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Apologies if someone has already done one of these threads - I couldn't see one. All trends are for last 10 years unless otherwise stated:
Lets start with some abolutes:
Won a chase over at least 3 miles - 100% (and indeed, every winner since at least 1988)
Aged between 8 and 12 - 100% (and every winner since 1978: only 3 8yos, 4 12yos since 1978)
Ran 4-6 times in season - 100% (only Miinehoma since 1988 ran less than 4 times)
Carried 11-1 or less - 100% (only 2 carried 11-0 + in last 20 runnings)
Appying these trends to the top 70 currently entered, 51 runners are eliminated.
Had a run within last 50 days - 100% (18 ex last 20 ran within 36 days)
Had not finished out of the frame or pulled up in a previous GN - 100% (Amberleigh House was 3rd, and also brought down, 2 others fell previousl)
Managed at least a place in one of previous 3 runs - 100% (allows us to eliminate some woefully out of form old-timers)
Had won a maximum of one race that season - 90% (Exception was Lord Gyllene 10 years ago)
Applying these trends to the remaining 19 horses, we are left with a shortlist of just 6:
Royal Auclair
Dun Doire
Slim Pickings
Silver Birch
Mckelvey
Sonevafushi
Of these, Royal Auclair has too much weight for my liking really and Sonevafushi has never actually won a decent race, which all previous winners had. That leaves 4 - you can do the rest yourselves!
Lets start with some abolutes:
Won a chase over at least 3 miles - 100% (and indeed, every winner since at least 1988)
Aged between 8 and 12 - 100% (and every winner since 1978: only 3 8yos, 4 12yos since 1978)
Ran 4-6 times in season - 100% (only Miinehoma since 1988 ran less than 4 times)
Carried 11-1 or less - 100% (only 2 carried 11-0 + in last 20 runnings)
Appying these trends to the top 70 currently entered, 51 runners are eliminated.
Had a run within last 50 days - 100% (18 ex last 20 ran within 36 days)
Had not finished out of the frame or pulled up in a previous GN - 100% (Amberleigh House was 3rd, and also brought down, 2 others fell previousl)
Managed at least a place in one of previous 3 runs - 100% (allows us to eliminate some woefully out of form old-timers)
Had won a maximum of one race that season - 90% (Exception was Lord Gyllene 10 years ago)
Applying these trends to the remaining 19 horses, we are left with a shortlist of just 6:
Royal Auclair
Dun Doire
Slim Pickings
Silver Birch
Mckelvey
Sonevafushi
Of these, Royal Auclair has too much weight for my liking really and Sonevafushi has never actually won a decent race, which all previous winners had. That leaves 4 - you can do the rest yourselves!
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Is he a confirmed runner? Mullins has been very quiet about Arbor. If he lines up he must be considered
Weights will almost certainly go up another 3 pounds, with the top 5 dropping off one by one. Mon Mome even made top weight would return to defend his crown. That will mean quality and in form nags like Tricky and Niche carrying 11-7 which will be too much, same goes for Dream Alliance with 11-6. WOA would have to defeat several decades of trend on 11-4 to do it. I would say the only one's with over 11 stone on their back on race day who have a chance are Snowy Morning (11-2) and Big Fella Thanks (11-1). That said the last to carry as much as 11-1 was Hedgehunter in 2005 (and in 27 years since Corbiere carried 11-4 to victory in 1983) and was a 9 year old at the time with a yr's experience in the big race. Big Fella did have a potentially great prep race last year and has continued improving all season so will certainly be there or thereabouts if gets a clean run at it. Snowy Morning will be only 2 pounds up on his run of 2 years ago when 3rd but 9 pounds down on last year's effort of a respectable 9th. Now a 10 year old so should be at his peak and had a decent prep season with this in mind. Certainly worth backing for a place, but question marks over whether can carry 11-2 and beat a trend dating back nearly 3 decades. Almost always the bridesmaid but never the main prize at the altar unfortunately for this one. For those fancying Snowy Morning, My Will, WOA, etc much better value in Gone to Lunch who even giving Snowy a pound in weight was way ahead in the Hennessy back in November, with an impressive 5th place finish. Excellent run in last year's Scottish just pipped by Hello Bud giving something like a stone in weight. Apart from that run in the Hennessy, been very average at best this season, but still has shown the ability before necessary to win this or go close. Ballyfitz fits many trends and has been rated as high as 152 when will now run off 143. Last year beat Big Fella Thanks in a novice chase giving 8 pounds in weight and had some decent runs in big fields this season. Suspect jumping it is claimed, but then again only 1 F and 1 UR to its name over career. Another one for the short-lists. Arbor Supreme, has beaten Black Appalachi before over 30 furlongs and won another 28 furlong effort - both in big fields. Had a poor Irish National last year and average season this, although last time out in a decent grade 2 Chase was 2nd carrying top weight in heavy ground. Would suggest a return to form and has proven winning ability on any type of ground aswell. Will have 10-11 on its back and very, very dangerous indeed. Irish Raptor is an interesting one. Seems to love Aintree and decent ground. 2nd and 1st respectively in terms of last two Topham's, that said hiked 10 and 8 pounds respectively for his efforts. Never done anything past 133 mark and Handicapper has probably found him out on 141. 10-10 will be a nice race weight though and proven over the fences, so would not discard completely. Razor Royale excellent latest win in RPC, but never gone beyond 25 furlongs, so difficult to judge and pure guess work as to whether has the necessary stamina for this. Again 10-10 nice race weight. Hello Bud, won last year's Scottish but now 12 and done very little this season after the winning hike and may well have been his swansong then, although proven stamina would give a shout if put in career best performance (especially off a nice weight of 10-9). Which leaves Iris de Balme, very good finish to 2008 season winning Scottish and also 4th at Sandown. Then out whole of last season and only 2 poor prep runs this season, thus easily opposed (even if 10-9 is a nice weight).
