1000 Guineas (2010)

As stated previously I am a big Special Duty fan. The magic sign were offering 33/1 after her latest run, anyone interested might want to give them a call to see if it is still available. Just because a price isnt shown on the comparison sites doesnt mean it isnt available on request. Obviously a reasonable stamina doubt but at 33s, or anything close to that, she still makes a lot of appeal. If she is amied at te Abbaye rather than the Cheveley so be it - AP punters have to expect a few NR's.

Brilliant write up James, you have not missed out a single filly in the post. I am a fan of Lady of the Desert and, having put her up here on another thread at 33/1, didn't avail the price myself ! I have backed her now at 14/1, though I do have slight stamina doubts about the mile on her style of running - although on breeding she should stay, which is encouraging. She does remind me of a filly Stoute trained called Enthused who had a simlar profile and physique and ultimately wasn't good enough.
A further point of interest - Lowther winners, like The Lady, have a shocking record in the Cheveley Park - from memory, Harayir, Cape Verdi, Enthused, Russian Rhythm, Soar, Flashy Wings and Visit were all beaten although Carry on Katie did do the double.

v.v.very impressive she was too.

Seta failed to deliver the goods in the May Hill but is almost certainly better than the bare result - she showed excellent acceleration and just needs to be ridden with more restraint next time, preferably on better ground. But it looks increasingly as though the Cheveley Park will be a key Guineas trial this year - Lady Of The Desert and Special Duty are the key runners and if either of them wins impressively she'll be clear favourite for the Guineas. If Sand Vixen wins, on the other hand, it may have less significance as a Guineas trial, as the Godolphin filly is an out-and-out sprinter. Misheer's poor effort in the Flying Childers seems to have eliminated her from contention, and Habaayib's form is beginning to look a bit suspect (the Albany form has taken a few knocks and her second to Misheer in the Cherry Hinton doesn't look so good now). Termagant is unlikely to be aimed at the Guineas, but her Moyglare victim Lillie Langtry must be given one more chance on decent ground. Cabaret is plenty short enough in the Guineas betting for a filly that will probably need further than a mile next year. At this stage Lady Of The Desert has the best credentials, in my opinion.

I have backed Lady of the Desert ( anti post ) for the 1000Guineas, and i will not bother me if she is beaten in the Cheveley Park, as plenty of future Guineas winners were beaten in that race. IMO they probably need further than 6f at that stage of their career.

I am waiting ofr the doc's thread before making any commitments.

jamesp 15 Sep 19:17

Lillie Langtry must be given one more chance on decent ground.


james some more sound analysis on an excellent thread you've created but I must take issue with your comment there re Lillie Langtry. You make it sound as though she is a filly that has disappointed this season by saying she must be given one more chance.

She made a highly promising debut at Naas in May against a smart filly, who she then came out and beat in fine style next time out in a Group 3. She then ran superbly well in the Albany at the Royal meeting, only getting beaten into second place by a filly who is quite clearly at her best over sprint distances. At that point Lillie had run all her races over 6f and it was clear that she needed a step up in trip.

The Group 2 Debutante Stakes represented her next test and again she won in superb style over the 7f at Leop in a decent quality contest. It was unfortunate that the ground came up Heavy at The Curragh later in August for the Moyglare, but again she demonstrated a superb attitude, coming home 3rd. The ground was clearly against her that day and she was also feeling the effects of her fifth run of the season.

Lillie Langtry is a highly talented filly, she's had a superb season as a 2YO and your statement that she should be given one more chance is simply an inaccurate reflection of her achievements to date. She's won a Group 3, a Group 2 and it's only a matter of time before she adds a Group 1.

On decent ground and over a mile plus next season she'll be a major player in all the big races and she is very much the one to beat at Newmarket in May.

cheers jamesp.

I saw that race, she sure was impressive.

Yes most Danehill Dancers seem to prefer cut in the ground.

I'll have a watch of Decorative in a bit, not seen it yet.

