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IS THIS THE GRAIL?
IS THIS THE GRAIL?
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At SP odds of 2.55-1 you would expect there would be 39.21% of winning horses.
If you lay 364 horses at average odds 2.55-1, then you would expect 142 horses winning. The system, together with laying at "value" odds strategy, using RANK position in ratings and odds, only has 87 losers ( ie horses that win) if selecting lays using this STRATEGY. ie 364 lays with 277 of them not winning over 33 days = 8.39 average number of winning lays over the 33 days........ Is this not well above average zip ? |
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DFC, your sample is far too small. You're going to need at least 10x that sample size before a result becomes significant.
This is one reason why systemites often lose. They collect some stats and look for an edge. After collecting a few hundred samples they find a system with a 20% edge and think 'yahoo, this is the one' and start betting. Often this is just the time the data starts to rebalance and all their winners turn into losers. After losing their shirt they have a sample size that is about right and they see that their wonderous system actually has an edge of -5%. One winning system could be to look for a system based on a few hundred samples that is heavily positive and then start doing the opposite ! I suspect you'd find it quite productive. Big numbers, like breasts, are always the best (well usually) |
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If you did the "opposite" re BACKING and LAYING the FAV/2nd FAV/ 3rd FAV and went against the system......you would lose !
So that would be a "mad" way to go........ After checking almost every race that was rated covering the months of APRIL, MAY and JULY 2008 , and selecting according to VALUE and RANK position in ratings as to whether to BACK or LAY such "favourites", amounting to HUNDREDS of races of different type/distance/field size / goings etc etc..........then attaining ROI on 1,046 BACK selections of 11.82409178 and ROI on PLACE LAY selections of 820 lays of 15.08273063 %, then to go against such stats would be lunacy IMO...... Thanks for view though.... |
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Remember.......the % ROI calculations are at the "sharp" end of market where the odds are meant to be at their most efficient.....
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BTW the check just on FAVOURITES in APRIL and MAY 2008 covered 971 races where BACKS selected by criteria totalled only 389......and LAYS selected by criteria amounted to 364....
So no selections were made for FAVOURITES in 218 races.....as the criteria was not met. So on FAVOURITES checked....it is on almost 1,000 races . Not an "insignificant" check IMO........at the "sharp" end of market. |
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Latest update on previously rated races and applying set STRATEGIES for BACKING and LAYING in WIN and PLACE markets with selections meeting "VALUE" criteria and using RANK position of 1st/2nd/3rd favs.......
Been checking out 3rd favourites position for some races in JULY/AUGUST 2008 and the cumulative figures now are .... WIN WIN LAYS LAYS MARKET MARKET MARKET MARKET TO GAIN FIXED 1 POINT LIABILITY BACK LAY DAILY DAILY DAILY DAILY PLACE PLACE PROFIT PROFIT PROFIT PROFIT ROI OR LOSS OR LOSS OR LOSS OR LOSS 167.43 170.7 54.95 118.59 0.17 4.7 5.4 13.39 32.81 44.78 13.16 53.66 7.5 32.46 11.51 20.61 19.73 47.67 9.57 16.12 43.75 18.91 5.41 2.64 63.47 22.18 9.9 12.17 ROI 14.05793451 ROI 4.605025332 ROI 6.432543167 ROI 13.83118928 NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER BETS 1191 BETS 881 BETS 881 BETS 881 TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL BF SP BF SP BF SP BF SP ODDS 5871.73 ODDS 3706.82 ODDS -854.25 ODDS -854.25 AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE ODDS ODDS ODDS ODDS PER BET 4.930083963 PER BET 4.207514188 PER BET -0.969636776 PER BET -0.969636776 NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER LOSING LOSING LOSING LOSING BETS 906 BETS 147 BETS -411 BETS -411 NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER WINNING WINNING WINNING WINNING BETS 285 BETS 734 BETS 470 BETS 470 STRIKE-RATE 23.92947103 STRIKE-RATE 83.31441544 STRIKE-RATE 53.34846765 STRIKE-RATE 53.34846765 ============================================================================================== So ROI on WIN BACKS has increased.......and slight decrease in PLACE LAY ROI to fixed liability. The 3rd favourite BACKS and LAYS are a bit more "volatile" from day to day........but still average about 6 points profit over 10 days checked in JULY/AUGUST 2008. 277 races were checked re 3rd favourites in recent check since I last posted ....with 145 BACK bets in WIN market meeting criteria for selection....and only 61 LAYS meeting criteria . Over all ....SO FAR......averaging approximately 14 points profit daily re carrying out this check on FAVS/2nd FAVS/3rd FAVS.......... Nothing being thrown up that puts me off STRATEGIES yet...... GL with bets today. |
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Will post figs separately as not clear above..
