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PGA Championship early thoughts

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Replies: 306
By:
therhino
When: 05 Aug 14 08:41
Does Rory's form justify a W/O market straight off the bat? I think it does.
By:
therhino
When: 05 Aug 14 11:39
Struggling to find a price to sink my teeth into right now. Holding fire while the book is at 108.4%
By:
therhino
When: 05 Aug 14 11:47
Laid off Leishman, gone too low now. Fowler drifted massively before last week, in a bigger field he should do so again. Just laid 27s.
By:
sheppy123
When: 05 Aug 14 13:21
The odds of a lot of players in this tournament seem massive to me. It's like it's a test to see how many I can resist, but so far I've failed miserably!

If a player has done crap this season, I can understand why their odds might be so high, but some have had loads of top 10s and wins etc.

I'm not gonna look at the odds anymore today cos I'm just gonna end up backing everybody!!!
By:
pokeron
When: 05 Aug 14 13:39
just stick with four or five players at manageable stakes and enjoy sheppy. but leave a little stake money for pulling trigger on one or two in running you REALLY reackon. that's all. like you say it's a testLaugh

http://www.sportinglife.com/bettingzone/golf/26529/9406807/phil-to-thrill-at-valhalla

i really didn;t want to back phil or bubba but now i have to. damn you coley. maybe something different is in order this week.
By:
frames
When: 05 Aug 14 13:53
I agree Sheppy ,finding it hard to resist a few.Not backed all these but Wiesberger,Fisher,Sterne,Olesen and probably Pod soon all at 1000.Jaidee,Gallagher,Els,Jimenez,Bello,Ed Mol all 500+.High class field and high,high prices.
By:
therhino
When: 05 Aug 14 14:15
Sabba the best of the 1000 club for mine.
By:
sheppy123
When: 05 Aug 14 14:17
Phew! It sure is a test isn't it!!!

Good link and advice pokeron, but turning my modem off would be the best advice!

Backed 28 players so far. Layed quite a few off, but the others are just becoming more and more unfancied, quickly approaching the 1000 mark!

I wish everything went as well as my Kevin Na trade. Backed him @ 330 last night, layed him @ 200 this morning.

Good luck everybody...Happy
By:
frames
When: 05 Aug 14 14:22
The 1000 club could be a tourney on it's own.Crane ,Compton two more .R'Up to Kaymer not that long ago.
By:
brucewayne
When: 05 Aug 14 14:22
It's been a rather long time since I've posted on the forum, and not quite sure as to why I've decided to resurface now prior to the last major of the year. Anyways for what it's worth I've went with: Bubba, Matsuyama and J.B. Holmes so far. Looking to add at least 3/4 more but like most on here I'm deeply worried by what Rory has been producing as of late. However, at 5/1 he represents absolutely no value to me in such a deeply talented stacked field. Considering adding Stenson and Phil but both haven't been anywhere near the form they showed last year. If length is deemed to be an advantage on this course like many seem to be alluding to then this should set up for the cream to rise to the top in Rory and Scott I fear.Plain
By:
pokeron
When: 05 Aug 14 14:29
sheppy, speaking of na, i was putting today in front of the bar, and all i heard from the bar was , 'hideki matsuyama'

and 'kevin na' (if you don't know why look at my youtube in the other thread),

one guy then starts singing 'na na na na na na na' to hey jude.

then i drained huge putts to silence Cool
By:
brucewayne
When: 05 Aug 14 14:35
Added Stenson couldn't resistPlain
By:
sheppy123
When: 05 Aug 14 14:41
pokeron Laugh
By:
DickTurpin
When: 05 Aug 14 14:52
Backed Leishman and Blubber so far, prob back 2/3 more. Still think Leishman's value at 55, feck Garcia, Rose and Fowler are all half his odds for some reason...................
By:
Mighty Whites 2008
When: 05 Aug 14 16:05
vegas do u think tiger will come in if he tees it up. He is 60 now. Even if his back was just a spasm and has cleared up I doubt his game gives him any chance. Yes he won here in 2000 but he was a very different player.

