General Betting
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IS THIS THE GRAIL?
IS THIS THE GRAIL?
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DFC
How would you have fared on 15/03/09? |
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Sorry T2R ......have been side tracked with household chores
 Will post ratings for that day below... Oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooopssssssssssssssssssssssssssss I DID NOT DO RATINGS THAT DAY T2R Pick another  |
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Sod's law
 How about 29/03/09? |
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T2R ------- have you checked the old thread ....as you have picked another day I did not rate them !!
There were 5 days in MARCH 2009 I did not do ratings ....1st/2nd/3rd /15th and 29th! Pretty good you getting the only 2 days on thread where did not do em......think you are winding me up  |
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I've gotta go help with making tea......
If you can pick another in MARCH 2009.....other than the 5 days I did not do em.......the will post ratings/results up quickly so I can't juggle ratings to " c h eeee ttt" etc etc |
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Gotta go ....Bye the noooooooooooooooo
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Not wind up DFC, honest!
How about 08/03/09 then? I'm going for a power nap now so post results in your own time, there's no rush. Thanks. |
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8TH MARCH 2009 ( DAY 6)
KELSO 15:25 Novices' Handicap Chase 5yo plus 2m 6f 110y Class 3 7 runners Soft 1,Cornerback 1ST 5-1 SP 3RD FStraight Forecast: £15.18 Exacta: £19.70 2,Bow School 9-2 3,Super Baby 2ND 13-8F 4,Anglicisme 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5,Supremely Gifted 13-2 6,Waterski 3RD 12 1&3:£6.50 WITH 3RD FAV 2&3:£16.30 WITH FAV 7,Prince Mouse 9 15:55 Handicap Hurdle 4yo plus 2m 110y Class 3 7 runners Soft 1,Gringo 1ST 11-4 2ND F 2,Mohayer 9-4F 3,Bollin Ruth 9 4,Marcel 3RD 9 1&3:£5.40 WWITH 2ND FAV --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5,First Look 20 6,Ormus 2ND 100-30 1&2:£2.00 WITH 2ND FAV 7,Coconut Beach 14 16:25 Handicap Chase 4yo plus 3m 1f Class 3 5 runners Soft 1,Bold Ransom 1ST 5-2JFStraight Forecast: £6.51 Exacta: £5.30 2,Twelve Paces 2ND 7-2 3RD FAV 3,Scarvagh Diamond 7 4,Crackadee 13-2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5,More Likely 3RD 14 1&3:£48.50 WITH JOINT FAV 2&3:£15.30 WITH 3RD FAV 6,Wild Cane Ridge WD 5-2JF MARKET RASEN 15:15 Handicap Chase 5yo plus 2m 6f 110y Class 4 8 runners CHASE Crse - Sft Gd/Sft pl (2mm overnight rain) 1,Sycho Fred 2ND 11-4FStraight Forecast: £16.32 Tricast: £120.46 Exacta: £17.50 2,It's Like That 1ST 4-1 2ND F 3,Iloveturtle 22 4,Cardington 15-2 5,Day du Roy 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 6,Pass The Class 9-2 7,Keen Warrior 3RD 12-1 1&3:£15.90 WITH 2ND FAV 8,Thistlecraft 9-2 9,Sir Brastias N/R 15:45 Novices' Handicap Chase 5yo plus 2m 4f Class 5 11 runners Chse Crse - Sft Gd/Sft pl (2mm overnight rain) 1,Paradise Expected 2ND 8-11FStraight Forecast: £11.76 Tricast: £151.47 Exacta: £15.20 2,Feeling Peckish 20 3,Toulouse Express 1ST 13-2 2ND F 4,Matinee Idol 40 5,Devils River 11 6,Diarius 10 ----------------------------------------------------------------NON-QUALIFYING RACE FOR BACKING - ONLY LAY RACE 7,Island Key 3RD 33-1 1&3:£25.10 WITH 2ND FAV 2&3:£12.10 WITH FAV 8,Knock Boy 14 9,Illogical Hope 40 10,Something Gold 14 11,Supreme Leisure 22 16:15 Handicap Hurdle 4yo plus 3m Class 3 12 runners Hdles Crse - Gd/Sft Gd pl (2mm overnight rain) 1,Ballycarney 5-2F 2,Minella Boys 7-2 3,Walamo N/R 4,Oniz Tiptoes 33 5,Go Amwell 2ND 20-1 SPSwingers:1&2:£83.00, 2&3:£15.30, 1&3:£48.50 6,Bobby Gee 4 7,Dusky Lord 15-2 8,Pelo Du Bief 3RD 11-1 -----------------------------------------------------------------NON-QUALIFYING LAY RACE 9,Caramia 33 10,Magical Legend 1ST 33-1 SP 11,Jayne's Crusader 25 12,Imtihan 10 13,McEldowney 50 17:15 Handicap Chase 5yo plus 2m 2f Class 4 5 runners Chse Crse - Sft Gd/Sft pl (2mm overnight rain) 1,Laharna 11-8F 2,Glimmer of Light 1ST 3-1sp 3RD F 3,Russian Invader N/R 4,Peak Seasons 3RD 14 1&3:£3.90 WITH 3RD FAV 2&3:£1.10 WITH 2ND FAV ----------------------------------------------------------- 5,Uptown Lad 14 6,Imminent Victory 2ND 5-2 7,Crystal Prince N/R WARWICK 15:35 Handicap Chase 5yo plus 2m 4f 110y Class 4 5 runners Good to Soft Good IP 1,Nelson 1ST 15-8 2,Major Euro 2ND 9-2 SWINGER N/A 3,Devil's Creek 15-8F ------------------------------------------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £10.27 Exacta: £8.40 4,Incorporation 3RD 13-2 5,Arceye 14 16:35 Handicap Chase 5yo plus 3m 5f Class 3 6 runners Good to Soft Good IP MISSED RACE DUE TO GETTING SIDE TRACKED! 1,Sea Eagle 12 2,The Gangerman 3RD 6 3,Minella Four Star 7-2 4,Woodlands Genpower N/R 5,Keenan's Future 1ST 7-2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6,Gaora Lane 2ND 9-4F 7,Durante 15-2 =========================================================================================== IGNORE ALL THE C RA P RE NON-QUALIFYING RACES ETC WILL POST RESULT OF CHECK ON THE "NEW IDEA2 STRATEGY AFTER TEA..... |
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Easy to check that one ....as only 2 races with 10 runners....and no "qualifying" favs/JFS/CFS below line or ranked above the line that are at value odds up to the 3rd top rated.....etc
NO PROFIT....NO LOSS on STRAT that day T2R t |
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For the original STRATEGY re LAYING the one above lowest odds one that RANKED as VALUE.....only 1 selection in the 2 races
4.15 Imtihan and it did not win or place |
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Oooooooooopssssssssssssssssssss it was 10-1 SP ....so that would not have been lay...
