamble to the one on power yesterday. The O'briens & co who were building up Maybe are the ones who knew who had the real chance of winning. I had a fiver on the winner at 20/1 as caution, and lost in the race over all so it's certainly not after timing. However i didn't even cheer the horse. I dislike the trainer and their whole operation.  If someone like Hanon has two good horses he will say if there's much separating them. If O'brien is in a similar situation he keeps it hush and happily lets people tear their vouchers up. It leaves a bad taste in racing when well to do multi millionaires always wait until the big occasion to land big gambles. There's a crass smugness about it. Bastards.
Report sintonian May 6, 2012 10:08 PM BST
I think a lot of the bets were probably to do with Ryan Moore riding aswell, like the ones on Power.

It might not be long before he is Ballydoyles jock.
Report cruise d May 6, 2012 10:15 PM BST
Unless junior O'brien starts cutting off limbs he can't stay on th flat too much longer surely? Moore will be stable jockey next season you'd think?
Report PHS May 6, 2012 11:51 PM BST
I think they seem happy enough using Moore when they bring horses over here, and their regular jockey's when back in Ireland. Why change!
Report elisjohn May 7, 2012 6:41 AM BST
graeame i hate them as well, and i really think most people do as well,
Report jamesp May 7, 2012 8:39 AM BST
I honestly don't think that there was anything underhand about the gamble on Homecoming Queen.  But I do wish that they had given Maybe a run in a prep race!  O'Brien's comment afterwards: "We knew that Maybe was having her first run and when the ground got slow fitness came in."  When you don't know, months in advance, whether or not an O'Brien-trained Guineas filly is going to run in a prep race beforehand, it makes it very difficult to get involved ante-post.  I backed Maybe for the Guineas way back at the end of May last year (at 33/1) and was hoping all through the winter that she would run in a trial.  The other factor that went against ante-post punters was the ground - there was simply no way of predicting until a couple of weeks before the race that the ground would turn out to be so testing, and it certainly put paid to the likes of the Godolphin pair.  It made race-fitness absolutely critical.  The unfortunate half-hour delay probably had an affect as well.
Report sintonian May 7, 2012 9:29 AM BST
Yep he certainly trains his fillies differently from the colts when getting them fit for the classics. Both his 1k winners have had prep runs where as the colts win first time out. Lesson learnt!!

I thought with Maybe, given that she was a perfect 5/5, that she would be 100% ready. But perhaps not.

I dont think or see why there was anything cynical to take from Homecoming Queens run either, she was race fit and won last time out, all of which was info available to us punters. But it's quite clear she improved a stack over the winter which I think Graeme is saying AOB could have mentioned in the press, for a change!

A bit like Treasure Beach last season, he ran in handicaps at 2 aswell!
Report push May 7, 2012 9:35 AM BST
HQ beat Fire Lily in the trial, Fire Lily was beaten less than 2 lengths by Maybe in a Grp 1 race, then Fire Lily went on to be 2nd in a French Grp1 over 1 mile, HQ had also won a listed race on soft ground over 1 mile, so she did not have to improve than much to be close to Maybe, at 25-1 she was worth having a saver on for the 1000G.
Report bazzar May 7, 2012 3:18 PM BST
Aiden is only an employee, he has to do the bidding of his employers as regards allowing info getting out to the wider public, there was a case many years ago where the racing authorities fined an owner for telling people in a radio interview, that his horse would win the Chester Cup the following day, the horses name was CORN BIN, I think.
Imagine if you owned horses and most punters knew before you did, that the horse was expected to win, as things stand we can make educated guesses.
Report bazzar May 7, 2012 3:26 PM BST
RYAN MOORE, is not sought because he is a GREAT jockey, but because he has had it drummed into him by his father that secrecy MUST be maintained, hence his hangdog look when interviewed, a conscience is surely his bugbear, totally lacking in personality or humour.
His holdup style has cost him more than 100 winners, 30 to 40 of which would have been group winners.
Report Masterminded May 7, 2012 4:18 PM BST
Deary me what a clueless statement. Ryan Moore is the best jockey around. People are who they are why should he change his personality to please the likes of you.
Report Mr Mischief May 7, 2012 4:37 PM BST
The fact that he's a miserable sod is irrelevant but Ryan Moore is most defintely not the best jockey around. His judgement in big races often lets him down. No coincidence that Sir Micheal Stoute's slump has coincided with Moore as his retained
Report bosra shame May 7, 2012 4:46 PM BST
You are the most negative t w a t on here eric. I don't know why you bother posting anymore as you are a laughing stock.
Report Masterminded May 7, 2012 5:01 PM BST
LOL deary me I've heard it all. Is that why despite being retained for Stoute he's still leading jock this season and also won a classic? Clueless..
Report eric_morris May 7, 2012 9:13 PM BST
This thread is the laughing stock Bosra Sham. 21 pages and the winner wasnt considered, that is a fact you can call it negative if you want clown.
Report roobuck May 7, 2012 9:23 PM BST
When: 26 Feb 12 08:05

