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Just kidding ben, consistently superb the views you post on here. However just be careful my friend - a word out of place on the Antepost these days and you'll get Charlton 2005 on your case giving you one of his "Objectivity Lectures" :0
Cape Blanco - an unbeaten Galileo colt who's shown potential in his three races to date. He has scope to do well in 2010 imvho. Charlton I hope that statement is acceptable under the rules of objectivity that you insist upon on here. |
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:D
Good stuff sof, hoping CB along with Steinbeck will let Ballydoyle focus on the Derby with St Nick but we'll see. Sure 2010 will be a good year for your boys, they seem to monopolise the colts, were unlucky to have a superstar facing them last year, have to wait another 20 years for one like him! |
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For sure ben, 2009 the year of Sea The Stars and in many ways it was unlucky for Fame And Glory, Mastercraftsman and Rip Van Winkle that their Classic year coincided with his. What a truly exceptional colt he was STS, but I'm pleased he retired :)
As you say 2010 packed with potential for Ballydoyle. St Nicholas Abbey, Steinbeck and Jan Vermeer all top quality colts. Every year I make the trip to Epsom for a couple of days in the Queens Stand with Mrs soldieroffortune. It seems an age now since I threw my top hat high in the air for High Chaparral, but this year more than ever I'm full of hope and expectation :) |
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Love your enthusiasm for the sport SOF but in fairness to Charlton your posts can be slightly biased towards Ballydole inmates & a degree of objectivity goes out of the window.
Not sure what your line of work is but im sure Coolmoore would be interested in you writing their stallion brochure. |
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Why not aim SNA for the Irish 2000G , more likely to get soft ground or even heavy. There a few a horses to run well in the Irish 2000 before winning the Derby, most recently New Approach.
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Sorry, I know this thread is meant to be all about Steinbeck, but inevitably St Nicholas Abbey comes into the equation when considering the 2000 Guineas. There's a small nagging doubt in my mind concerning SNA's stamina for the Derby, which is why I prefer his chances in the 2000 Guineas and think it would be madness not to run him at Newmarket. I'm certain that SNA will get 10f, no problem. The doubts start to creep in when considering the full Derby trip of 12f. He may be good enough to win the Derby even if he doesn't truly get the trip, but that's another matter.
The doubts stem from his breeding. After his Racing Post Trophy win I looked up SNA's pedigree and noticed that a few weeks earlier his full sister Cascata (trained by Luca Cumani) had appeared not to stay 12f when tried over the trip on her final start of the season at Newmarket - she had earlier won over a mile on the all-weather and had run well over 10f. Both Cascata and SNA are by Montjeu out of Leaping Water. SNA's dam Leaping Water (by Sure Blade out of Flamenco Wave) is an unraced half-sister to Starborough (top miler, by Soviet Star), Ballingarry (10f winner at two, winner of Gr.1 Canadian International over 12f at three, by Sadler's Wells), Aristotle (Racing Post Trophy winner at two, 10f performer, failed to stay 12f in Derby at three, by Sadler's Wells) and Spanish Falls (12f winner at three, by Belmez). Leaping Water's sire Sure Blade was a top class miler (by Kris) and her dam Flamenco Wave was a top class 6f juvenile, winner of the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes (in the days when it was run over 6f), who did not get the mile (or perhaps failed to train on) when finishing last of 13 to Ensconse in the 1988 Irish 1000 Guineas. Leaping Water never raced, but on breeding could have been expected to get a mile, but probably no further. Her dam Flamenco Wave did produce some very good middle distance horses (by strong stamina influences), as noted above, but also produced Starborough when matched with the miler Soviet Star. So it's very likely that Sure Blade and Flamenco Wave would have produced another miler. This female line raises some slight doubts about SNA's ability to last out a truly run 12f in the Derby, which is why I believe his best chances of classic glory rest in the 2000 Guineas (or the French or Irish equivalents) and the French Derby (over 10f). Aidan O'Brien tends to send his best colts to Newmarket rather than France, so I expect to see SNA line up alongside Steinbeck at HQ, with Fencing Master and Beethoven possibly heading over the channel. The question then arises: which one would Johnny Murtagh ride? We have many weeks and months in which to speculate. Personally, I can't see how he would get off the Guineas favourite (SNA). |
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Agree with that James, his pedigree also suggests doubts about training on and as push hints would almost certainly prefer cut and I feel he's worth taking on as a 3 year old until he proves otherwise.