Sunday was painful to watch even if he was injured from holes 2 to 8. Personally I think he should take the rest of the year off get healthy and start again probably with a new coach.
By:
Mighty Whites 2008
When: 05 Aug 14 16:07
can't believe how many are 1000 plus yet monty clings on to sub 1000. Traditionally this was the major that threw up some weird and wonderful winners although in recent years the winners have been good.
By:
the muppet moans
When: 05 Aug 14 16:28
When researching for this years US PGA Championship it becomes fairly obvious that of the last 15 winners 13 of them had already won that season - the two exceptions were oddly Micheel and Dufner who both won @ Oak Hill. For some reason Americans have a better record in this Major than the others - possibly down to the heat and humidity in August in the states where it is staged and don't be put off by backing outsiders - they have a good record. Lastly seven of the last ten winners had posted at least a top six finish in the Major before. I have come up with five golfers who fulfill at least some of these criteria.
My first selection was Jonas Blixt mainly due to his big price especially when you consider his recent form in Majors. He was a pretty consistent golfer over the last few years winning in both 2012 and 2013 and finishing 4th in this last year. 2014 has not been a great year for the Swede but he did pop up from nowhere on his Masters debut to finish 2nd @ Augusta. At 250/1 he has to be worth a small risk 0.2 ew - now available with 6 places on offer.
Hideki Matsuyama heads to Valhalla with that all important win earlier in the season and it could well be a good omen for him that it came on another Jack Nicklaus course @ Muirfield Village which some people think is a good fit for Valhalla. That win came after a consistent run of form on his return from injury and added to five wins the youngster had already achieved in Japan in his short career. In just 24 starts in the US he can also boast a 3rd a 4th and a 10th in the US Open last year and was an ever improving 12th last week @ Firestone. He is a huge talent and worthy of a decent bet 0.4 ew 66/1 6 places
Scott Stallings' performances on the golf course bear a remarkable similarity to Forrest Gumps' box of chocolates - you never know what you are going to get! However he has that all important win this season - coming in a top class event @ Torrey Pines. He also seems to have a penchant for Jack Nicklaus courses having won @ Annandale, finished 4th @ Muirfield and he should have won when we were on him in the Humana. Being from Tennessee he will be well used to the heat and humidity and if we can catch him on a going week he is a ridiculously big price 0.1 ew 400/1 6 places.
Talking of local players then we simply have to have Kentuckian JB Holmes in our line-up. He returned to form this year after taking time off for brain and elbow surgery and a broken ankle! He won @ Quail Hollow this year after a consistent run of form and that event is often taken by Major performers. He would clearly love to delight the home fans who probably still feel their other home grown player Kenny Perry should have won here back in 2000. Perry was a stalwart in the US Ryder Cup team that easily beat Europe here at Valhalla in 2008 and his efforts were actually surpassed by a young Holmes who was a Captains pick that year. He has been well tipped up because of his local connections which comes as no great surprise 0.25 ew 110/1 6 places.
My big outsider will come as a surprise to most but there is method in my madness so bear with me! Scott Piercy doesn't have a win under his belt this year but then again he did miss a big chunk having gone through elbow surgery - he does however fit the criteria of a top finish in the event before having been 5th @ Oak Hill last season. What first caught my attention was his his from at this time of year - his two Web.com wins came on the 10th and 28th of August and his two PGA wins on the 29th July and 7th August. Whilst looking for similar courses to Valhalla - namely tree lined parkland with elevation changes I identified Hamilton where Piercy won the Canadian Open and you could almost say that the Nicklaus designed Montreux course fits the bill as well - the scene of his other win. He played a couple of Web.com events as allowed on his return from surgery and his only start on the PGA tour was in Canada where he finished 25th. There was however plenty of encouragement in that as his second round 65 was the 3rd lowest of the day and the closing 66 was joint 8th lowest, he also finished 6th in scrambling and 5th for putts per round. Given that he has finished 5th and 6th after the opening rounds in the last two PGA Championships I have backed him in the first round leader market - 0.1 ew 200/1 and outright 0.4 ew 300/1 6 places.
There were numerous other players that nearly made the final list and I have had savers on Reed 100, Cabrera 150 and Ogilvy 250 all on Betfair.
By:
sheppy123
When: 05 Aug 14 16:43
Great info as always muppet.Happy

Just added Blixt to my long list.
By:
maggot
When: 05 Aug 14 16:54
Thorbjorn Olesen @ 1000 is a great price..

Ok. He has not had a particularly good time of it this year, but what stands out for me is his 8th spot finish at Jack's other place.

Will probably end in tears, but whatever happens, at 1000, it won't put me on the streets.

He certainly has the game to do well here, if everything clicks.

Clickety click...
By:
Geesyerdosh
When: 05 Aug 14 17:08
Don't know how many I'm gonna end up with, Rory will probably win in a canter and spoil the fun.


Billy Horschel@250 - prior to a missed cut at the open he had been in excellent form, hopefully he's still in it.

John Senden@340 - Does everything pretty well, winner already this season, 8th in the masters and finding his form again.

Large Kevin Stadler@390 - another who does most things well, winner already this season and a nice finish at the Bridgestone so hopefully found his form again after a quiet couple of months.

Scott Stallings@490 - just for the reason I've seen him put up in a few places.