Bobby Gee would be the LAY ...at 4-1 SP ...did not win or place. |
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Right ...better go nowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww
Bye the noooooooooooooooooo |
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Please note that there was an ERROR in spreadsheet that was repeated on doing calculations on the BACK TO LAY FAVS/JFS/CFS below the line or above line( up to 4th top rated) where odds were value to lay.....
Figures now are PROFIT COMMISSION NET PROFIT 525.38 -161.269 ....364.11 I knew figures were too good to be true ! Sorry for misleading post! |
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In that day above, I notice there was another Fave classed as below the line, and he would have been a successful lay! Also, there was a Joint Fave who was under the line in another of those races that day, and he was also a good lay. This Bobbin System rocks, I reckon...
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Such a ROI is a strong indicator that there IS AN "EDGE" re using the system this way.
DFC, The ROI is not so important ... ~ 25% ROI might look impressive as an "absolute" value but what is most important is the edge. It is clear that if the ROI is positive then you have an edge ... but the question is how big is your edge in percentage? I'll try to calculate it even if I won't be 100% precise (I don't have all your bets/odds/result) ... 1. "BTW - out of the 48 selections......only 13 won.......Strike-rate 27.08% This is why STRATEGY works over the 9 days...." [i]2. "...approximately £1,100 PROFIT after commission at 5% using BACK stakes of £100." Strike-rate 27.08% ... ROI ~22% I calculate an average odds for the 48 bets = 4.50 (you can confirm this) ... so your Edge is (4.50*27 - 73)/4.50 = 121.5-73/4.50 = ~10.7% This is a comfortable edge ... if it is confirmed after many more bets ... I'd say at least 200 or even more. |
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In a 12 runner race....if a horse is RANKED top rated ...and the SP odds are 5-8FAV.......would you consider this a VALUE BACK to LAY bet?
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It was 1.06 at BF SP....
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Currently checking applying similar STRATEGY re BACK to LAY any FAV/JF/CF in top 3 rated that is at VALUE odds considering its' RANKING.......
There were 6 races that had 10 runners, and had a "qualifying" fav/jf/cf in top 3, that were rated on 15 JULY 2008.....and applying same BACK to LAY strategy the following figs obtained ... PROFIT COMMISSION 406.52 -25.326 As "expected" the system should do better with this BACK to LAY strategy than the other one......as it was devised to get winners at good odds ......and not to LAY horses.... |
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LB ROCKSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
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Well I know 3 days doesn't a swallow make but....
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I did a check on how the three top rated fared re a few days in JULY 2008.......and am currently checking out how applying the "new" STRATEGY would work out in races where 10 runners etc
