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IS THIS THE GRAIL?
IS THIS THE GRAIL?
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A - already have every race rated with results , but the BF SP odds + IR low odds and BF SP PLACE odds etc need to bed one for every race checked with STRATEGIES.
It is a slow process.....but I do learn from each race as completed.....not "wasted" time. I have "GLANCED" ahead over most races and I know the LAY STRATEGY "works", though have not put DETAILS of above odds against each horse and completed check. My "glance" does access information pretty accurately, as i know what I am looking at etc   So if someone wants to select a date from 01.04.08 to 31.05.08 ....04.03.09 to 31.03.09 ...and then I can post the SELECTED DATE ratings/results.....then you will see (I hope) that the LAY STRATEGY "works".... |
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Okay DFC. Let's go with, erm, 17.03.09!
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Deciding if a strategy "works" after analyzing the results of 1 day ... you must be joking!
you need at least 100-200 races, depending on the odds you are LAYing, to say "it might work" |
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Sorry "guys" been watching TRIAL & RETRIBUTION.....17.03.09 is below LB
17TH MARCH 2009 ( DAY 14) EXETER 15:50 Novices' Handicap Chase 5yo plus 3m Class 4 12 runners Good Good to Firm IP 1,Weather Permitting 10 2,Killing Me Softly 3RD 22-1 2&3:£15.50 WITH 3RD FAV 1&3:£16.70 WITH FAV 3,Bold Punt 9-2 2ND FAV 4,Maree Hall 16 5,Peter Pole 1ST 15-8F BF SP3.23 MAX IP 3.45 6,Baren De Doc 2ND 8-1 3RD FAV 7,Laudamus N/R 8,Justabout 17-2 --NON-QUALIFYING BACKING RACE - BUT QUALIFYING LAY RACE Straight Forecast: £17.73 Tricast: £263.67 Exacta: £19.70 9,Indian Chase 66 10,Royal Hilarity 17-2 11,Bertie May 25 12,Lancaster Sound 10 13,Atherstone Hill 40 KEMPTON 14:30 Novices' Handicap Chase 5yo plus 2m 4f 110y Class 4 9 runners Good 1,Ballyman 2ND 10-1Swingers:1&2:£20.20, 2&3:£8.00, 1&3:£17.70 2,The Spieler 9-2 3RD F 3,Shake The Barley 3RD 13-2 4,Funny Fellow 7-2F 5,I'm A Legend 12 --------------------------------------------------------------------NON-QUALIFYING LAY RACE 6,Soprano 4 2ND F 7,Taipan's Promise 12 8,Fire And Rain 1ST 10-1 BF SP 11.50 MAX IP 11 9,Diego Velasquez 9 15:40 Handicap Hurdle 4yo plus 2m 5f Class 3 12 runners Good 1,Nikos Extra 4TH 5 2,The Hairy Lemon 20 3,Laredo Sound 3RD 9-2 2ND F 4,Buster Collins 66 5,Zonergem 33 6,Mud Monkey 25 7,Shannon Springs 10 ----------------------------------------------------------------NON-QUALIFYING LAY RACE 8,Owlesbury Dream 20 9,Royaleety 100-30F 10,Mendo 2ND 13-2 11,Earth Dream 1ST 11-2 3RD F BF SP 7.60 MAX IP 100 12,Karasakal 12 16:15 Handicap Chase 5yo plus 2m Class 3 7 runners Good 1,Quillan Hill 6 3RD F 2,Green Gamble 1ST 16-1 SP 1&2:£3.60 WITH FAV BF SP 22.24 MAX IP 21 3,Huguenot 100-30 4,Dominican Monk 2ND 6-5FEx £28.70 CSF £34.66 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------NON-QUALIFYING LAY RACE 5,Kerriemuir Lass 16 6,Ouste 3RD 33 2&3:£7.80 WITH FAV 7,Rapid Increase 8 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 16:50 Conditionals' Handicap Hurdle 4yo plus 2m Class 4 10 runners Good 1,Shali San 10 2,Cockatoo 