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BACK
DAILY PROFIT OR LOSS 167.43 0.17 32.81 7.5 19.73 43.75 63.47 ROI 14.05793451 NUMBER BETS 1191 TOTAL BF SP ODDS 5871.73 AVERAGE ODDS PER BET 4.930083963 NUMBER LOSING BETS 906 NUMBER WINNING BETS 285 STRIKE-RATE 23.92947103 |
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WIN
MARKET LAY DAILY PROFIT OR LOSS 170.7 4.7 44.78 32.46 47.67 18.91 22.18 ROI 4.605025332 NUMBER BETS 881 TOTAL BF SP ODDS 3706.82 AVERAGE ODDS PER BET 4.207514188 NUMBER LOSING BETS 147 NUMBER WINNING BETS 734 STRIKE-RATE 83.31441544 |
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LAYS
MARKET TO GAIN 1 POINT DAILY PLACE PROFIT OR LOSS 54.95 5.4 13.16 11.51 9.57 5.41 9.9 ROI 6.432543167 NUMBER BETS 881 TOTAL BF SP ODDS -854.25 AVERAGE ODDS PER BET -0.969636776 NUMBER LOSING BETS -411 NUMBER WINNING BETS 470 STRIKE-RATE 53.34846765 |
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LAYS
MARKET FIXED LIABILITY DAILY PLACE PROFIT OR LOSS 118.59 13.39 53.66 20.61 16.12 2.64 12.17 ROI 13.83118928 NUMBER BETS 881 TOTAL BF SP ODDS -854.25 AVERAGE ODDS PER BET -0.969636776 NUMBER LOSING BETS -411 NUMBER WINNING BETS 470 STRIKE-RATE 53.34846765 |
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Too small a sample.
There is a difference between 'not insignificant' and 'significant'. |
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DrWhom.....I know that many many will say ..."too small" a sample.....BUT......the races rated cover every type and fieldsize etc etc ....and as there are over 1,000 races being checked out re applying SET STRATEGIES etc......then the consistency of how system rates races is enabling "VALUE" selections to be obtained.
Remember.......each race is being attacked re FAV/2ndFAV and 3rd FAV......for example - just selecting a race at random - NEWBURY 13:30 Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good 1,Demeanour 16-1 2,Suakin Dancer 40-1 3,Sharpener 5-2F 4,Brooksby 50-1 5,Prima Fonteyn 100-1 6,Miss Tango Hotel 12-1 7,Ballyalla 1ST 6-1 3RD F 8,Costa Lotta 66-1 9,Slant 3RD 40-1 1&3 £110.50 10,Peninsula Girl 13-2 ------------------------------------------ 11,Super Midge 11-1 12,Intrepid Lady 25-1 13,Solitary 9-2 2ND F 14,Crown Affair 50-1 15,Order Order 25-1 16,Perfect Pride 2ND 16-1 17,Fly Butterfly 50-1 18,Lily Waters 66-1 ====================================================================================== The FAV is 5-2 and in top 3 rated .....so 1 point backed to win only.....would be lost......-1 point 2nd FAV is below the line ( 50%+1 of field size) and is at VALUE odds to lay considering the RANK position and odds . So would be layed WIN and PLACE ....gaining 2 points less commission The 3rd FAV won .....but as only 6-1 SP and ranked 7th ...to me this is NOT "VALUE" considering rank position....therefore not a BACK or LAY........ So PROFIT of 0.90 points after commission at 5% say....from that race....... The system consistently "finds" "VALUE" selections....so it should consistently produce returns that enable profit to be made. Still have a few checks to carry out ........if I have time ....but SO FAR the ROI from BACKS in WIN market and LAYS in PLACE market to FIXED LIABILITY are "stunning" IMO now.......considering just how accurate the odds are meant to be etc etc at short odds end of market! |
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Look, the last thing I want to do is rain on your parade but sample size really is an issue and its destroyed many system players before you because they've jumped the gun. Just look at any of the 'system builder' type websites that are around. You can create great systems any time you want but will they walk into the future the same way as they've performed in the past, particularly if they're based on a small sample ? 99% won't but then again 1% will, so you may be lucky. Have fun.....