Weights will almost certainly go up another 3 pounds, with the top 5 dropping off one by one. Mon Mome even made top weight would return to defend his crown. That will mean quality and in form nags like Tricky and Niche carrying 11-7 which will be too much, same goes for Dream Alliance with 11-6. WOA would have to defeat several decades of trend on 11-4 to do it. I would say the only one's with over 11 stone on their back on race day who have a chance are Snowy Morning (11-2) and Big Fella Thanks (11-1). That said the last to carry as much as 11-1 was Hedgehunter in 2005 (and in 27 years since Corbiere carried 11-4 to victory in 1983) and was a 9 year old at the time with a yr's experience in the big race. Big Fella did have a potentially great prep race last year and has continued improving all season so will certainly be there or thereabouts if gets a clean run at it. Snowy Morning will be only 2 pounds up on his run of 2 years ago when 3rd but 9 pounds down on last year's effort of a respectable 9th. Now a 10 year old so should be at his peak and had a decent prep season with this in mind. Certainly worth backing for a place, but question marks over whether can carry 11-2 and beat a trend dating back nearly 3 decades. Almost always the bridesmaid but never the main prize at the altar unfortunately for this one.
For those fancying Snowy Morning, My Will, WOA, etc much better value in Gone to Lunch who even giving Snowy a pound in weight was way ahead in the Hennessy back in November, with an impressive 5th place finish. Excellent run in last year's Scottish just pipped by Hello Bud giving something like a stone in weight. Apart from that run in the Hennessy, been very average at best this season, but still has shown the ability before necessary to win this or go close. Ballyfitz fits many trends and has been rated as high as 152 when will now run off 143. Last year beat Big Fella Thanks in a novice chase giving 8 pounds in weight and had some decent runs in big fields this season. Suspect jumping it is claimed, but then again only 1 F and 1 UR to its name over career. Another one for the short-lists. Arbor Supreme, has beaten Black Appalachi before over 30 furlongs and won another 28 furlong effort - both in big fields. Had a poor Irish National last year and average season this, although last time out in a decent grade 2 Chase was 2nd carrying top weight in heavy ground. Would suggest a return to form and has proven winning ability on any type of ground aswell. Will have 10-11 on its back and very, very dangerous indeed. Irish Raptor is an interesting one. Seems to love Aintree and decent ground. 2nd and 1st respectively in terms of last two Topham's, that said hiked 10 and 8 pounds respectively for his efforts. Never done anything past 133 mark and Handicapper has probably found him out on 141. 10-10 will be a nice race weight though and proven over the fences, so would not discard completely. Razor Royale excellent latest win in RPC, but never gone beyond 25 furlongs, so difficult to judge and pure guess work as to whether has the necessary stamina for this. Again 10-10 nice race weight. Hello Bud, won last year's Scottish but now 12 and done very little this season after the winning hike and may well have been his swansong then, although proven stamina would give a shout if put in career best performance (especially off a nice weight of 10-9). Which leaves Iris de Balme, very good finish to 2008 season winning Scottish and also 4th at Sandown. Then out whole of last season and only 2 poor prep runs this season, thus easily opposed (even if 10-9 is a nice weight).
Here is my ante post national bets for what it's worth.
Mon Mome
Comply Or Die
Silver Birch
Mon Mome
Comply Or Die
Silver Birch
At least, these are the 3 main value bets out there. All 3 could run out winners at very tasty prices.
Interesting stuff patrao but can you try and use paragraphs a bit more please :D
Looks like mon momme could end up top weight
11.10
Though the bottom weight maybe only a stone lower
Hum
Thought he had a hard race today in the gold cup
:)
11.10
Though the bottom weight maybe only a stone lower
Hum
Thought he had a hard race today in the gold cup
:)
One contributer has noted that according to trends "nothing can win this year".
