General Betting
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I had a critic when I posted ratings on system just over 2 years ago........................
To be honest I did not really know how to use my system's ratings of races......
It has taken years to develop a system......and there have been many "problems" ...HURDLES ....to over come......
The guy in cheap seats.....heavily pestered me on thread re the ratings.......To be fair to him/she, I did not know how to use them. I knew they were up to a very high standard, but that is all I knew.
I have now analysed all races rated in 2008 and so far the STRATEGIES for BOTH BACKING and LAYING then would be succesful.
I am posting the ratings for races rated in 2009, when my critic first appeared on thread..................
Now the question I pose to you wise ones in cheap seats is ........can you see the strategies that work......either BACKING or LAYING from ratings and results below....?
I'm telling you now that it is not "easy" to see stratgies from ratings.......................BUT I HAVE EM ( taken years to arrive at em ....but the results are ...."pretty good" on applying set strategies to races within certain criteria.
Some people GIVE UP the search for HOLY GRAIL................I am not one !
Here are ratings with some information on races for 4th MARCH 2009.................plus the comments from my critic ( NOT MUQBIL....AS HE IS A VERY WISE PERON ON FORUM)
Can you spot the STRATEGIES that "work"? IT IS NOT EASY , AS ANYONE COULD DO IT IF IT WAS !
Reason for posting this thread is to counteract anyone GIVING UP on trying to find THG re HORSES............
THIS WAS FIRST DAY MY MAIN CRITIC CAME ON THREAD...
===================================================================
4TH MARCH 2009
CATTERICK
16:20 Novices' Handicap Chase 5yo plus 3m 1f 110y Class 4 12 runners Good Good to Firm IP
1,Clear The Way 17-2
2,The Artful Fox 3RD 25-1 SP 1&3:£21.30 WITH FAV
3,Kinfayre Boy 12
4,Pendle Forest 16
5,Garleton 1ST 2-1 F
6,Bleu Pois 8
7,Jethro Tull 6 2NDF
-------------------------------------------------------------NON-QUALIFYING BACKING RACE BUT QUALIFYING LAY RACE
8,General Hardi 2ND 12-1 2&3:£35.50 WITH HIGH ODDS
9,I'm Your Man 16
10,Glacial Rambler 18
11,Ajay 17-2
12,Paddymcgintysgoat 40
17:20 Mares' Standard Nh Flat Race (conds/amateurs') 4-6yo 2m Class 6 13 runners Good Good to Firm IP race not qualifying 1
1,Lady Bluesky 2ND 7-2 JF Ex £17.90 CSF £14.22
2,Carrosa Rose 14
3,Whirlijig 3RD 8-1 2&3:£5.10 1&3:£6.10
4,Roses 1ST 7-2 JF
5,Iwantclosure 14
6,Samaret 17-2
7,Mizvot 20
------------------------------------------------------------------------ NON-QUALIFYING RACE
8,Plum Mac 25
9,Crystal Witch 14
10,Nightboat To Cairo 250
11,Carnival Fair 33
12,Lilla Sophia 33
13,Can't Remember 9-2
FONTWELL
15:00 Handicap Chase 5yo plus 2m 4f Class 5 9 runners Good to Soft
1,Ballyaahbutt 12
2,Perange 5
3,Rosoff 2ND 7-1 1&2:£7.00 WITH 2ND FAV
4,That's For Sure 7-2f
5,Killfinnan Castle 1ST 4-1 2ND F Ex £28.70 CSF £31.66
-------------------------------Ex £28.70 CSF £31.66
6,Tosula 3RD 7-1 1&3:£5.20 WITH 2ND FAV
7,Present Oriented 20
8,Dallool 7
9,Something Cristal 20
16:00 Handicap Chase 5yo plus 3m 2f 110y Class 4 7 runners Good to Soft
1,Valentia Island 3RD 11-4 2ND F
2,Hazeljack 2ND 8-1 2&3:£6.10 WITH 2ND FAV
3,Sesame Rambler 1ST 9-1 1&3:£2.90 WITH 2ND FAV
4,Le Briar Soul 5-2F
-------------------------------------------------- Straight Forecast: £73.39 Tricast: £251.18 Exacta: £46.90
5,Prey Bird 4
6,Amoreigh N/R
7,Lahinch Lad N/R
8,Monzon 7
9,That's An Idea 16
17:00 Standard Open Nh Flat Race 4-6yo 2m 2f 110y Class 6 13 runners Good to Soft
1,Alexander Beetle N/R
2,Saltara 12
3,Lillinga 20
4,Lady Zaha 50
5,City Theatre 1ST 4-1 3RD F
6,The Red Laird 3RD 17-2
7,Niceboy 16
8,Capital City 50
----------------------------------------------------------------- NON-QUALIFYING RACE
9,Legal Bid 2ND 2-1 F
10,Adamo 50
11,Forest Griffin 100
12,Gratification 5-2 2NDF
13,Presenting Diva N/R
14,So Regal 66
15,My Only Boy 100
LINGFIELD
14:10 Apprentice Handicap 4yo plus 1m Class 6 11 runners Standard
1,Cavalry Guard 3RD 7-2F
2,Sharps Gold 16
3,Alfredtheordinary 1ST 6-1 JT 3RD F
4,Bold Diva 6
5,Copper King 15-2
6,Softly Killing Me 16
-----NON-QUALIFYING BACKING RACE BUT QUALIFYING LAY RACE Straight Forecast: £96.08 Tricast: £393.61 Exacta: £154.80