3RD 16-1 1&3:£16.20 WITH 2ND FAV 2&3:£14.10 WITH 3RD FAV 3,Maxwil 10 4,Spanish Conquest 1ST 7-2 2ND FAV BF SP 4.80 MAX IP 6.40 5,Green Belt Elite 15-8F 6,Sam Lord 2ND 9-1 3RD FAV --NON-QUALIFYING BACKING RACE -AND NON- QUALIFYING LAY RACE Straight Forecast: £33.82 Tricast: £438.17 Exacta: £32.70 7,Hatch A Plan 33 8,Sumdancer 25 9,Major Miller 10 10,Smoothly Does It 16 SOUTHWELL 14:55 Handicap 4yo plus 6f Class 3 4 runners tandard 1,Wotashirtfull 3 2,Xpres Maite 2ND 5-2 3,Nightjar 1ST EVENS F BF SP 2.22 MAX IP 3.45 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------NON-QUALIFYING LAY RACE 4,Invincible Force 9 15:30 Handicap 4yo plus 1m 3f Class 6 10 runners Standard 1,Elliwan 3RD 8-13F 2,Lady Longcroft 10 JT 3RD F 3,Coral Shores 10 JT 3RD F 4,Capistrano 16 5,Golden Future 66 6,Mill Beattie 25 --------------------------------------------------------NON-QUALIFYING BACKING RACE - BUT QUALIFYING LAY RACE 7,Spares And Repairs 2ND 20-1 1&2:£9.30 WITH 2ND FAV 2&3:£5.50 WITH FAV 8,That'll Do Nicely 1ST 4-1 2ND FAV BF SP 6.27 MAX IP 5.90 9,Little Rococoa 66 10,Deadline 18 16:05 Handicap 4yo plus 1m Class 4 3 runners Standard 1,Boscage 1ST 2-7F 2,United Nations 2ND 7-2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------NON-QUALIFYING LAY RACE 3,Sudden Impact 22 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 16:40 Handicap 3yo only 6f Class 4 5 runners Standard 1,Takeover Bid 1ST 9-4 BF SP 3.65 MAX IP 3.70 2,Rio Cobolo 10 3,Fesko 2ND EVENS F ---------------------------------------------------------------------------NON-QUALIFYING LAY RACE N/A AS SWINGER RACE 4,Noodles Blue Boy 20 5,Lesley's Choice 3RD 6 17:10 Handicap 4yo plus 1m 6f Class 5 5 runners Standard 1,Calculating 1ST 13-8F BF SP 2.62 MAX IP 4.40 2,Spiritonthemount 12 3,Augustus John 3RD 3 -----------------------------------------------------------------NON-QUALIFYING LAY RACE N/A AS SWINGER RACE 4,William's Way 2ND 9-2 5,Victory Quest 7-2 ====================================================================================================== Still watching T&R..........Will be back after it. Remember only races with minimum of 10 runners for LAY STRATEGY mentioned above....have not looked at this day ...YET! |
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Please ignore all the NON-QUALIFYING RACE c r a p !!!!!!!
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At a glance ...a few HITS that day .....on LAYS ....but at a glance there would be a PROFIT on BACKING STRATEGIES....which I have not disclosed.......as would perhaps disclose too much information!
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acornel....I have glanced at over 600 races re this STRATEGY........and it "works"....
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DFC,
So what are you waiting for? Choose the staking plan, go for automation because I suppose you don't want to "miss" some races/bets ... and watch how your bank increases day after day :-) |
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I posted above ...twice A ...that waiting on friend sorting out system and hopefully will have it by OCTOBER 2011.
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WD LB ...you gota losing day re LAY STRATEGY ...probably around 9 points....