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As there can be over 100 FACTORS taking into account when rating a race......the complexity of system should stand test of time, as all of those FACTORS won't disappear overnight ...unless the end of world is nigh
  .....which it might be This is NOT a "simple" system DrW........so should stand up to rating future races ..... Thanks for making the point re "SMALL" sample of races.....but as at least 1,000 various races covered ...AW/NH/TURF re rated races.....then any rain that falls should only be a temporary shower.....  |
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More checks carried out on FAVOURITES. The over all position is now re BACKING and LAYING in WIN and PLACE markets for the 4 STRATEGIES, using RANK position and odds where "VALUE" is as follows :-
WIN MARKET BACK DAILY PROFIT OR LOSS TOTAL PROFIT 207.66 FAVS 9 DAYS 40.4 33 DAYS 32.81 2ND FAVS 13 DAYS 7.5 21 DAYS 19.73 3RD FAVS 10 DAYS 43.75 16 DAYS 63.47 ROI 16.14774495 NUMBER BETS 1286 TOTAL BF SP ODDS 6162.93 AVERAGE ODDS PER BET 4.792325039 NUMBER LOSING BETS 966 NUMBER WINNING BETS 320 STRIKE-RATE 24.88335925 ================================================================================================= WIN MARKET LAY DAILY PROFIT OR LOSS TOTAL PROFIT 190.44 FAVS 9 DAYS 24.44 33 DAYS 44.78 2ND FAVS 13 DAYS 32.46 21 DAYS 47.67 3RD FAVS 10 DAYS 18.91 16 DAYS 22.18 ROI 4.897669466 NUMBER BETS 949 TOTAL BF SP ODDS 3888.38 AVERAGE ODDS PER BET 4.097344573 NUMBER LOSING BETS 159 NUMBER WINNING BETS 790 STRIKE-RATE 83.2455216 ================================================================================================ LAYS MARKET TO GAIN 1 POINT DAILY PLACE PROFIT OR LOSS TOTAL PROFIT 71.25 FAVS 9 DAYS 21.7 33 DAYS 13.16 2ND FAVS 13 DAYS 11.51 21 DAYS 9.57 3RD FAVS 10 DAYS 5.41 16 DAYS 9.9 ROI 7.92212413 NUMBER BETS 949 TOTAL BF SP ODDS -899.38 AVERAGE ODDS PER BET -0.947713383 NUMBER LOSING BETS -444 NUMBER WINNING BETS 505 STRIKE-RATE 53.21390938 =============================================================================================== LAYS MARKET FIXED LIABILITY DAILY PLACE PROFIT OR LOSS TOTAL PROFIT 139.83 FAVS 9 DAYS 34.63 33 DAYS 53.66 2ND FAVS 13 DAYS 20.61 21 DAYS 16.12 3RD FAVS 10 DAYS 2.64 16 DAYS 12.17 ROI 15.49294214 NUMBER BETS 949 TOTAL BF SP ODDS -899.38 AVERAGE ODDS PER BET -0.947713383 NUMBER LOSING BETS -444 NUMBER WINNING BETS 505 STRIKE-RATE 53.21390938 ================================================================================================== ROI has "improved" with carrying out more checks on races for all 4 STRATEGIES....so still nothing to indicate the STRATEGIES won't "work" using system ratings. Still have more days to check .....but hard to see STRATEGIES ending in a LOSS position.....as consistently "VALUE" selections stand out using system ratings . I see on another thread that the point is being made that it is important to find "VALUE" on bets......and hard to "pick winners". Generally I agree on the point made......as generally i can normally "see" where the winner might come from.....but "knowing" a horse will win is a feeling I rarely have. So USING "VALUE" as the key to selections ( BACKING or LAYING) , combined with using system RATINGS, has to be way to make consistent profits. Gl with bets. |
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HORSE RACING NOTHING MORE THAN A COMPLETE LOTTERY.
