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PGA Championship early thoughts

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Replies: 306
By:
therhino
When: 06 Aug 14 10:50
According to Phil and as expected by most, the advantage is to those who hit it high and soft. Rarely put the blinkers on before a ball is struck but really struggling to see past Rory.
By:
vegasdreams
When: 06 Aug 14 10:57
Do the shorter hitters need it to be soft or to dry out for them to have hope?

I'm hearing it both ways, for long hitters wets better as they wont lose the fairway as often but then next it's shorter guys want it wet so there long irons will still stop.
must admit I've been looking for "a way in" for others to have a chance for 2 days now, but keep getting roadblocked by that wee irish rapscallion
By:
vegasdreams
When: 06 Aug 14 11:03
how the fook is ousty so long?? 5ft 10 and 180lbs soaking wet, has won the last two distance comps

would he take out rory for the "best swing in golf"
By:
sheppy123
When: 06 Aug 14 11:07
Please forgive me. I'm trying my hardest to think of every reason under the sun why Rory might not win it!

Have you considered the fact that he might get toothache or something???

Laugh
By:
therhino
When: 06 Aug 14 11:16
Adam still has the best swing for mine vegas, it is a thing of beauty. Not sure how a wet course favours a short hitter. it's not just the drive that favours the big boys, on approach if they are hitting short irons and wedges to soft greens they can stop the ball instantly and generate the spin they want, which is when it becomes target golf, and these guys will murder pretty much any course with those conditions.
By:
frames
When: 06 Aug 14 11:22
I think Vegas is saying Timmy can stop his rescue club approach on the green as Rory pulls his wedge.
By:
therhino
When: 06 Aug 14 11:25
how you sitting here frames? managed to peel any of that liability left or gonna wait it out and hope some early starters go low?
By:
frames
When: 06 Aug 14 11:32
Try to make a book around it now.Three reds at the moment,Serg,Rory and Jimbo.The average price layed on Rory is not great but done ok on others.Need Tiger to withdraw ,was out last week when he walked off and got caught.
All about Rory for a lot of us I imagine,used to say that about that Tiger bloke.
By:
therhino
When: 06 Aug 14 11:38
The late start hopefully helps. Might only need to start with a few pars to hit 8s.
By:
lockup
When: 06 Aug 14 11:41
think Justin Rose and Mickleson will challenge this week may not be so much of a birdy fest, which will suit Rose,Mickleson seems to be finding his distance again hopefully go well.
By:
vegasdreams
When: 06 Aug 14 11:51

Aug 6, 2014 -- 11:22AM, frames wrote:


I think Vegas is saying Timmy can stop his rescue club approach on the green as Rory pulls his wedge.


yeah - seems it needs to be soft i think, no choice, rory can stop his 2nd shot on the green irrelevant of the ground, but for timmy and the likes, there stuffed if they cant stop the ball.

By:
vegasdreams
When: 06 Aug 14 13:22
Well - just scrapped my book - everything and everybody i've mentioned so far is  null and void, had chopped and changed so much my book was becoming silly.
actually cost me £25 to get out, which is very poor and silly of me but am starting again with a new strategy which i will reveal shortly Crazy
By:
therhino
When: 06 Aug 14 13:26
Bar any late drifts my starting position set. Been a decent week trading, have zero liability to start Cool

Rory +1426
Rose +1388
Kuchar +354
Moore +1500
Reed +1204
Na +2091
Horschel +1116
Ogilvy +646
Watney +2593
Blixt +1148
By:
frames
When: 06 Aug 14 13:26
Have you done the golf all 13 years on here Vegas ?
By:
sideshowbob
When: 06 Aug 14 13:58
thats quite some trading. i wish mine looked like that.

i have backed rory for 10k at 6.4 and layed him for 9,687.50 at 6.2, but apart from that its not gone so well. i need a couple of players to drift, or at least 1 of em. i have 25k liabilities on both of em, if they dont drift ive no idea whether to back em at whatever price is up or just hope they start badly. not thinking that far ahead, just hoping they both drift a tick/point/whatever the hell you pros call it Cool
By:
vegasdreams
When: 06 Aug 14 14:25
no frames - am actually a complete newbie as far as golf's concerned, only developed a love for the game and started playing 3 years ago, even then did not gamble on it really till 18 months ago - maybe that explains why i am so bad at it!!

i've mentioned before on here, nature of things now is i have to be super strict and disciplined on the horses day in day out - so golf is kinda my release when i mad punt go a little crazy Happy
By:
sheppy123
When: 06 Aug 14 14:48
Well done Rhino, that is really impressive!

I'm finding trading difficult in this event cos my golfers keep rising. The Masters was so much easier. Too good to be true almost.

We all see value picks differently. I don't play it so mine comes from loads of trading pretty much every week for a few years.

Doesn't it make you feel good when your prediction goes well and you have a great trade. A few days ago I was convinced Brendan Todd was too big (220) and banged more money that usual on him. Just when I thought I'd failed miserably I layed him off @ 190 today which I was delighted about.