Interesting one, think she was ready for that race, the jockey looked quite keen to keep her up to her work. Closely related to Forgotton Voice I see so that's promising for staying a mile although how much influence does Fasilyev have on her pedigree she looked a pretty speedy filly?

wich race do you think she will go for James...i think the Cheverley looks a bit hot - but we all know Jarvis likes to have a go at decent prizes this time of year (Sri Putra / Kite Wood last year etc)

She will go for the sales race at the start of October.

Interesting maidens at Kempton yesterday - same race Ghannati made her debut in last year.

Muwakaba (Stoute / Maktoum/ Hills) won nicely, and her breeding is really appealing - by Elusive Quality out of a daughter of Allegretta (mother of Urban Sea and Kings Best). The form is impossible to assess as the first five were all making their debuts, but given the lack of any outstanding candidates (imho) at this stage she would be one to consider at 25/1+

And given the above I wouldn't be totally averse to throwing away a few quid at really silly prices on the second horse, Sing Sweetly for next years Oaks as she is bred to need every inch of 12f next year.

Another welcome boost for Lady Of The Desert's Lowther form today - Dubawi Heights, giving 7lbs, was only beaten half a length by Shamandar in the big sales race at Ascot. She had previously been beaten by more than five lengths in the Lowther. Last weekend the Lowther runner-up Beyond Desire had 'won' the stands side race in the Gr.3 Firth of Clyde Stakes at Ayr from the highly regarded Conniption. So the Cheveley Park Stakes is shaping up into a cracking race, with two well above average candidates (Lady Of The Desert and Special Duty) plus a good supporting cast - a much more significant Guineas trial than tomorrow's Fillies' Mile.

if she wins by 5, will she be AP fave?,,,not too far decorative..

With the flat (turf) season nearly over, it seems an appropriate time to review the 1000 Guineas market. Heres a list of the main contenders in the Guineas betting, with a summary of their form and current Racing Post Ratings (RPR):

Special Duty (C.Head-Maarek) (RPR 117) -2121: generally 4/1-5/1. Impressive winner of the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes (a key Guineas pointer) and seems certain to be champion juvenile filly. She stayed on very strongly inside the final furlong at Newmarket, shaping as though she would get at least another furlong. Bred to get a mile and well suited by fast ground. Has been well supported for the Guineas in recent weeks (was 8/1 in a place immediately after she won the Cheveley Park) in the absence of credible opposition emerging from other key races like the Prix Marcel Boussac and Rockfel Stakes.

Lillie Langtry (A.P.OBrien) (RPR 107) -212131: generally 7/1-10/1. Remains well fancied (was generally 8/1-12/1 at the end of August), following a comfortable win in the valuable Timeform Fillies 800 at Newmarket last time out. Reportedly on course for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (a race the stable very nearly won last year with the inferior Heart Shaped). There was a valid excuse for her defeat in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes (run on heavy ground) and she had earlier looked smart when winning the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes.

Seta (L.M.Cumani) (RPR 104) -13: generally 14/1-16/1. Her odds have doubled since the end of August (when she was generally a 7/1-8/1 chance), but this may be an overreaction by the bookmakers, as she has a potent turn of foot and looked all over the winner of the Gr.2 May Hill Stakes before being swallowed up by Pollenator and Hibaayeb inside the final furlong. The trainer was not too disappointed and is convinced that the filly (who was still on the weak side) would have won if she had been ridden with more restraint. The form was franked when Hibaayeb went on to win the Gr.1 Fillies Mile and she remains a smart prospect (a possible Guineas ride for K.Fallon).

Lady Of The Desert (B.J.Meehan) (RPR 112) -16113: generally 16/1-20/1 (25/1 in a place). Impressive winner of the Lowther (after which she was generally 8/1-10/1 for the Guineas), but failed to progress further when well beaten by Special Duty in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park last time (pulled hard early, outpaced by the winner, reportedly failed to handle the undulations of the track). Bred to get a mile, but reportedly more likely to be aimed at the French Guineas.