The 16-1 SP winner ....GREEN GAMBLE ( seems an appropriate name ....was clearly a VALUE back and would be caught by 1 of BACK STRATEGIES......and PROFIT from that would cover most of LOSS on lays that day..... Tue 17 previous year previous month Mar 2009 S M T W T F S 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Apr 2009 next month next year S M T W T F S 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Kempton Park GB & Ireland Exeter Kempton Park Southwell Down Royal Wexford USA Mountaineer Casino Racetrack & Resort Turf Paradise 16:15 14:00 2m Maiden Stakes 14:30 2m4f 110yds Handicap 15:05 2m5f Maiden Stakes 15:40 2m5f Handicap 16:15 2m Handicap 16:50 2m Apprentice Handicap 17:20 2m4f 110yds Amateur Stkes Kempton Park - Tuesday 17th March 2009 previous race 16:15 next race Print page Horse Jockey Trainer Horse Name Csp - Cleaning Handicap Chase(3) 2m Turf, GOOD Pos (draw) Dist Horse Age Weight Eqp Jockey Trainer In-play price SPs and Advantage High Low BSP ISP +/− Place 1 Green Gamble 9 10-12 Alex Merriam (5) Diana Grissell 21 - 22.24 17 26% 9.40 2 1½ Dominican Monk (IRE) 10 11-9 Timmy Murphy David Arbuthnot - 1.74 2.34 2.20 6% 1.47 3 nk Ouste (FR) 7 11-12 Charlie Poste (3) Sophie Leech - 1.38 45.48 34 28% 13.20 |
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Green Gamble 9 10-12 Alex Merriam (5) Diana Grissell 21 - 22.24 17 26% 9.40
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2 LAY losing bets would be that day
Pos (draw) Dist Horse Age Weight Eqp Jockey Trainer In-play price SPs and Advantage High Low BSP ISP +/− Place 1 Earth Dream (IRE) 6 10-3 Harry Skelton (5) Paul Nicholls 100 - 7.60 6.50 14% 2.58 ============================================================ Pos (draw) Dist Horse Age Weight Eqp Jockey Trainer In-play price SPs and Advantage High Low BSP ISP +/− Place 1 (9) That'll Do Nicely (IRE) 6 9-4 Paul Mulrennan Nicky Richards 5.90 - 6.27 5 25% 1.73 |
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What would be the maximum odds to LAY for your system? I see ~22.00 already ...
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DFC, instead of laying horses below the line almost irrespective of odds, why don't you search out those races where the favourite is below your magic line and then just lay the favourite? You wouldn't get many picks, but you'd get enough. I count one lay in the day I picked (typical of me to choose a bad day for you!!) and I think there were three qualifying lays in that first day you posted up. All of the lays lost.
There isn't enough data there for me to say whether this would work with your system or not, but you obviously have the information in front of you. |
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I am not a LAYER in mindset ....and have not checked out that STRATEGY LB.....how tick am eye
Certainly on the two days posted to thread it "works" ......4+2.......No idea how it works over all races though!!!!!! |
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acornel - not sure you are understanding what has been posted ...if it is GREEN GAMBLE you are referring to re win odds at BF SP .....that was above the line and a clear BACK ....not LAY....due to the VALUE in odds and RANKING of that horse ( 2nd top rated etc )..............
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A - i posted that if FIELD SIZE was under 21 runners .....the ceiling on LAY is 10-1 SP.....
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Still recovering from last night pub outing ...and late night/morning!!!!
4 + 1 FAVS beaten below the line on the 2 days above ....NOT 6 |
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Suspect laying such favourites....will not "work" ......
The system was devised to find good odds winners.......and as part of input of points is relying on subjective input from me, then there is a bias to RATINGS...... Such bias will cause certain horses that have many factors in favour be included with those below the line. Therefore by IGNORING the lowest odds one below the line as the lay selection.......favourites will be avoided as lays generally below the line .....unless they are only qualifying horse from ratings for LAY. This is a FILTER to take account of MARKET VIEW on race.........sometimes the MARKET knows more than me( SOMETIMES ) |
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Okay DFC. I obviously didn't know what ingredients you had mixed in to create your wonderful broth, but that makes sense.