CLOSE YOUR EYES STICK A PIN IN THE PAPER AND YOU GET THE SAME RESULTS 9IF NOT BETTER) THAN SOME MORON STUDYING POINTLESS FORM ITS A HORSE FFS! AN ANIMAL IT DOES WHAT IT WANTS WHEN IT WANTS!!!!! CANT REMEMBER HOW MANY TIMES IVE PROVED THIS ON THE HORSE RACING FORUM. CLOWNS SPENDING HRS STUDYING FORM ONLY TO FIND LOSER AFTER LOSER. I JUST PICKED ANY OLD RANDOM HORSE AND ALWAYS HAD WINNING THREADS LOTTERY!!!! YOU ARE DELUSIONAL IF YOU THINK STUDYING FORM MAKES ANY BIT OF DIFFERENCE  |
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With respect, I-Only-Lay, that's drivel. It's true that a lot of the time horse races are a bit of a lottery. However, if you're very selective, you can find races where a horse clearly has more class than the others lining up against it. That still doesn't mean that it'll win, so you have to make sure that the odds are sufficiently generous that they factor in the chances of the horse simply not firing that day.
I can assure you that I was hopeless at picking out successful horses 18 months ago. 12 months ago I was better but still not really profitable. Over the last eight months I've been able to make a modest profit - stretching to a very solid profit (given my stakes) over the last few months. Over 18 months I've become gradually better and better at reading the form, so I can assure you that it's no lottery. You do need to be selective and look for generous odds though. And you can actually apply the 'an animal does what it wants when it wants' argument to human-based sports too. How often do we see a football team being put out that, on paper, looks like it should rout the opposition, but in reality struggles to craft even one goal? But as long as the odds will be compensating you well for that side winning, you can afford the occasional honker of a performance. |
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You obviously know little about HORSE RACING then.........
A LOTTERY is a LOTTERY ........no knowledge required....... |
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NO KNOWLEDGE IS NEEDED FOR HORSE RACING
NONE AT ALL |
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DFC,
Have you found a way to quickly calculate your strategy result over the past races? I agree DrWhom saying 2 months results gives you too less sample size ... I found so many strategies that performed well for few months and very poor afterwards. Have you been able to automatize your system? How it works? On my side one month ago I decided to keep only the strategies that performed good during my live test and now I can see a positive result in my P/L. GL! |
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i-only-lay 03 Nov 11 14:55
HORSE RACING NOTHING MORE THAN A COMPLETE LOTTERY. ================================================================================================ You state it is a "complete lottery"..........................................so holding that view indicates you know very very little re horse racing ....so you just view it as a "lottery". Making such a daft statement as "no knowledge is needed for horse racing"......indicates just how little you know. |
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It is NOT 2 months....it is mainly APRIL and MAY 2008 plus JULY 2008/AUGUST 2008 ........though from "glances" at other months where races were rated ....MARCH 2009.....NOVEMBER 2008 .....the STRATEGIES outlined above "work"........though have not carried out detailed checking yet.
Over 1,000 races at least have been rated ....and ROI indicated SO FAR shows the system did operate to good standard then........therefor no "reason" why it should not "work" throughout a year....as KEY FACTORS still apply etc etc |
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Great! 1000 races looks a large enough dataset.