7,Gingko Lady 20
8,Lancaster Lad 15-2
9,Fairly Honest 11-2 2NDF
10,Suhayl Star 2&3:£12.70 WITH FAV 2ND 16-1 1&2:£28.80 WITH JOINT 2ND FAV/3RD FAV
11,Safe Investment 25
15:10 Handicap 4yo plus 1m 5f Class 5 8 runners Standard
1,Sir Liam 3rd 4-1 2ND F
2,Lapina 11-2
3,Generous Lad 14
4,Rough Sketch 11-4F
5,Zalkani 2nd 13-2 2&3:£4.00 WITH 2ND FAV
---------------------------------------------------------------
6,Stoop To Conquer 5
7,Spiritonthemount 25
8,Shanafarahan 1st 9-1 1&3:£8.30 WITH 2ND FAV
16:10 Handicap 3yo only 7f Class 6 9 runners Standard
1,Green Agenda 1ST 5-1 JT 3RD FAV 1&3:£5.20 WITH 2ND FAV
2,Saints Bay 5
3,Pedregal 9
4,Buckle Up 12
5,Sunshine Ellie 12
------------------------Straight Forecast: £128.74 Tricast: £682.42 Exacta: £191.40
6,Miss Tikitiboo 3RD 9-2 2NDF
7,Daily Double 8
8,Private Passion 3 F
9,Bold Ring 1&2 £34.80 WITH 3RD FAV 2ND 28-1 2&3:£25.00 WITH 2ND FAV
16:40 Handicap 4yo plus 5f Class 4 5 runners Standard
1,Chjimes 1ST 11-8F
2,Fromsong 9-2
3,Merlin's Dancer 4
-------------------------------------------------------------
4,Qadar 2ND 4-1
5,Wibbadune 8
17:10 Handicap 3yo only 1m 2f Class 4 6 runners Standard
1,Ladies Dancing 3RD 100-30
2,Sgt Roberts 12
3,Fong's Alibi 3 2NDF
4,Lord Chancellor 1ST 9-4F
--------------------------------------------------------------
5,Alexander Gulch 2ND 11-2
6,Orsippus 6
WOLVERHAMPTON
19:20 Handicap 4yo plus 6f Class 5 10 runners Standard
1,Back In The Red 14
2,Street Power 2ND 11-10 FStraight Forecast: £17.86 Tricast: £100.62 Exacta: £39.90
3,Flying Valentino 50
4,Smirfys Systems 9-2 2NDF
5,Storey Hill 28
6,Stonecrabstomorrow 1ST 8-1 SP Swingers:1&2:£4.80, 2&3:£11.40, 1&3:£21.30
------------------------------------------------------------NON-QUALIFYING BACKING RACE BUT QUALIFYING LAY RACE
7,Albero di Giuda N/R
8,Gwilym 20
9,Russian Symphony 13-2
10,Red Cape 3RD 10-1
11,Know No Fear 14
20:20 Handicap 3yo only 1m 1f 103y Class 6 11 runners StandardStraight Forecast: £62.56 Tricast: £473.41 Exacta: £34.00
1,Duke of Normandy 2ND 12-1 2&3:£0.00
2,Barcode 13-2 3RD F
3,Tae Kwon Do 3RD 8-1 1&3:£12.40 WITH 2ND FAV
4,Turn To Dreams 12
5,High Cross 1ST 5-1 SP 2ND F1&2:£18.60
6,Amazing Blue Sky 8
---------------------------------------------------------NON-QUALIFYING BACKING RACE BUT QUALIFYING LAY RACE
7,Graycliffe 16
8,Dark Oasis 3-1F
9,Fleur de Lion 25
10,Dead Cat Bounce 14
11,Tiffany Lady N/R
12,Kneesy Earsy Nosey 14
20:50 Handicap 4yo plus 1m 1f Class 6 12 runners Standard Straight Forecast: £73.67 Tricast: £1351.48 Exacta: £49.50
1,Amber Moon 1ST 9-2 3RD FAV Straight Forecast: £62.56 Tricast: £473.41 Exacta: £34.00
2,Miss Clarice 3RD 20-1 1&3 £17.20 WITH 3RD FAV
3,Whodunit 3 2ND F
4,Karmei 9
5,Dancing Duo 2ND 16-1 1&2 Not won, WITH 3RD FAV
6,Tobago Reef 33
7,Carnival Dream 50
--------NON-QUALIFYING BACKING RACE BUT QUALIFYING LAY RACE Swingers:1&2:£0.00, 2&3:£0.00, 1&3:£17.20
8,Mont Cervin 28
9,Tabulate 11-2
10,Trees of Green 5-2F
11,Almora Guru 14
12,Winged Farasi N/R
13,Mays Louise 33
21:20 Handicap 4yo plus 1m 4f Class 3 7 runners Standard
1,La Estrella 9-4F
2,Swiss Act 2ND 7-1 Ex £34.90 CSF £35.45
3,Cape Colony 9-2
4,Distinctive Image 1ST 9-2SP CO3F
-------------------------------------------------------------Swingers:1&2:£3.30, 2&3:£4.10, 1&3:£2.60
5,Maslak 16
6,Humble Opinion 3RD 9-2 Straight Forecast: £35.45 Tricast: £149.17 Exacta: £34.90
7,Count Trevisio 8
===================================================================================
The bumper races are not QUALIFYING RACES so ignore.
The 7.20. 8.20 and 8.50 races are not QUALIFYING RACES for BACKING STRATEGIES.
STRATEGY QUALIFYING BACKS WINNERS AT SP ODDS PROFIT/(LOSS) AT LEVEL STAKES
ONE 0
TWO 1
THREE 1
TOTALS 2 LOSS 2 POINTS
CUMULATIVE POSITION
QUALIFYING BETS 8 CUMULATIVE PROFIT 18 POINTS
AT BF SP THE CUMULATIVE WINNERS ODDS WERE 28.71.
DFCIRONMAN 01 Apr 16:53
Technically the 4.10 race on DAY 1 ( 3rd march 2009) was not a QUALIFYING race for BACKING STRATEGIES ....so the profits should read
DAY + 11 points
DAY 2 ( - 5 ) points
Cumulative Profit + 6 points
================================================================================================
goodbye1 04 Mar 20:24
VERY VERY SAD
DFCIRONMAN 04 Mar 23:36
Muqbil 04 Mar 16:59
DFC, you are obviously passionate about your ratings but I honestly don't see where this is going?