Just out of interest, what are you expecting anyone else here to be able to add to your comments? (That's not intended to be snarky - I'm just wondering what types of insight you might be after?) |
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I started the thread in pure reaction to the other thread where someone was GIVING UP the search for the "grail"
Mind you the fact I had imbibed "a few" drinks that night/morning probably FIRED me up to havea thread to counter the other thread ! Trying to give "hope" to those in cheap seats!!!!!  You never know what will be posted on such a thread as this.........I do know that I will complete the CHECK on STRATEGY on all races rated just to see how much profit/ROI might be made ....( I HAVE TO WAIT ANYWAY ON FRIEND COMPLETING HIS PART RE GETTING SYSTEM FIT FOR USE AGAIN.....SO AT LEAST I AM DOING SOMETHING USEFUL WHILST WAITING....) Getting a bit knackered now ....but thanks for your posts LB and A.....always some "thought" given to them....Pretty sure the lay favs angle below the line won't work though .....but will keep eye on results as I do CHECK.... Time to chill out now ...and FOOTBALL on...Need a goal in COLON game G M the noooooooooooooooooo |
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this is some serious work DFC. good stuff.
do you have a day job? also did anyone see nature's giants tonight about racehorse breeding? |
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If you were trying to convince Dev (or whatever his name was) last night that the Holy Grail did exist, I think you should have started the thread with a smaller post! I guarantee you would have lost him after about line three...
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hey the original poster is right about foootball i have come to the conclusion in football form is not significant enough and really the only way to bet on football is in play betting pre game is random
reason teams change mentality change formations etc the same players dont usually play every game once a ball is kick all previous form goes out the window like teams that u see getiing beat week in week out can change ther formation eventually etc its all about what happens on the pitch at the time not what happened last week football is played by humans humans adapt i cant understand why people try to devise football ratings when most teams you will find dont play the exact same team week in week out yes football form is important but i dont think it is significant enough unlike horses how do you create your own ratings do you use a computer |
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Had to get friend to computerise system as i needed to take the tedious part out doing ratings.
Not "easy" converting what was in my heid to someone who knew nothing about horse racing! So took a number of years before he produced the system....and in 2008 started to rate races on it. Been long pauses since then due to various circumstances..........and I needed to analyse the results for ratings to try to figure out how best to use them ! Away to watch BANFIELD match ...glutton for punishment....hope this on does not finish 0-0 as layed it! MGOFS 1-0 or 0-1. Gl with bets. |
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DFC, why didn't you teach yourself to program? A few minutes each night for the last two years and you'd definitely have enough knowledge of programming now to be able to create your own programs. You don't actually need to have an awful lot of programming skills in order to be able to extract data, perform calculations on it, and put it back into a text file in a form that works best for you.
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The-Revolutionary, football isn't quite as random as you think. You get to hear exactly who's going to be playing before the game starts, and from that you can usually have a stab at what the formation will be. You don't always know the team mentality, but there are certain games that you know the teams will be taking less seriously than others. And there'll be some matches where you're expecting the team to be experiencing a bit of a hangover from the last match.
The teams who have been playing European football mid-week invariably struggle when they play league games three days later. And that's particularly so when they have small squads and so have to play virtually the same team in both matches. Last week, the only Uefa Cup team not to struggle on the Sunday was Tottenham. And that probably had much to do with them fielding a young team in the Uefa match, only to dramatically change the team when they played in the league. If you're struggling to tell how a team is likely to play, it could be because you're concentrating on fixtures lists rather than individual teams. I watch almost every Manchester United game, and can usually tell from the Man U teamsheet whether it's going to be an exciting attacking team, or whether they're going to be playing mainly for a draw. Sometimes I won't be entirely sure which way the team's going to go. In that case I can always watch their game (on Sopcast if necessary) and can usually tell a few minutes into the match whether they're up for the match or not. Now, I'm no expert when it comes to football, so if I can get some strong ideas just by watching Man U in a fairly casual way, then I'm sure many of the people on Betfair can become extremely well informed through following one or two or three teams almost exclusively. Get to know not just the main players, but also those on the fringes of the squad. And know which types of team are likely to cause them problems, and which types of team are tailor-made to be destroyed by them. |
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LB - thought this might interest you......