Dark Destroyer is right I would like to make it clear I have covered Gamilati 20/1 and Discourse 12/1 with Maybe. Strongly believe Al Zarooni is rejuvenating Godolphin's fortunes especially in the fillies department this trainer can become HRAC II.

I believe the Zarooni fillies filled the last two places. You mock other's input on this thread but yours' were hardly inspiring were they?
Report bosra shame May 7, 2012 9:39 PM BST
Start up your own thread for the 2013 Guineas then Eric. Trust me , I would read it   Laugh
Report cryoftruth May 7, 2012 11:07 PM BST
Maybe the delay and the soft ground will show the performance of the winner to be a bit of a fluke; it didn't look like it to me.

I cannot have Maybe making up this distance on the winner over a mile no matter what happens. I reckon the winner is a very good filly with give in the ground.
Report jair1970 May 7, 2012 11:31 PM BST
Maybe the delay and the soft ground will be adequate reason for the poor performance of so many fancied runners.

2 things that cannot be factored into ante-post predictions.

Oh and fillies.  Unreliable at the best of times Laugh
Report pipedreamer May 8, 2012 1:27 AM BST
Icant REACH anybody on here that knows anything,Royal Ascot approaching?,looking there for next years classic winners?.how many Royal Ascot 2 year old winners went on to win an English Classic the following year?.Out of the last 152 classics run how many winners,TRY TWO!!!!!!!,YOU PEOPLE KNOW NOTHING,WHY DO YOU CONSTANTLY LISTEN TO MORONS AND START EVERYTHING OF WITH STUPID ASSUMPTIONS?.
Try doing your own research.
Cant wait for the Royal Hunt Cup,another sage will come on T.V. like last year and tell you that you need a group horse to win it.Question,how many Hunt winners have gone on on to Group glory?,go on have a guess?.
The world is full of people giving you the wrong info,don't listen to them.
Do your own research instead of,ANALYSING SOMEBODY ELSES ANALYSIS!!!!.Think for yourself.Discuss?
Report pipedreamer May 8, 2012 1:27 AM BST
Icant REACH anybody on here that knows anything,Royal Ascot approaching?,looking there for next years classic winners?.how many Royal Ascot 2 year old winners went on to win an English Classic the following year?.Out of the last 152 classics run how many winners,TRY TWO!!!!!!!,YOU PEOPLE KNOW NOTHING,WHY DO YOU CONSTANTLY LISTEN TO MORONS AND START EVERYTHING OF WITH STUPID ASSUMPTIONS?.
Try doing your own research.
Cant wait for the Royal Hunt Cup,another sage will come on T.V. like last year and tell you that you need a group horse to win it.Question,how many Hunt winners have gone on on to Group glory?,go on have a guess?.
The world is full of people giving you the wrong info,don't listen to them.
Do your own research instead of,ANALYSING SOMEBODY ELSES ANALYSIS!!!!.Think for yourself.Discuss?
Report cryoftruth May 8, 2012 10:21 AM BST

I think you won the Hunt Cup before going on to group glory??
Report BritBronco May 8, 2012 3:40 PM BST
Cambridgeshire, not Hunt Cup
Report The Headmaster May 8, 2012 3:46 PM BST
Just because no-one's mentioned the winner it doesn't mean that everyone on this thread has a) not backed her or b) lost on the race.

Does it? Confused
Report sintonian May 8, 2012 5:00 PM BST
Aftertimers. Dont they just turn your stomach.
Report The Headmaster May 8, 2012 5:15 PM BST
Not if they're honest, sint, no.