You could make a profit for a few months and still not know whether the ratings actually mean anything.
I have been looking forward to your system for ages and wish you well and hope you make profit, if you do I fear it will be as a result of luck rather than any ratings.
==========================================================
Only 2nd day M ........and i did state at start of thread I NEED to get up to speed on current racing ...etc
Also, I need time to get the 4 main BETTING STRATEGIES imbeded into my noggin ..........as i was not a LAYER , then it is "foreign" to me and the mindset is totally different from being a BACKER ......
As I obviously know what the system is good at .....and know , through race /ratings analysis, what strategies do work and what ones don't................. then all I can say is that from last two days races the SYTEM is doing what i want it to do.....and the 4 STRATEGIES are fine too .....just me that is not used to operating with such BETTING STRATEGIES that i need to get adept at using.
All the races stats from over 1,250 races rated last year indicate ....
1. 72% of winners were in top 50% + 1 of field.......for all race types ...ie not for certain types only.
2. high odds winners were , from memory, with 46% of qualifying selections ( ie 46% of total number in fields ) achieved 56% of the total high odds winners. THIS INDICATES AN EDGE IMO. covering all races without being SELECTIVE.
....
3. From detailed analysis of how the 4 main BETTING STRATEGIES would have done on rated races ....1,250 at least done......all of them would produce a good profit with high ROI.
I do not believe ...naturally that the above stats are "lucky" ...but down to the system doing what it was mainly devised to do ....get high odds horses that might win in top half of ratings.
As i know that I / the system is only getting 72% winners in top 50% + 1 of field, then i even have a strategy to cover the 28% winners that I get/the system gets wrong.......it/I get it wrong as some of factors applied are based on certain factors been deemed to be "right"...........and If i/the system gets those facors "wrong" ....and i only do that 28% of time approx..............then there are reasons why this other strategy works.........and works to high ROI.
It may from an outsider's perspective that the ratings appear a mish mash from race to race....but the stats support the sytem is operating to good standard sufficient generally to make a good leve of profit.........
As there have been few qualifying races for most of strategies over ONLY TWO DAYS ....then this combined with me getting used to those strategies etc...making mistakes ...is just part of the learning process for me.
I'm confident the 4 STRATEGIES work allied to system ratings.....................too early for anyone to deem anything from TWO DAYS .....wait til end of MONTH then by then you should see profits getting more regularly made ...and losses occurring less frequently .....as long as profit more than loss that will be main thing ....and it is likely that i can achieve 3/4 points MIMIMUM per day on average over long period........ the ERRORS should get less and less as i learn etc.......and more and more qualifying bets will arise ......so I'm still optimistic AND REALISTIC re it being early days ....with best yet to come.
So will plough on and try to get better at applying strategies to a system that works generally to a high standard ......"good" is perhaps an understatement ]:)
As for lee h2 ....he ain't got a clue about how system's work ......certainly by cheap comments from cheap seats he should only comment on something he knows about rather than just be a parrot repeating the same nonsense all the time.............................critisise my football bets ...no probs there , as i admit i just ad-lib there ....but for Pete's sake and mine ....stop repeating same rubbish all the time.
ONLY PROFIT OVER ALONG PERIOD WILL BE LIKELY TO SATISFY YOU M THAT THERE IS A SOUNDLY BASED SYSTEM DOING ITS JOB.......only a few high odds ones threatened to win in BRITAIN today ...and system had most of em in top rated ones....so that is what is devised mainly for.....so watch AND ALLOW FOR ME TO GET USED TO APPLYING STRATEGIES.......
Better watch some of my football bets nowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww....need BOCA to win now as main bet was DRAW/BOCA ......
GN the noooooooooo and thanks for contribution M....always good to hear your views ..hope naps will keep coming in for you .......they better , as I'm now viewing 12 approx races a day .....so bound to get more and more frequent winners at reasonable odds .....so will be trying to get to PREMIER before end of year .....as only looking at say 1/2 races for last 5/6 months ....my naps in comp have been abysmal........................not using system though ]:)...just guessing :D
GN the nooooooooooooooo
==========================================================
Any views/ideas re strategies that "work" either BACKING or LAYING would be appreciated ( I have devised my own ones ....but others ides/views would be interesting to hear....whether GOOD or BAD)
The thread might spark some interesting views re RATINGS/ideas etc etc etc ....so thought I'd post this to stimulate the brain cells.........for me!
G M the noooooooooooooooooo
=======================================================
BTW ignore all the NON QUALIFYING c ra p I posted originally....as total irrelevant to strategies devised!
To be honest I did not really know how to use my system's ratings of races......
It has taken years to develop a system......and there have been many "problems" ...HURDLES ....to over come......
The guy in cheap seats.....heavily pestered me on thread re the ratings.......To be fair to him/she, I did not know how to use them. I knew they were up to a very high standard, but that is all I knew.
I have now analysed all races rated in 2008 and so far the STRATEGIES for BOTH BACKING and LAYING then would be succesful.
I am posting the ratings for races rated in 2009, when my critic first appeared on thread..................
Now the question I pose to you wise ones in cheap seats is ........can you see the strategies that work......either BACKING or LAYING from ratings and results below....?
I'm telling you now that it is not "easy" to see stratgies from ratings.......................BUT I HAVE EM ( taken years to arrive at em ....but the results are ...."pretty good" on applying set strategies to races within certain criteria.
Some people GIVE UP the search for HOLY GRAIL................I am not one !
Here are ratings with some information on races for 4th MARCH 2009.................plus the comments from my critic ( NOT MUQBIL....AS HE IS A VERY WISE PERON ON FORUM)
Can you spot the STRATEGIES that "work"? IT IS NOT EASY , AS ANYONE COULD DO IT IF IT WAS !
Reason for posting this thread is to counteract anyone GIVING UP on trying to find THG re HORSES............
THIS WAS FIRST DAY MY MAIN CRITIC CAME ON THREAD...