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Jan Vermeer cut to 12-1 from 14-1 for the Derby withs Billies today, notice Lads are shortest at 10-1 about Van.
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No chance St Nicholas Abbey runs in Guineas.
Ran 3 times as a 2yo. All over 1 mile. O'Brien always runs his no.1 Guineas contender in the Dewhurst. It's not rocket science. Steinbeck to be prepared for the Guineas and SNA for the Derby. |
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spot on le sorcier.
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I think Stoute will run Workforce in a Guineas trial, before deciding which route to go . If he goes straight for the Guineas take note.
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Le Sorcier: Dancing Brave's two races as a juvenile were both over a mile, it didn't stop him winning the Guineas before going on to greater things over middle distances. Prior to the Racing Post Trophy, I'm sure that Steinbeck was Ballydoyle's number one Guineas contender, but the pecking order may have changed since that brilliant performance by SNA at Doncaster. He's got so much speed that I can't believe they won't run him at Newmarket. They're not averse to running their best two horses in the Guineas (remember Rock Of Gibraltar and Hawk Wing). This debate will doubtless continue until the final declaration stage...
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Dancing Brave is hardly a fair comparison. lol
SNA no chance of running in 2000 Guineas. Why would they when they have much better milers? Will reappear in the Ballysax possibly or the Derrinstown. |
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^ Much better milers - what the ones that finished in a heap in an awful Dewhurst.
Where is 'head in hands man' when you need him ;) |
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how can you say they have much better milers than SNA, 3- 0 = unbeaten, what more could he do?
If i was so sure he wouldnt run in 2000gns id be laying as much as i could at prices up to 6-1, and i am sure you would to. Truth is no one can be sure how good he is and if he will run in 2000gns. |
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awful Dewhurst?
time will tell. I maintain SNA will not run. |
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They did not run their RPTrophy winner in that Guineas ( Hawk Wings ).
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Yes, push, but the horse you refer to (High Chaparral) was much more stoutly bred (by Sadler's Wells out of an unraced mare who was by Darshaan out of a 12f performer) and won the RPT very much in the style of a horse that was going to relish middle distances at three. In that year both Hawk Wing (RPR 121) and Rock Of Gibraltar (RPR 121) were rated a few pounds above High Chaparral (RPR 116) on their juvenile form. It's a different story this time - St Nicholas Abbey (RPR 123) is comfortably the best of Ballydoyle's colts on juvenile form, well ahead of Jan Vermeer (RPR 118) and the Dewhurst runners Beethoven (RPR 118), Fencing Master (RPR 117) and Steinbeck (RPR 116). I haven't got a penny on SNA for the Guineas, so I have no financial interest in his participation, but I hope he turns up. The race would be diminished (as a contest and as a spectacle) by his absence.
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SNA has had 3 races , Steinbeck and Fencing Master only 2, both likely to progress an achieve better ratings given their inexperience.
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I would think that SNA will run in the Gns. I come to this conclusion from several thoughts.