Sorry but after about 4 years banging on about the folly of blindly looking at trends, there is a major problem with predicting future results from past results and trying to pick winners from apparent trends is that there is a major problem with the basic logic of the theory.
The problem is that it is complete b0llox.
Trends meant that Red Rum could not possibly win 3 nationals & could not win aged 12, and could not win because it was 100 years since a jockey with brown eyes had won 3 nationals in 5 years etc etc etc.
Get a grip chaps and chapesses for heavens' sakes.
Sorry but after about 4 years banging on about the folly of blindly looking at trends, there is a major problem with predicting future results from past results and trying to pick winners from apparent trends is that there is a major problem with the basic logic of the theory.
The problem is that it is complete b0llox.
Trends meant that Red Rum could not possibly win 3 nationals & could not win aged 12, and could not win because it was 100 years since a jockey with brown eyes had won 3 nationals in 5 years etc etc etc.
Get a grip chaps and chapesses for heavens' sakes.
Get a grip COT - every time you read a horses form to find a bet your using the past to predict the future. Same thing old chap.
Pigeon Island was the strongest trend pick in the Grand Annual, was available at 40/1 ths morning finished 1st.
Othermix was the strongest trend pick in the Jewson, was available at 50/1 all day, think I saw some 66/1 - finished 2nd.
Course, it depends on which trends you use and why, in some of the races there was a compressed handicap which meant 0 or only 1 or only 2 horse qualified on ratings from previous races. You use it as a guide, as yourself why this trend has occurred and create a shortlist from that logic.
Othermix was the strongest trend pick in the Jewson, was available at 50/1 all day, think I saw some 66/1 - finished 2nd.
Course, it depends on which trends you use and why, in some of the races there was a compressed handicap which meant 0 or only 1 or only 2 horse qualified on ratings from previous races. You use it as a guide, as yourself why this trend has occurred and create a shortlist from that logic.
With Gone to Lunch now doubtful, would remain confident with Arbor and Ballyfitz, but would add State of Play and after Cheltenham possibly the Package aswell.
lordnoise
There is a major difference between working out which contenders in a race have got the best chance or are trading at advantageous prices etc by looking at the actual race contenders themselves, and trying to work out the horses that might win a race by looking at previous trends a race has produced.
For example, I bet you could look at the names of all National winning jockeys and find that no jockey with more than 2 christian names has ever won. Or that a jockey with green eyes has never won. Does this mean that a horse with a green eyed jockey has less chance this year?
Last year I seem to recall that all the trends were trashed by a French bred with a big weight winning easily. Mon Mome didn't know that he couldn't win because of where he was born, and amazingly for the trends experts, you have to conclude he won because he stayed well, was well handicapped on his best form and liked the big fences. The fact that lower weighted horses had in recent years run well, or that french breds had never won the National had absolutley no bearing whatever on Mon Mome's chances last eyar and won't have any this year either.
There is a major difference between working out which contenders in a race have got the best chance or are trading at advantageous prices etc by looking at the actual race contenders themselves, and trying to work out the horses that might win a race by looking at previous trends a race has produced.
For example, I bet you could look at the names of all National winning jockeys and find that no jockey with more than 2 christian names has ever won. Or that a jockey with green eyes has never won. Does this mean that a horse with a green eyed jockey has less chance this year?
Last year I seem to recall that all the trends were trashed by a French bred with a big weight winning easily. Mon Mome didn't know that he couldn't win because of where he was born, and amazingly for the trends experts, you have to conclude he won because he stayed well, was well handicapped on his best form and liked the big fences. The fact that lower weighted horses had in recent years run well, or that french breds had never won the National had absolutley no bearing whatever on Mon Mome's chances last eyar and won't have any this year either.
Trends can make you do some silly things betting imo. If a strong trend - must have been placed last time out , or must have had at least 4 runs during the season, or must not be above 11 stones in the handicap, you can end up ruling out the best horse in the race, and then bemoan your luck that the trend has not stood the test of time.
trends are a lazy way of picking horses. There is no substitute for hard work with a DVD and a form book - ask Tom Segal.
trends are a lazy way of picking horses. There is no substitute for hard work with a DVD and a form book - ask Tom Segal.
There is no doubt that trends can be a lazy way of analysing a race. For myself I live overseas so I dont get to watch the racing and I dont have time to watch replays of all relevant races. However one can be just as lazy going through a race using the formbook - it all depends how much time you want to put in to it.
What the trends give you is a profile of the type of horse that wins....it is hardly a surprise that horses that have a relatively low weight, have previously won over long distances, are fit and in form win the race. What is perhaps surprising is that so few horses each year have this profile....or perhaps that horses clearly dont fit the profile are sometimes sent off at short prices.
Having updated my analysis for Cheltenham results, not a single horse fits all my trends. All that means is that no horse has the "perfect" profile, so now I will look for horses that come close - e.g. they may have a good 4th instead of a 3rd in their recent form; they may have only 3 runs in the season but have always been successful after being lightly raced.
