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great stuff chaps, can't believe I missed this thread lol :)
Well done to all backers - thoroughly deserved!! |
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Waste of time trends (I am joking by the way,mine came up with Joes Edge, Silver Birch and Bewleys Berry!), just do what my wife did, pick 3 names out, say "We won nothing last year so I'm not going to back them". Her 3 names? Silver Birch, McKelvey and Slim Pickings!!!
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Superb stuff chaps, very well done. Wish I'd paid more attention now!
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Spot on mate- well done! wish I'd kept the faith! - bailed out after walking the corse on Thursday - oops! walked it on Sat. - nearly lost my shoe in places - bo###ocks - win some ' lose some - great thread nevertheless - more of the same please!!!
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Congratulations - absolutely brilliant thread.
Who says trends don't work? Not a horse carrying 11st+ in sight. I was on McKelvey myself and thought it a little unlucky, I think the jockey didn't appreciate just how quickly they go around Aintree when the going is good, and they just dont tire on the 'bouncy' turf. Silver Birch and Slim Pickings managed to take 5 lengths off McKelvey as they headed for home on the run-up to the 2nd-last. By the time McKelvey managed to pick-up the difference his jockey then had the misfortune of using his whip in his left hand causing McKelvey to drift to the right - when he swapped the whip to his right hand McKelvey was gaining with every stride as he kept a straight line. But take nothing away from the winner, or his trainer. Brilliant job to bring a 'crock' to win the National in his first year with a license. |
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thatch is the man!
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Bump.
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Anyone done the legwork on these particularly succcessful trends?
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I get these three
D'Argent Comply or Die Black Apalachi now what was it about headgear..... |
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After applying all the formula it appears that nothing can win it this year.
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lol
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sittin'.....pick only 5 from this lot please.......
11 412183 Fundamentalist 23 N A Twiston-Davies 38 10 11-4 P J Brennan 148 163 158 1-6 0-0 12 11-373 Butlers Cabin 49 Jonjo ONeill 56 8 11-3 A P McCoy 147 161 118 1-6 0-0 13 3-62S5 Slim Pickings 34 T J Taaffe 13 9 11-3 B J Geraghty 147 161 156 0-1 0-1 14 3F6514 Chelsea Harbour 34 Thomas Mullins 50 8 11-2 D N Russell 146 158 124 0-2 0-0 15 -01105 Vodka Bleu 49 D E Pipe 17 9 11-2 Paul Moloney 146 163 138 1-5 0-0 16 -63003 LAmi 25 F Doumen 9 11-1 Mick Fitzgerald 145 167 152 1-5 0-1......(French bred I know) 17 -F1133 Snowy Morning 42 W P Mullins 68 8 11-1 D J Casey 145 172 139 0-1 0-0 18 29F-2P Bewleys Berry 49 J Howard Johnson 60 10 11-0 Denis ORegan 144 167 123 1-4 0-1 20 612-80 Mckelvey 21 P Bowen 40 9 11-0 T J OBrien 144 160 156 0-2 0-1 21 -20037 Joaaci 98 D E Pipe 17 8 10-13 J W Farrelly 143 166 136 1-3 0-0 22 080403 Point Barrow 19 P Hughes 25 10 10-13 Tony Dobbin 143 154 117 0-1 0-1 24 2-P014 DArgent 49 A King 54 11 10-12 Robert Thornton 142 168 164 1-7 0-0 28 U-5111 Cloudy Lane 35 D McCain Jnr 65 8 10-11 Jason Maguire 141 178 170 2-5 0-0 30 34-P36 Mon Mome 25 Miss Venetia Williams 60 8 10-11 A Coleman 141 147 101 1-7 0-0......(even if French bred) 35 P/0P21 Comply Or Die 42 D E Pipe 17 9 10-9 Timmy Murphy 139 174 169 2-3 0-0 41 /84-2B 59 Philson Run 49 Nick Williams 60 12 10-8 Daryl Jacob 138 163 160 1-6 0-1 42 1P-062 58 Dun Doire 19 A J Martin 58 9 10-7 Richard McGrath 137 146 - 1-1 0-1...(now runs) |
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those runners with a handicap rating between 136 and 147 (this year those carrying 11st 3 or less) account for 55% of all the runners in the last decade and been responsible for all winners during that time. Only Red Rum has carried more than 11-5 in 50 years
use that instead of the weight and take out those with headgear and Les Francais Leaves you with Snowy and Slim I think :) |
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Cloudy Lane 11/2
Comply Or Die 11 Slim Pickings 12 Simon 13 Bewleys Berry 16 Chelsea Harbour 16 Butlers Cabin 18 King Johns Castle 20 Mr Pointment 22 Snowy Morning 25 Hedgehunter 25 Point Barrow 25 Philson Run 25 Mckelvey 25 Mon Mome 28 Dun Doire 33 DArgent 33 Turko 33 Joes Edge 40 L ami 40 Kelami 40 |
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My five........