1. SNA despite being by Montjeu is not guarenteed to stay the Derby trip, as so well illustraed by james above. 2. A Gns winner would be a huge boost to Montjeu as a sire.If you were to be extremely harsh on the horse ( I am one of his biggest admirers to which Bloodstock and Breeding regulars can attest) then you could say he lacks versatility as a sire. Usually gets 12f 3yo colts, albeit of the highest class. 3. A Gns win can then set him (SNA) on the road to a Triple Crown. A route they were keen to take with Hawk Wing and would quite nicely steal Sea The Stars' thunder as he ducked the St Leger. A Triple Crown winner would gold plate Montjeu's stud career. 4. There is a precedent fror this, they ran Horatio Nelson in the Gns before a tilt at the Derby, he again was not a cast iron certainty to stay the 12f so why pass up on a chance for a Classic victory? 5. The fact SNA stayed 1m as a 2yo would not put me off. If he could get a mile in Oct why would he suddenly need further by May 1st? I think this only confirms that he is high class horse, capapbe of beating his contempories at the CLassic distance. whether he would be able to beat the Gns field over a mile in july/Aug is an entirely different debate. the fact is he can run at grp 1 level over a mile, that form is in the book, the other challengers have to prove that they can. 6. Steinbeck may not be sound come Gns day. He is notoriously fragile, just like his sire. Fencing Master already has need of the blinkers, how many Classic winners needed headgear at 2yo? The only difference I could see is that they aim SNA at the French Derby with it's new 10f trip, however Hurricane Run has already won this and they are not going to strive to produce a competetior to him at stud. My thoughts only, and I am not really a betting person. I hope they run SNA as I would like to see a genuine Triple Crown horse and he has the connections to be one. |
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slick i agree with le sorcier sna has no chance of turning up for the
guineas. this is a high chaparal job all over again. as for the triple crown no one gives a flying **k about that these days. as was proved last year. |
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Slick?
Steinbeck notoriously fragile? Is he? SNA for the Triple Crown!!!! Absolutely ludicrous. No way Coolmore would reduce a Guineas/Derby winners value by running in a St Leger. The Triple Crown is dead. We really should have a new one incorporating the King George or the Arc perhaps? Won't matter anyway as SNA Will not run. Sorry. First run likely to be Ballysax, then Derrinstown. Just like O'Brien does with his Derby Colts. Just like he runs his 2000 Guineas ones in the Dewhurst. Trainers are predictable creatures. |
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It's not the maddest idea that Ballydoyle/Coolmore would want to try and quash some of STS hype by having a Triple Crown winner, but realistically it's still not likely to happen.
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derby arc and breeders cup thats the route they will go imo
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If you want to discuss the Triple Crown, cryoftruth started a good thread last year, I can ttt it for you if you want to add anything?
Jan Vermeer would probably be their Derrinstown horse and a Guineas prep would be acceptable for SNA and I think they may as well give it a go. I think they'll get Steinbeck ready for it though (possibly messed up not getting Rip 100% last year) whereas SNA will have other targets later on and be expected to improve for the run. That's if he trains on of course. |
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unclepuncle correct about Dewhurst, no more than a Grp 2 contest on my figs, and very similar to the bunch finish of 2008.
Thought that the 2008 version would do well to produce any Grp 1 winners at 3, have similar thoughts about the 2009 version. In the event, 2008 produced Lord Shanakill (Prix Jean Prat) and Rip Wan Winkle. (Only the latter could be considered true Grp 1 class) Looks a similar story in 2009, only Steinbeck, with a similar profile to Rip Van Winkle, looks capable of winning in Grp 1 company as a 3yo |
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I know Steinbeck was coming back form a long absence in the Dewhurst but even looking at the way the form of his debut win has worked out suggests he is nothing special.
If any of the front 3 in the Racing Post Trophy had run in the Dewhurst they would have gone off clear favourite - and imo would have won comfortably. The RPT was run on very decent ground this year and so was not the usual slog through the mud that the likes of High Chaparral won. I don't have a penny on SNA for the Guineas , but do have him for the Derby so from my own point of view I'd prefer a Derby prep - and that would also mean my two Guineas bets would have more chance of collecting :) But if SNA is aimed at the Guineas I don't see what can beat him - and so Ballydoyle would be mad not to try to emulate Sea The Stars. |
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How feasible will it be to see Steinbeck head for the Guineas, SNA go for the Dante and Jan Vermeer head for the Irish Derby trials route, with both the latter heading for Epsom?
