Horse Antepost
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Apologies if someone has already done one of these threads - I couldn't see one. All trends are for last 10 years unless otherwise stated:
Lets start with some abolutes:
Won a chase over at least 3 miles - 100% (and indeed, every winner since at least 1988)
Aged between 8 and 12 - 100% (and every winner since 1978: only 3 8yos, 4 12yos since 1978)
Ran 4-6 times in season - 100% (only Miinehoma since 1988 ran less than 4 times)
Carried 11-1 or less - 100% (only 2 carried 11-0 + in last 20 runnings)
Appying these trends to the top 70 currently entered, 51 runners are eliminated.
Had a run within last 50 days - 100% (18 ex last 20 ran within 36 days)
Had not finished out of the frame or pulled up in a previous GN - 100% (Amberleigh House was 3rd, and also brought down, 2 others fell previousl)
Managed at least a place in one of previous 3 runs - 100% (allows us to eliminate some woefully out of form old-timers)
Had won a maximum of one race that season - 90% (Exception was Lord Gyllene 10 years ago)
Applying these trends to the remaining 19 horses, we are left with a shortlist of just 6:
Royal Auclair
Dun Doire
Slim Pickings
Silver Birch
Mckelvey
Sonevafushi
Of these, Royal Auclair has too much weight for my liking really and Sonevafushi has never actually won a decent race, which all previous winners had. That leaves 4 - you can do the rest yourselves!
Lets start with some abolutes:
Won a chase over at least 3 miles - 100% (and indeed, every winner since at least 1988)
Aged between 8 and 12 - 100% (and every winner since 1978: only 3 8yos, 4 12yos since 1978)
Ran 4-6 times in season - 100% (only Miinehoma since 1988 ran less than 4 times)
Carried 11-1 or less - 100% (only 2 carried 11-0 + in last 20 runnings)
Appying these trends to the top 70 currently entered, 51 runners are eliminated.
Had a run within last 50 days - 100% (18 ex last 20 ran within 36 days)
Had not finished out of the frame or pulled up in a previous GN - 100% (Amberleigh House was 3rd, and also brought down, 2 others fell previousl)
Managed at least a place in one of previous 3 runs - 100% (allows us to eliminate some woefully out of form old-timers)
Had won a maximum of one race that season - 90% (Exception was Lord Gyllene 10 years ago)
Applying these trends to the remaining 19 horses, we are left with a shortlist of just 6:
Royal Auclair
Dun Doire
Slim Pickings
Silver Birch
Mckelvey
Sonevafushi
Of these, Royal Auclair has too much weight for my liking really and Sonevafushi has never actually won a decent race, which all previous winners had. That leaves 4 - you can do the rest yourselves!
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Replies: 231
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Ilnamar - on what basis did you eliminate Point Barrow?
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Homer Wells seems to apply too, but not in your shortlist!!!!!
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Point Barrow has had too many runs to qualify under this trends analysis. Not sure what Gallant Approach and Ossmoses have done wrong though.
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Ah, they haven't had enough runs - I take it back.
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Hommer Wells has won two races already and it clearly states that is a no-no for Aintree glory. How dare you all question Ilnamar!
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Yes it looks like the analysis is flawless, unfortunately.
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Flawless, I tell you, FLAWLESS!
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Actually no it's not. What about Jack High?
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I'm wondering if Taaffe has done another Kicking King on us re Slim Pickings. Seems a remarkable amount of interest on here considering he's called the horse a non-runner.
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It's all the Ilnamar lemmings I expect.
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The Ilnamar lemmings are charging in head first, Atavus. Hopefully they wont be too upset when Jack High dots up.
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Yes I hope they didn't all lay that one before I helpfully pointed out his perfect fit with the Ilnamar stats.
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Have any horses in the Atavus portflio passed the savagery of the Ilnamar test?
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Yes, though my portfolio only consists of three throwaway bets as I have no idea what is required to win the race. Silver Birch is one of them, I backed Dun Doire to trade, and Ursumman is my other fancy. What about you?
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Of Ilnamar's I'm on Slim Pickings for chunks and McKelvey. I like Silver Birch but missed the price and also had a decent whack at Ursumman but I fear the worst there. It would take me an age to write out the rest of the horses I've backed but if any of the current front four go in I'm done for :(
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very interesting thread. what about simon? 2 many wins disqualify him but notice he hasnt been put up for latest win?
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He has gone up but the weights can't be altered once they've been published.