I can't be bothered posting the rest. I'll be here to Xmas at this rate I think I need a rest. They'll all probably fail miserably anyway Laugh
By:
1st time poster
When: 05 Aug 14 17:13
good quotes them from nicklaus, but the likes of

lawrie
daley[ twice ]
clarke
yang
sean macheal
tway
mize
cink
hamilton
curtis
etc
probably means he was talking shoite
By:
vegasdreams
When: 05 Aug 14 17:25
Mighty white - to be fair i was hoping it would be announced by now and wasn't really thinking he'd drift past the 55 mark, but it's tiger the bandwagon will keep rolling for a tournament or two yet imo - i dont think in any way shape or form he should be any lower but fact is a major % of people who back in A MAJOR just wont know nevermind care - it's tiger lol.
obviously everything we do is a punt of some kind and i am still confident, altho not as confident with going to 60, i expected him to shorten the more non golf fans get involved, still could as it's only tuesday.
By:
omega1
When: 05 Aug 14 17:29
Some great shouts here this week. One of the reasons that we are getting attractive odds is that the two main market leaders (and Garcia,to a slightly lesser extent)seem to have the perfect game for this track. Forecast wet conditions will only help their cause!
But, like most, it's about looking for value. I flagged up Leishman @ 66 the other day, but that would never last, given the way he played in the OPEN (5th) and a remarkable performance last week to finish 3rd despite some erratic driving. I really liked the way he shrugged off all the adversity and dropped shots and bounced right back. Valhalla looks more generous in the fairways and also sure he will have worked on the hook.
So he was my first bet:he's still under-rated IMO.

I've backed Paul Casey too...There have been very big signs this year of him being close to best form this year> Will need to put 4 rounds together but the price looks worth that chance to me!

When i was checking the stats, another name that kept popping up very favourably, was DeLaet. Again mentioned above. Has to be backed around the 200 mark. Amazing price considering the price he goes off most weeks!

Also above was mentioned Cabrera and he's a great price too. Playing really well this year. Still Hits it a long way and that's gonna help!

Long shots include Kev Stadler: who has already won this year and played well last week.

Stewie Cink is longer than YOU think and has been decent without brilliant this year and Ryan Palmer takes the tiniest bet of the lot!
By:
frames
When: 05 Aug 14 18:01
Did not realise how bad some of the side markets are these days.Make the cut market ,£47 matched so far.
By:
sheppy123
When: 05 Aug 14 18:23
You back a golfer @ say 600 who you consider to be great value. The next time you look they're 750! Then 900 etc.

AAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH!!!
By:
1st time poster
When: 05 Aug 14 19:03
think my stable of golfers has got the virus at the moment but giving them another chance as the front of the market to short for me,with sids 1st 6 ew
sneds 55,s ew
jason day 60,s, [ struggling but huge price compared to normal ]
zach 60,s
hunter 66,s[ better show last week long straight driver ]
jimmy walker 60,s
ryan moore 60,s
deleat 120,s
fanny mol 110,s
By:
VillaBoy
When: 05 Aug 14 19:57
Gone for 3 each way and will back one more in running

Schwartzel, Matsuyama and Bradley
By:
vegasdreams
When: 05 Aug 14 19:58
can anyone confirm rory tee's off @ 1.45pm with bubba and kayer?

just that in the tee off list theres this and i'm unsure what it means -
9.30am
Brendan STEELE, Irvine, CA
Rob CORCORAN, Melbourne, FL
WINNER – WGC Bridgestone Invitational

thanks
By:
vegasdreams
When: 05 Aug 14 20:02
ahh found it, must be just a f-up - seems pat perez is the third in 9.30 group
By:
Mighty Whites 2008
When: 05 Aug 14 22:15
there was a spot reserved for the bridgestone winner if they weren't except it went to the first alternate - perez
By:
therhino
When: 05 Aug 14 22:19
Everyone obsessed with the massive outsiders this week. Is anyone actually on Rory other than meConfusedScared
By:
frames
When: 05 Aug 14 22:40
Plenty Rhino ,normally surface back 9 Sunday.
By:
therhino
When: 05 Aug 14 22:42
Ahh but of course Plain Forum shenanigans.
By:
Puggy4
When: 05 Aug 14 22:49
Me also therhino and Ski-Wiz is green on him since last saturday
By:
Mighty Whites 2008
When: 05 Aug 14 23:35
a third of the money matched is rory so far
By:
brucewayne
When: 05 Aug 14 23:39
I'm trying to restrain myself from backing Rory, he's just too short for me at the moment. Just hoping his level dips somewhat to give the field a chance.
By:
donny osmond
When: 05 Aug 14 23:48
a without rory market would probably be good
By:
sofiakenny
When: 06 Aug 14 00:02
rhino.i like backing guys in form and rory is..however his putting is at best average as are his short irons..if not in contention can go downhill fast..i will lay him in the top 5 top ten markets..gl pal.
By:
pokeron
When: 06 Aug 14 02:56
it has been a popular train of thought that ponce will have a fight on his hands for top aussie. furthermore its also popular to go for leishman.

i say dutching leish and ogilvy sounds pretty good.

ogilvy 17's.
By:
frames
When: 06 Aug 14 10:34
Tiger can leave it until tee-time to withdraw.Must think he has a chance of playing .Who gets in when he withdraws ?
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