Jan Vermeer I like a lot. |
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SNA for the Triple Crown!!!! Absolutely ludicrous. No way Coolmore would reduce a Guineas/Derby winners value by running in a St Leger. The Triple Crown is dead
You must have a short memory. Do you not remember the hype around Hawk Wing and his Triple Crown bid? I was near connections when HW lost 'his' gns and to see their faces you would not think that they also owned the winner. If you really think that Coolmore/Ballydoyle would not want a TC winner then you do not know Michael Tabor. To stand a TC winner would be an advertising dream, would quite neatly steal STS thunder (who is by a (great rival) Darley sire) crown Montjeu as the second coming of Northern Dancer who was the last sire to acheive it, and place Coolmore once again as the the home of World Class sires without compare. Think of all of the comparisions that sould be drawn between Vincent and Aidan, between Nijinsky and SNA, and Ballydoyle the thread linking them. Steinbeck is a fragile horse, why do you think he has been in his box all season? But he has been a useful hype horse for his sire, who has not produced a Gr 1 horse on his first crop. But with Steinbeck supposedly being the second coming of Pegasus they can book a lot of mares to Footsteps before he is proved otherwise. Steinbeck is dream for any stallion owner, talk him up, produce a wide-margin maiden win early in the season, issue up-beat bulletins throughout the year and any winner that they have can be 'not quite as good as Steinbeck'. Bring him out late on in the Dewhurst when they have a good idea of the opposition, and it is a no-lose situation. If he wins fantastic, but if he doesn't, "Well, he did need the run.It was very promising" and the hype can continue all winter whilst the nomination forms are being signed, all the way to the gns when the mares are already covered. There is no way Ballydoyle would NOT want a Dewhurst winner, or will leave the Dewhurst more as a prep race. If anyone seriously thinks that they are very naive to the breeding game. |
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Dewhurst was a prep for Rip Van Winkle.
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They got a Dewhurst winner didn't they? Steinbeck was always there for experience, every trainer knows to give their horse course experience of Newmarket because it's straight undulating mile is completely unique. Even the French bring their horses to the course at 2 if they intend on going for the Guineas (see Special Duty).
Steinbeck will have learnt plenty that day and given the way the race panned out (you didn't want to be prominent or on the rail) he ran an absolute blinder and it's pretty obvious that he will improve for it given he'd had one start and the opposition (bar Fencing Master) already had pattern race experience. He's far more than hype. |
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Dewhurst was a prep for Rip Van Winkle
So we were told ;-) Remember, Coolmore are the horse equivilent of Car Salesmen. Do you believe everything they tell you as well? They got a Dewhurst winner out of it didn't they? Which is why I said it was a no-lose situation. I am not saying that Steinbeck is useless, or that he won't run in/win the 2000gns. BUT I am very aware of how Coolmore operate and I do not take any statements from them at face value. I try to see what they have to gain from each statement, this can be very helpful and informative. Take away all of the 'spin' from Steinbeck, would he appeal to the same extent? |
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Do you really think I bet on hype? I look at the potential a horse has got and this guy is big and will develop physically with age. Thought it was a massive effort to get a horse of his style to win first time out (in a conditions race as well) and that showed his talent. I didn't back him based on my initial thoughts though. I backed him after the Dewhurst at 16/1 because to me that performance was massive. Going into the race I didn't fancy him at all, I thought he would be settled out back and just keep on but not beaten up (similar to Rip). However he bounced out the stalls racing alongside Chabal and Free Judgement who both faded very tamely. Free Judgement subsequently won a Group 3 showing the talent of horses who were alongside him but couldn't live with those condiitions. Steinbeck however galloped all the way to the line and to me that was the perfect prep. Given a tow into the race he may have even won.
Many dismiss the form of the race but I feel it is a fairly good standard with plenty of at least Group 2 standard horses in the field and I felt for his second ever performance that was a superb effort. To say it's all smoke and mirrors is wrong because they thought enough of him to chuck him into one of the toughest 2 yo Group 1s of the year on only his second start, I think he repsonded admirably. If you want further evidence of how highly they think of him, the stable jockey picked him and 2 of the 3 horses that finished in front of Steinbeck were from that stable and they're not usually wrong when they pick their best horses as Rip finally proved in the Sussex Stakes. |
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I am not suggesting that you bet on hype Ben 10. I think that in general your comments are well thought out and that you obv follow the game closely. My comments are not largely directed at yourself, more so the other posters who seem to hold rather strange ideas regarding how Coolmore work.