This was the original check NO TOP TOP 2ND TOP 3RD TOP RUNNERS RANK RANK RANK RANK RANK RANK POSITION SP ODDS POSITION SP ODDS POSITION SP ODDS 16.07.08 2.1 12 3 5-2 2 8-1 1 6-4F 2.2 10 3 15-8 2 5-4F X 11-2 2.3 8 1 5-2 2 6-4F X 8-1 2.4 15 4 16-1 X 9-1 X 16-1 2.5 11 X 12-1 X 12-1 X 6-1 3 12 X 9-1 X 40-1 X 12-1 3.1 16 3 17-2 2 9-1 X 11-2 3.2 6 1 2-1F X 5-1 3.3 7 X 3-1 2 15-2 3.4 16 1 10-1 X 11-2 3 12-1 3.5 8 2 7-4JF 3 7-4JF X 9-1 4 11 X 11-2 X 14-1 X 14-1 4.1 8 1 8-11F 3 8-1 X 5-1 4.2 5 1 4-6F X 4-1 4.3 11 X 12-1 1 4-1 X 14-1 4.4 14 X 3-1 1 10-1 2 7-4F 4.5 12 3 7-2JF X 8-1 X 8-1 5 10 X 9-1 1 10-1 X 25-1 17.07.08 2 12 X 25-1 3 20-1 2 4-1 2.1 10 X 13-8F X 15-2 X 33-1 2.2 5 1 3-1 X 2-1 2 7-4 2.3 13 X 16-1 X 40-1 X 22-1 2.4 6 3 EVENSF 2 12-1 2.5 6 X 3-1JF 2 3-1JF 3.05 12 X 25-1 X 7-2 1 11-1 3.15 13 2 7-1 X 16-1 X 40-1 3.25 8 X 11-4JF 2 7-1 1 11-4JF 3.4 10 X 11-2 3 33-1 X 6-4F 3.5 4 X 7-2 1 8-11F 4 7 2 15-8 1 6-4F 4.15 8 X 25-1 2 10-1 1 11-4 4.25 14 1 9-4 X 16-1 X 15-8F 4.35 9 X 8-1 X 4-1 X 6-1 4.5 12 1 6-5F X 100-1 X 150-1 5 12 X 11-2 X 7-2 3 12-1 5.1 11 1 9-2F 3 15-2 2 6-1 5.2 6 X 5-2 2 33-1 5.3 17 X 6-1 X 8-1 X 14-1 18.07.08 1.3 18 X 16-1 X 40-1 X 5-2F 2 13 1 13-8F X 11-4 2 20-1 2.15 15 X 14-1 4 10-1 3 3-1F 2.25 15 3 15-2 X 25-1 X 20-1 2.35 13 X 18-1 3 11-2 X 50-1 2.45 12 X 28-1 1 7-4 2 6-4F 2.55 9 1 5-2 X 16-1 2 5-1 3.05 11 X 20-1 X 20-1 X 10-1 3.2 8 2 4-1 3 2-1F X 14-1 3.3 7 1 1-2F X 20-1 2 11-1 3.4 8 2 4-6F X 10-1 X 11-4 3.5 14 X 16-1 1 8-13F 2 4-1 4 13 X 16-1 X 11-4F X 33-1 4.1 11 X 25-1 X 25-1 2 7-1 4.2 7 2 9-4F 3 5-2 1 7-2 4.3 7 2 7-2 X 15-8F 4.4 8 X 33-1 X 9-1 X 8-1 4.5 11 2 7-2F 1 4-1 X 20-1 5 13 X 6-4F X 80-1 X 66-1 5.45 17 X 8-1 1 16-1 X 12-1 6.15 15 X 11-2 X 8-1 X 16-1 6.35 14 X 33-1 X 33-1 X 100-30 6.45 8 X 16-1 X 7-1 1 8-11F 7.05 9 X 9-1 X 9-2 3 10-1 7.15 7 2 11-2 1 4-1 X 8-11F 7.35 15 X 8-1 X 20-1 X 18-1 7.5 9 X 7-1 3 6-1 X 8-1 8.1 15 X 4-1 X 14-1 X 20-1 8.2 14 X 6-1 X 50-1 X 20-1 8.4 11 4 3-1 X 10-1 1 40-1 8.5 19 4 16-1 X 3-1F X 17-2 9.1 15 X 10-1 X 8-1 X 7-1 Ones marked in BOLD are what might be considered as VALUE BACKS to LAY. 19.07.08 1.3 11 3 9-1 X 13-2 X 4-1 1.5 7 1 9-1 3 7-4F X 13-2 2 9 1 1-2F X 8-1 X 16-1 2.05 16 2 4-1F 1 7-1 4 25-1 2.2 12 2 6-4F X 10-1 X 12-1 2.3 12 X 40-1 X 25-1 X 12-1 2.35 10 X 50-1 1 5-2JF X 9-2 2.4 12 1 11-4F X 16-1 2 2.5 10 X 3-1F 1 7-2 X 10-1 3 16 X 11-4F X 20-1 1 4-1 3.05 8 1 6-1 2 5-2F X 100-30 3.1 6 1 9-1 X 15-8F 2 4-1 3.25 23 X 16-1 3 12-1 X 15-2 3.3 10 1 12-1 3 14-1 X 5-1 3.35 9 X 13-2 3 2-1F X 10-1 3.4 16 X 100-30F X 40-1 3 5-1 3.55 16 X 16-1 1 9-2 3 16-1 4 6 X 9-2 2 9-2 4.1 13 X 9-2 X 12-1 2 3-1F 4.15 10 1 9-2 X 12-1 3 9-4 4.3 11 X 14-1 X 20-1 2 5-4F 4.35 11 X 9-1 1 5-1 X 10-1 4.45 9 X 12-1 3 11-4 2 11-1 4.5 8 X 7-1 3 9-2 1 11-4F 5 11 X 10-1 X 14-1 3 13-2 5.05 20 X 6-1 X 16-1 X 16-1 5.15 13 X 7-2F X 12-1 X 33-1 5.25 7 2 6-4F X 4-1 X 10-1 21.07.08 (Missed out BEVERLEY RACES) 2.15 7 X 3-1 X 80-1 2.3 8 X 14-1 1 15-8JF 2 11-2 2.45 14 X 3-1JF X 22-1 4 14-1 3 6 X 7-2 1 3-1 3.15 5 X 10-1 2 5-1 3.3 8 X 12-1 2 15-2 X 15-8F 3.45 8 X 14-1 X 10-1 X 10-1 4 12 3 11-2 2 16-1 X 7-1 4.15 10 X 7-1 X 13-2 X 17-2 4.3 16 X 13-2 3 6-1F X 17-2 4.45 11 X 10-1 2 9-2 X 10-1 5 10 3 7-4F 1 7-1 X 4-1 5.15 12 X 7-1 X 16-1 3 4-1F 5.3 7 2 2-1F 3 8-1 6.2 13 2 2-1F X 9-1 X 8-1 6.5 11 3 9-1 X 9-1 X 16-1 7.2 16 X 11-4F X 14-1 X 33-1 7.5 13 2 15-2 X 20-1 X 10-1 8.2 11 X 16-1 X 8-1 X 8-1 8.5 13 X 10-1 3 11-4F 2 7-2 22.07.08 2.15 4 1 1-3F 2 9-1 2.3 12 X 4-1F X 10-1 X 7-1 2.45 8 X 7-1 2 10-1 X 33-1 3 14 3 14-1 X 100-1 X 80-1 3.15 8 1 4-5F 2 7-2 X 18-1 3.35 13 X 8-1 2 14-1 X 16-1 3.5 10 2 13-2 3 11-2 X 6-1 4.05 10 X 14-1 1 7-2F X 7-1 4.2 4 X 4-1 1 1-4F 4.4 15 1 9-2 X 5-2F X 3-1 4.55 12 3 8-1 