===================================================================
4TH MARCH 2009
CATTERICK
16:20 Novices' Handicap Chase 5yo plus 3m 1f 110y Class 4 12 runners Good Good to Firm IP
1,Clear The Way 17-2
2,The Artful Fox 3RD 25-1 SP 1&3:£21.30 WITH FAV
3,Kinfayre Boy 12
4,Pendle Forest 16
5,Garleton 1ST 2-1 F
6,Bleu Pois 8
7,Jethro Tull 6 2NDF
-------------------------------------------------------------NON-QUALIFYING BACKING RACE BUT QUALIFYING LAY RACE
8,General Hardi 2ND 12-1 2&3:£35.50 WITH HIGH ODDS
9,I'm Your Man 16
10,Glacial Rambler 18
11,Ajay 17-2
12,Paddymcgintysgoat 40
17:20 Mares' Standard Nh Flat Race (conds/amateurs') 4-6yo 2m Class 6 13 runners Good Good to Firm IP race not qualifying 1
1,Lady Bluesky 2ND 7-2 JF Ex £17.90 CSF £14.22
2,Carrosa Rose 14
3,Whirlijig 3RD 8-1 2&3:£5.10 1&3:£6.10
4,Roses 1ST 7-2 JF
5,Iwantclosure 14
6,Samaret 17-2
7,Mizvot 20
------------------------------------------------------------------------ NON-QUALIFYING RACE
8,Plum Mac 25
9,Crystal Witch 14
10,Nightboat To Cairo 250
11,Carnival Fair 33
12,Lilla Sophia 33
13,Can't Remember 9-2
FONTWELL
15:00 Handicap Chase 5yo plus 2m 4f Class 5 9 runners Good to Soft
1,Ballyaahbutt 12
2,Perange 5
3,Rosoff 2ND 7-1 1&2:£7.00 WITH 2ND FAV
4,That's For Sure 7-2f
5,Killfinnan Castle 1ST 4-1 2ND F Ex £28.70 CSF £31.66
-------------------------------Ex £28.70 CSF £31.66
6,Tosula 3RD 7-1 1&3:£5.20 WITH 2ND FAV
7,Present Oriented 20
8,Dallool 7
9,Something Cristal 20
16:00 Handicap Chase 5yo plus 3m 2f 110y Class 4 7 runners Good to Soft
1,Valentia Island 3RD 11-4 2ND F
2,Hazeljack 2ND 8-1 2&3:£6.10 WITH 2ND FAV
3,Sesame Rambler 1ST 9-1 1&3:£2.90 WITH 2ND FAV
4,Le Briar Soul 5-2F
-------------------------------------------------- Straight Forecast: £73.39 Tricast: £251.18 Exacta: £46.90
5,Prey Bird 4
6,Amoreigh N/R
7,Lahinch Lad N/R
8,Monzon 7
9,That's An Idea 16
17:00 Standard Open Nh Flat Race 4-6yo 2m 2f 110y Class 6 13 runners Good to Soft
1,Alexander Beetle N/R
2,Saltara 12
3,Lillinga 20
4,Lady Zaha 50
5,City Theatre 1ST 4-1 3RD F
6,The Red Laird 3RD 17-2
7,Niceboy 16
8,Capital City 50
----------------------------------------------------------------- NON-QUALIFYING RACE
9,Legal Bid 2ND 2-1 F
10,Adamo 50
11,Forest Griffin 100
12,Gratification 5-2 2NDF
13,Presenting Diva N/R
14,So Regal 66
15,My Only Boy 100
LINGFIELD
14:10 Apprentice Handicap 4yo plus 1m Class 6 11 runners Standard
1,Cavalry Guard 3RD 7-2F
2,Sharps Gold 16
3,Alfredtheordinary 1ST 6-1 JT 3RD F
4,Bold Diva 6
5,Copper King 15-2
6,Softly Killing Me 16
-----NON-QUALIFYING BACKING RACE BUT QUALIFYING LAY RACE Straight Forecast: £96.08 Tricast: £393.61 Exacta: £154.80
7,Gingko Lady 20
8,Lancaster Lad 15-2
9,Fairly Honest 11-2 2NDF
10,Suhayl Star 2&3:£12.70 WITH FAV 2ND 16-1 1&2:£28.80 WITH JOINT 2ND FAV/3RD FAV
11,Safe Investment 25
15:10 Handicap 4yo plus 1m 5f Class 5 8 runners Standard
1,Sir Liam 3rd 4-1 2ND F
2,Lapina 11-2
3,Generous Lad 14
4,Rough Sketch 11-4F
5,Zalkani 2nd 13-2 2&3:£4.00 WITH 2ND FAV
---------------------------------------------------------------
6,Stoop To Conquer 5
7,Spiritonthemount 25
8,Shanafarahan 1st 9-1 1&3:£8.30 WITH 2ND FAV
16:10 Handicap 3yo only 7f Class 6 9 runners Standard
1,Green Agenda 1ST 5-1 JT 3RD FAV 1&3:£5.20 WITH 2ND FAV
2,Saints Bay 5
3,Pedregal 9
4,Buckle Up 12
5,Sunshine Ellie 12
------------------------Straight Forecast: £128.74 Tricast: £682.42 Exacta: £191.40
6,Miss Tikitiboo 3RD 9-2 2NDF
7,Daily Double 8
8,Private Passion 3 F
9,Bold Ring 1&2 £34.80 WITH 3RD FAV 2ND 28-1 2&3:£25.00 WITH 2ND FAV
16:40 Handicap 4yo plus 5f Class 4 5 runners Standard
1,Chjimes 1ST 11-8F
2,Fromsong 9-2
3,Merlin's Dancer 4
-------------------------------------------------------------
4,Qadar 2ND 4-1
5,Wibbadune 8
17:10 Handicap 3yo only 1m 2f Class 4 6 runners Standard
1,Ladies Dancing 3RD 100-30
2,Sgt Roberts 12
3,Fong's Alibi 3 2NDF
4,Lord Chancellor 1ST 9-4F
--------------------------------------------------------------
5,Alexander Gulch 2ND 11-2
6,Orsippus 6
WOLVERHAMPTON
19:20 Handicap 4yo plus 6f Class 5 10 runners Standard
1,Back In The Red 14
2,Street Power 2ND 11-10 FStraight Forecast: £17.86 Tricast: £100.62 Exacta: £39.90
3,Flying Valentino 50
4,Smirfys Systems 9-2 2NDF
5,Storey Hill 28
6,Stonecrabstomorrow 1ST 8-1 SP Swingers:1&2:£4.80, 2&3:£11.40, 1&3:£21.30
------------------------------------------------------------NON-QUALIFYING BACKING RACE BUT QUALIFYING LAY RACE
