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Seems
State of play is alive and Cant buy time is to be ridden by Macoy :) |
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Snowy Morning all the way for me. Backed him at 40s and was delighted the handicapper was so lenient with him by dropping him a pound or two. He's been running at inadequate trips all season, hasn't even been put in the race a couple of times but finishes his races really well. Jumping has been sound too which has been his main question mark.
I've backed Ballyfitz a few times with varying degrees of success. His jumping is simply not good enough to win a National. |
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What has happened to Ilnamars revised selections , I always value his views ?
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ttt
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Is there a problem with Vic Venturi out to 25's on here?
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Ilnamar 21 Mar 07:56
Having updated my analysis for Cheltenham results, not a single horse fits all my trends. All that means is that no horse has the "perfect" profile, so now I will look for horses that come close - e.g. they may have a good 4th instead of a 3rd in their recent form; they may have only 3 runs in the season but have always been successful after being lightly raced. AS still meets all the trends, no? |
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Only thing AS 'fails' on in my trends is 4-6 runs that season (15/15) - although the May Punchestown run was 'technically' this season
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Indeed Deep - technically does still qualify
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deep/H what about the previous races to have run in that alot seem to be using in their nat. trends now....ie top 4 henn,irsh nat etc.
you 2 using any of that...think AR does iirc ? |
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The rule is:
12. Top 5 finish in Hennessy OR Top 3 in Irish, Scots or Welsh National OR Top 2 in a race over Aintree National fences OR 3+ Chase wins at 3m+ (one being at 3m 4f+) AS just fails on the last count with one of his chase wins coming over 20f. |
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Big Buck's
Posted Today @ 14:00 thanks interesting because I can't see how he's not getting at least 2 of my top 4. More dubious given Snowy M has to be in there regardless of any tweaking. thats his response to the thread starter |
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Yes, that's VK's trends - I use:
Won Listed/Graded Chase (14/16) - AS won Porterstown (Grade C) The two exceptions were - Lord Gyllene (runner-up in G2 & G3) & Royal Athlete (3rd in Gold Cup) |
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surely Hello Bud meets the trends?
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Hasn't placed within last 3 runs.
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I think Hello Bud misses cause he's shown feck all this season tbh :|
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My latest fancy is becoming Irish Raptor :|
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Arbor Supreme wins the Porterstown Grade C chase. This is a 0-140 handicap roughly equivalent to one of our Class 2 handicaps. I think theres a confusion between Grade 1,2,3 and Grade A,B,C here. Or am I plain wrong ? Can someone clarify ?
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lordnoise, it's a difficult one - Irish runners are usually given higher marks by UK handicapper, so I use Graded/Listed races (whatever the rating) in the respective countries.
Can't speak for others Re: AS - the two long-distance wins have to be regarded as a positive imo |
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He'd be THE trends horse in race along with BFT if hed placed in last years Irish National. As it is he was never going in the race - wonder what went wrong ?
Still interested if anyone can clarify what the equivalent of Grade A,B,C handicaps in Ireland are over here ... |
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Hi Deep, which horses are on your shortlist mate?
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lordnoise - i addressed AS 's run in the irish national with you previously. hth
deep - any others catch ur fancy ?:| |
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Plat
Happy with the AS news today :) Must admit Ive backed him as well as SM, now reckon SM is over priced @ 27. Had a nibble on VV today already traded out. Pretty much done now, however do fear BFT, but hes too short @ 8/1 for a race like this. |
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hey terry, like to see support alright and im up to my neck on him tbh. SM is a horse ive always liked but he has never really attained the same form from his novice days imo. AS is more progressive but i might save on SM
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platinni - must have missed your posting on AS and the Irish GN. Can you repeat please ?
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cant find it. i referred to irish national being less classy so being off 140+ there is not the same as 140 in the english. particularly for a young horse. case and pt was thousand stars who was well beaten in the pierse off a top weight, english handicapper leaves him alone and nails the winner and placers. he boots in off a lowish weight, v similar to AS. impossible task in the IGN but off a welther in the english
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Thanks. I take your point but it does beg the question why they would bother to run at all.
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To get a nice handicap mark for this hopefully.
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why run any horses? they probably gave him a shot as they thought he was that good? pressure from owners? who knows
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Worth a punt the trends support it and if ap is on with JP's money it will be 8-1 on the day
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4-6 runs in the season - 15/15
So a horse that has had 3 or 7 runs can't possibly win because of this trend, even if it jumps best, has a stone in hand, & jumps the last fence a distance clear. Presumably the brute then does a Devon Loch because it cannot win because the trend says so. oh dear oh dear oh dear |
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no ones saying it cant win, the trend is an indication of how fit the horse has to be and the last 15 winners have obliged. maybe this years wont oblige (State of Play for example) but its still useful info.
Patronising **** ;) |
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Looking into the logic behind the number of runs stat I'd be tempted to ditch it this year. Weve just been through the worst Winter in 30 years so were told - many well layed plans will have been ruined.
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Or maybe it would that make it more relevant for horses who have managed to get a few runs into them?
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Your right of course ak but I would never let one trend put me off if everything else was right. Add in the wide availability of AW gallops nowadays and its one of those trends that might not be as important as it was 10 years ago.
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I've backed SofP and best win came going completely fresh after a long lay off and the trainer vindicates this. First time back at the mark of the victory speaking about here and 5 lbs well in on last year's performance. Great chance at the end of the day. In terms of trends, last year dispelled the French one and also the ridiculously long odds one, so whats to say this year will not dispel the lack of runs trend? Not saying trends are not helpful, but used too strictly could go against just as easily as disregarding completely can be a**-up. At the end of the day its using all info out there etc and then hoping for a bit of luck aswell!
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I've a lot of respect for StOP (LOL) especially as he was hampered at 2nd Bechers last year like Mon Mome was the year before he won. But for a horse that does run well fresh he put a shocker in behind Denman in the Hennessey this year. Whats the shout from the stable ?
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Wouldn't have helped his chance here if he'd won a good race in the Henessey would it :-)
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^Run a good race
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re: hello bud, i take the point about having not placed in previous 3 runs but thought the cheltenham run more than respectable while previous runs since becher chase were on unsuitably heavy ground.
best form is in spring on better ground. thought it took to national fences very well, is guaranteed to stay the trip, nice weight plus trainer is flying and has trained 2 winners of this race before. overpriced imo |
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Especially as he won the Hennessey on 06 off 145 (3lbs less). That poor run and the fact that hes obviously had problems over the years means I'd want to hear something positive from the stable before backing him.
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