1 7-2 X 18-1 5.1 15 X 12-1 2 4-1 X 40-1 5.25 15 2 12-1 3 3-1F X 5-1 6 10 3 5-1 X 22-1 1 11-4F 6.2 10 X 10-1 X 11-4JF X 20-1 6.3 11 1 13-2 X 25-1 X 16-1 6.5 12 1 7-2 X 22-1 2 16-1 7 4 1 4-7F X 22-1 7.2 7 1 2-5F X 3-1 X 25-1 7.3 10 3 4-1 1 5-6F 2 9-1 7.5 7 2 8-1 X 5-1 X 33-1 8 8 1 5-2 X 11-4 X 9-1 8.2 7 2 9-4 1 15-8F 3 7-2 8.3 10 1 8-15F X 16-1 X 12-1 8.5 9 2 2-1F 3 5-2 X 8-1 9 17 X 7-1 2 15-2 X 20-1 23.07.08 2 13 3 11-8F 1 9-4 X 25-1 2.1 12 1 2-1F X 10-1 X 4-1 2.2 10 X 9-2 2 6-4F X 8-1 2.3 7 X 9-1 X 8-1 1 3-1 2.4 9 X 100-1 2 9-2 X 66-1 2.5 9 2 5-6F 3 7-1 X 10-1 3 11 1 7-2JF X 6-1 X 9-2 3.1 8 1 5-2CF 3 16-1 2 5-2CF 3.2 8 2 8-1 X 16-1 X 4-1 3.3 8 1 8-1 X 5-1 3 8-1 3.4 12 1 3-1JF X 10-1 X 25-1 3.5 9 2 6-4F X 14-1 3 9-2 4 14 X 9-1 1 9-2 X 16-1 4.1 12 3 4-1F X 22-1 X 50-1 4.2 11 X 10-1 X 11-2 X 8-1 4.3 12 X 11-2 X 12-1 X 10-1 4.4 12 X 15-2 3 8-1 X 14-1 4.5 11 1 3-1 X 11-4F X 40-1 5 10 X 9-1 3 7-1 1 4-1CF 5.2 9 X 5-2JF X 40-1 X 8-1 6.05 10 2 11-2 X 16-1 X 14-1 6.15 13 X 12-1 X 15-2 1 9-4F 6.35 7 X 3-1 1 2-1 6.45 5 1 5-6F X 10-1 7.1 8 2 8-13F 3 12-1 X 10-1 7.2 14 X 20-1 X 12-1 X 25-1 7.4 7 X 4-7F 2 11-1 X 7-1 7.5 9 X 9-1 X 14-1 X 20-1 8.15 11 X 8-1 1 4-1F X 6-1 8.25 13 X 8-1 X 20-1 2 9-1 8.45 7 X 4-1 X 12-1 X 4-1 8.55 12 X 11-2 1 6-4F X 16-1 24.07.08 2 11 X 100-1 3 100-30 X 50-1 2.1 6 1 12-1 X 10-1 2.2 13 X 100-1 1 8-13F X 100-1 2.35 10 2 9-2 1 11-4 X 5-2F 2.45 7 2 6-5F X 13-1 3 33-1 2.55 12 1 5-2F X 50-1 X 12-1 3.1 16 X 9-2 3 16-1 X 40-1 3.2 8 1 6-4F X 10-1 3 7-1 3.3 3 2N/A 2-5F X 16-1 3.45 12 X 16-1 X 11-2 3 6-1 3.55 16 X 5-1 1 11-8F X 14-1 4.05 14 X 4-1 X 14-1 X 14-1 4.2 9 X 9-1 3 14-1 2 13-8F 4.3 7 X 11-10F 2 11-8 4.4 8 3 12-1 1 5-2F X 3-1 4.5 16 X 25-1 X 14-1 X 8-1 5 7 2 11-8F X 9-1 X 9-1 5.1 12 X 6-1 X 9-1 3 17-2 6 5 1 4-7F X 3-1 6.1 13 X 8-1 1 3-1F X 33-1 6.2 14 1 9-2 x 100-30f 2 8-1 6.3 12 1 4-6F X 8-1 X 16-1 6.4 10 1 9-4F 2 16-1 X 33-1 6.5 11 x 3-1 3 7-1 x 7-1 7.05 4 X 5-1 1 7-4 7.15 11 X 4-1 X 8-1 X 25-1 7.25 9 X 28-1 1 5-1 X 11-1 7.35 8 X 12-1 X 8-1 2 2-1 7.45 14 3 16-1 1 3-1JF X 3-1JF 7.55 4 2 5-6F X 7-4 8.1 12 X 20-1 1 2-1F X 11-4 8.2 13 2 9-1 1 4-1 3 16-1 8.3 8 X 8-1 X 18-1 X 9-4F 8.4 11 X 16-1 X 7-2 X 9-2 8.5 11 X 16-1 1 9-2 3 6-1 9 12 3 3-1F X 7-1 1 7-2 9.2 8 X 14-1 1 6-4F X 22-1 |
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AGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH missed out putting in BOLD the ones after I typed the bit about BOLD etc .....
Can't be bothered to re-post this .....but you get the gist of post ! |
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OK have checked applying similar STRATEGY etc re races rated in JULY 2008 that have a minimum number of runners of 10.....and produces
TOTAL TOTAL PROFIT COMMISSION 2377.27 -233.8635 From 59 bets.....and where there were 24 WINNING selections amongst them ! ROI 36.32% Must be something wrong with the workings on this ....but not spotted it yet |
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Obviously there a great deal more FAVOURITES win in JULY than in most other months.....and possibly explains why figures are so "good".
Figures appear to be correctly calculated.......therefore SO FAR so "good"! |
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Anybody know what the WORST month for favourites winning is ?
Possibly JAN or FEB?????? |
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Last figures were over 9 days .....in JULY 2008.....with £100 STAKE per selection being basis of calculating results.
