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the RPT was full of cr@p slow animals :0
rated it the fastest 2yo winner of the season in front of Canford Cliffs |
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I mainly disagree with virtually everyone on the quality of the RPT ... I believe the winner aside it was a very poor quality race for a mile and had middle distance types thoughout who lacked pace.
It gave a much more exaggerated impression of the winner than would have been given in the Dewhurst. It would have been really interesting to see SNA against specialist milers, speed animals to see how he measured up against them where the pace was on right from the start. Dont think he could have been laid up off the pace as much as he was in the RPT and be able to make the ground up so quickly in the Dewhurst, can he stay on the bridle close up off a v strong pace and kick off that? He may have won a length in the Dewhurst who knows and then we would be asking if anything in behind might improve past him over the winter. |
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Mind you I was saying last seasons Champion Hurdle form was poor mid last year while everyone was hyping it up and I obviously got that one wrong :)
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Kirk, my ratings suggest St Nicholas abbey would have won Dewhurst by 4 lengths.... and he was hardly all out to win at Doncaster whereas the Dewhurst group ran their little legs off.
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O'Brien won 5 of the last 7 2o Grp 1/2 contests open to colts from end of Sept in UK/France and Ireland, often sending more than one runner.
The Racing Post Trophy was one of the only races he sent just one runner. Can read a lot into that I think even apart from the actual result. (Similar to his Derby record when having just one runner) |
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He doesnt run his Guineas horses in the RPT either it is a Derby build-up. Dont think he would have won the Dewhurst by 4 lengths tbh we are talking chalk and cheese with the 2 races. He may be able to travel off a strong pace and still find that kick but to me he looked a middle distance horse kicking off a steady pace in the RPT. Different kettle of fish when it happens quicker over a mile he may just get bustled to keep with the pace, lose balance in the dip and be in a race before you know it.
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Watching Guineas over the years it is very very rare to see anything win it like he did the RPT, even Sea The Stars was in a race in the Guineas .. it all happens so quick and if you dont keep a good posi the ground is v hard to make up against speed animals. Just saying dont get carried away with either the speed of the animals in the RPT re a mile or comapring that race tactically with a Guineas where he will have to hold a position more critically than in the RPT where he could have been anywhere and still come through as the pace was poor.
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I couldn't have awarded him the 2yo rating of the season, Kirk, if it had been a slow pace at Doncaster, so disagree on that score.
If you think they went a slow pace, then St Nick did the impossible by putting clear daylight back to the second with decent rivals further back and must conclude he has devasting speed. Don't think you can have it both ways? |
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He didnt have good speed opponents that's the whole point .. he beat potential middle-distance horses over a mile he didnt beat speed animals hence he could come through and easily do them for toe at the finish. He wont win a Guineas like that the pace will be much stronger and you cant make the ground up so easy. Sea The Stars was no slouch and he didnt win the Guineas as easy as SNA won the RPT. That is because he was against true speed animals in the Guineas the 2 races are like chalk and cheese re pace, tactics, opponents (speed horses as opposed to middle distance horses).
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.. though I can see how people are deceived by this :)
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well gl with that opinion, kirk.
Unless it's the Coolmore hype machine in flow, they believe the horse has speed to burn and always did so. Personally find O'Brien pretty straight forward and honest, and he was effusive as I've ever seen after Doncaster |
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.. speed to burn but not enough to run him in the Dewhurst :)
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gl mate ..
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If Canford Cliffs does get the mile imo he will take a lot of beating. That was some supposed "Off" Day to get beaten that closely by those two
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Agree with that zilzal1 ... really looking forward to seeing Canford Cliffs again. Dont think SNA will be too happy trying to lay up with him compared to Dunlop's middle distance horse Elusive Pimpernel do you? ;)
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St Nick's debut was over a mile way back in august, where he displayed his trademark acceleration in bad ground... a marathon trip for a 2o at that time of the season
Having taken in the mile Beresford next time, guess O'Brien saw no need to go back down in trip to the Dewhurst. It's often said by top trainers that most Derby winners have enough speed to win a Guineas. So even if the 3yo target was always the Derby, have no concerns with St Nick over a mile |
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Not too sure about that, i think Steinbeck is the ONLY horse i would take out of the Dewhurst though, im actually sweet on Tabassum for the 1000 at big odds, she also stayed stand side at HQ and imo would love quicker ground, he earlier victory was franked by the second and she looks to me as though the guineas will be her race.