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Nice of them to tell the Sporting Life Ursumman was a definite runner a week ago :-(
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Must have been one for the stable lads as you wouldn't think JP needs the money. Cheers Boots or Clogs or whatever your daft name is.
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Won a chase over at least 3 miles - 100% (and indeed, every winner since at least 1988)
Strictly not accurate as Red Marauder won a 3m hurdle but not a 3m chase. However, I always write off the 2001 GN for stats purposes because 14 of the horses were hampered at the Canal Turn or the 19th. |
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very interesting thread. what about simon? 2 many wins disqualify him but notice he hasnt been put up for latest win?
The weights don't go up for the GN (unless of course the top-weight is removed). |
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When did Taaffe say SP was a non-runner please HM? These Irish trainers talk out of their arses half the time.
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It was an interview on ATR a few days after Cheltenham. Said neither he or the owners were keen.
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Thought I'd add my input too... Here's what I posted on a different thread...
Had a look through the field and applied the usual trends (age, 3m+ wins, class, weight, breeding etc... ) and quite liked the look of a few: Simon - carries 10-11, has five chase wins over 3m (including chases worth 57k and 35k) and no falls in his career. He's in the right age group (8-11) and has been trained for this race, bypassing Cheltenham. Also will be in the right price range come the day of the race (as in fancied) McKevely - carries 10-4, again he had five chase wins over 3m, most significantly the 33f Summer National at Uttoxeter on GF going worth 45k. Does have two UR's to his name, but might be a lively outsider. Naunton Brook - another lively outsider that meets several trends. Carries only 10-4, has six 3m+ chase wins to his credit including one over 32f and no falls. It is possible to question if Naunton Brook has the 'class' required to win the race, but, trainer Nigel Twiston-Davis won the race in 1998 and 2002 and ear-marked the horse as a certain runner, who needs the a testing trip and jumps like a stag! Also, and maybe most importantly of all, Naunton Brook has a 'double letter' in his name like many previous winners! (2003 Montys Pass, 2002 Bindaree, 2000 Papillon, 1999 Bobbyjo, 1998 Earth Summit, 1997 Lord Gyllene and 1994 Miinnehoma) Of the others I picked out Point Barrow has strong shouts on the trends (no falls and five 3m+ wins) but I hate backing horses 'short' in the National! I'm against Brewleys Berry, although I'm a big stable fan, because of a lack off chasing experience. Only 8 runs over fences, (although 2 careers wins over 3m). There are trends that I did not mention that I applied to the field when I went through trying to whittle the numbers down - exclude French bred, needs 10+ chase runs (to show experience), first time National runner, must have won a chase worth 17k+ My list is down to 14, but of those several are likey non-runners (Billyvoddan, Graphic Approach), and I couldn't have Cloudy Bays (2 falls, 3 URs), Zabenz (only one 3m+ win) or Slim Pickings (2 falls and only two 3m+ wins) *9 remain* Of those 9, Tikram's three 3m+ wins have come at 22f, 21f and 21f which doesn't show enough stamina for me. *8 remain* The Outlier only has three wins over 3m+ and one fall. Nothing really against him but I'd prefer to concentrate on others. *7 remain* Dun Doire and Point Barrow are fancied, but as a fan of National Hunt Racing as a sport, I cannot support a short priced horse in a gimmick race! *5 remain* The 5 left are: SIMON BOTHER NA HOMER WELLS MCEVELEY NAUNTON BROOK Looking through again, I might have rushed over looked Homer Wells. Has the right sort of credentials (four 3m+ wins and only 1 fall), a double letter and a trainer who has won it before (Willie Mullins). Bother Na again has a similar profile (four 3m+ wins and two URs) and the same trainer. Trainer comments (on racingpost site) suggest that Mullins thinks Bother Na will be better suited to the National as Homer Wells needs softer ground. I think a shortlist of 5 will do. Comments appreciated! |
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Naunton Brook is an interesting candidate particularly in the light of its run in the Kim Muir. Usually up with the pace , another key GN trend in recent years. Was the Kim Muir the Cotswold equivalent of the Irish spin over hurdles?
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MMMMMMmm
simon -NO,afterthought. Bothar na-possible,but doubt its staying power to win the race,place at best. Homer wells-Doubtful runner imo. MCK-Now youre talking!!! N brook-not so sure.does not appeal to me. |
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Ilnamar the one stat i persnally wouldn't be concerned with is the weight issue it can be ignored this year because some horses are running below their o/rtn'g.