What the trends give you is a profile of the type of horse that wins....it is hardly a surprise that horses that have a relatively low weight, have previously won over long distances, are fit and in form win the race. What is perhaps surprising is that so few horses each year have this profile....or perhaps that horses clearly dont fit the profile are sometimes sent off at short prices.
Having updated my analysis for Cheltenham results, not a single horse fits all my trends. All that means is that no horse has the "perfect" profile, so now I will look for horses that come close - e.g. they may have a good 4th instead of a 3rd in their recent form; they may have only 3 runs in the season but have always been successful after being lightly raced.
The colour of a horses eyes obviously have nothing to do with a horses ability to race COT. If trends mean anything they have to relate logically to a horses ability or the conditions in which it races.
In Mon Momes case it being a French bred may have been perceived as a negative given their poor relatively showing in past renewals. As I saw it there could have been for 2 reasons for it being a negative. A genetic one - French breds having had their staying ability bred out of them due to a lack of opportunities over there - and a training method one - many FR breds race as 3yos on bad ground and are burnt out in later years.
The first didnt really make sense when you consider how many top class staying FR bred hurdlers there have been while the second couldnt apply in MMs case - he'd raced only once in France as a 4yo and then raced normally in the UK.
BTW he carried 11 st (Hedgehunter carried 11st 1lb) had finished a 4 length second in the Welsh Nat ( historically a key trial) and had proved he was still improving by bettering his Welsh Nat RPR in winning a competitve handicap at Cheltenham in the year he won the GN.
So while conventional form shtudents (and many trend followers) were laying him at 300 some of us were backers. Not by following trends slavishly as if set in stone but by making an attempt to understand the reasons behind them.
In Mon Momes case it being a French bred may have been perceived as a negative given their poor relatively showing in past renewals. As I saw it there could have been for 2 reasons for it being a negative. A genetic one - French breds having had their staying ability bred out of them due to a lack of opportunities over there - and a training method one - many FR breds race as 3yos on bad ground and are burnt out in later years.
The first didnt really make sense when you consider how many top class staying FR bred hurdlers there have been while the second couldnt apply in MMs case - he'd raced only once in France as a 4yo and then raced normally in the UK.
BTW he carried 11 st (Hedgehunter carried 11st 1lb) had finished a 4 length second in the Welsh Nat ( historically a key trial) and had proved he was still improving by bettering his Welsh Nat RPR in winning a competitve handicap at Cheltenham in the year he won the GN.
So while conventional form shtudents (and many trend followers) were laying him at 300 some of us were backers. Not by following trends slavishly as if set in stone but by making an attempt to understand the reasons behind them.
The colour of a horses eyes obviously have nothing to do with a horses ability to race COT. If trends mean anything they have to relate logically to a horses ability or the conditions in which it races.
In Mon Momes case it being a French bred may have been perceived as a negative given their poor relatively showing in past renewals. As I saw it there could have been for 2 reasons for it being a negative. A genetic one - French breds having had their staying ability bred out of them due to a lack of opportunities over there - and a training method one - many FR breds race as 3yos on bad ground and are burnt out in later years.
The first didnt really make sense when you consider how many top class staying FR bred hurdlers there have been while the second couldnt apply in MMs case - he'd raced only once in France as a 4yo and then raced normally in the UK.
BTW he carried 11 st (Hedgehunter carried 11st 1lb) had finished a 4 length second in the Welsh Nat ( historically a key trial) and had proved he was still improving by bettering his Welsh Nat RPR in winning a competitve handicap at Cheltenham in the year he won the GN.
So while conventional form shtudents (and many trend followers) were laying him at 300 some of us were backers. Not by following trends slavishly as if set in stone but by making an attempt to understand the reasons behind them.
In Mon Momes case it being a French bred may have been perceived as a negative given their poor relatively showing in past renewals. As I saw it there could have been for 2 reasons for it being a negative. A genetic one - French breds having had their staying ability bred out of them due to a lack of opportunities over there - and a training method one - many FR breds race as 3yos on bad ground and are burnt out in later years.
The first didnt really make sense when you consider how many top class staying FR bred hurdlers there have been while the second couldnt apply in MMs case - he'd raced only once in France as a 4yo and then raced normally in the UK.
BTW he carried 11 st (Hedgehunter carried 11st 1lb) had finished a 4 length second in the Welsh Nat ( historically a key trial) and had proved he was still improving by bettering his Welsh Nat RPR in winning a competitve handicap at Cheltenham in the year he won the GN.
So while conventional form shtudents (and many trend followers) were laying him at 300 some of us were backers. Not by following trends slavishly as if set in stone but by making an attempt to understand the reasons behind them.
people who dont use any trends are equally lazy imo....its a package of all the info avaliable to us ,out there. ( although i dont use doasage myself..but thats due to a lack of understanding )
but i willstill look at someone elses opinion on that....but for me form reading / trends go hand in hand for my quest for winners.
but i willstill look at someone elses opinion on that....but for me form reading / trends go hand in hand for my quest for winners.