What do you wait for implementing the system live? |
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To do it "professionally" I need certain "repairs" to a REPORT that computerised system should do.......Once sorted ....waiting on friend to get this done.....then hopefully i will be in a position to start using system again the way i want to use it!
Suspect it will be JANUARY before in a position to do it the way i want to do it ..... Good to hear you are benefiting from the time spent A on horse race betting ......I've gotta go help with tea now .... GL with bets. |
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Not read all thread...is this the Holy Grail then? Cheers
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DI - I asked the question earlier on thread re are results showing ROIs on the 4 strategies.......
The ROIs appear to be very "high" considering the stats are bets at the "sharp" end of markets......16% re BACKING 1st/2nd/3rd favourites to WIN......and about the same on LAYING in PLACE market with h fixed liability. Considering number of selections (approximately 1,286 on BACKS and 949 on LAYS ) the ROIs are IMO "high" when betting at "sharp" end of markets..................... What do you consider the level of ROI would be for a "holy grail" level of achievement? ( please don't say 100%.........as that would be impossible!) |
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In the meantime you could manually test your system, right? So that you could confirm (or not) the test you've done on past races and see if the ROI is ~ the same as the one calculated here.
Or is too much effort? If you need help (from IT point of view) just say it ... |
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There is one STRATEGY that indicates ROI of over 200%( near 300% actually).....but this can only be attacked through bets through BOOKMAKERS.....and the runs of losers are long.......but the wins when they come are "huge" ....Only for certain race types though.....and would need a "team" placing bets ....which of course the bookies would then probably NOT PAY OUT under their rules etc etc
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I've convinced myself acornel that the SYSTEM of rating races operates to generally a good standard.....but it does take a lotta energy to apply it....even with computerised system !
Therefore .....really NEED one of the "REPORT" parts of the system to "work" properly ( seems not to work on races rated after 2009.......probably a date related "problem" in programming by friend). Once he fixes this "problem" i can then operate initially at an efficient level with STRATEGIES attacking FAVOURITES markets. Thanks for offer ....but trust you understand that the friend is who I rely on ....and he deserves reward for all time input in past etc etc So not using SYSTEM til the REPORT part works.........Suspect will be JANUARY before I will be in position to bet professonally! |
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I must say, I still don't entirely understand the point of this thread for anyone who doesn't have DFC's system. (So, that's essentially DFC then...)
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LB - as said before ...initially the thread was just a "reaction" to some other thread that was casting doubt on betting on HORSES/FOOTBALL........after a few drinks........BUT your post re FAVOURITES did trigger me checking out how SYSTEM performed re indicating VALUE bets .......and it has performed well SO FAR!
From my point of view it would be good to hear from others who "know" ....just how "good" ..."bad" or mediocre the ROIs are re 4 STRATEGIES indicated above....... |
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A "professional" previously indicated to me that an ROI in PLACE market on LAYING of 5% was a "very good" standard to achieve........
As the ROI in PLACE LAY market is currently near 16%.......then I am pretty sure that this would be well above average when betting at average odds of 0.94-1 in that market. The BACKING ROI is also at 16% level after 1,286 backs....at average odds on 4.79-1 ......I believe it is well above average......but just "good" is it? |
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Presuming your winnings arent going to be subject to Premium Charge, ROI of 16% for PLACE LAY and BACKING bets sounds pretty much like a HOLY GRAIL to me. Sounds like you've put a lot of work in DFC...nice going. Does it throw up several bets a day and have you noticed any signs of the edge decreasing any during the period covered?
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Thanks for view DI.