7,Albero di Giuda N/R
8,Gwilym 20
9,Russian Symphony 13-2
10,Red Cape 3RD 10-1
11,Know No Fear 14
20:20 Handicap 3yo only 1m 1f 103y Class 6 11 runners StandardStraight Forecast: £62.56 Tricast: £473.41 Exacta: £34.00
1,Duke of Normandy 2ND 12-1 2&3:£0.00
2,Barcode 13-2 3RD F
3,Tae Kwon Do 3RD 8-1 1&3:£12.40 WITH 2ND FAV
4,Turn To Dreams 12
5,High Cross 1ST 5-1 SP 2ND F1&2:£18.60
6,Amazing Blue Sky 8
---------------------------------------------------------NON-QUALIFYING BACKING RACE BUT QUALIFYING LAY RACE
7,Graycliffe 16
8,Dark Oasis 3-1F
9,Fleur de Lion 25
10,Dead Cat Bounce 14
11,Tiffany Lady N/R
12,Kneesy Earsy Nosey 14
20:50 Handicap 4yo plus 1m 1f Class 6 12 runners Standard Straight Forecast: £73.67 Tricast: £1351.48 Exacta: £49.50
1,Amber Moon 1ST 9-2 3RD FAV Straight Forecast: £62.56 Tricast: £473.41 Exacta: £34.00
2,Miss Clarice 3RD 20-1 1&3 £17.20 WITH 3RD FAV
3,Whodunit 3 2ND F
4,Karmei 9
5,Dancing Duo 2ND 16-1 1&2 Not won, WITH 3RD FAV
6,Tobago Reef 33
7,Carnival Dream 50
--------NON-QUALIFYING BACKING RACE BUT QUALIFYING LAY RACE Swingers:1&2:£0.00, 2&3:£0.00, 1&3:£17.20
8,Mont Cervin 28
9,Tabulate 11-2
10,Trees of Green 5-2F
11,Almora Guru 14
12,Winged Farasi N/R
13,Mays Louise 33
21:20 Handicap 4yo plus 1m 4f Class 3 7 runners Standard
1,La Estrella 9-4F
2,Swiss Act 2ND 7-1 Ex £34.90 CSF £35.45
3,Cape Colony 9-2
4,Distinctive Image 1ST 9-2SP CO3F
-------------------------------------------------------------Swingers:1&2:£3.30, 2&3:£4.10, 1&3:£2.60
5,Maslak 16
6,Humble Opinion 3RD 9-2 Straight Forecast: £35.45 Tricast: £149.17 Exacta: £34.90
7,Count Trevisio 8
===================================================================================
The bumper races are not QUALIFYING RACES so ignore.
The 7.20. 8.20 and 8.50 races are not QUALIFYING RACES for BACKING STRATEGIES.
STRATEGY QUALIFYING BACKS WINNERS AT SP ODDS PROFIT/(LOSS) AT LEVEL STAKES
ONE 0
TWO 1
THREE 1
TOTALS 2 LOSS 2 POINTS
CUMULATIVE POSITION
QUALIFYING BETS 8 CUMULATIVE PROFIT 18 POINTS
AT BF SP THE CUMULATIVE WINNERS ODDS WERE 28.71.
DFCIRONMAN 01 Apr 16:53
Technically the 4.10 race on DAY 1 ( 3rd march 2009) was not a QUALIFYING race for BACKING STRATEGIES ....so the profits should read
DAY + 11 points
DAY 2 ( - 5 ) points
Cumulative Profit + 6 points
================================================================================================
goodbye1 04 Mar 20:24
VERY VERY SAD
DFCIRONMAN 04 Mar 23:36
Muqbil 04 Mar 16:59
DFC, you are obviously passionate about your ratings but I honestly don't see where this is going?
You could make a profit for a few months and still not know whether the ratings actually mean anything.
I have been looking forward to your system for ages and wish you well and hope you make profit, if you do I fear it will be as a result of luck rather than any ratings.
==========================================================
Only 2nd day M ........and i did state at start of thread I NEED to get up to speed on current racing ...etc
Also, I need time to get the 4 main BETTING STRATEGIES imbeded into my noggin ..........as i was not a LAYER , then it is "foreign" to me and the mindset is totally different from being a BACKER ......
As I obviously know what the system is good at .....and know , through race /ratings analysis, what strategies do work and what ones don't................. then all I can say is that from last two days races the SYTEM is doing what i want it to do.....and the 4 STRATEGIES are fine too .....just me that is not used to operating with such BETTING STRATEGIES that i need to get adept at using.
All the races stats from over 1,250 races rated last year indicate ....
1. 72% of winners were in top 50% + 1 of field.......for all race types ...ie not for certain types only.
2. high odds winners were , from memory, with 46% of qualifying selections ( ie 46% of total number in fields ) achieved 56% of the total high odds winners. THIS INDICATES AN EDGE IMO. covering all races without being SELECTIVE.
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3. From detailed analysis of how the 4 main BETTING STRATEGIES would have done on rated races ....1,250 at least done......all of them would produce a good profit with high ROI.
I do not believe ...naturally that the above stats are "lucky" ...but down to the system doing what it was mainly devised to do ....get high odds horses that might win in top half of ratings.