Its amazing looking through Ballyfitzs form just how well in he is here. 143 is more than fair but I just can't see him getting round. The only hope is the better ground. 66's is very tempting.
agree reefer....the price reflects his chance of jumping round....but if he did...thats some price then...
trev - you not like snowy? meets the trends and is in far better form this year
ted got nothing against him what so ever....infact i'm amazed at some of his runs over shorter this yr.
Seems
State of play is alive and
Cant buy time is to be ridden by Macoy
:)
State of play is alive and
Cant buy time is to be ridden by Macoy
:)
Snowy Morning all the way for me. Backed him at 40s and was delighted the handicapper was so lenient with him by dropping him a pound or two. He's been running at inadequate trips all season, hasn't even been put in the race a couple of times but finishes his races really well. Jumping has been sound too which has been his main question mark.
I've backed Ballyfitz a few times with varying degrees of success. His jumping is simply not good enough to win a National.
I've backed Ballyfitz a few times with varying degrees of success. His jumping is simply not good enough to win a National.
What has happened to Ilnamars revised selections , I always value his views ?
Is there a problem with Vic Venturi out to 25's on here?
Ilnamar 21 Mar 07:56
Having updated my analysis for Cheltenham results, not a single horse fits all my trends. All that means is that no horse has the "perfect" profile, so now I will look for horses that come close - e.g. they may have a good 4th instead of a 3rd in their recent form; they may have only 3 runs in the season but have always been successful after being lightly raced.
AS still meets all the trends, no?
Having updated my analysis for Cheltenham results, not a single horse fits all my trends. All that means is that no horse has the "perfect" profile, so now I will look for horses that come close - e.g. they may have a good 4th instead of a 3rd in their recent form; they may have only 3 runs in the season but have always been successful after being lightly raced.
AS still meets all the trends, no?
Only thing AS 'fails' on in my trends is 4-6 runs that season (15/15) - although the May Punchestown run was 'technically' this season
deep/H what about the previous races to have run in that alot seem to be using in their nat. trends now....ie top 4 henn,irsh nat etc.
you 2 using any of that...think AR does iirc ?
you 2 using any of that...think AR does iirc ?
The rule is:
12. Top 5 finish in Hennessy
OR Top 3 in Irish, Scots or Welsh National
OR Top 2 in a race over Aintree National fences
OR 3+ Chase wins at 3m+ (one being at 3m 4f+)
AS just fails on the last count with one of his chase wins coming over 20f.
12. Top 5 finish in Hennessy
OR Top 3 in Irish, Scots or Welsh National
OR Top 2 in a race over Aintree National fences
OR 3+ Chase wins at 3m+ (one being at 3m 4f+)
AS just fails on the last count with one of his chase wins coming over 20f.
Big Buck's
Posted Today @ 14:00
thanks
interesting because I can't see how he's not getting at least 2 of my top 4.
More dubious given Snowy M has to be in there regardless of any tweaking.
thats his response to the thread starter
Posted Today @ 14:00
thanks
interesting because I can't see how he's not getting at least 2 of my top 4.
More dubious given Snowy M has to be in there regardless of any tweaking.
thats his response to the thread starter
Yes, that's VK's trends - I use:
Won Listed/Graded Chase (14/16) - AS won Porterstown (Grade C)
The two exceptions were - Lord Gyllene (runner-up in G2 & G3) & Royal Athlete (3rd in Gold Cup)
Won Listed/Graded Chase (14/16) - AS won Porterstown (Grade C)
The two exceptions were - Lord Gyllene (runner-up in G2 & G3) & Royal Athlete (3rd in Gold Cup)
I think Hello Bud misses cause he's shown feck all this season tbh :|
Arbor Supreme wins the Porterstown Grade C chase. This is a 0-140 handicap roughly equivalent to one of our Class 2 handicaps. I think theres a confusion between Grade 1,2,3 and Grade A,B,C here. Or am I plain wrong ? Can someone clarify ?
lordnoise, it's a difficult one - Irish runners are usually given higher marks by UK handicapper, so I use Graded/Listed races (whatever the rating) in the respective countries.
Can't speak for others
Re: AS - the two long-distance wins have to be regarded as a positive imo
Can't speak for others
Re: AS - the two long-distance wins have to be regarded as a positive imo
He'd be THE trends horse in race along with BFT if hed placed in last years Irish National. As it is he was never going in the race - wonder what went wrong ?
Still interested if anyone can clarify what the equivalent of Grade A,B,C handicaps in Ireland are over here ...
Still interested if anyone can clarify what the equivalent of Grade A,B,C handicaps in Ireland are over here ...