I thought Stroud was too high @ 800s but phew! I still have a lot to learn!!!

Good luck everybody...Happy
By:
Super Hans
When: 06 Aug 14 15:03
Kaymer @ 65???

Injured?
By:
sideshowbob
When: 06 Aug 14 15:08
my bold prediction, and i know im going out on a limb here, is that tiger wont win it. beyond that, i wouldnt like to commit myself.
By:
vegasdreams
When: 06 Aug 14 15:11
rhino -what sorta stakes do u play to work that sort of book? i'm struggling to wrap my head around how that is even possible!!! ( i am in no way questioning your integrity mate, u been doing this long b4 i turned up) assume your a backer first? how the fook have u predicted players to shorten? nion the fields drifted in the last fortnight!!

seriously, some pointers would be massive, i'm with sheppy, everything i touch drifts like a barge!!
By:
sideshowbob
When: 06 Aug 14 15:15
im guessing he backed justin rose, seeing as i layed him at 21.0 and 20.0 and just had to back him back at 19.5!
By:
SamH_123
When: 06 Aug 14 15:59
Super Hans, Kaymer was rubbish at Bridgestone, but I don't know how much weight should be put on the very last tournament, and how much weight should be put on the whole year
By:
vegasdreams
When: 06 Aug 14 16:04
I've been told by the mrs due to personel cr@p the liklyhood is that i wont get to see or be able to access betfair for all of the first two days, but wanna be proper involved, with this in mind......

is there a dumb as fook reason for this to be a stupidly horrible plan??? - or go for it each to there own??

have picked those i like and think overpriced and plan on  just putting lay str8 in after backing

12 players to shorten 100 points  - so back 800, lay str8 back in at 700 etc

24 players to shorten 50 points

24 players to shorten 25 points

11 players to shorten 10 points

see where i am come saturday. Confused

i am not talking about if u like the idea or not, just what, if anything makes it complete and utter stupidity??, it's just i like far too many players and think far too many are overpriced and with no access sounds just up my alley, see i'd prob end up backing 25+ players anyway, thats got to be a worse plan ConfusedGrin
By:
Super Hans
When: 06 Aug 14 16:16
Thanks Sam. 65 good for me.
By:
frames
When: 06 Aug 14 16:20
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Martin Kaymer looked unbeatable earlier this year when he went wire-to-wire (with ties) to win The Players Championship, and then wire-to-wire (no ties) for an eight-shot victory in the U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2.
So it was mildly surprising when Kaymer played so poorly in the British Open. He offered more of an explanation than an excuse Tuesday. Kaymer said he was coping with a sore shoulder that kept him from proper practice in the days leading up to the Open.
''Just once in a while, you wake up and you have a little issue here and there,'' Kaymer said. ''The shoulder was quite surprising for me because I couldn't really hit one normal golf shot until Thursday morning at The Open. So the British Open, my practice rounds were very, very limited.''
Kaymer said it is no longer an issue.
Last week at Firestone, he didn't make a birdie in the opening round of a 77, then played reasonably well the rest of the week.
''But now, everything is fine,'' he said. ''It just came out of nowhere. Like everyone else, once in a while you wake up and you have something, and that happened to me, unfortunately, the week of The Open. But everything's fine. It's just something that you have to deal with when it comes up, but it's nothing major.''

He always seems to drift in the big ones.
By:
maleuk01.
When: 06 Aug 14 16:29
I predict ski wizz will have had a good bet on the golfer going clear after round 2 or 3 and decent green on nearest challenges and small green everyone else.

Seems to be the case every week no matter what golfers are in contention.

Laugh
By:
maggot
When: 06 Aug 14 16:31
68 on purple
By:
donny osmond
When: 06 Aug 14 17:01
doesnt seem a great plan vegas, but if rory plays poorly it might work
By:
vegasdreams
When: 06 Aug 14 17:07
i know mate i know :( the little tw@t :) lol

prob still gunna do it lol, but i did cater for rory a little bit - all the 100 point trades are in the morning group, hopefully get a few matched b4 wonderboy tee's off!! Laugh
By:
sheppy123
When: 06 Aug 14 17:13
At last Monty has made it to 1000! I won't be backing him but he's been in the late 900s for quite some time.

But enough about his age!Laugh
By:
brucewayne
When: 06 Aug 14 17:15
The more I've thought about it, I'm glad I never went with Rory. Call it a hunch but I don't think Rory even finishes top 5Blush
By:
frames
When: 06 Aug 14 17:31
Tiger has arrived at the course.Looking for a motability scooter as we speak
By:
maggot
When: 06 Aug 14 17:33
I hope that he starts, but I doubt it.
By:
sheppy123
When: 06 Aug 14 17:34
I've written more than enough today and I appologize if I'm driving anyone mad!Laugh

BUT I've got an addictive personality and sometimes I can't stop!Laugh

Anyway, we talk about trading. Back high, lay low etc.

Well phew! I feel annoyed that I'm missed the boat with Ben Martin. 600s to 300s in 2 days. That is some trade!