As i know that I / the system is only getting 72% winners in top 50% + 1 of field, then i even have a strategy to cover the 28% winners that I get/the system gets wrong.......it/I get it wrong as some of factors applied are based on certain factors been deemed to be "right"...........and If i/the system gets those facors "wrong" ....and i only do that 28% of time approx..............then there are reasons why this other strategy works.........and works to high ROI.
It may from an outsider's perspective that the ratings appear a mish mash from race to race....but the stats support the sytem is operating to good standard sufficient generally to make a good leve of profit.........
As there have been few qualifying races for most of strategies over ONLY TWO DAYS ....then this combined with me getting used to those strategies etc...making mistakes ...is just part of the learning process for me.
I'm confident the 4 STRATEGIES work allied to system ratings.....................too early for anyone to deem anything from TWO DAYS .....wait til end of MONTH then by then you should see profits getting more regularly made ...and losses occurring less frequently .....as long as profit more than loss that will be main thing ....and it is likely that i can achieve 3/4 points MIMIMUM per day on average over long period........ the ERRORS should get less and less as i learn etc.......and more and more qualifying bets will arise ......so I'm still optimistic AND REALISTIC re it being early days ....with best yet to come.
So will plough on and try to get better at applying strategies to a system that works generally to a high standard ......"good" is perhaps an understatement ]:)
As for lee h2 ....he ain't got a clue about how system's work ......certainly by cheap comments from cheap seats he should only comment on something he knows about rather than just be a parrot repeating the same nonsense all the time.............................critisise my football bets ...no probs there , as i admit i just ad-lib there ....but for Pete's sake and mine ....stop repeating same rubbish all the time.
ONLY PROFIT OVER ALONG PERIOD WILL BE LIKELY TO SATISFY YOU M THAT THERE IS A SOUNDLY BASED SYSTEM DOING ITS JOB.......only a few high odds ones threatened to win in BRITAIN today ...and system had most of em in top rated ones....so that is what is devised mainly for.....so watch AND ALLOW FOR ME TO GET USED TO APPLYING STRATEGIES.......
Better watch some of my football bets nowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww....need BOCA to win now as main bet was DRAW/BOCA ......
GN the noooooooooo and thanks for contribution M....always good to hear your views ..hope naps will keep coming in for you .......they better , as I'm now viewing 12 approx races a day .....so bound to get more and more frequent winners at reasonable odds .....so will be trying to get to PREMIER before end of year .....as only looking at say 1/2 races for last 5/6 months ....my naps in comp have been abysmal........................not using system though ]:)...just guessing :D
GN the nooooooooooooooo
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Any views/ideas re strategies that "work" either BACKING or LAYING would be appreciated ( I have devised my own ones ....but others ides/views would be interesting to hear....whether GOOD or BAD)
The thread might spark some interesting views re RATINGS/ideas etc etc etc ....so thought I'd post this to stimulate the brain cells.........for me!
G M the noooooooooooooooooo
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BTW ignore all the NON QUALIFYING c ra p I posted originally....as total irrelevant to strategies devised!
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BTW - FOOTBALL is just for the masses........................who can fiddle about believing they have an "edge"........It is such a volatile game .....subject to the refs decisions/non-decisions....and effects of players being either involved PRIOR to AFTER games in INTERNATIONAL matches etc etc etc
HORSE RACING is by far superior to FOOTBALL for finding "edge/s"...................... |
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Blimey, give us week to read the thread topic and another to digest it and I will try and post something relavant, I hope.[;)]
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LordBobbbin 20 Sep 11 02:01
I don't know Dev's MO well enough to know whether he had a self discipline problem. My recollections of him were that he just didn't have a clue how to bet or what he should be betting on or whether he was seeing something that the other people in the market weren't. If he at least has some sort of idea of what he should be looking for, that might allow him to start succeeding. It isn't all about self-discipline, despite what Mark Douglas says. If you don't have a method for picking out value, you can be a Trappist Monk, with all its built-in discipline, and you still won't be able to make it pay. (Plus you'd be booted out of the abbey for gambling!) ================================================================================================ Picked this post off a NON-BELIEVER'S thread...........................as basically the STRATEGIES are built on "value"......both BACKING and LAYING! The above post is bang on the money    |
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"relevant" BFF
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Sorry BFF ...had a "few" pints/+ other drinks..............and we all get spelling wrong when typng
 fast at this late **** in mornin!G M the noooooooooooooooooooooooo ...I await the thoughts /views |
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W H ORE
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So DFC, how do these ratings differ from, speed figures, for example?
I think it's probably a bit hard for us to comment without seeing more of the ratings.. (I've just bought Vasily Grossman's Love and Fate. I thought that looked vast, but I think this thread could end up being longer by several hundred pages!) |
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Very good thread and agree that you do need a strategy as well as discipline to succeed, plus being a maverick is important too, don't worry bout the grammar, we all fluff it up sometimes and surprised you can do that after a drink[;)]
One crucial actor to winning is rating systems but using your own is much better than the industry ones which are leached on by the general odds compiling clergy, thats were the creativity comes in and insight, horse racing although deemed safer than say dog racing has some complexity that is vast though as there are so many different courses,trainers,jockeys, weights and other things to take into account, its enough to blow a mainframe computer of its base  |
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Its like this, you could study a horse race really hard and come up with say two value bets according to your ratings, and not realize that a certain trainer has won this particular race 3 times in last 6 years, but you didnt account for that and that trainer has a poor looking horse in the race that doesn't look value, by some miracle it wins, so much for ratings in that case
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SPEED FIGURES are all well and good..........but with BRITISH races.......the GOING obviously effects the TIMES!