Hi Deep, which horses are on your shortlist mate?
lordnoise - i addressed AS 's run in the irish national with you previously. hth
deep - any others catch ur fancy ?:|
deep - any others catch ur fancy ?:|
Plat
Happy with the AS news today :)
Must admit Ive backed him as well as SM, now reckon SM is over priced @ 27.
Had a nibble on VV today already traded out.
Pretty much done now, however do fear BFT, but hes too short @ 8/1 for a race like this.
Happy with the AS news today :)
Must admit Ive backed him as well as SM, now reckon SM is over priced @ 27.
Had a nibble on VV today already traded out.
Pretty much done now, however do fear BFT, but hes too short @ 8/1 for a race like this.
hey terry, like to see support alright and im up to my neck on him tbh. SM is a horse ive always liked but he has never really attained the same form from his novice days imo. AS is more progressive but i might save on SM
platinni - must have missed your posting on AS and the Irish GN. Can you repeat please ?
cant find it. i referred to irish national being less classy so being off 140+ there is not the same as 140 in the english. particularly for a young horse. case and pt was thousand stars who was well beaten in the pierse off a top weight, english handicapper leaves him alone and nails the winner and placers. he boots in off a lowish weight, v similar to AS. impossible task in the IGN but off a welther in the english
Thanks. I take your point but it does beg the question why they would bother to run at all.
why run any horses? they probably gave him a shot as they thought he was that good? pressure from owners? who knows
Worth a punt the trends support it and if ap is on with JP's money it will be 8-1 on the day
4-6 runs in the season - 15/15
So a horse that has had 3 or 7 runs can't possibly win because of this trend, even if it jumps best, has a stone in hand, & jumps the last fence a distance clear.
Presumably the brute then does a Devon Loch because it cannot win because the trend says so.
oh dear oh dear oh dear
So a horse that has had 3 or 7 runs can't possibly win because of this trend, even if it jumps best, has a stone in hand, & jumps the last fence a distance clear.
Presumably the brute then does a Devon Loch because it cannot win because the trend says so.
oh dear oh dear oh dear
no ones saying it cant win, the trend is an indication of how fit the horse has to be and the last 15 winners have obliged. maybe this years wont oblige (State of Play for example) but its still useful info.
Patronising ****
;)
Patronising ****
;)
Looking into the logic behind the number of runs stat I'd be tempted to ditch it this year. Weve just been through the worst Winter in 30 years so were told - many well layed plans will have been ruined.
Or maybe it would that make it more relevant for horses who have managed to get a few runs into them?
Your right of course ak but I would never let one trend put me off if everything else was right. Add in the wide availability of AW gallops nowadays and its one of those trends that might not be as important as it was 10 years ago.
I've backed SofP and best win came going completely fresh after a long lay off and the trainer vindicates this. First time back at the mark of the victory speaking about here and 5 lbs well in on last year's performance. Great chance at the end of the day. In terms of trends, last year dispelled the French one and also the ridiculously long odds one, so whats to say this year will not dispel the lack of runs trend? Not saying trends are not helpful, but used too strictly could go against just as easily as disregarding completely can be a**-up. At the end of the day its using all info out there etc and then hoping for a bit of luck aswell!
I've a lot of respect for StOP (LOL) especially as he was hampered at 2nd Bechers last year like Mon Mome was the year before he won. But for a horse that does run well fresh he put a shocker in behind Denman in the Hennessey this year. Whats the shout from the stable ?
Wouldn't have helped his chance here if he'd won a good race in the Henessey would it :-)
re: hello bud, i take the point about having not placed in previous 3 runs but thought the cheltenham run more than respectable while previous runs since becher chase were on unsuitably heavy ground.
best form is in spring on better ground. thought it took to national fences very well, is guaranteed to stay the trip, nice weight plus trainer is flying and has trained 2 winners of this race before. overpriced imo
best form is in spring on better ground. thought it took to national fences very well, is guaranteed to stay the trip, nice weight plus trainer is flying and has trained 2 winners of this race before. overpriced imo
Especially as he won the Hennessey on 06 off 145 (3lbs less). That poor run and the fact that hes obviously had problems over the years means I'd want to hear something positive from the stable before backing him.
Been keeping an eye on the thread; what are the horses that meet the trends?
I think ive got Dooneys Gate, Ballyfitz, Equus Maximum, Arbor Supreme and Irish Raptor???
I think ive got Dooneys Gate, Ballyfitz, Equus Maximum, Arbor Supreme and Irish Raptor???
I'm using 1 main trend at the mo that has given 9 of the last 11 winners. Am now giving some serious thought of the best way to narrow it down further. Of these, the ones that are probably too high in the weights are: Notre Pere, Mon Mome, Black Appalachi,
Whoops, wrong button.............and Comply or Die.
The borderline ones on weight are Niche Market, Tricky Trickster, and Dream Alliance.