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Well it surely depends whether on you're talking about Flat racing or Jumps DFC. As far as the Flat racing season goes, according to Adrian Massey's records, year after year July was the best month for favourites, so that backs up your theory. April was the worst month, which makes sense as you'll get a lot of new and lightly raced high quality horses coming in who cause surprises. By July, the good horses are still racing hard but the form is fairly well established, which is why the faves are apparently easier to rely on. Maybe from August onwards the season starts to wind down, and some of the best horses are also getting a little tired or lacking motivation, so things get slightly more unpredictable.
Going on the same logic, wouldn't you expect October/November to be the worst months for Jumps favourites? By February/March the form would be well established and the bad weather would be clearing away as well, which might make things more predictable. |
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The races rated were the following types....a bit of a mixture....only applying STRATEGY BACK to LAY on min 10 runner races though ...SO FAR...
15.07.08 Claiming Stakes(Class 5) (3yo) 7½f Good 2.15 10 Median Auction Maiden Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 6f Good To Firm 2.3 4 Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 7½f Good 2.45 12 Handicap(Class 5) (3yo+) 6f Good To Firm 3 12 Maiden Auction Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 5f Good 3.15 11 Selling Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) 7f Good To Firm 3.3 15 Handicap (Class 4) ( 3yo+) 2m Good 3.45 12 Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) (7f214y) 1m Good To Firm 4 14 Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) 5f Good 4.15 16 Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) ) 1m2f Good To Firm 4.3 11 Lady Riders Handicap (Class 6) ( 3yo+) 1m2f Good 4.45 16 Apprentice Handicap(Class 6) ( 4yo+) ) 1m4f Good To Firm 5 10 Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) (1m100y) Good 5.15 10 Claiming Stakes(Class 6) (3yo) 6f Standard 6.1 8 Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 6.2 11 Median Auction Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3-5yo) 1m6f Standard 6.4 6 Selling Nursery(Class 6) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 6.5 11 Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 6f Standard 7.1 10 Handicap(Class 5) 3yo+) 5f Good To Firm 7.2 10 Conditions Stakes(Class 3) (3yo+) 6f Standard 7.4 8 Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m1f Good To Firm 7.5 6 Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo+) 1m Standard 8.1 8 Claiming Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) 1m2f Good To Firm 8.2 8 Handicap(Class 5) (3yo) 1m Standard 8.4 12 Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m6f Good To Firm 8.5 8 NO RUNNERS 16.07.08 Novices´ Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m Good To Firm 2.1 12 Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3-4yo) 1m1f Good To Firm 2.2 10 Novice Auction Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 2.3 8 Novices´ Handicap Chase(Class 5) (4yo+) 3m Good To Firm 2.4 15 Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 1m2f Good To Firm 2.5 11 Selling Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) 6f Good To Firm 3 12 Selling Hurdle(Class 5) (4yo+) 2m Good To Firm 3.1 16 Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 2m Good To Firm 3.2 6 Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo) 5f Good To Firm 3.3 7 Handicap Hurdle(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 3m Good To Firm 3.4 16 Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 6f Standard 3.5 8 Claiming Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) 1m4f Good To Firm 4 11 Handicap Chase(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m5f Good To Firm 4.1 8 Classified Stakes(Class 3) ( 3yo+) 1m Standard 4.2 5 Median Auction Maiden Stakes(Class 6) (3yo) 7f Good To Firm 4.3 11 Maiden Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m4½f Good To Firm 4.4 14 Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 6f Standard 4.5 12 Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 1m4f Good To Firm 5 10 17.07.08 Novices´ Handicap Hurdle(Class 5) ( 4yo+) (2m1½f Good 2 12 Nursery(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good 2.1 10 Maiden Auction Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 5f Good 2.2 5 Handicap Hurdle(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m6f Good 2.3 13 Selling Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 5f Good 2.4 6 Claiming Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) 5f Good 2.5 6 Handicap Chase(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 3m2f Good 3.05 12 Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 7f Good 3.15 13 Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 1m½f Good 3.25 8 Beginners´ Chase(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m1½f Good 3.4 10 Conditions Stakes(Class 3) (3yo) 1m2f Good 3.5 4 Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3yo+) 1m3f Good 4 7 Handicap Chase(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 2m1½f Good 4.15 8 Claiming Stakes(Class 5) (4yo+) 1m4f Good 4.25 14 Stakes (Handicap)(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 6f Good 4.35 9 Maiden Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m1½f Good To Soft 4.5 12 Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3-4yo) 1m2f Good 5 12 Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) 6f Good 5.1 11 Novices´ Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m6f Good To Soft 5.2 6 Apprentice Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 6f Good 5.3 17 18.07.08 Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good 1.3 18 Maiden Stakes (Div I)(Class 4) (2yo) 7f Good 2 13 Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 6f Good 2.15 15 Conditional Jockeys´ Handicap Chase(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m5½f Gd To Firm 2.25 15 Maiden Stakes (Div II)(Class 4) (2yo) 7f Good 2.35 13 Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 6f Good 2.45 12 Maiden Chase(Class 4) (5yo+) 3m2f Good To Firm 1 2.55 9 Fillies´ Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 1m2f Good 3.05 11 Selling Stakes(Class 6) (3yo) 1m2f Good 3.2 8 Handicap Chase(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m1f Good To Firm 3.3 7 Conditions Stakes(Class 3) (3yo) 7f Good 3.4 8 Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 5) (3yo) 1m2f Good 3.5 14 Novices´ Selling Hurdle(Class 5) (4yo+)) 2m5½f Good To Firm 4 13 Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) ( 5f Good 4.1 11 Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 1m½f Good 4.2 7 Handicap Hurdle(Class 3) ( 4yo+) 2m1f Good To Firm 4.3 7 Apprentice Handicap(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 1m3f Good 4.4 8 Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) 1m½f Good 4.5 11 Handicap Hurdle(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 3m2f Good To Firm 5 13 Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m2f Good To Firm 5.45 17 Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 