How do you covert a horse running on HEAVY going say in BEGINNERS CHASE at this point in season to say a horse running on GOOD TO FIRM earlier in season ? I don't believe SPEED FIGURES would be too helpful re NH racing. AW racing can vary re GOING too.........................and also other conditions that are relevant to "SPEED"....................... TURF racing can have GOINGS varying from HARD( not seen that for a while )....to HEAVY............and at different points in season then certain horses , with FACTORS in favour,do well on GOINGS suitable for them at the distance etc etc .......................So how can SPEED FIGURES convert performance on different GOINGS at different points in season? There is far more VARIETY of race types with BRITISH racing to say USA racing .........and most of the races are AW races in USA...........I know the GOING will vary there too, and it is relevant , and SPEED FIGURES probably are more useful where GOING is more constant....than to the range of GOINGS in UK etc I thought it was worth....stirring the pot.....without, I hope, giving too much away! Only stayed up football ...and currently 2-2 ....3-3 would be wonderful....BUT unlikely to happen PROFIT made whatever happens ...as long as game finishes!G M the nooooooooooooo LB .....As usual your posts are always "interesting". |
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median races cant be that profitable either if say only 3 horses have been out before and 6 haven't or if most have only had 1 run and are unknown quantities, breeding and training might play a part in those races though but still very hard to culture edges on dark horses.
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OK ...if you were a LAYER....what horse would you LAY based on ratings for first race above?
4TH MARCH 2009 CATTERICK 16:20 Novices' Handicap Chase 5yo plus 3m 1f 110y Class 4 12 runners Good Good to Firm IP 1,Clear The Way 17-2 2,The Artful Fox 3RD 25-1 SP 1&3:£21.30 WITH FAV 3,Kinfayre Boy 12 4,Pendle Forest 16 5,Garleton 1ST 2-1 F 6,Bleu Pois 8 7,Jethro Tull 6 2NDF ------------------------------------------... BACKING RACE BUT QUALIFYING LAY RACE 8,General Hardi 2ND 12-1 2&3:£35.50 WITH HIGH ODDS 9,I'm Your Man 16 10,Glacial Rambler 18 11,Ajay 17-2 12,Paddymcgintysgoat 40 |
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When I was 18 I wrote a program that looked at horse race times and noticed that the faster than average time for distance was quite useful but the going alters these times achieved, aslo on the NH its even harder to judge on times in sticky going and big difference in how hard or easy a NH trak is, some are fast like kempton and some are plain hard like plumpton or uttoxeter
(probably slept all those tracks wrong) The speed ratings dished out by the industry are very basic and sometimes mis-leading |
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well its 3 miles so would be tempted laying a top weight if too short in price, perhaps clear the way
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YUP ......
Do such SPEED RATINGS take account of head-wind? Time of day? Temperature? etc etc etc |
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Please ignore the grammar, combination of tiredness and that wandering cursor bug in windows xp.
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BFF - weight is not shown above......but ratings do take account of weight!
RANKING and ODDS are my HINT! |
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2 horses stand out in first race...re RANKINGS and ODDS that indicate "value" .....as relying on RANKING being up to good standard!
What are they? |
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Funny you should say that, I have noticed that there are seasonal factors involved with greyhound racing, so much so that its radically changed my priority in form evaluation.
Not talking about the wide bias when its wet, no, more interestingly nearly all tracks have shown a preference for early paced runners in autumn and winter and in spring and summer when the temperature is up its stayers that predominate, I have attributed this to 2 factors. 1.....cold weather tightens tendons and inhibits runners that rely more on pace to stay when blood flow is reaching the legs better, early types that rely on stored energy do better, hence why crayford in winter is won by 90% of races by the leader at the first bend. 2.....when the track is fast the inside becomes very fast and much shorter trip so shortest way round, inside runners benefit and a lot of these are actually stayers. The effect is as much as 5% in favor on strike rates which is big in terms of the edge. |
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maybe artful fox as at 25/1 and 2nd top weight its a no hoper?
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Im off to bed now DFC, too much to do tomorrow, catch up then
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BFF ----- the above is RATINGS for a race ....NOT the RACE CARD!
LAYING .......1 .....the "value" , based on RANKINGS, is between 2 horse....namely 5,Garleton 1ST 2-1 F.....A HORSE ABOVE THE LINE IN RANKAND THE LOWEST ODDS ONE OF 2......AND 11,Ajay 17-2 - A HORSE IN LOWER BIT OF RANKINGS( BELOW THE LINE) AND BEING RANKED 11TH IN 12 HORSE RACE AT 17-2 SP IS THE "VALUe2 TOO. So .........what one do you LAY ( ONLY IN WIN MARKET)........the higher odds one at SP of 2.......AJAY! BOTH qualify as , at the odds SP, as being "VALUE" to LAY.................but the golden rule is always lay the next one up above the lowest odds one ( by doing so you are also using MARKET RANKINGS as being important too.....lowest odds at SP ignore re the qualifying horses to lay etc ) Apply the same "logic" to other races above to find what horse to lay.................and was my CRITIC correct re the RATINGS being rubbish etc etc.......................? On that particular race the BACKING strategy would have failed....re BACKING top rated to win....and backing the lowest odds one of the next two down ratings to win......BUT THAT IS JUST 1 RACE....... Anyway ....just giving some "food for thought"..........on that thought...I'm away to grab some cheese on toast ......and say G M the nooooooooooooooooo...AGAIN ...Thanks for posts. |
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acornel 20 Sep 11 12:49
"...but all been worthwhile exercise." ==> from which point of view, DFC? At the first glance your "system" does not look to be very profitable ... or am I wrong? DFCIRONMAN 20 Sep 11 13:08 "First glance" means little A.......... You have to analyse hundreds of races ...rate over 10,000 horses...detail results ( when i say "detail" ..........that is fairly comprehensive detail!). Gain a deep understanding of what the system does, then seek the VALUE from it using a constant way of doing it! Check the post on other thread re RACE 1....for LAYING purpose, where "VALUE" /RANK of horse in ratings/MARKET ODDS enable the selection of 1 horse to lay in WIN market. Apply what I posted to other races where 10 runners ( it works that day with races with less runners, but generally works well where 10 or more). Cursory glances mean nothing......... BTW no horse will be layed where odds are 10-1 SP in a race of less than 21 runners......... Gotta go find nap for competition.......Cheers the nooooooooooooo |
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Surely you would note from above rated races that there was only 1 race where the winner was rated BELOW LINE acornel!