The ones at the weights who do qualify are: My Will, Snowy Morning,Character Building, Eric's Charm, King John's Castle, Arbor Supreme,
The borderline ones on weight are Niche Market, Tricky Trickster, and Dream Alliance.
The ones at the weights who do qualify are: My Will, Snowy Morning,Character Building, Eric's Charm, King John's Castle, Arbor Supreme,
Damn! Done it again! ....and Maljimar. All guaranteed a run.
Hello Bud, Flintoff and a few others need to make the cut. :)
Hello Bud, Flintoff and a few others need to make the cut. :)
The problem that I have with trends is that they are quite often retrospective.
Before Hedgehunter won the National everybody was saying that no horse over 11 stone could win.
Low and behold, a year later the trend is increased to 11-1 to convieniently include his result.
What happens if a horse wins of 11-2 this year? Just bump the trend up 1 more pound for next Season.
And what about the French bred Stat? I suppose we can all forget about Mon Momes fluke win last year eh?
Imo the race is not the same as it was 10 years ago. Compression of the weights will surely see one of the top weights win this soon.
For all the doubters out there, answer this question....
Would Hedgehunter have won the National with more weight?
Anyone who says no is completely**ers imho.
Trends rightly have a place when analysing a race, but they should not be to the exclusion of all other information imho.
Before Hedgehunter won the National everybody was saying that no horse over 11 stone could win.
Low and behold, a year later the trend is increased to 11-1 to convieniently include his result.
What happens if a horse wins of 11-2 this year? Just bump the trend up 1 more pound for next Season.
And what about the French bred Stat? I suppose we can all forget about Mon Momes fluke win last year eh?
Imo the race is not the same as it was 10 years ago. Compression of the weights will surely see one of the top weights win this soon.
For all the doubters out there, answer this question....
Would Hedgehunter have won the National with more weight?
Anyone who says no is completely**ers imho.
Trends rightly have a place when analysing a race, but they should not be to the exclusion of all other information imho.
If your uncomfortable about the 11st or 11st 1lb trend look at the weight thing from another angle. No horse has won carrying more than 12lbs above bottom weight in the last 20 years. For those who can be bothered I've posted some more stats about the sort of horse who places carrying over 11st on the 'succinct analysis' thread on the Antepost forum.
Have had a read already lord, and tbh that idea makes a whole lot more sense to me.
Still, I am going against the grain this year.
Best of luck to you
Still, I am going against the grain this year.
Best of luck to you
And to you poc :) Just a reminder for folks. In the last 20 years no horse has won or placed within 15L of the winner of the GN carrying 11st or more without either having run well in the GN before or running reasonably in either the Cheltenham Gold Cup or Irish Hennessy. Amazing but true ...
Your right alex. I originally did the stats looking at horses carrying over 11st 1lb then checked back and thought they worked for 11st and over. Forgot about Mon Mome last year though - it pays him a great complement imo and makes you wonder what would have happened when he carried 10.11 the previous year and was hampered at Bechers second time round. Works for 11st 1lb and over though if you count Hedgehunters fall at the final fence in 3rd as a good run in the GN !
Would Hedgehunter have won the National with more weight?
Anyone who says no is completely**ers imho.
Hey Cake, hope all good with you.
In regard of the above, I don't know the answer, but I always consider additonal weight this way;
If I asked you to stay awake for an hour, no doubt you could do it. But if I asked you to stay awake for an hour after you had not slept for say 24 hours then it might not be so easy. Same with say 48 hours etc. You don't know the point at which the extra hour becomes so painful, it is like torture. Same with weight. At some point, 11st, 11st 1, 11st 2 etc, an extra 1/2 pound becomes unmanageable.
GL for saturday
:)
Anyone who says no is completely**ers imho.
Hey Cake, hope all good with you.
In regard of the above, I don't know the answer, but I always consider additonal weight this way;
If I asked you to stay awake for an hour, no doubt you could do it. But if I asked you to stay awake for an hour after you had not slept for say 24 hours then it might not be so easy. Same with say 48 hours etc. You don't know the point at which the extra hour becomes so painful, it is like torture. Same with weight. At some point, 11st, 11st 1, 11st 2 etc, an extra 1/2 pound becomes unmanageable.
GL for saturday
:)
Re:Weight, have you chaps read paul nicholls' book? He basically says a few pounds here or there makes no difference, and talks about how he and others used to ** the scales if they were a bit heavy sometimes. He felt jockey strength and horse's jumping has more bearing on the result. But then he hasn't won a national yet has he?
How many of the original qualifiers are left in at this stage?
For me trends are important; they are my angle into a race and I think form is way over-played and therefore overbet.
For me trends are important; they are my angle into a race and I think form is way over-played and therefore overbet.
Ellerslie George seems to tick most boxes proper jockey and apart from last race in good form this year.
Charlton2005 06 Apr 18:34
Would Hedgehunter have won the National with more weight?
Anyone who says no is completely**ers imho.