Misheer (C.E.Brittain) (RPR 109) -112192: generally 16/1-20/1 (25/1 in places). Smart sprinting filly, her only disappointing effort came in the Gr.2 Flying Childers (for which the trainer typically blamed himself). Ran well in defeat in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park, taking second spot near the line and shaping as though a step up to 7 furlongs would suit (however, she is speedily bred - by Oasis Dream out of a sprinter by Cadeaux Genereux - and she is not certain to stay a mile).

Termagant (K.Prendergast) (RPR 110) -11: generally 14/1-20/1 (25/1 in a place). Beat the smart Cabaret on debut before overcoming very testing ground to win the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes in a very slow time, showing a good cruising speed. Has been weak in the betting, with the trainer talking about the Irish Guineas as the likely target next season.

Music Show (M.R.Channon) (RPR 110) -1101: generally 16/1-20/1 (25/1 in places). Well regarded filly who ran unaccountably badly in the Gr.3 Firth of Clyde at Ayr but redeemed herself by pulling off shock win up in trip in the Gr.2 Rockfel, beating the progressive Atasari and hot favourite Tabassum (the three well clear). She is likely to stay a mile (she ran on strongly to get up close home in the Rockfel under a vintage Fallon ride).

Pollenator (R.Hannon) (RPR 107) -62211: generally 16/1-20/1 (25/1 in places). Progressive filly, stepped up markedly on previous efforts to take Gr.2 May Hill Stakes, staying on well to lead close home. The owners are hoping she will develop into an Oaks filly (she is by Motivator out of a mare who was placed at up to 12 furlongs) and the Guineas seems an unlikely target at this stage.

Tabassum (Sir M.Stoute) (RPR 108) -113: generally 20/1-25/1. Impressive winner of substandard renewal of the Gr.3 Oh So Sharp Stakes and was all the rage for the Gr.2 Rockfel, where she perhaps did too much in front and was overhauled late on by both Music Show and Atasari. That performance raised questions about her stamina over a mile and pre-race Guineas quotes of 10/1-14/1 have been revised accordingly. Its too soon to write her off, though, and the Guineas is occasionally won by a filly that ran below expectations in the Rockfel (eg Wince, Ameerat).

Cabaret (A.P.OBrien) (RPR 106) -2110: generally 14/1-25/1, but not quoted by several firms. She was as short as 12/1-14/1 for the Guineas before the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac, where she finished tailed off (saddle slipped). That performance should be ignored and she had previously looked a smart prospect when winning the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes by 4½ lengths. A resolute galloper who is well suited by yielding ground, she shapes as though she will stay much further than a mile.

Hibaayeb (C.E.Brittain) (RPR 110) -3221: generally 20/1-33/1 (40/1 in a place). Nearly pulled off a shock win in the Gr.2 May Hill Stakes before losing her maiden tag in a substandard renewal of the Gr.1 Fillies Mile. Her pedigree (by Singspiel) and style of running strongly suggest that the Oaks will be a more suitable target than the Guineas (for which the trainers Misheer may be a likelier contender).

Rosanara (A.De Royer Dupre) (RPR 114) -11: available at 10/1-25/1, but not quoted by several firms. Impressive winner of the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac on only her second start, but she will reportedly be prepared for the French Guineas and is unlikely to turn up at Newmarket. A possible runner in this Sundays Gr.1 Criterium International.