6.15 15 Maiden Auction Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good 6.35 14 Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo) 7f Good To Firm 6.45 8 Fillies´ Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m4f Good 7.05 9 Conditions Stakes(Class 3) (3yo+) 5f Good To Firm 7.15 7 Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo+) 5f Good 7.35 15 Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo) 1m2f Good To Firm 7.5 9 Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m Good 8.1 15 Maiden Stakes(Class 4) (3yo) 1m Good To Firm 8.2 14 Maiden Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m2f Good 8.4 11 Handicap(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 1m Good To Firm 8.5 19 Handicap(Class 5) (3yo+) 6f Good 9.1 15 19.07.08 Maiden Stakes (Div I)(Class 4) (3yo) 7f Good To Firm 1.3 11 Conditions Stakes(Class 3) (2yo) 7f Good 1.5 7 Maiden Stakes (Div II)(Class 4) (3yo) 7f Good To Firm 2 9 Hurdle Handicap (Listed Race)(Class 1) ( 4yo+) 2m1½f Soft 2.05 16 Stakes (Group 3)(Class 1) (3yo+) 6f Good 2.2 12 Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 5f Good 2.3 12 Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares)(Class 1) (3yo+) 1m4f Good To Firm 2.35 10 Juvenile Novices´ Hurdle(Class 3) (3yo) 2m1½f Soft 2.4 12 Fillies´ Stakes (Handicap)(Class 2) ( 3yo+) 1m Good 2.5 10 Selling Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 6f Good 3 16 Handicap(Class 2) ( 3yo) 1m Good To Firm 3.05 8 Handicap Hurdle(Class 2) ( 4yo+) 2m6f Soft 3.1 6 Stakes(Class 2) (2yo) 5f Good 3.25 23 Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 1m2f Good 3.3 10 Fillies´ Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo+) 6f Good To Firm 3.35 9 Handicap Chase (Listed Race)(Class 1) ( 4yo+) 2m6½f Soft 3.4 16 Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo+) 1m2f Good 3.55 16 Handicap(Class 2) ( 3yo) 1m4f Good 4 6 Maiden Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good To Firm 4.1 13 Novices´ Hurdle Series (Qualifier)(Class 3) (4yo+) 2m1½f Soft 4.15 10 Stakes (Listed Race)(Class 1) (3yo+) 1m2f Good 4.3 11 Handicap(Class 4) 3yo+) 1m Good 4.35 11 Handicap(Class 4) ( 4yo+) ( 1m7f Good To Firm 4.45 9 Novices´ Handicap Chase(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m6½f Soft 4.5 8 Handicap(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m Good 5 11 Maiden Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 6f Good 5.05 20 Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo+) 5f Good To Firm 5.15 13 Handicap Chase(Class 3) ( 4yo+) 2m2f Soft 5.25 7 21.07.08 (Missed out BEVERLEY RACES) Median Auction Maiden Stakes(Class 6) (3-4yo) 1m1f Good To Firm 2.15 7 Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 6f Good 2.3 8 Median Auction Maiden Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 2.45 14 Maiden Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good 3 6 Selling Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 6f Good To Firm 3.15 5 Handicap(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 1m5f Good 3.3 8 Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 6f Good To Firm 3.45 8 Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 6f Good 4 12 Fillies´ Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) 1m3½f Good To Firm 4.15 10 Stakes (Heritage Handicap)(Class 2) (3yo+) 5f Good 4.3 16 Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 1m2f Good To Firm 4.45 11 Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 1m Good 5 10 Apprentice Riders´ Handicap(Class 6) ( 4yo+) 1m2f Good To Firm 5.15 12 Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 5f Good 5.3 7 Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3-4yo) 1m2f Good To Firm 6.2 13 Selling Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) () 1m3½f Good To Firm 6.5 11 Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good To Firm 7.2 16 Handicap(Class 4) (3yo) 6f Good To Firm 7.5 13 Fillies´ Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 1m½f Good To Firm 8.2 11 Handicap(Class 5) 3yo+) 1m2f Good To Firm 8.5 13 Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m½f Good To Firm 22.07.08 Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 5f Good To Firm 2.15 4 Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) 5f Good To Firm 2.3 12 Selling Stakes(Class 6) (3yo) 1m2f Good To Firm 2.45 8 Maiden Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good To Firm 3 14 Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 1m3½f Good To Firm 3.15 8 Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) 1m4f Good To Firm 3.35 13 Fillies´ Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m Good To Firm 3.5 10 Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 1m2f Good To Firm 4.05 10 Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3-4yo) 7f Good To Firm 4.2 4 Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 4) (3yo+) 7f Good To Firm 4.4 15 Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 7f Good To Firm 4.55 12 Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 1m Good To Firm 5.1 15 Handicap(Class 6) ( 4yo+) 5f Good To Firm 5.25 15 Mares Only Novices´ Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m4f Good To Firm 6 10 Apprentice Handicap(Class 6) ( 4yo+) 1m2f Standard 6.2 10 Conditional Jockeys´ Handicap Hurdle(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m4f Good To Firm 6.3 11 Handicap(Class 5) 3yo+) 1m Standard 6.5 12 Novices´ Chase(Class 4) (5yo+) 2m4½f Good To Firm 7 4 Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo+) 1m Standard 7.2 7 Novices´ Hurdle (Series Qualifier)(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m1f Good To Firm 7.3 10 Maiden Auction Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 5f Standard 7.5 7 Handicap Chase(Class 3) ( 4yo+) 2m4½f Good To Firm 8 8 Claiming Stakes(Class 6) (3yo) 6f Standard 8.2 7 Handicap Chase(Class 4) 4yo+) 2m1½f Good To Firm 8.3 10 Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 5f Standard 8.5 9 Handicap Hurdle(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 2m4f Good To Firm 9 17 23.07.08 Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3yo+) 1m4f Standard 2 13 mateur Riders´ Handicap Hurdle(Class 6) ( 4yo+) 3m Good To Firm 2.1 12 Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) ) 6f Good To Firm 2.2 10 Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 1m4f Standard 2.3 7 Novices´ Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m4f Good To Firm 2.4 9 Selling Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 2.5 9 Median Auction Maiden Stakes (Div I)(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Standard 3 11 Novices´ Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m Good To Firm 3.1 8 Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 5f Good To Firm 3.2 8 Median Auction Maiden Stakes (Div II)(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Standard 3.3 8 Handicap Chase(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m7f Good To Firm 3.4 12 Nursery(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 3.5 9 Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 7f Standard 4 14 Handicap Hurdle(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 2m Good To Firm 4.1 12 Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) 6f Good