Just after checking some days in MARCH 2009 ( period where I posted RATINGS on here ....but at that time had not twigged how to use em!!!! I knew they were ap to reasonable standard though .....but for most looking at them it would be "hard" to see that!)......and the check on FAVOURITES on races rated was as follows - 03.03.09 -0.226 0.66 1.46 3.138257576 3.3 14 BACK 3.2 5 LAY 4.5 6 BACK 5.2 9 LAY 2.1 9 BACK 3.4 7 NS 4.1 13 NS 4.4 9 LAYABOVELINE 5.1 13 BACK 04.03.09 -1.48 2.55 2.39 2.812721396 4.2 12 LAYABOVELINE 5.2 13 BACK 3 9 NS 4 7 LAYABOVELINE 5 13 LAY 2.1 11 BACK 3.1 8 NS 4.1 9 LAY 4.4 5 BACK 5.1 6 NS 7.2 10 NS 8.2 11 LAY 8.5 12 LAY 9.2 7 BACK 05.03.09 3.5505 -1.26 -1.17 -2.06122449 3.15 4 NSODSONWIN 3.45 9 NS 4.2 12 BACK 4.5 12 BACK 3.25 8 LAYABOVELINE 3.55 8 BACK 4.3 8 NS 5.3 12 LAYABOVELINE 3 5 LAYABOVELINE 3.35 7 LAY 4.05 3 NS 7.2 3 NSODDSONWIN 8.5 8 LAY 06.03.09 17.444 -2.99 -0.13 -1.559080095 4.05 4 BACK 5.15 6 BACK 3.05 12 BACK 4.15 8 LAY 4.5 11 LAYABOVELINE 2.45 7 BACK 3.2 8 NS 3.55 11 BACK 2.35 6 BACK 4.2 9 BACK 4.55 5 BACK 5.3 15 LAY 6.5 12 LAY 7.5 11 LAY 8.2 8 LAY 9.2 9 BACK ====================================================================== Thoses were the only races I tackled those days........so plenty bets just with FAVS. The time of race...the number of runners are shown.....and total PROFIT or LOSS is shown for each day. The TOTALS for each of 4 STRATEGIES are shown below for the 4 days above 19.2885 -1.04 2.55 2.330674387 So over 20 points from 4 days with FAVS SO FAR in MARCH 2009. Generally the system ratings are up to good standard ....IMO......so no signs YET that the STRATEGIES won't "work". No idea how PREMIUM CHARGE will effect me.........Will be a while before I would be dragged into it I suspect.....Will deal with that IF it happens ....which it may well do..... RACING is definitely becoming harder to rate IMO........mainly due to overseas trainers participating in BRITISH races...especially IRISH trainers. AW ...TURF and NH taken on by them. So "odd" results wil occur frequently ...but hopefully the system will still be operating to good standard due to many FACTORS that can be taken into account. I better go help with breakfast nowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww. Cheers the noooooooooooooooooooo and GL with bets. |
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Completed the check on the 4 days above re 2ND FAVOURITES AND 3RD FAVOURITES ......and results are below...
2ND FAVOURITES 03.03.09 3.46 2.85 2.85 3.557978774 3.3 14 LAY 3.2 5 BACK 4.5 6 BACK 5.2 9 LAYABOVELINE 2.1 9 LAY 3.4 7 BACK 4.1 13 BACK 4.4 9 NSAND WON 5.1 13 NSANDWON 04.03.09 1.9775 1.9 1.9 2.504251701 4.2 12 NS 5.2 13 BACK 3 9 NSANDWON 4 7 BACK 5 13 LAY 2.1 11 LAY 3.1 8 BACK 4.1 9 NS 4.4 5 BACK 5.1 6 BACK 7.2 10 BACK 8.2 11 BACK 8.5 12 BACK 9.2 7 BACK 05.03.09 -0.5015 -4.5 0.03 -0.43452381 3.15 4 NS 3.45 9 NS 4.2 12 NS 4.5 12 LAY 3.25 8 BACK 3.55 8 BACK 4.3 8 LAY 5.3 12 BACK 3 5 BACK 3.35 7 NS 4.05 3 LAY 7.2 3 NS 8.5 8 NS 06.03.09 -5.77 -3.88 0.11 -0.086538462 4.05 4 NS 5.15 6 BACK 3.05 12 LAY 4.15 8 BACK 4.5 11 BACK 2.45 7 BACK 3.2 8 BACK 3.55 11 BACK 2.35 6 BACK 4.2 9 BACK 4.55 5 NS 5.3 15 BACK 6.5 12 BACK 7.5 11 NS 8.2 8 NS 9.2 9 LAY TOTALS FOR -0.834 -3.63 4.89 5.541168204 4 STRATEGIES BACK LAY LAY PLACE LAY PLACE TO GAIN 1 AT FIXED LIABILITY POINT OF 1 POINT ========================================================================================= 3RD FAVS 03.03.09 -5 2.85 0.26 2.096813725 3.3 14 BACK 3.2 5 BACK 4.5 6 BACK 5.2 