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am a great fan of Canford Cliffs. Hope he trains on and gets back to Coventry Stks form, definitely below par in France
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Too Kirk that is
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Can you imagine being on SNA and there are so many different pace setters in the race in front of you .. which do you follow? You might have Awzaan and Canford Cliffs going off like scalded cats and stablemate Steinbeck just sitting in behind the lead we saw his early pace in the Dewhurst. Any of these could get home I wouldnt be confident SNA can keep tabs on all of them re pace as he will have to quicken off a fast pace. If he is ridden like he was in the RPT he may not have time to get up in a GuineasTotally different race and different type of horse and totally different track to the RPT.
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i would imagine Hughes getting a lead on Canford, the last thing he will be doing is setting a crazy pace and if he does get the lead he'll try and slow it down
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..and Arcano going a fast pace. There was nothing like any of these horses in the RPT.
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Agree think he will be just off the lead ready to release the explosion. SNA kept quiet further back in the pack he is going to find him, Steinbeck, Arcano and Awzaan harder to get past than Elusive Pimpernel that's for certain.
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now you have finally mentioned the winner ARCANO .
craven stakes then guineas . simples. |
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You all must need glass's SNA is a class above all of these,C.Cliffs wont stay,Arcano the same,Awzaan best I could see is a place,the great Steinbeck will be way down the field unplaced thats if he runs,I agree with SnS,hyped to death,I bet next May JM will be on SNA,SH on Steinbeck,then the TC is on the cards!I said last year on another forum,I know someone at B.Doyle,Steinbeck was and is very FRAGILE,but people dont really want to hear that,SNA will be the main horse in the 2000'they think a lot of him!
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But if the pace in the Guineas is really fast surely that will be a big problem for Steinbeck who looked to run out of stamina over 7f in the Dewhurst.
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Steinbeck is a galloper who wants a lead into his race, a fast pace is perfect for him. I don't get this stamina thing after all he was only beaten half a length in the end and actually kept on under hands and heels admirably once the others had gone past. Those who raced prominently were never going to take off in a finish and I thought it was a great effort.
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prima arcano on running style and more importantly on pedigree is
screaming out for a mile.dont know were you get it wont stay from. |
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Most of the 20-1 is going for Workforce, 16-1 about a once raced Maiden winner . Take note.
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I thought he may be more a Derby type
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Ben maybe, but he is from the Mr Prospector sire line, who has yet to produce a Derby winner .
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True, will certainly be interesting if they decide he won't get the Derby trip though can see the Dante route being a preference for Stoute.
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Why not the Guineas first , i.e. The Golan route.
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The Lay P,I suppose you might be right on paper but to me he looks like a complete 2yold sprinter type as does C.Cliffs,Arcano's 2nd dam is by Dominion,a gret source of speed,but throw in Daylami and you might be right but imo he wont stay,I think he could run into a place.
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Would be interesting, I'd like to know plans though before I get involved.
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get a life, kirk eh.
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You can guarantee that whatever wins the Guineas - any Classic in fact - that Kirk will at worst have had a "late cover" on it.
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My book on the 2000 is ok but nothing on previous years (depending on the result) and 15/2 Special Duty not too bad with a smaller amount on Lillie Langtry. Thanks for asking ;)
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CANFORD , the speed horse and remember Hannon a master at teaching a horse to settle
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'' Le Sorcier 11 Jan 14:20
SNA no chance of running in 2000 Guineas. '' Laying him at 7/2 must be like finding money in the street then. How much have you layed him for, mate? £1K? £5k? |