Point Barrow 19 P Hughes 25 10 10-13 Tony Dobbin 143 154 117 0-1 0-1........25/1 Slim Pickings 34 T J Taaffe 13 9 11-3 B J Geraghty 147 161 156 0-1 0-1......12/1 Bewleys Berry 49 J Howard Johnson 60 10 11-0 Denis ORegan 144 167 123 1-4 0-1....16/1 Mon Mome 25 Miss Venetia Williams 60 8 10-11 A Coleman 141 147 101 1-7 0-0.....28/1 Philson Run 49 Nick Williams 60 12 10-8 Daryl Jacob 138 163 160 1-6 0-1.....25/1 ]:) |
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Applying the trends this year I am expecting a barrow load of cash. These are the four to concentrate on for e/w and f/c t/c bets.
Comply Or Die Point Barrow D'Argent Black Apalachi |
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gazovic
Oh well if there are records over 10 years it must be a reliable trend (my ars*). You get 13 successive reds or blacks every night of the week on the roulette at a casino. Statistics like these over 10 years are quite interesting but of no value whatsoever in finding the best horse at the weights. |
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Except the Grand National stats/trends point you almost without fail to a successful shortlist of the best horses at the weights ffs!!!
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cryoftruth
I am truly flattered to be held personally responsible for the fallable nature of trends based predictions |
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sittin'.....pick only 5 from this lot please.......
Have picked my 5 on another forum, as it happens theyre all on the list anyway so maybe I have some sort of intuition for the stats!! Slim Pickings McKelvey Comply or Die Philson Run Dun Doire (bl) Notice the blinkers first time on Dun Doire, might sharpen this lazy galloper up although not alot in its run last year to inspire. |
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sittingchilly 03 Apr 14:48
After applying all the formula it appears that nothing can win it this year. He's not joking,so what do we do now? The closest 4 are Point Barrow,Kelami,Naunton Brook and Ardaghev |
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Its between Comply Or Die Or McKelvey. Now that looks like three horses but its only two. And the winner is McKelvey because he is a bigger price. Don't argue with me. I'm easily upset.
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ttt
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Killer stat: no Irish-trained 8-y-o carrying 11-1 which finished placed at the Cheltenham Festival in his novice season and which has prepped by falling in the Hennessy, winning over hurdles at Fairyhouse and Punchestown and being placed in conditions (not handicap!) chases at Leopardstown and Fairyhouse has ever been beaten in the National.
Conclusion: Snowy Morning is a cert. When I say "ever", my stats only go back to 1878. They may, therefore, be unreliable. |
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Ilnamar got it 2nd year in a row
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Well done that man!!!
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kincsem 04 Apr 00:04
Its between Comply Or Die Or McKelvey. Now that looks like three horses but its only two. And the winner is McKelvey because he is a bigger price. Don't argue with me. I'm easily upset. Now I'm upset. Fuming. :8} |
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Huge trends race. Hilarious to see Hedgehunter being punted but that's by the by.
I'm now left wondering what the feck I was doing not following them through instead of messing around with them. Does anyone else find that they gave a shortlist of 3 - Comply or Die, D'Argent, Joacci ? "oops". |
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My 'trends' shortlist was Comply Or Die, Snowy Morning & Baily Breeze :0.
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Aye suppose Snowy allowed in off 11-1 ;\
Still, with those we've mentioned Deep it would have made the task very simple to pin down the likeliest challengers. Well done yourself for having the sense to do so :) |
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Was using 11st5lbs as the top bracket due to the compressed handicap, AR.
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ttt .
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National weights up 5lbs as Maidson is taken out By Lee Mottershead12.00PM 18 MAR 2009
STAR chaser Madison Du Berlais is the latest high-profile Grand National entry to have been taken out of the Aintree showpiece, for which the weights have been raised 5lbs. Betfair Chase winner Snoopy Loopy heads the 88 runners left in the Grand National on 11st 10lb with Nozic, one of five possible starters for Paul Nicholls, next best on 11st 8lb. RELATED LINKS »Grand National betting Following the raising of the weights, favourite My Will is pegged on 11st 1lb, Butler's Cabin has 10st 10lb and last year's hero Comply Or Die is on 11st 3lb. Among the other 17 scratchings are Cheltenham winner Imperial Commander and Garde Champetre, Exotic Dancer and Notre Pere. |
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If you are applying the over 11 stone rule there are a lot of shorter prices ones now out.
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The daddy of GN threads
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Thatch, unfortunately no longer with us RIP
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was just about to post that, RIP :(
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What happened to Thatch? :-(
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ttt
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Was about to do a thread for this year (2010 in case it is getting confusing) and then saw this had been brought up. So without going back through all the trends, the horses that qualify at the moment are:
Dooneys Gate, Gone to Lunch, Ballyfitz, Equus maximus, Arbor Supreme, Cane Brake, Irish Raptor, Parsons Pistol. Of those Dooneys Gate & Equus Maximus look too inexperienced, Gone To Lunch has only beaten very small fields in its chase wins, Cane Brake has not won for over 3 years and Parsons Pistol will rant heavy ground which I would think it is unlikely to get. That leaves me with Ballyfitz, Arbor Supreme and Irish Raptor, so they are currently my 3 against the field. May change after more horses have had their prep runs but I have had small investments at current prices. Good luck all! |