9 LAYABOVELINE 2.1 9 LAY 3.4 7 BACK 4.1 13 BACK 4.4 9 NS 5.1 13 LAY 04.03.09 11.9315 1.9 1.9 1.387301587 4.2 12 BACK 5.2 13 LAY 3 9 BACK 4 7 NS 5 13 NS 2.1 11 BACK 3.1 8 NS 4.1 9 BACK 4.4 5 NS 5.1 6 BACK 7.2 10 LAY 8.2 11 BACK 8.5 12 BACK 9.2 7 NS 05.03.09 -5 2.85 2.85 3.188968538 3.15 4 NS 3.45 9 BACK 4.2 12 NS 4.5 12 BACK 3.25 8 LAY 3.55 8 LAY 4.3 8 BACK 5.3 12 BACK 3 5 NS 3.35 7 BACK 4.05 3 NS 7.2 3 NS 8.5 8 LAY 06.03.09 -3.5065 2.85 2.85 2.871697268 4.05 4 BACK 5.15 6 BACK 3.05 12 BACK 4.15 8 NS 4.5 11 BACK 2.45 7 BACK 3.2 8 LAY 3.55 11 LAY 2.35 6 BACK 4.2 9 NS 4.55 5 BACK 5.3 15 LAY 6.5 12 NS 7.5 11 NS 8.2 8 BACK 9.2 9 BACK TOTALS -1.575 10.45 7.86 9.544781119 ===================================================================================================== So roughly 38 points , after commission, over the above 4 days could have been achieved by BACKING and LAYING FAVS in WIN market. Field sizes were fairly low in the 4 days .....so the potential profit average dropped a bit on this check.....but still pretty "good" results SO FAR ....on checks carried out. Enough checking for day! Gl with bets. and LAYING in PLACE market to fixed liability. |
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FFS .......some of typed words are not shown ......
Should be 38 points from the 4 STRATEGIES ...including PLACE LAYING to a fixed liability! |
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Okay, I'm convinced this is a "pretty good" system. How do I join?
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Sorry M.........entrance strictly verboten !!!!
================================================================================================= Checked another 5 days in MARCH 2009 on rated races re above 4 STRATEGIES and cumulatively 59 points approximately over the 9 days checked in MARCH 2009 SO FAR! In that period though I did not rate every race in BRITAIN.........so there were far fewer selections than other racing days when I rated races.......Therefore the average PROFIT per day being reduced over the 9 days in MARCH 2009 is no real surprise....... System still seems to be consistent re enabling "VALUE" selections to be made. As I had a "stalker" in MARCH 2009 on the thread where I was posting ratings, then the results of checks on STRATEGIES in that period at the low odds end of market should justify my statement that I believed the ratings were up to a "good" standard in that period...........though I recognise it would be "difficult" for many to see. ( I know that at the higher odds end of market the system also did well in that period.......but it is good to see that the short odds ratings were also doing well too.....) See no point in continuing the analysis work on previously rated races......re the STRATEGIES for FAVS/2ND FAVS/ 3RD FAVS...................as results are so consistent in 7 months of year where races were rated........and cannot see why the system ratings should not continue to be up to a "good" standard generally for future races! So STOPPING checking NOW! Friend has at last surfaced ( he tends to hibernate a bit in winter!!!)........so hopefully when he visits on THURSDAY he will have "solved" a repair problem needing fixed! Between now and end of year I have got to attend to a number of matters that need to be dealt with......so still unlikely I will be in a position to fully concentrate on using system again until NEW YEAR! Hope thread gives some "hope" for those striving to get a system for horse racing. Gl with bets. |