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Meh, actually have now been through this in a bit more detail. A few things may change over the next 3 weeks, but I think this year's stand out trends horse is going to be Arbor Supreme.
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Good work
Snowy Morning only just misses out (was unplaced last year) but has been running far better this year and carries less weight. Dont think the Arbor Supreme price will hold up if its the clear trends pick |
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One thing I came across last year is that winners have to have posted an improved or same RP chase rating over the last 3 NH seasons (3 includes current season). In other words the National goes to an improving horse whatever its age - even Amberleigh House at 12 had done this. I gave Mon Mome the benefit of the doubt last year as in the 07 into 08 season he'd had problems and only ran 4 times from Feb 08. If I remember correctly I took this trend back beyond the usual 10 years and it holds up really well.
Arbor Supreme has achieved this already this year although I worry about him having bombed in the Irish Nat - you could argue that the the other long distance Irish races hes won/placed in are not yet classic National trend races. Irish Raptor has posted 145, 145 in the 2 seasons prior to this one and as long as he improves or equals this at Cheltenham I'll be piling into him too. Try the 'improving' test on your fancy ... |
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That leaves me with Ballyfitz, Arbor Supreme and Irish Raptor, so they are currently my 3 against the field. May change after more horses have had their prep runs but I have had small investments at current prices.
Platinni is on Arbor as well Ilnamar. Given your respective tipping records I can't see how this one can lose now! GL |
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In the early nineties stopwatch ratings used to do very in the National, but they disappeared,was it Dave Edwards?,cant remember which paper,weekender or update or sporting chronical.Some people suggested it became tospeed,but that cant be right.
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Ballyfitz is surely too poor a jumper to win a GN?
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good to see ilnamar, best of luck
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ak1979
That's what was said about Maori Venture. |
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Managed at least a place in one of previous 3 runs - 100%
Surely that rules out Irish Raptor? |
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Irish Raptor is entered at Cheltenham. If he places there then its back in business.
This horse has a good record in April and a good record on good ground. Could see it getting into a stride similar to Mr Frisk in 1990 if the going is good. Certainly has a chance E/W. |
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at first glance i fancy Arbor Supreme aswell theres a page on facebook has anyone seen it or herd of the guy thats doing it,he seems to think arbor aswell
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^^^^^http://www.facebook.com/#!/profile.php?ref=profile&id=100000844716438
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Is he a confirmed runner? Mullins has been very quiet about Arbor. If he lines up he must be considered
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irish raptor and state of play been put up now
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Weights will almost certainly go up another 3 pounds, with the top 5 dropping off one by one. Mon Mome even made top weight would return to defend his crown. That will mean quality and in form nags like Tricky and Niche carrying 11-7 which will be too much, same goes for Dream Alliance with 11-6. WOA would have to defeat several decades of trend on 11-4 to do it. I would say the only one's with over 11 stone on their back on race day who have a chance are Snowy Morning (11-2) and Big Fella Thanks (11-1). That said the last to carry as much as 11-1 was Hedgehunter in 2005 (and in 27 years since Corbiere carried 11-4 to victory in 1983) and was a 9 year old at the time with a yr's experience in the big