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The Maria Laying System
The Maria Laying System
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Replies: 449
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Toma it's actually not your fault [;)]
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Cheers xGURKx....you two guys seem to know your football I have written a bit on the playoffs starting tomorrow on my blog, be interested to hear your thoughts!
If you are interested and have some time have a look at http://www.tipstar.co.uk/blog |
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Night Lilly being heavily punted now.
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yep, seen that Spud
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Saturn traded 1.21. Toma, did you urinate on the Gambling Gods breakfast this morning??!
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Belarussianborderbiatch, it is amazing to be honest. Not just that these horses are trading so low and getting beat but it just seems at the min the ones that beat them are always MINE.
I think it wouldn't be unfair to say I have been unlucky today! |
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Toma, like you said, there were always going to be days like these. Keep going and keep your discipline, easier said than done, but if you don't, you have no chance.
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You managed to get a 1.24 IR shot done this time. Unbelievable mate, I feel your pain!
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3 times today my bot has laid a horse in play which has gone on to trade below 1.5 and then your selection has romped past it and saved me
:( for u :) for me. variance variance variance |
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Oh dear, just had to go outside after that desastrous afternoon, came back to read this
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And another donkey traded 1.05 and got beaten by our horse!
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Horrific day and the worst team in winter olympics ice hockey beats olympia 2nd USA too, I think I just should give up and buy some ice cream with the money
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Yep, its a day best forgotton.
Some horses were traded at very short prices today only to get beaten by one of our selections (2 traded @ 1/50, 1 @ 1/33, 2 approx. 1/4 and finally to rub salt in the wound 1/20). So 6 of the 7 losers at the later stages of their races the market expected them to get beat until the final strides. Again, sometimes this will work in our favour but today we didn't seem to get our share of luck...maybe tomorrow! I have just setup my spreadsheets and database ready for populating. I Would normally start to populate them now but going to have a few cans of John Smiths an early night and start again in the morning. I am sure we can turn this around but it won't happen overnight and we just have to stick to the plan! |
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Toma
What were your criteria for selecting Night Lily and Quito Du Tresor because both horses had the form in the book to win those races. Regards Trademate |
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The Maria 'System' was invented on EBA to promote EBA.
No more, no less. |
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TBH i think that this was one massive fraud.There is too many ****es.
1.) No odds were placed before the off. 2.) No screenshots were ever produced 3.) Maria has NEVER replicated it since Think about how easy it would be to replicate this. If you could just post some hoses up (She averaged 13 a day) with no odds until AFTER the race you would be laughing. You would beat BFSP most of the time more on the ones you win with.And just go slightly over on the ones you lose with. Over time you would win IMO. Betfair them selves could confirm if the thread actually made that profit or didnt.Like they did with that newspaper story. And im sorry but if you were earning £100k a year would you go to work and live in RIGA? NO is the simple answer. She could quite easily post up on EBA her P&L for this period, but thats not going to happen. She left EBA (Wonder why) and went to Adrian Massey? She was Banned From Punters lounge as well for being arrogant.. And come on guys why isnt she one here defending herself? Coz it aint real. Plenty of people have pointed out faults with the thread and Maria has never tried to defend it.Also EBA locked the thread and posts were removed as someone said (She was a mod) So the more you look into this maria thread the more Faults you will see. If someone was to do that today it would be "Screenshot" please. THATS why she dare not replicate it. I can tell you that her system does not go by ANYTHING on the horse.That is a cover up.;-) |
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I fail to see why she would be pay only 5 percent commision. Surely she would be on a discount at the end of her post?
I shall try my own method starting from today with a 500 pound starting bank. |
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Good luck Toma and everyone who's following today, won't be on with real money, just following it on paper. So you should have a winning day today [;)]
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Hi Trademate, all I can say is similar criteria to the reasons why I selected Brae Hill, Falasteen & Danderek you could say they all had the form to win their races. I took them on and unfortunately got beat on the two you mentioned.
Night Lily won by a SH and Quito won by 2 lengths but was 3 lengths down when the leader (Master Nimbus) fell at the last after trading at 1.05. If he same races were run today I would still select them as lays. |
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Good Luck Spud I hope you are successful in your quest!
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Hi TheLayKing, I hear what you are saying and I have listened to the other people on here say similar things. I don't know if what Maria did was real or fictitious and I don't know if/how it could be proved (other than Betfair stepping in to review her account).