I dropped my conkers all over the 2000, or does after-timing only work one way? Laugh
Report The Headmaster May 8, 2012 5:17 PM BST
It was only when Betfair's Barry Ord mentioned, on ATR, that the top price on Homecoming Queen ante-post was 390 that I thought to myself....hmmm, that number sounds familiar - better go back and check.....
Report pipedreamer May 8, 2012 5:40 PM BST
Sintonian,who are you referring to?.Atertiming?,a ridiculous word,so, dont bother to buy the Timeform annual?,cos they analyse horses AFTER a race.Oh and dont read the analysis comments in the racing post cos its aftertiming?.
if you dont do an autopsy on your bets after a race ,how are you going to learn anything and change?.dont discuss anything after a race ,cos its "aftertiming"?.
As for "Backfitting",when you cross a road, your actually "backfitting",using previous data of when you crossed a road since you were a else do you learn anything?.
I'm going to "backfit a stat i dicovered after last years Hunt Cup,winner in 3 the last 5 years.
Now anybody going to tell me not to look at it come the day?,i mean its "backfitting"?.
Report The Headmaster May 8, 2012 5:46 PM BST
Your 'crossing the road' analogy is quite apt for this year's National, pd, as the statstwats had a bit of a car crash I'm afraid... Sad
Report bazzar May 8, 2012 6:14 PM BST
Masterminded, I refer you to his rides on PRESVIS, tootling along in last and people telling each other he was unlucky when he lost narrowly, as many losses as wins, when a ride just 2 lengths closer to the pace would have won him more races, 4 lengths nearer, much, much easier for a horse who gives every time.
Moore makes a fetish of leaving the stalls last, very annoying to me, the first time I see him leave the stall first in a very long time he pulverises the field, but he will NEVER learn, at least LESTER learned from his mistakes, as does McCoy.
Report Lance in France May 8, 2012 9:16 PM BST
Can I claim a sort of victory from my copied and pasted post below.  How to get it so very wrong and still be right!

[[b]i]Lance in France
28 Feb 12 09:06
14 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 205 | Blogger: Lance in France's blog
Nah Eric. Shumoos was the only bet I had. And it was win not ew. Written off a long time ago. To make matters worse I continually backed her in the individual races (Royal Ascot etc) and finally divorced myself from her the race just before she won. Not scared to admit when I lose on here....unlike some. The only interest I have on the 1000 guineas is I have backed AOB to win either 4 or 5 classics this year so I guess my colours are nailed to Maybe at present, or Wading whom I have backed for the Oaks.[/i]


Only 3 more to go.....

And for the record I have enjoyed jamesps views and analysis (and everyone else who contributes on here bar one)for many years and won't stop wanting or reading a thread on the 1000 Guineas 2013 just because the winner this year was overlooked.
Report eric_morris May 8, 2012 9:40 PM BST
Report Masterminded May 9, 2012 7:41 AM BST
His rides on Presvis? The horse nobody else can win on? His strike rate on Presvis is pretty bloody good if you ask me. Poor example if you are talking about this season it's clear the horse isn't as good as he once was.
Report sintonian May 9, 2012 9:20 AM BST
Im referring to you Pipedreamer and Eric Morose.

It's no good telling people ''YOU KNOW NOTHING'' once the result is in. Why not put that opinion forwards with the reasons why before hand? Keep it nice and simple.

It is very hard to respect someones opinion when they are all wise and knowing after the event. We can all do that mate!
Report The Headmaster May 9, 2012 9:57 AM BST
Absolutely Sint  Silly

Pour Moi, this was a victory for book-management (that phrase again eric).  I didn't fancy HQ but every horse has a price and her's was evidently wrong, at one stage anyway.

