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Converted me Plat.! - do you know if Ruby will ride for him?
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wouldnt be that much of a shock considering he took the ride in the pierce and again next time out. thats twice in the one year when he's only ridden him once before (his first novice hurdle in 02). got me thinking somethings up. if hh doesnt make it, and heard keeps eurotrek then i would say he'll be up
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Always a story behind the national winner!This would have the tears flowing! -Ruby owes his dad one for doing JH on Number6!!!
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indeed, himself and brasil are best pals too so maybe its teds turn this year ;)
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plat,I was saying how we can [b]ALL[b] manipulate stats and was not being critical of your stats,indeed I am glad you brought it up and made me do the research for the actual percentages.
I totally agree with you when you say it is just as likely for a high,medium,or low weight winner. I think the main "trend " is a class chase winner over 3m+. If you all had to pick one "trend" to stick to above all others which would it be ,and for what reasons ? Good luck. |
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I think the 3m+ chase win is the best trend as:
A) It is 100% (except for Red Marauder apparently who only won over 3m over hurdles B) It makes perfect sense that a horse should have already demonstrated a certain amount of stamina. However there are other trends such as the 4-6 runs which are also 100% and also have a logical foundation. They are harder to be concrete about though - would you eliminate a horse with 7 runs but none of them especially hard? |
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Point taken.
What I was trying to say about the weights trend was just an example of understanding the differences between trends and statistics (as I see them). I try to include an element of using 'common sense' when applying trends, and in recent years the National handicapper has done a better job of bringing the classier entries back into the reckoning by compacting the handicap, so I am willing to include those weighted a few pounds over 11st if they have the right profile. When I use trends I try and build a typical profile of race winners and understand why such a profile exists and apply that to my selections (albeit not always knowledgably!). Its not a case of just blindly following statistics! Dirt me and furlongs dont agree. I stand by the fact Im too young (and ignorant). For my sanity, how many furlongs are there in a mile then!!??? |
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what about clan royal now mc coy is of him likes the course just needs a bit of luck
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cheltenham hill - eight furlongs in a mile.
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plastic, a group winner, 3mile plus winner and a recent run with a few runs this season would be what i weight the highest regarding trends and overall form tbh. i then would look for a horse who's 'well in' and so on...
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Seem to remember that a Topspeed rating of 128 and a RPR of 144 was a pre-requisite, which rules out both Dun Doire and point barrow
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I think Point Barrow is the stand-out on both form & trends. However, he's now geeting short in price (thankfully, I'm on at 20's & 16's).
However, in terms of value, Silver Birch (who I've been banging on about for the past 3 months) must be very attractive at current prices - 25s Bt365 paying 5 places NRNB. Was fav for the race 2 years ago when too young, now perfect age. Won Welsh National & Becher Chase and has been brought right back to form by his new handler this season. Ran a blinder in Chelts trying to give the fav nearly a stone. Only 4 runs this season & improving with each race, it's difficult to find any trend that he doesn't tick. My one reservation is if the ground comes up good - not sure if he'd handle it. And one long shot to complete the 1-2-3 . Ballycassidy who was tanking along 6 lengths clear when falling 5 from home last year. Right age group, proven stamina, "gentle" season, slightly dodgy jumper but dodgier ones have won. On genuine good ground he must go close |
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Dun Doire will go off 7/1 fav.
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Thatch - unfortunately traveltips pinpoints the weakness in Silver Birch case as his best Topspeed is 130. Although this trend is not the most intuitive over the marathon trip, it holds pretty good. Since I always moderate trends with some common sense I am not willing to rule him out just yet - after all I have been waiting 3 years to collect on this one (came back off holiday to find that my ante-post bet was a goner in 2005 and think he was running a pretty good race when out of form last year - on again at a big price). I agree he just looks right and I hope he chooses April 14th to produce that extra speed. I also wish he had run a bit worse at Cheltenham ! If a horse MUST run there before the National I like to see it unplaced and not use up valuable reserves so close to the big one. But the X-country is a law unto itself anyway so hope remains ! I was actually thinking the best result would be to jump round well and finish say 5th or 6th. Hmmm - Royal Auclair 6th. Trading at 65-70 currently. 6lbs lower than when 2nd to Hedgehunter. With Paul Nicholls who had Silver Birch previously. That would be too cruel. Saver purchased !!!!
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Whoops - should have commented that I think traveltips has that Topspeed figure a bit low. I think it should be 143 (and RPR of 144). I hope he is right except that I would have to go back over lots of other runners then :-( !