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Jesus, looks like another bad day. Onwards and upwards, keep the faith and all that.
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Will follow your progress with interest Toma and i hope you make a nice profit but i have decided to stop laying them with my money after another big loss today.
The staking plan has not saved me but i have only been following for the last few days so probably joined at a bad time Variance Variance |
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Within the next week you will probably hit a couple of 100% days.
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The Lay King
What method of laying do you prefer. Regards Trademate |
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How's it going chaps? didn't even follow as last day in german Bundesliga and there my money has been on and of course was watching on TV, but jonnyg's post doesn't look too promising....
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TOMA. Yeah i have been through the thread endless times.I even have all the month by month results in a spread sheet.
If you went month by month she did NOT have any losing months. Every month made a profit. What you have to realise is this:- You can ignore everything on a horse and select just 1 out of a race with more than 10 runners and you have a good chance you will not get the winner. Now IF you make sure you are getting on below BFSP you will prift as long as your S/R is high enough.It does not matter about the horse,jockey,trainer ect.It is all mathmatics that she used. It suprised me that NO one asked for proof in the whole thread that went on for a year. Think about this... IF it was that good it would have been replicated.. Go and look on massey site and see how she does with lays now.. As long as your Average odds & S/R is high enough you will profit.END of. I think it was one big con like someone else has said.Go on massey site and ask her questions.. She will baffle you with maths and go on about value.. You WONT get a straight answer. And if you DARE to upset her you will get banned.She is a Mod on there as well. She would NEVER be able to replicate that again as too many folk are now wise to that.Screenshots would be asked for. prices would be checked etc etc. Sat the BFSP on a winner (1st) was 9.6 but she said she got it at 7.4 On her staking plan that makes a big difference. Do this over the course of a year and compound it and thats how she done it. If everyone could lay at bookmakers SP we would all be millionaires.Remember that. TRADEMATE What do you mean buddy. |
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The Maria 'System' was invented on EBA to promote EBA.
No more, no less. |
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good thread keep it up chaps
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Lay King
I was assuming you were a layer by your username. If you do lay do you lay one horse in a race or a number of horses. Your analysis of the Maria Thread is very good. Regards Trademate |
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Hi TheLayKing,
Great comments however if I could just answer some of them... "You can ignore everything on a horse and select just 1 out of a race with more than 10 runners and you have a good chance you will not get the winner." I have to disagree with you a little on this, you can't lay anything over 11 therefore that could reduce your potential picks to 3 or 4 not 1 out of the 10 runners. I also agree with you that there is a huge amount of maths in it also but I do think you do have to look at the horse you are selecting. "Now IF you make sure you are getting on below BFSP you will prift as long as your S/R is high enough.It does not matter about the horse,jockey,trainer ect.It is all mathmatics that she used." I agree in principle with what you are saying but I am not 100% sure that ALL of Maria's selections were less than SP? "It suprised me that NO one asked for proof in the whole thread that went on for a year." I agree and I see no reason why she couldn't put her lay prices up before racing and not after! "Think about this... IF it was that good it would have been replicated.." Remember all she put in the public domain was the staking plan and for me that is excellent. The problem I am having at present is the selections!! "Go and look on massey site and see how she does with lays now.." I will do. "As long as your Average odds & S/R is high enough you will profit.END of." Toally agree. "I think it was one big con like someone else has said.Go on massey site and ask her questions.. She will baffle you with maths and go on about value.. You WONT get a straight answer. And if you DARE to upset her you will get banned.She is a Mod on there as well." Everyone is entitled to their opinion mate, I don't know if it was real or not and I certainly don't want to call anyone a con artist or similar. I want to believe it was real but I don't know (Bit like Santa Claus I suppose!!) "She would NEVER be able to replicate that again as too many folk are now wise to that.Screenshots would be asked for. prices would be checked etc etc. Sat the BFSP on a winner (1st) was 9.6 but she said she got it at 7.4 On her staking plan that makes a big difference. Do this over the course of a year and compound it and thats how she done it." I am not sure about this, I can give you screenshots showing you how I make £;1000 per day (I don't by the way) but Screenshots mean nothing and can easily be produced with some basic Photoshop skills. I know many people go on about the prices that Maria got her selections at but I have also experienced this just today I laid back to back winners at much shorter than the BFSP. This does happen especially if you are laying early doors, however this is not the biggest problem. The biggest problem is consistently picking the right selections at < 11. As long as you are doing that then the price for me is of secondary importance. |
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That's just average sh!te, but you've fecked the smart minds on here into a knothole.