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Add this trend in never bet a horse in the National that wears blinkers.
This is a good trend the 4 - 6 runs in the year I think can be overlooked if the horse has run races before November of the previous year. On that note and not just because I fancy the horse strongly POINT BARROW must be there. The Irish National has been a key race over the last 8 years: Bobbyjo (Won) Papillon (2nd in Irish) Numbersixvalverde (Won) Under 11 stone always seems the be the key trend as it was in the Ritz Club at Cheltenham. This is the one that swings it for me. |
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Hmmm, yes I suppose I did overlook Jack High....that was because I was actually eliminating horses without a run in the last 40 days, rather than 50 as cited above. I don't think he will win though.
The stats about horses that have not fallen in their career are also interesting but now carry less weight - for me - now that the race is not quite the stern test of jumping it used to be. There are of also various other stats concerning values of races won previously and also winning a chase in a large field which do not change my shortlist but do reinforce some eliminations. Actually Slim Pickings has never beaten more than 6 rivals in a chase, so he goes. As for Point Barrow, you can't argue with the recent stats regarding Irish National Winners. However on a strict interpretation of the stats he has had a run too many this year and all those recent placed efforts add up to a hard season already in my book. |
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Friday trend = girls wearing very little :x lol
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statistics can prove anything and according to these stats i've obviously backed the wrong horse, however horses cannot read, so i hold out great hopes of winning.
weak minded people or auto suggestive people will blindy follow, won't they, atavus? |
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We are talking about trends, not statistics. There is a difference.
As mentioned earlier (on another thread?) French breds have a poor record in the Grand National - this is because that French NH Racing does not have many stamina-heavy races, therefore they do not breed horses with stamina in mind. Trends relating to age for the National are there because young horses do not have the experience to cope with the rigours of the 4m 4f trip and jumping test. The weights trend is because its a very very difficult race to carry significant lumps of weight and give so much away to improving horses (N.B. Suny Bay's top weight performance killed of the rest of his career IMO) I've been having a laugh about the 'double letter trend' (should be a STATISTIC) to make a point. Just exercise some common sense when looking at trends and ststistics, its not THAT difficult! |
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How can the trend for weights that has been established over many years, often when no more than two or three horses carried over 11 stone, still be valid when the way the race is framed is so completely different these days? Trendies seem to conveniently ignore Hedgehunter's win just to fit in with their lazy ways. Tut-tut.
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As I commented just before the hedgehunter win. The 11 stone theory could be discounted as the bottom weight was 10 stone. I think that will also be the case this year, so don't discount anything weighted a few pounds above 11 stone:
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1970 Gay Trip Anthony J. Chambers 11-5 b.g. 1962 Vulgan (FR) - Turkish Tourist by Turkhan 19
1974 Red Rum (IRE) Noel Le Mare 12-0 b.g. 1965 Quorum - Mared by Magic Red 25 1975 L'Escargot (IRE) **Guest 11-3 ch.g. 1963 Escart III (FR) - What a Daisy by Grand Inquisitor 3 - i 1977 Red Rum (IRE) Noel Le Mare 11-8 b.g. 1965 Quorum - Mared by Magic Red 25 1982 Grittar Frank Gilman 11-5 b.g. 1973 Grisaille - Tarama by Tamerlane 22 1983 Corbiere Bryan Burrough 11-4 ch.g. 1975 Harwell - Ballycashin by Vulgan (FR) 3 - j 1988 Rhyme 'n' Reason (IRE) Juliet Reed 11-0 b.g. 1979 Kemal (FR) - Smooth Lady by Tarqogan 3 - l hedgehunter 11-1 in 2005 it has been done and it is a very classy race with 8 horses since 1970 doing it. 8 from 37 years is about 4.5/1. would that correspond to the amount of runners below 11 stone vs the amount over? |
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8 out of 37 is 21.62 %
Of the 384 horses that have run in the last 10 years 67 have carried 11 st or over 17.44%. So should we be saying 11st or over ou perform the under 11st brigade? But saying that you could say in the last 10 years only 1 in 10 (10%) compared to 67/384 ( 17.44%) We can all make stats say what we want cant we. |
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im not saying anything plastic, i think its a class race in which a top weight could win as easy as a bottom tbh
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If you want rid of Jack High, didn't he win a Whitbread?
Incidentally Cheltenham_Hill 22f is 2f short of three miles. |
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he also won the troytown and came an unlucky second in the irish national
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