This trend DOES have to be taken with a pinch of salt - Hedgehunter and Nr6 didn't meet it - its quite weak where a lot of the form is Irish and so missing a figure at all. In Silver Birch's case he can't be criticised for not posting an impressive figure in the X-country ! We need to take this as a guide to whats required and ask if the horse is of that calibre - sometimes in the absence of actual figures ! So is SB actually quick enough when it comes to the business end ? I'm hoping so ! |
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Carpetman, Silver Birch has achieved a Topspeed of 130 & RPR of 148 twice - when he won the Welsh National & - crucially - on his most recent run. Just coming nicely to the boil and managing to stay under the radar all season! Good jumper & bags of stamina. Given cut in the ground, he'll take some beating
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And now he's Irish trained, which has hardly been a handicap recently, right ?!!! He seemed to lose interest with Nicholls and it looks to me like his new handler has recaptured his interest with those X-country runs. He enjoys a challenge - I think the Aintree fences fit that bill so lets hope we are not deluding ourselves, Thatch !
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does anyone happen to know the official bhb rating of the last ten winners thanks.
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2006 nosixvalverde - 138
2005 hedgehunter - 144 2004 amberleigh house - 139 2003 montys pass - 139 2002 bindaree - 136 2001 red marauder -140 2000 papillon - 139 1999 bobbyjo - 142 1998 earth summit - 147 1997 lord gyllene - 149 |
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cheers tips.
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I think I'm only person to put up Livingstonebramble - probably for very good reason! - but two staying-on efforts over 3m (one in Thystes Chase) and seven runs this season don't put me off too much...and he's been confirmed a runner.
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archie - read somewhere that mullins was thinking of dropping Livingstone in trip. All he actually has said is that horse on course for aintree, not said GN. horse also entered in Topham!
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Its the ultimate trends race - as this thread shows there are loads of them. Add in the ratings stuff and going preferences etc. and you can have well over 20 boxes to be ticked. I dont demand 100% stats, 90% (9 out of 10) is good for me and I then concentrate on the horses who have the most ticks in the boxes. This way I dont necessarily eliminate any horse who fails on one or even two factors ie. Hedgehunter (over 11st) and Amberleigh (age).
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maybe u should, given that neither of those two can possibly win
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In past years Mythical - in past years.
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Glad to hear some others fancy Silver Birch. I backed him a couple of years ago when he got injured and was dissapointed to see him lose his way with Nicholls.
Was at Cheltenham to see the run in the Sporting Index and it was most impressive. He jumped and travelled really well which is so important in the National. Looks to be back to his best, he has form over the fences, should get the trip and gets in on a good weight. I really fancy Silver Birch for at least a place. My only worry is that The Racing Post described him as 'a plodder' and he may get too far behind. Hope not and I'm hoping it rains between now and the big day. If t does this fella should run a huge race. |
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If there is any appreciable rain I think Silver Birch's price will contract substantially. I don't know if any rain in prospect but I'll be praying for it as I've been backing at all prices from 120 down
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If we are looking at trends stats, then surely we must take into account the fact that since 1954 75% of winners were sent off at 20/1 or less; with only six favs obliging!
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polpo 6 out of 52 is 11.53 % which is
8.67 or 7.67/1 that can not be far away from the average price of the favs over that time span so I do not see anything unusual in those stats. |
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just worked it out and guess what average price last 10 years of the fav is 7.6/1
5/1,7/1,10/1,7/1,8/1,10/1,9/1,6/1,7/1,7/1. |
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Outstanding Ilnamar. Tricast up out of your six payed over 12K. Hope you were on.
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Actually first three out of four. Like I said outstanding.
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Simply Staggering
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Pretty impressive, if I do say so myself ;).
My biggest ever individual winner on Silver Birch and got the forecast / exacta up for an extra grand. Unfortunately I rehoned my selection process slightly and got rid of Slim Pickings so I missed the tricast but I'm not complaining :) |
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Excellent stuff Ilnamar - well done mate
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Ilnamar/Thatch...
Great call guys,Silver Birch met almost all the trends,as did the 2nd and 3rd.Travelled and jumped superbly,not heard much re jockey,thought he gave this peach of a ride,Took a couple pulls 2nd circuit,the jump at the last sealed it,great race. Cider....Trifecta tote 18,000 and as mentioned exacta almost double csf,big prices always go with the nanny goat! |
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well done Ilnamar - had 12 win & 10 to place on Silver Birch thanks to this thread
cyber champagne on its way to you ;) |
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What the forum should be all about. First Class.
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I try and use similar ideas with my own slant and found the second and third so not a disaster.
Well done though ... think wed all be interested in any thoughts for this Saturday or the Betfred ;) |
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just noticed I managed to say Betfred without the stars
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