If I'd backed him @ 600 he'd be 900 now!Cry

Good luck everybody...Happy

PS... I hope your hunch is right Bruce!Happy
By:
1st time poster
When: 06 Aug 14 18:58
all this rory talk takes me back to tigers masters win,they put the tees back and tried to tiger proof it, monty said tiger,s   going to win as many as he wants to and we,re all playing for 2nd,dont think he,s won since,zach won by laying up on all the par 5,s
its only 5 weeks since rory was knocking out 80,s on a friday,he,s a million miles from been tiger in his pomp, also very rare players back up in a major
By:
vegasdreams
When: 06 Aug 14 19:00
is it me, or has there been quite alot of movement on the 200+ runners over the last 2-3 hours? , seems a few from memory have actually shortened quite markedly!!
By:
Super Hans
When: 06 Aug 14 19:01
Frames
He always seems to drift in the big ones.


I noticed that as well. Went from 44-55 before he won the US Open.

Think 70 is far to big and happy to take him at his word that all is fine.

A bit of Harris English @ 170 and Gonzo Top 10/5/winner will do me.

Gl all.
By:
brucewayne
When: 06 Aug 14 19:04
Finally settled on my team, got involved way too late in the market for one reason or another (just back to betfair after a lengthy absence) and trading just wasn't a viable option. Hence forth I have had to simply back my selections. Below is what I'm left with:

Stenson +1,193.44

Bubba +1,193.44 (Based off the fact I think distance off the tee is going to be crucial, bolstered with the way he played another of the Nicklaus designed courses namely Muirfield village).

Matsuyama +1,915.44 (Like Bubba he isn't exactly short off the tee, also like the fact he ranks 6th in approaches from 200 yards and 1st from 150-175 yards which could be crucial considering the length of this course. Won the Memorial tournament, not to mention a tied 12th last week in Akron).

Westwood +737.44

Reed +793.68 (Purely off the fact he has had great year, albeit he had went cold before he's good performance last week, distance won't a problem either).

J.B.Holmes +775.44 (Hits it an awfully long way and being a local thought it was worth a small stake).

Delaet +727.94 (Missed last week which isn't exactly ideal preparation for this, but at 190 he was impossible to bypass considering he ranks 15th in driving distance, coupled with 3rd in greens in regulation. If only he could get the short stick going).

Karlsson +1,172.06

Blixt +748.65

Jacobson +2,200.44

Stallings +2,057.94 (Ticked the box of having won earlier this year and averages 300+ yards per drive - hopeful at best).

Field -183.75

Finally all the other selections have a theme/trend going in that they all hail from Nordic countries and with the obvious link to the name Valhalla "Hall of the slain", well call it silly to base selections off of that but it just felt appropriate. Not to mention Stenson is pure quality when he is on form, Karlsson has played really well as of late and Blixt played well in this corresponding event last year. Kind of feel I should have included Bjorn who went well at this venue in 2000 and Olesen who played well at Muirfield this year to complete the line - up of viking raidersExcited
By:
sideshowbob
When: 06 Aug 14 19:05
i wish adam scott would drift out. been stuck on 13.5 for an eternity even though theres 24k there wanting to lay it. does nobody else on the planet actually want to lay him??
By:
vegasdreams
When: 06 Aug 14 19:05
IGNORE ME,JUST FOR OWN BENEFIT INCASE I CAN LOOK IN FIRST 2 DAYS


100 points price 50 points price 25 points price 10 points price
j.luiten 580 davis love III 1000 p casey 190 p reed 85
g coetzee 630 D HEARN 1000 b horshall 210 r moore 85
p larrazabal 1000 G.F.Castano 930 r karlson 160 j day 100
ross fisher 1000 c wood 980 b todd 180 j walker 70
t jaidee 430 e compton 1000 g delaet 170 m kaymer 60
j donaldson 340 c stroud 920 i poulter 260 b snedeker 80
s gallagher 350 e molinari 650 s stricker 210 m leishman 55
p harrington 920 s brown 1000 t bjorn 150 j furyk 44
m jimenez 550 k chappell 480 h english 180 c schartzel 36
b weisberger 1000 g mcneil 860 f molinari 180 b watson 38
m warren 1000 a lahari 1000 n watney 250 m kucher 40
m illonen 1000 t fleetwood 1000 l ousthuizen 180 . .
. . k perry 780 b de jonge 470 . .
. . r knox 610 j senden 340 . .
. . d willet 840 j blixt 440 . .
. . b weekly 700 k na 160 . .
. . p perez 1000 c kirk 180 . .
. . r palmer 440 z johnson 110 . .
. . t clark 420 a cabrera 120 . .
. . c howell 260 l donald 150 . .
. . b koepka 360 v duibison 130 . .
. . j donaldson 340 jb holmes 120 . .
. . s lowry 250 w simpson 130 . .
. . g olgilvy 250 j dufner 140 . .



IGNORE ME,JUST FOR OWN BENEFIT INCASE I CAN LOOK IN FIRST 2 DAYS
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