race. Big Fella did have a potentially great prep race last year and has continued improving all season so will certainly be there or thereabouts if gets a clean run at it. Snowy Morning will be only 2 pounds up on his run of 2 years ago when 3rd but 9 pounds down on last year's effort of a respectable 9th. Now a 10 year old so should be at his peak and had a decent prep season with this in mind. Certainly worth backing for a place, but question marks over whether can carry 11-2 and beat a trend dating back nearly 3 decades. Almost always the bridesmaid but never the main prize at the altar unfortunately for this one. For those fancying Snowy Morning, My Will, WOA, etc much better value in Gone to Lunch who even giving Snowy a pound in weight was way ahead in the Hennessy back in November, with an impressive 5th place finish. Excellent run in last year's Scottish just pipped by Hello Bud giving something like a stone in weight. Apart from that run in the Hennessy, been very average at best this season, but still has shown the ability before necessary to win this or go close. Ballyfitz fits many trends and has been rated as high as 152 when will now run off 143. Last year beat Big Fella Thanks in a novice chase giving 8 pounds in weight and had some decent runs in big fields this season. Suspect jumping it is claimed, but then again only 1 F and 1 UR to its name over career. Another one for the short-lists. Arbor Supreme, has beaten Black Appalachi before over 30 furlongs and won another 28 furlong effort - both in big fields. Had a poor Irish National last year and average season this, although last time out in a decent grade 2 Chase was 2nd carrying top weight in heavy ground. Would suggest a return to form and has proven winning ability on any type of ground aswell. Will have 10-11 on its back and very, very dangerous indeed. Irish Raptor is an interesting one. Seems to love Aintree and decent ground. 2nd and 1st respectively in terms of last two Topham's, that said hiked 10 and 8 pounds respectively for his efforts. Never done anything past 133 mark and Handicapper has probably found him out on 141. 10-10 will be a nice race weight though and proven over the fences, so would not discard completely. Razor Royale excellent latest win in RPC, but never gone beyond 25 furlongs, so difficult to judge and pure guess work as to whether has the necessary stamina for this. Again 10-10 nice race weight. Hello Bud, won last year's Scottish but now 12 and done very little this season after the winning hike and may well have been his swansong then, although proven stamina would give a shout if put in career best performance (especially off a nice weight of 10-9). Which leaves Iris de Balme, very good finish to 2008 season winning Scottish and also 4th at Sandown. Then out whole of last season and only 2 poor prep runs this season, thus easily opposed (even if 10-9 is a nice weight).
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Weights will almost certainly go up another 3 pounds, with the top 5 dropping off one by one. Mon Mome even made top weight would return to defend his crown. That will mean quality and in form nags like Tricky and Niche carrying 11-7 which will be too much, same goes for Dream Alliance with 11-6. WOA would have to defeat several decades of trend on 11-4 to do it. I would say the only one's with over 11 stone on their back on race day who have a chance are Snowy Morning (11-2) and Big Fella Thanks (11-1). That said the last to carry as much as 11-1 was Hedgehunter in 2005 (and in 27 years since Corbiere carried 11-4 to victory in 1983) and was a 9 year old at the time with a yr's experience in the big race. Big Fella did have a potentially great prep race last year and has continued improving all season so will certainly be there or thereabouts if gets a clean run at it. Snowy Morning will be only 2 pounds up on his run of 2 years ago when 3rd but 9 pounds down on last year's effort of a respectable 9th. Now a 10 year old so should be at his peak and had a decent prep season with this in mind. Certainly worth backing for a place, but question marks over whether can carry 11-2 and beat a trend dating back nearly 3 decades. Almost always the bridesmaid but never the main prize at the altar unfortunately for this one.