Hey Cake, hope all good with you.
In regard of the above, I don't know the answer, but I always consider additonal weight this way;
If I asked you to stay awake for an hour, no doubt you could do it. But if I asked you to stay awake for an hour after you had not slept for say 24 hours then it might not be so easy. Same with say 48 hours etc. You don't know the point at which the extra hour becomes so painful, it is like torture. Same with weight. At some point, 11st, 11st 1, 11st 2 etc, an extra 1/2 pound becomes unmanageable.
GL for saturday
Hey mate, all good here but on a poor run tbh.
I take where you are coming from but in that race the top weight finished second.
In all likelihood if Hedgehunter couldn't carry the extra weight(which I cannot believe), then the weight trend would have been smashed by Royal Auclair instead.
Tbh I was just trying to point out how misleading some stats are.
I would far rather somebody state that "9/10 horses have won with 11st or less" rather than manipulating it the following year to "10/10 carried 11-1 or less".
I hope Madison De Berlais wins, then we can have a new trend for next year. "10/10 winners had carried 11-10 or less" :p
Best of luck to you btw
Would Hedgehunter have won the National with more weight?
Anyone who says no is completely**ers imho.
Hey Cake, hope all good with you.
In regard of the above, I don't know the answer, but I always consider additonal weight this way;
If I asked you to stay awake for an hour, no doubt you could do it. But if I asked you to stay awake for an hour after you had not slept for say 24 hours then it might not be so easy. Same with say 48 hours etc. You don't know the point at which the extra hour becomes so painful, it is like torture. Same with weight. At some point, 11st, 11st 1, 11st 2 etc, an extra 1/2 pound becomes unmanageable.
GL for saturday
Hey mate, all good here but on a poor run tbh.
I take where you are coming from but in that race the top weight finished second.
In all likelihood if Hedgehunter couldn't carry the extra weight(which I cannot believe), then the weight trend would have been smashed by Royal Auclair instead.
Tbh I was just trying to point out how misleading some stats are.
I would far rather somebody state that "9/10 horses have won with 11st or less" rather than manipulating it the following year to "10/10 carried 11-1 or less".
I hope Madison De Berlais wins, then we can have a new trend for next year. "10/10 winners had carried 11-10 or less" :p
Best of luck to you btw
cryoftruth 19 Mar 23:35
One contributer has noted that according to trends "nothing can win this year".
Sorry but after about 4 years banging on about the folly of blindly looking at trends, there is a major problem with predicting future results from past results and trying to pick winners from apparent trends is that there is a major problem with the basic logic of the theory.
The problem is that it is complete b0llox.
Cry, with respect to all, THIS is not the thread to come on and talk about your opposition to trends. The OP tipped, in his first post, the first three past the post from 4 horses in Silver Birch's national. Sorry but you cannot argue with that and definitely not on here.
One contributer has noted that according to trends "nothing can win this year".
Sorry but after about 4 years banging on about the folly of blindly looking at trends, there is a major problem with predicting future results from past results and trying to pick winners from apparent trends is that there is a major problem with the basic logic of the theory.
The problem is that it is complete b0llox.
Cry, with respect to all, THIS is not the thread to come on and talk about your opposition to trends. The OP tipped, in his first post, the first three past the post from 4 horses in Silver Birch's national. Sorry but you cannot argue with that and definitely not on here.
What's happening to the forum FFT, cba to read about it. :)
Will all of the existing discussion posts and comments be migrated to the new forum platform?
We will migrate all threads with activity in the last 6 months. This means that we will migrate threads created in the last 6 months, as well as all threads that have been posted to in the last 6 months. However, due to the volume of threads and nature of the content on the Horse Racing forum, we will only be migrating threads that have been posted to in the last month.
We will migrate all threads with activity in the last 6 months. This means that we will migrate threads created in the last 6 months, as well as all threads that have been posted to in the last 6 months. However, due to the volume of threads and nature of the content on the Horse Racing forum, we will only be migrating threads that have been posted to in the last month.
TY
Can someone please find Money Tree's Breeders Cup 1-2-3 thread as well as his Mon Mome thread
:)
Can someone please find Money Tree's Breeders Cup 1-2-3 thread as well as his Mon Mome thread
:)
Money tree thread is a no go,won't let me bring it back
posted under his patent account, have brought it back :)
Patent 4888221 04 Apr 09:24
FREE BETS ARE FUN!!
Im laying Ap for the place his luck will not help him here today.
Mon mome is my win lay.
And if the funds are avaliable i will lay the pipe outsider that some fool was trying to ramp last night.
To see this in the "First Edition" state still makes me cry laughing.
FREE BETS ARE FUN!!
Im laying Ap for the place his luck will not help him here today.
Mon mome is my win lay.
And if the funds are avaliable i will lay the pipe outsider that some fool was trying to ramp last night.
To see this in the "First Edition" state still makes me cry laughing.
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