Others to consider:
Jim Bolgers Atasari (RPR 109) has been most progressive and was only beaten a neck by Music Show in the Gr.2 Rockfel. She had earlier won and been placed over a mile, but is quite speedily bred and a mile may be her trip next year, but she is generally not quoted for the Guineas and seems more likely to be aimed at the Irish Guineas. Stan Moores Lady Darshaan (RPR 108) is another progressive filly who finished runner-up to Hibaayeb in the Gr.1 Fillies Mile, where she held every chance until she was struck across the nose by the winning riders whip and carried left in the closing stages. Aidan OBriens Youll Be Mine (RPR 105) finished 1½ lengths behind Lady Darshaan at Ascot, having won her maiden just three weeks earlier, but looks a smart middle distance prospect rather than a Guineas contender at this stage. Ralph Becketts Puff (RPR 106) ran a blinder in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park, running on without being able to reach the leaders. That performance suggested that this scopey filly would not be inconvenienced by a step up in trip, but she is sprint-bred and on paper unlikely to get a mile.

Dolled Up (RPR 111), Neon Light (RPR 108), On Verra (RPR 107), Joanna (RPR 107), Wedding March (RPR 107), Barouda (RPR 105), Junia Tepzia (RPR 104) and Blessed Luck (RPR 103) have all shown smart form in France, Germany and Italy but there is no reason to believe that any of them will be aimed at the Guineas. There was some talk that the impressive Queen Mary winner Jealous Again (RPR 115), now with Godolphin, might run in one of the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies races, but she is surely an out-and-out sprinter.

Maiden winners:
Dermot Welds Emulous (RPR 80) won a 28-runner Curragh soft ground maiden on debut by a length (with the third another 4½ lengths away) and is just 16/1 for the Guineas with one major firm. She is a highly regarded daughter of Dansili, but the form is nothing special (the runner-up has been beaten again since), her full sister failed to train on at three, and she is in the same ownership as Guineas favourite Special Duty. Michael Jarvis-trained Decorative (RPR 87) hacked up on her debut at Yarmouth over 6 furlongs (form has worked out quite well) and should stay a mile. Sir Michael Stoutes Muwakaba (RPR 82) showed a nice turn of foot to land a Kempton maiden on debut. There is plenty of stamina and class on the dams side of the family (the dam won over 12 furlongs and is related to Urban Sea and Kings Best) and she should improve for a step up to a mile. Her unraced stablemate Safina, a daughter of Pivotal and Russian Rhythm, is set to make her debut at Newmarket on Saturday (taking on, among others, Godolphins beautifully-bred newcomer Perfect Note) and is one to watch out for. In fact, both divisions of the maiden on Saturday are worth keeping a close eye on Sariska won at the same meeting last year. Godolphins Modeyra (RPR 83) won a traditionally informative mile maiden at Doncaster towards the end of October, staying on strongly. She is a big scopey filly who will certainly get 10 furlongs, being by Shamardal out of Oaks third and Nassau winner Zahrat Dubai.

Conclusion:
Special Duty is the stand-out filly on form and will take some beating in the Guineas if she is able to stretch her stamina to a mile. She was staying on well in the closing stages of the Cheveley Park Stakes and is bred to get the mile, but she has so much speed that there are still some nagging doubts on that score. Shes likely to start off next season over 7 furlongs in the Prix Imprudence. If youre not already on at bigger prices, the current 5/1 makes limited appeal but is about right, given that the likes of Rosanara and Termagant are unlikely to go to Newmarket.

Ghanaati broke all the trends this year by winning the 1000 Guineas on the back of an all-weather maiden win, but normally the Guineas is won by a filly that completed her two year old campaign with a good performance in a Gr.1 or Gr.2 race. Apart from the favourite, others to consider are Lillie Langtry (subject to how she performs in America), Seta (a high class filly, surely capable of better than she showed in the May Hill), Misheer (if you think she can reverse Cheveley Park form with Special Duty over the longer trip), Music Show (winner of the normally informative Rockfel Stakes) and Tabassum (if you think she had an

Any thoughts on Beyond Desire of Michael Jarvis's. Was all the rage for that race at Ayr only to be given no chance by the awful draw bias.

Beyond Desire is by Invincible Spirit out of a multiple 5-7f winner by Mujtahid, so on breeding I think it's unlikely that she will get a mile. The once-raced maiden winner Decorative is potentially a more interesting prospect for the Jarvis stable.