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For those fancying Snowy Morning, My Will, WOA, etc much better value in Gone to Lunch who even giving Snowy a pound in weight was way ahead in the Hennessy back in November, with an impressive 5th place finish. Excellent run in last year's Scottish just pipped by Hello Bud giving something like a stone in weight. Apart from that run in the Hennessy, been very average at best this season, but still has shown the ability before necessary to win this or go close. Ballyfitz fits many trends and has been rated as high as 152 when will now run off 143. Last year beat Big Fella Thanks in a novice chase giving 8 pounds in weight and had some decent runs in big fields this season. Suspect jumping it is claimed, but then again only 1 F and 1 UR to its name over career. Another one for the short-lists. Arbor Supreme, has beaten Black Appalachi before over 30 furlongs and won another 28 furlong effort - both in big fields. Had a poor Irish National last year and average season this, although last time out in a decent grade 2 Chase was 2nd carrying top weight in heavy ground. Would suggest a return to form and has proven winning ability on any type of ground aswell. Will have 10-11 on its back and very, very dangerous indeed. Irish Raptor is an interesting one. Seems to love Aintree and decent ground. 2nd and 1st respectively in terms of last two Topham's, that said hiked 10 and 8 pounds respectively for his efforts. Never done anything past 133 mark and Handicapper has probably found him out on 141. 10-10 will be a nice race weight though and proven over the fences, so would not discard completely. Razor Royale excellent latest win in RPC, but never gone beyond 25 furlongs, so difficult to judge and pure guess work as to whether has the necessary stamina for this. Again 10-10 nice race weight. Hello Bud, won last year's Scottish but now 12 and done very little this season after the winning hike and may well have been his swansong then, although proven stamina would give a shout if put in career best performance (especially off a nice weight of 10-9). Which leaves Iris de Balme, very good finish to 2008 season winning Scottish and also 4th at Sandown. Then out whole of last season and only 2 poor prep runs this season, thus easily opposed (even if 10-9 is a nice weight).
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Here is my ante post national bets for what it's worth.
Mon Mome Comply Or Die Silver Birch |
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Arbor Supreme, Gone to Lunch and Ballyfitz.
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At least, these are the 3 main value bets out there. All 3 could run out winners at very tasty prices.
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Interesting stuff patrao but can you try and use paragraphs a bit more please :D
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ttt
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Anyone noticed the drift on Vic Venturi?
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Looks like mon momme could end up top weight
11.10 Though the bottom weight maybe only a stone lower Hum Thought he had a hard race today in the gold cup :) |
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One contributer has noted that according to trends "nothing can win this year".
Sorry but after about 4 years banging on about the folly of blindly looking at trends, there is a major problem with predicting future results from past results and trying to pick winners from apparent trends is that there is a major problem with the basic logic of the theory. The problem is that it is complete b0llox. Trends meant that Red Rum could not possibly win 3 nationals & could not win aged 12, and could not win because it was 100 years since a jockey with brown eyes had won 3 nationals in 5 years etc etc etc. Get a grip chaps and chapesses for heavens' sakes. |
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Get a grip COT - every time you read a horses form to find a bet your using the past to predict the future. Same thing old chap.
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Pigeon Island was the strongest trend pick in the Grand Annual, was available at 40/1 ths morning finished 1st.
Othermix was the strongest trend pick in the Jewson, was available at 50/1 all day, think I saw some 66/1 - finished 2nd. Course, it depends on which trends you use and why, in some of the races there was a compressed handicap which meant 0 or only 1 or only 2 horse qualified on ratings from previous races. You use it as a guide, as yourself why this trend has occurred and create a shortlist from that logic. |
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With Gone to Lunch now doubtful, would remain confident with Arbor and Ballyfitz, but would add State of Play and after Cheltenham possibly the Package aswell.
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lordnoise
There is a major difference between working out which contenders in a race have got the best chance or are trading at advantageous prices etc by looking at the actual race contenders themselves, and trying to work out the horses that might win a race by looking at previous trends a race has produced. For example, I bet you could look at the names of all National winning jockeys and find that no jockey with more than 2 christian names has ever won. Or that a jockey with green eyes has never won. Does this mean that a horse with a green eyed jockey has less chance this year? Last year I seem to recall that all the trends were trashed by a French bred with a big weight winning easily. Mon Mome didn't know that he couldn't win because of where he was born, and amazingly for the trends experts, you have to conclude he won because he stayed well, was well handicapped on his best form and liked the big fences. The fact that lower weighted horses had in recent years run well, or that french breds had never won the National had absolutley no bearing whatever on Mon Mome's chances last eyar and won't have any this year either. |
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Trends can make you do some silly things betting imo. If a strong trend - must have been placed last time out , or must have had at least 4 runs during the season, or must not be above 11 stones in the handicap, you can end up ruling out the best horse in the race, and then bemoan your luck that the trend has not stood the test of time.
trends are a lazy way of picking horses. There is no substitute for hard work with a DVD and a form book - ask Tom Segal. |
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There is no doubt that trends can be a lazy way of analysing a race. For myself I live overseas so I dont get to watch the racing and I dont have time to watch replays of all relevant races. However one can be just as lazy going through a race using the formbook - it all depends how much time you want to put in to it.