To Firm 4.2 11 Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 6f Standard 4.3 12 Handicap Hurdle(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m4f Good To Firm 4.4 12 Claiming Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) 5f Good To Firm 4.5 11 Fillies´ Handicap(Class 6) (3yo+) 5f Standard 5 10 Apprentice Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) 1m4f Good To Firm 5.2 9 Apprentice Handicap(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 1m2f Good To Firm 6.05 10 Maiden Auction Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 6.15 13 Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 1m Good To Firm 6.35 7 Nursery(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good To Firm 6.45 5 Maiden Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 7.1 8 Selling Stakes(Class 6) (3yo) 1m½f Good To Firm 7.2 14 Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo) 7f Good To Firm 7.4 7 Handicap(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 1m4f Good To Firm 7.5 9 Handicap(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 5f Good To Firm 8.15 11 Fillies´ Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo) 7f Good To Firm 8.25 13 Handicap(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 1m6f Good To Firm 8.45 7 Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3yo+) 6f Good To Firm 8.55 12 24.07.08 Novices´ Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m6½f Good To Firm 2 11 Maiden Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 5f Good To Firm 2.1 6 Median Auction Maiden Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 5½f Firm 2.2 13 Novices´ Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m6½f Good To Firm 2.35 10 Handicap(Class 4) 3yo) 5f Good To Firm 2.45 7 Selling Stakes(Class 6) (4yo+) 1m2f Firm 2.55 12 Novices´ Selling Hurdle(Class 5) (4yo+) 2m4½f Good To Firm 3.1 16 Stakes (Listed Race)(Class 1) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 3.2 8 Novice Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 5f Firm 3.3 3 Handicap Hurdle(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m6½f Good To Firm 3.45 12 Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3-4yo) 1m Good To Firm 3.55 16 Claiming Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) 5f Firm 4.05 14 Handicap Chase(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m Good To Firm 4.2 9 Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo+) 1m2f Good To Firm 4.3 7 Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 5f Firm 4.4 8 Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race(Class 6) (4-6yo) 2m 4.5 16 Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo) 1m6f Good To Firm 5 7 Fillies´ Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 1m2f Firm 5.1 12 Apprentice Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 6f Good To Firm 6 5 Median Auction Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Standard 6.1 13 Handicap(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 6f Good To Firm 6.2 14 Handicap(Class 6) (3yo) 1m4f Good To Firm 6.3 12 Nursery(Class 4) (2yo) 7f Standard 6.4 10 Maiden Auction Fillies´ Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 6.5 11 Handicap(Class 4) 3yo) 1m1½f Good To Firm 7.05 4 Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 6f Standard 7.15 11 Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo) 6f Good To Firm 7.25 9 Selling Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) 6f Good To Firm 7.35 8 Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 4) (3yo+) 1m4f Standard 7.45 14 Conditions Stakes(Class 3) (4yo+) 1m Good To Firm 7.55 4 Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 8.1 12 Handicap(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 1m4f Standard 8.2 13 Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m4f Good To Firm 8.3 8 Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 7f Good To Firm 8.4 11 Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 1m3f Standard 8.5 11 Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) ( 1m2½f Good To Firm 9 12 Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 7f Standard 9.2 8 |
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AW /NH and TURF....................all of em in there
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Instead of BACKING and LAYING IR STRATEGY above.....just backing the 59 selections to WIN, without laying IR gives the following PROFIT and COMMISSION thereon :-
PROFIT COMMISSION 3481 -349.05 ROI = 53% May well be a "fluke" result due to in that 9 days there were many winners ( 24 from 59 selections). |
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Just after completing a check on BACKING to WIN the VALUE horses above the line in the period from 15.07.08 to 24.07.08 when rated races on 9 days. 8 good odds winners would have been obtained.....and profit figures etc were -
13150.4 NET PROFIT , after commission at 5%, from 329 bets.......at £100 stakes per selection... ROI 39.96 % So the system performed "well" both with getting HIGH ODDS winners in upper part of field size , as well as doing well re FAVs,JFS,and CFS winning. The STRATEGY applied to the JULY 2008 period for figures above was based on analysis work previously carried out on APRIL and MAY 2008 that I know worked when applied to those races. Bets were not restricted to 10 runner races only for above JULY 2008 profit figures.....every race rated had STRATEGY applied to it. 242 races where STRATEGY applied to. |
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The check above was on races ABOVE THE LINE where odds met certain criteria.......so decided to check what result would be for same races if used horses BELOW LINE that met same odds criteria....and the result was-
-12949.95 NET LOSS AFTER COMMISSION There would have been 333 bets on selections over 242 races in the 9 days checked in JULY 2008. There were the same number of winners BELOW THE LINE as ABOVE THE LINE ...... The above difference between ABOVE THE LINE and BELOW THE LINE indicates that the system did its job in getting good odds horses that had a chance to win ABOVE THE LINE! In effect the "EDGE" is the system......................and betting where odds are "VALUE". |
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I knew there was something WRONG re NUMBER of WINNERS ABOVE LINE and BELOW LINE........Error due to me extending figs re WINNERS into wrong column etc etc
There were 16 WINNERS at good odds( meeting criteria for this STRATEGY) ABOVE THE LINE and only 8 BELOW the LINE! So the system had did it job of "finding" high odds winners in upper part of RATINGS..... |
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Now checked APRIL 2008 rated races applying a STRATEGY backing horses meeting certain criteria from those ABOVE THE LINE and following results indicated using £100 stakes for each selection :-
NET PROFIT AFTER COMMISSION £ 33,524.15 NUMBER SELECTIONS 1,167 ROI 28.72% NUMBER DAYS RATED 26 So STRATEGY still "working" well on races checked SO FAR. |
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Getting "bored" checking the STRATEGIES on previously rated races, as all they do is indicate PROFITS can be made on attacking FAVS and 2nd FAVS in BACK and LAY markets re WIN/PLACE.