Not difficult. |
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Price is All Important over time , Toma . Days like you had today you can't avoid losing on, and a day when you lay no winners will be a winning day regardless of how high you layed the losers. But over thousands of bets wether you got 5% better, 5% worse or 15% worse than SP on average will make all the difference.
So what is needed is to lay at value prices, which can be acheived either by an analysis of the Form, and based on that a judgement on which horses are significantly shorter odds than they should be, which, if accurate, will be succesful over time. Or ..... an analysis of the market, from which you can deduce when a horse has moved too far in from its correct price , or weak in the market and is going to move up to its true odds .Maybe Maria was able to do the latter, or else she was just aftertiming the prices .Certainly i agree with LayKing that she was not studying horses; the stuff about Sire's winning distances etc is just waffle used as a smokescreen to what the real method was. Maria always seemed to be under or no more than 6-7% above SP and if you can Lay at Bookies SP , no selection method is required, pinsticking would work fine. Bookies bet to so high over 100% that even laying 5-7% bigger than them - and paying commission - would be profitable. I like the way you set out your results on the site Toma, very neatly done .Hope you have some good days coming up. |
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Hi Tobermory, thanks for your comments they are very helpful. Please understand that I am not saying that price isn't important what I am saying is in my opinion it is secondary to selection. Also, please don't think I am saying I would be happy to lay a 5/2 shot at 6/1 because obviously I wouldn't and I think I have shown that I do often get prices less than industry SP let alone BFSP.
As I mentioned previously in this thread the average lay price for my losing selections in April was 5.6 and the average returned industry SP on my losing selections was 5.2. So I am not to far away on that score. However, regardless of the odds I am laying at if I select to many losers then I am going to lose even if I am getting them at SP or BFSP. Which is why 90% (the first part of my process)of my time is spent on identifying the selections I don't even start worrying about the prices until I have identified the selection. Once I have the selection I then have to make the decision about the price!! Sometimes I have a RP SP of around 4/1 about something I really fancy to get beat but then when I look at it on Betfair it is 9.0 to lay that is therefore dropped. There are other times when a selection is around 3/1 and I look on Betfair and it is 3.5. I am suspicious at the low price but think I have done my research right so I am happier to lay at 3.65 rather than the 3.5 on offer as it is in the second (.6 of stake lay) Maria price bracket. This way if I am correct and it gets beat I get a smaller return but if I am wrong I don't have as much liability. As I was expecting a price nearer 4.0 I am still (in my opinion) getting value! Bottom lne for me though is selection first then price. I am not saying that is the correct way to do it but it is my way??? |
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Toma
Bad day yesterday. However if you are going to run this long term, days like yesterday will happen. losses can be difficult to cope with. Look at the long term. You probably need to run this for a year to get an overall picture. Regards Trademate |
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Hi Trademate, I 100% agree with you I don't think anything like this can be called successful until it has run over the course of a full calendar year!
However, another losing day today and the Maria rule of 35% less than the bank may kick in and that to me is a warning sign that I am not capable of completing the job and rather than just blow the rest of my £500 I might have to think about calling it a day and at least taking something out of 6 weeks hard work! Maybe enough left to take the family out for a bag of chips or an ice cream (the way I am going!). Lets hopw it doesn't come to that and we have a better day, we are due a little bit of luck. |
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Guys, your laying too high, 5.6 if it wins will take you 5 bets to recover!!!!!
better to lay the favs under 2/1, only way to profit from Laying long term, I wish you luck but personally believe Maria was a fraud, why hasn't it been repeated?? good luck today guys |
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Hi lukeyboy, I actually think 5.6 is fine as an average lay price (Does anyone know what Maria's average lay price was?). Because of the staking plan with Maria it would only take 3 (
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Sorry Lukeboy, this brilliant new forum cut me off....
I had written another essay to answer your reply, but basically I have laid 473 selections in 27 days and found 68 winners (losers for me). Giving me an 85.62% strike rate meaning that 5.6 average lay price returns me a profit (I had all the figures in to back that up etc. ) I also wondered if anyone had an average lay price for the original Maria system? |
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Hi Toma, I hope it continues for you m8
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