If you had deep understanding of ratings etc etc....then that FACT alone on above ratings should indicate a STRONG SYSTEM of ratings. |
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Some good stuff in there DFC...though I have a q...what determines where the line is drawn in the ratings that seperates the 'aboves' from the 'belows' (given that most of the winners were in the 'aboves' section of ratings) ?
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S - Cheers ......The line is drawn at 50% + 1 of field size after N/Rs are out......
It in effect in an odd number race has most runners above the line, as does an even number field size. this is just based on experience on how the system can have winners just above the line......RATINGS have certain bias in them when being done, and a horse can have many factors in favour, but fail to get subjective KEY FACTORS for a race so does not make top 3/4 in ratings....but still is within what I consider range to have a chance to win....generally. You will have noted there are a number of horses winning in above ratings that were just above the line ! Obviously there will be last few seconds N/Rs etc ....but that is just racing.....and in long run should not make any real impact on results....I hope. |
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Cheers DFC...I'd like to get into this a bit more but I have to leave for work...one last q though before I go out...are the ratings your own or are they pulled from official ratings in the RP or somewhere ?
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BTW - i only picked the above day .....as it was 1st day that I posted ratings on a thread in 2009 when my "critic" appeared.
Most races I rated were in 2008.....and only a few in 2009....and none since, as took nearly 2 years , working a few hours a week, to analyse results etc etc. Currently I am waiting on friend to complete some items that need to be sorted for system to be workable.....Hopefully he will have this by end of month!( there was a family bereavement recently, so again this has delayed me starting to apply set STRATEGIES.......but can't do ratings without friend getting system sorted !) If you select any date from say MARCH 2008 to say AUGUST 2008 .....i can post ratings for that day ...IF I USED SYSTEM THAT DAY. |
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Own ratings.......Cheers the noooooooooooooo
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Only started to test applying LAY STRATEGY to races rated in past ......and over 9 days races in APRIL 2008 the following stats are -
NET ODDS PROFIT OF FROM SELECTIONS LAY IN NUMBER NUMBER WIN MARKET TOTAL HORSES OF NUMBER COMMISION ODDS THAT WINNING RAN LAYS LAYS 697.62 1331 7 94 45.48 -4.35 I know it is only 94 selections in 94 races over 9 days.........but the results for this STRATEGY are reasonably "good" as giving 5.89% ROI.....SO FAR! Will take me weeks to apply STRATEGY re LAYING to races with at least 10 runners ( though appears to "work" with less runners....though the ceiling on LAYS at 10-1 SP would need to be adjusted due to loower field size!). Is 5.89% indicating there MIGHT be a grail edge here? |
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Will post it differently
ODDS OF SELECTIONS TOTAL ODDS 697.62 ============================== NUMBER HORSES THAT RAN 1331 ============================== NUMBER OF WINNING LAYS 7 ============================== NUMBER OF SELECTIONS 94 ============================= NET PROFIT FROM LAY IN WIN MARKET 45.48 ============================== COMMISION -4.35 ============================== Easier to read! Cheers the noooooooooo |
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ratings great for flagging "potential" plays, whether it be back or lay.
From there, you need to micro it then decide the level of risk on the play. i.e.: I have a simple "form read" filter for dogs. Strike rate for laying is in such a way that it works 100% at Nottingham, less at other tracks. Another, over two years, any time a lay filter is 'unsuccessful', the following race that it flags is 100% (over three years of data). Another that looks at classes is, like the previous, when 'unsuccessful', the following race in the same category is next to 100% (i.e. 21 alerts the past ten days: one lay at 4/1 kicked me back. Return on Level Stakes = +-17.) For the last two, if I had played every flag, the ROI is low. P A T I E N C E |
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Just using the CRUDE 10-1 SP exclusion from laying, if race is 20 or under, down to 10 runners....but seems to be a reasonable limit.....but in practice there will be last few seconds market changes, and where a horse is a borderline one re 10-1 SP limit this is where DECISION will need to made LAY or NOT.....If odds are well below 10-1 SP, then it will be automatic LAY.....SO FAR re strategy.
I suppose if I was DAFT enough....and some might say i am .......LAYING EVERY HORSE BELOW LINE IN WIN MARKET WOULD , on the day above, given a whopping PROFIT! ( only 1 winner at 9-1 SP beow line that day)................a bit like the thread re LAYING 66-1 shots....there will be many days like above....but when the 300-1 SP one wins....and it will , as nobody/system is "perfect"!!!!, then this would be high risk strategy IF HIT came DAY 1. |
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The post at 14:04 by me should state 8 DAYS .......not 9 days .....Had a late night/morning and taken its toll!
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9 was correct......should not have put whisky into the GUINNESS
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very interested in this! great use of ratings, knowledge etc... always belive these set people apart, pm with your email if you would would like to talk to you properly about your ratings, also have good links with a company that could make you very profitable!
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im looking for ratings
for every race other than racpost sportinglife timeform can u give me others please |
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RC919 - Trust you appreciate I want to keep anonymity........and will be using ratings myself, once friend sorted "system", therefor , after spending years on this, it is myself that will be , hopefully, reaping the rewards.
Not really interested in any "arrangement"......trust you appreciate my positiion. Only started thread to counteract the other thread where someone is GIVING UP on finding the grail etc.......To provide some "hope" for those still striving to get there ================================== GKMBA - Adrian Massey used to ......don't know if still does so for PRIVATE CLIENTS .... Somebody bound to post re your request ...i hope ! Gl |
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DFC,
IMO you should be able to test your system in a faster way. You should capture the output of your system for all past races, automatically, and compare with the actual results ... after that you will be able to run different scenarios (eg. LAY horses at odds of maximum 10, in a race of "x" type, ...) and see what is the overall P/L. |