If you have looked at Steinbeck in the Dewhurst and feel that he is a good bet then that is a sound opinion based on the evidence of your eyes and your thoughts. Unfortunately many seem to rely more on what they read, or allow what they read to influence what they have seen, and when this comes from a large stallion making machine then that information needs to be taken in context. Whatever I think of Steinbeck, it does not change my view on SNA's participation. To my that is the interesting horse for the guineas. |
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Yeah SNA is very interesting for the Guineas (I agree he should go for it) but there was never a price on him up to now and if I do take him it will be merely as a cover for others on the day. I still have doubts about him training on but I do look at him more stringently simply because there's no margin on him. I do think he's too short for the Derby at this stage but when the rest of the field are a generic 20/1 you can't dig any value out of the market so won't play at the moment.
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I have backed SNA for the Derby and Steinbeck for the 2000 and hope they do not meet in May for financial reasons. I would just add that the Ballydoyle team after the Dewhurst virtually ignored the winner and went straight to JM for the smiles/pats on the back etc. It was quite bizarre but points to the familiarisation with Newmarket theory for their best chance of a guineas winner at that time. Whether SNA subsequently proved he is actually the best chance only time will tell - I for one would not expect there to be alot between them over a mile in May but the fragility of Steinbeck worries me.
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you're a predictable creature!
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I ilke Steinbeck.
Although he doesn't quite look as good as RVW did this time last year, he is quite promising and may well be capable of a good del more than he has shown, but he really needs to. The Dewhurst was an awful trial this year, with a load of horses in a heap and Steinbeck appearing to weaken. I must say I usually prefer a strong finisher myself. On the plus side though, he is a well regarded sort (very much like King Of Kings), and is a nice individual. However he is, maybe righty, a double figure price for the 2000 Guineas. His stable companion is 7/2 or 3/1 - SNA. (He is only 2/1 with the magicswine) The difference in price is easily understood. St Nicholas Abbey is proven over the trip, may improve and is easily the best 2yo from last season, maybe by half a stone, not allowing for the utter ease that he thrashed the RCP field. The RPT field don't forget looked a really decent bunch. A number were improving unbeaten and highly regarded sorts. Before the race it did look like a really hard race to call because there were so many already proven as top class, but who fell into the category of "could be anything". Look back at the race. St Nick cantered all the way until being shaken up and then left to canter home. The gulf in class was so obvious. he is undoubtedly a really top class animal and if only 3/4 fit, should win the 2000 Guineas very easily. I know Steinbeck may well be a group horse over a mile, but he is about10lbs behind SNA and that is a very conservative estimate too. I am not at all surprised that the magicswine go at least a point shorter than any other booky. They know SNA is a monster and want to take not a penny on him, even in ante post multiples. I don't blame them either. |
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Disagree with you, thought the RPT was full of cr@p slow animals. The Dewhurst was where it was at for milers and for only his second run in his life after a setback and making the running only to fade late Steinbeck turned in a tremendous run.
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Kirk
I'm not so sure we're miles apart. As I say I like Steinbeck, he has a load of scope and may well be a group horse next year. I am though of the view, having watched the RPT, that SNA is an amazing animal, maybe a great horse like Sea The Stars. He is already better than that horse was at the same stage by about a stone. I just remember the words of the stable staff - "one squeeze and he''ll take off". When JM asked SNA to quicken at Doncaster, he damn near fell off behind the brute, so quickly did he accelerate. I've been watching racing for the best part of 40 years, and the one quality that is easy to recognise is the abilty to quicken and win races. Horses with this abilty win out of turn, whether its flat or jumps, as their acceleration can win races others cannot. With SNA, he is bred to stay well, yet is blessed with a really top class turn of foot. If he arrives at HQ fit and well, he is a certainty imo. |