Eric, should we both get our 1000 books out and compare length and girth?  I'll bat for this thread, you can bat for the others.
Report sintonian May 9, 2012 12:36 PM BST
Report bazzar May 9, 2012 3:53 PM BST
Masterminded, for some reason others who have ridden Presvis, ride it in exactly the same way, perhaps it is the instruction from the trainer, but in a lot of cases the die is cast and this must be the way he MUST be ridden, only Lester would have tried something different, MOORE will NEVER try something different, by the way have you re-viewed ALL of
his rides on Presvis?
Whilst you are at it re-view ALL races on KINGSGATE NATIVE, before Stoute got him and
when ridden by MOORE, this is a sprinter.
Report pipedreamer May 9, 2012 6:35 PM BST
Sintonian,the reason i answered this post is becaause i couldnt stand reading all the "assumptions" posted on here,i.e."hes a group horse running in a handicap",and punters who dont seem to realise the world of difference between a 10 runner group race and a big field cavalry charge handicap on a straight course,like Botti's horse in the Lincoln.
Dinners ready so to be getting along with,heres a question,which beaten fav in the Lincoln went on to win the now Juddmonte?.
Report zilzal1 May 9, 2012 6:41 PM BST
The "Stun Gun" horse, its stable mate Cacoethes was about 4-9 for the race
Report roobuck May 9, 2012 6:49 PM BST
Sorry, but how did we get from the 1000 Guineas to the Royal Hunt Cup? And runners in the Lincoln going on to the Juddmonte?

Time for wine, hopefully things will become clearer Grin
Report elisjohn May 9, 2012 7:03 PM BST
yes roobuck, ive a glass of claret in my hand
Report tinkler May 9, 2012 7:25 PM BST
Il de chypre think it made all . The stun gun thing was surely nonsense Zil?
Report elisjohn May 9, 2012 7:33 PM BST
great era of horse racing then
Report elisjohn May 9, 2012 7:34 PM BST
ps loved the harwood stable
Report zilzal1 May 9, 2012 7:44 PM BST
Its probably its main claim to fame though, fabricated or notLaugh
Report tinkler May 9, 2012 8:19 PM BST
Guy harwood was a great trainer some of his horses I can remember- Rousillon, Tou-agori-mou and Dancing Brave (was the Arc he won the best 1 1/2m race ever).
Report elisjohn May 9, 2012 8:33 PM BST
warning one of my fav
Report pipedreamer May 10, 2012 10:34 AM BST
Roo,i got to the Hunt Cup because iwas explaining assumptions that people have,i.e.looking to royal ascot for next years classic winner and looking at group horse form to find the winner of big field handicaps.All flawed thinking.
As for the stun gun i can testify that on watching the meeting on tv that day i could see Royal Gait was diqualified, Cauthen won the next,i looked at the next race and saw the 50-1 shot[Jacaranda?]owned by a guy with an amazing win percentage at R.A.
missing that one i went to the betting shop to back the next one Ile De Chypre.I'm not for one mo suggesting that anybody was up to no good,i'm merely reporting what happened.
You must remember that Royal Gait went on to win the Champion Hurdle .He won at Kempton i believe,and strangely veered sharply left in the straight.He jumped the last at Chelters and ducked violently left,giving Graham MCcourt quite a start,still he was getting used to such things as he had another winner [that year i beleive] that hung so badly right that he only just managed to scramble over the last,i found this all very odd indeed.
Report bazzar May 10, 2012 1:56 PM BST
If a copy of the Ascot Gold Cup, (BBC version) could be reviewed, although very
difficult to spot, because STARKEY pulled on his right rein which caused his ride to bump
ROYAL GAIT which in turn bumped into Harwoods 2nd string and the jockey was caused to bump the rail, strangely the stewards disqualified ROYAL GAIT and gave the race to SADEEM, it
happened just as the director ordered a camera change, to follow the race to the line,
the jockey NEVER admitted his error!!!!!!!!
Report roobuck May 10, 2012 5:55 PM BST
As far as I remember pipedreamer, nobody looked at Maybe simply because she was a RA winner. She had the best 2yo form, was consistent and a worthy favourite. A few had her @ 33s in their book before she even ran at Ascot. I think you are bringing up the stat as a reason NOT to have backed her which, while is a reasonable enough argument, in this context it is completely different.
Report ilikewavingatbuses May 11, 2012 10:42 AM BST
epic seeth from ericLaugh

good thread lads, winner almost impossible to find, a ridiculous performance to boot winning better than frankel did!

this is why i dont bet ante post, u do all the work and then this happens.

its a tough game, not that eric would know, never backed a loser to my knowledge and wins '6 figures' on every betLaugh

cant wait for the capt chris rebuttalLaugh

Report unclepuncle June 2, 2012 7:19 AM BST
unclepuncle 07 Aug 11 14:59
Was - the most expensive yearling in Europe won very tidily on her debut at the Curragh today. Like Miniskirt might be more of a 10f+ filly next year but yet another one to throw into the mix.

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