The main reason the STRATEGIES "work", or "appear to work", is that the system ratings generally gets winners in the top 50% + 1 of field size as well as about 68% of high odds ones rated there too that place/win. As my "obsession" has been at getting STRATEGIES re BACKING higher odds ones using the ratings etc ( have got them too!), then I just never wanted to check out STRATEGIES re FAVOURITES........re BACKING, as I wanted the system to get good odds winners in top rated etc......and if the system did that, then the system should then enable STRATEGIES for FAVOURITES ....in due course. Just wish I had not been so "obsessed" re the HIGHER ODDS ones, as this has delayed me checking out STRATEGIES on SHORT ODDS ones ! If my mindset was like a LAYER, then of course would have checked out FAVOURITES STRATEGIES earlier. It appears it should be possible to achieve at least 10 points a day profit after commission from STRATEGIES for FAVOURITES/2nd FAVS, and that was always my target in devising the system......but just wanted it to be gained on the HIGHER ODDS ones. The liquidity is far better on SHORT ODDS ones .........so initially i will just exploit STRATEGIES on them ! Having "discovered" just how well the system does on attacking the low odds ones, as well as higher odds ones, then all I need to do now is get enough energy up to start using STRATEGIES and SYSTEM again ! As I still have umpteen "things to do" , other than betting, between now and Christmas.......it is likely I won't be in a position to fully concentrate on using the SYSTEM etc until I have resolved the other matters. Could do with time away from horse racing stats anyway .....so change should do me "good"! Will start early in new year to apply system etc..... Thanks again Lord Bobbin for reminding me that i had not checked out STRATEGIES on FAVOURITES etc etc.......... Your "prod" got me finally round to checking out STRATEGIES on previously rated races........so the thread has proved useful for me.....and perhaps it also gives "hope" to those striving to find the grail!!!!! Gl with bets. |
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Got enough energy up to check out applying similar STRATEGY re BACKING and LAYING 3rd favourites that are at "value" odds , using RANK position in ratings and the odds at BF SP.........and now it looks like this "value" based strategy "works" with system ratings on FAVS/2nd FAVS/3rd FAVS.......both in WIN and PLACE markets.
BACKING IN WIN MARKET ROI 11.82409178 NUMBER BETS 1046 TOTAL BF SP ODDS 4770.19 AVERAGE ODDS PER BET 4.56041109 NUMBER LOSING BETS 787 NUMBER WINNING BETS 259 STRIKE-RATE 24.76099426 ============================================================================================== LAYING IN WIN MARKET ROI 4.589363947 NUMBER BETS 820 TOTAL BF SP ODDS 3307.43 AVERAGE ODDS PER BET 4.03345122 NUMBER LOSING BETS 141 NUMBER WINNING BETS 679 STRIKE-RATE 82.80487805 ======================================================================================= LAYING IN PLACE MARKET TO GAIN 1 POINT LEVEL STAKES ROI 6.470741902 NUMBER BETS 820 TOTAL BF SP ODDS -765.6 AVERAGE ODDS PER BET -0.933658537 NUMBER LOSING BETS -387 NUMBER WINNING BETS 433 STRIKE-RATE 52.80487805 =========================================================================== LAYING IN PLACE MARKET TO A FIXED LIABILITY OF 1 POINT ROI 15.08273063 NUMBER BETS 820 TOTAL BF SP ODDS -765.6 AVERAGE ODDS PER BET -0.933658537 NUMBER LOSING BETS -387 NUMBER WINNING BETS 433 STRIKE-RATE 52.80487805 ================================================================= The PROFITS over the above number of bets on races checked from past ratings would have been - WIN WIN LAYS LAYS MARKET MARKET MARKET MARKET TO GAIN FIXED 1 POINT LIABILITY BACK LAY DAILY DAILY DAILY DAILY PLACE PLACE PROFIT PROFIT PROFIT PROFIT OR LOSS OR LOSS OR LOSS OR LOSS 123.68 151.79 49.54 115.95 ======================================================================================= From the check carried out on the number of bets ..... NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER BETS 1046 BETS 820 BETS 820 BETS 820 for above 4 STRATEGIES I am interested to hear whether the STATS above indicate the system, combined with "VALUE" STRATEGY, is demonstrating a STRONG EDGE ........MEDIUM EDGE....or SMALL EDGE. As the AVERAGE ODDS are at BFSP for LAYS, then IMO this is as near to the "grail" as I can get to and should be "good enough" STRATEGIES to use "in due course"! Lord Bobbin has stirred me to check out these STRATEGIES.....so he/she in particular should be interested in results of checks SO FAR! GL with bets today. |
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DFC, your question. Is this the Holy Grail certainly not zip will give you 2 losers ever day starting tomorrow and it is nothing to do with the Holy Grail by the way my take on the Holy Grail is something us mere mortals cannot achieve .
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zip - so you reckon that laying 364 FAVOURITES over 33 days at average odds ( BF SP) 2.95-1 and getting 277 winning lays is near "grail" level? ie 8.39 average number of losers over 33 days !
2 lays a day is well short of 8 zip! |
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At SP odds the lays average 2.55......so it would be expected that there might be 142 losers......but there are only 87 amongst the lays on favourites over the 33 days.......
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DFC what are you talking about .. zip dont understand
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