What the trends give you is a profile of the type of horse that wins....it is hardly a surprise that horses that have a relatively low weight, have previously won over long distances, are fit and in form win the race. What is perhaps surprising is that so few horses each year have this profile....or perhaps that horses clearly dont fit the profile are sometimes sent off at short prices. Having updated my analysis for Cheltenham results, not a single horse fits all my trends. All that means is that no horse has the "perfect" profile, so now I will look for horses that come close - e.g. they may have a good 4th instead of a 3rd in their recent form; they may have only 3 runs in the season but have always been successful after being lightly raced. |
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The colour of a horses eyes obviously have nothing to do with a horses ability to race COT. If trends mean anything they have to relate logically to a horses ability or the conditions in which it races.
In Mon Momes case it being a French bred may have been perceived as a negative given their poor relatively showing in past renewals. As I saw it there could have been for 2 reasons for it being a negative. A genetic one - French breds having had their staying ability bred out of them due to a lack of opportunities over there - and a training method one - many FR breds race as 3yos on bad ground and are burnt out in later years. The first didnt really make sense when you consider how many top class staying FR bred hurdlers there have been while the second couldnt apply in MMs case - he'd raced only once in France as a 4yo and then raced normally in the UK. BTW he carried 11 st (Hedgehunter carried 11st 1lb) had finished a 4 length second in the Welsh Nat ( historically a key trial) and had proved he was still improving by bettering his Welsh Nat RPR in winning a competitve handicap at Cheltenham in the year he won the GN. So while conventional form shtudents (and many trend followers) were laying him at 300 some of us were backers. Not by following trends slavishly as if set in stone but by making an attempt to understand the reasons behind them. |
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The colour of a horses eyes obviously have nothing to do with a horses ability to race COT. If trends mean anything they have to relate logically to a horses ability or the conditions in which it races.
In Mon Momes case it being a French bred may have been perceived as a negative given their poor relatively showing in past renewals. As I saw it there could have been for 2 reasons for it being a negative. A genetic one - French breds having had their staying ability bred out of them due to a lack of opportunities over there - and a training method one - many FR breds race as 3yos on bad ground and are burnt out in later years. The first didnt really make sense when you consider how many top class staying FR bred hurdlers there have been while the second couldnt apply in MMs case - he'd raced only once in France as a 4yo and then raced normally in the UK. BTW he carried 11 st (Hedgehunter carried 11st 1lb) had finished a 4 length second in the Welsh Nat ( historically a key trial) and had proved he was still improving by bettering his Welsh Nat RPR in winning a competitve handicap at Cheltenham in the year he won the GN. So while conventional form shtudents (and many trend followers) were laying him at 300 some of us were backers. Not by following trends slavishly as if set in stone but by making an attempt to understand the reasons behind them. |
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people who dont use any trends are equally lazy imo....its a package of all the info avaliable to us ,out there. ( although i dont use doasage myself..but thats due to a lack of understanding )
but i willstill look at someone elses opinion on that....but for me form reading / trends go hand in hand for my quest for winners. |
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Its amazing looking through Ballyfitzs form just how well in he is here. 143 is more than fair but I just can't see him getting round. The only hope is the better ground. 66's is very tempting.
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agree reefer....the price reflects his chance of jumping round....but if he did...thats some price then...
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trev - you not like snowy? meets the trends and is in far better form this year
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ted got nothing against him what so ever....infact i'm amazed at some of his runs over shorter this yr.
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