From races checked SO FAR ( only over 9 days), if you BACKED FAV/JF/CFs (because they are "VALUE" LAYS due to their RANK and odds at SP making them so IMO) then LAYED them IR their appears to be HUGE scope for STRATEGY there. I know this is NOT a "new" idea.....but it is interesting that there was only 1 horse from the selections under criteria that did not reduce in odds IR. Where it has "0" ......it means it "won" etc FAVS OR JFS OR CFS ABOVE OR BELOW LINE AT VALUE TO BACK TO LAY IR REDUCTION IR LOW IN ODDS NUMBER ODDS IR SELECTIONS TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL 97.7 101.28 48 3.6 2.4 1 1.08 0.42 1 0 3.3 1 2.5 0 1 0 3.46 1 0 3.77 1 0.1 4.09 1 0.02 3.04 1 1 4.44 1 4 1.6 1 0.33 1.77 1 2.1 0.65 1 0 2.25 1 1.5 3.9 1 0 1.98 1 0.66 4.94 1 3.1 2.3 1 6.8 4.92 1 0 0 1 7.2 1 1 0.9 4.68 1 4.1 0.2 1 0 8.5 1 6 0.92 1 2.3 0.8 1 1.98 2.02 1 3 0.68 1 4.8 0.4 1 0 3 1 0 2.21 1 0 5.14 1 0 3 1 2.7 0.3 1 1.6 1.89 1 1.4 1.05 1 2.95 0.45 1 0.18 3.42 1 4 0.79 1 1.5 1.15 1 0 2.58 1 2.4 0.35 1 5 0.4 1 5 1.1 1 4.9 -0.08 1 2 2.75 1 0 1.75 1 5.2 1.3 1 1.8 0.3 1 The above was from races rated in APRIL 2008 with a minimum of 10 runners....... So your post on here has stimulated my heid ....a bit.....and the apparent scope for PROFIT is clear from above races checked SO FAR! Therefore I may well have gained from starting this thread ALREADY Better get back to analysing results ..... GL with bets today |
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If you add the first 2 columns then that gives the BF SP price after the 1 has been deducted.....eg first horse was 7.00 BF SP ...ie 6-1 etc etc
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Right. Erm. Good! Keep it up DFC!
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Can't say what the exact BACK and LAY STRATEGY is re above "idea"..........but can say that applying it to the 8 days races ( where 10 runners min in race) the figures indicate - approximately £1,100 PROFIT after commission at 5% using BACK stakes of £100.
"Interesting" results SO FAR! |
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Only 48 selections though over the 9 days ......YUP 9 DAYS above post should read !
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DFC,
The most important parameter is the edge (in percentage) ... the profit (absolute value) has no relevance ... |
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Also, 48 selection/9 days is not much but in any case it looks like you are on the "good path"!
GL |
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LB - applying this "idea" to the day you chose ...the 17.03.09....there would only be 3 bets......
A PROFIT of £17 only would be made applying this STRATEGY of BACK AND LAY for that day. At least not a LOSS!!!! |
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acornel- you do the matchs on the recent "idea" ...and
STAKES = 48 x £100 = £4,800 NET PROFIT AFTER COMMISSION = £1,118 What ROI does this show? Such a ROI is a strong indicator that there IS AN "EDGE" re using the system this way. |
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Even on 17.03.09 the £17 net profit obtained on basis of £300 total STAKES shows 5.66% ROI........
This looks like a pretty mediocre day for system...........but some would consider 5.66% ROI as indicating "EDGE". |
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"maths" A....sorry ...typing too quickly again!
Pick another day A...and will check how applying this STRATEGY would work out..... |
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BTW - out of the 48 selections......only 13 won.......Strike-rate 27.08% This is why STRATEGY works over the 9 days....
With FAVS/JFS/CFS having a far higher WIN ratio than the above over all........then again the RANKING of system re FAVS etc results over the 48 indicate an "EDGE"..... |