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The Maria Laying System
The Maria Laying System
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Replies: 449
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2/2
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2/3... ok, now only loosers! :D
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left whipma as came in.
if they are backe din heavily or drift heavily then i am leaving .... |
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leaving the next one as backed in.
could still get beat but a go way of avoiding the winners in the long run... |
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backed and wins.
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layed nepotism in hope that even though came in a tad that the money was not down....
beat that is me done for the day. thanks as always toma. really appreciated i will check the last 4 results later and hope they get beat. |
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Not a good day today, I wasn't sure about today and of course now I wish I had swerved it. All poor selections today only a couple close to SP and NONE under it. Very lucky it didn't cost us more.
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Toma
Not a good today. Today was a day discipline should have come into play. When you couldn't get your original selections matched it was a case of leave them alone. It can happen any punter or layer and discipline is just as important as finding selections and money management skills. Still you have done very well up to now so keep it going. I really hope you succeed to show that it can be done. Regards Trademate |
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Thanks for that Trademate and you are 100% correct. Fortunately, a cheap but valuable lesson learnt today. I am sure there will be losing days (I am not that naive) but todays defeat I think was avoidable.
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toma bad start but still hope of a profit. i managed to lay sweet lightning at a shorter price then 9.6 which is one positive but i should have swerved as it was obviously faniced.
Managed to avoid all the other ones that have been backed in and won.... anyway some good discipline and no chasing after the first ... |
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Hi Jonny, not a good start at all unlucky with the second just got done by a snotty nose!
Still happy when they go our way so have to take the good with the bad.... |
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OMG this is the day I guess we knew was coming but just didn't want to see it. Losing day already and just the 13 selections to go..
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Toma i have kept my discipline and if the last 7 get beat then i think it will be a small profit today....
9/12 i do this with the greyhounds as well and had a 100% strike rate laying this morning so i have a chance of a + day.... keep the faith toma |
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Greyhound Racing: £83.13 | Horse Racing: -£124.90 | Tote: | Total P&L: -£41.77
Horse Racing Showing 1 - 11 of 11 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Horse Racing / Chest 6th May : 1m2f Hcap 06-May-10 17:05 06-May-10 17:12 25.88 Horse Racing / Newt 6th May : 2m3f Claim Hrd 06-May-10 16:55 06-May-10 17:04 43.18 Horse Racing / Good 6th May : 2m Hcap 06-May-10 16:45 06-May-10 16:50 25.88 Horse Racing / Chest 6th May : 6f Hcap 06-May-10 16:30 06-May-10 16:37 43.13 Horse Racing / Good 6th May : 6f Hcap 06-May-10 16:10 06-May-10 16:14 25.88 Horse Racing / Chest 6th May : 5f Mdn Stks 06-May-10 15:55 06-May-10 16:01 25.88 Horse Racing / Newt 6th May : 2m3f Hcap Hrd 06-May-10 15:45 06-May-10 15:54 -126.43 Horse Racing / Chest 6th May : 7f Hcap 06-May-10 15:15 06-May-10 15:20 -95.03 Horse Racing / Good 6th May : 1m1f Class Stks 06-May-10 15:00 06-May-10 15:04 17.27 Horse Racing / Chest 6th May : 1m4f Grp3 06-May-10 14:45 06-May-10 14:52 25.88 Horse Racing / Chest 6th May : 1m2f Hcap 06-May-10 13:45 06-May-10 13:50 -136.42 |
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Bad day toma but we have to acceot it will happen.
I have been saved by the greyhounds. I feel exhausted. May swerve the last 5 lays. Hope the get beat. Will be laying them again tomorrow Toma so thanks for your hard work.  |
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Greyhound Racing: £217.81 | Horse Racing: -£209.00 | Tote: | Total P&L: £8.81
Horse Racing Showing 1 - 13 of 13 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Horse Racing / Good 6th May : 1m4f Mdn Stks 06-May-10 17:50 06-May-10 17:58 -109.98 Horse Racing / Newt 6th May : 3m2f Hunt Chs 06-May-10 17:25 06-May-10 17:39 25.88 Horse Racing / Chest 6th May : 1m2f Hcap 06-May-10 17:05 06-May-10 17:12 25.88 Horse Racing / Newt 6th May : 2m3f Claim Hrd 06-May-10 16:55 06-May-10 17:04 43.18 Horse Racing / Good 6th May : 2m Hcap 06-May-10 16:45 06-May-10 16:50 25.88 Horse Racing / Chest 6th May : 6f Hcap 06-May-10 16:30 06-May-10 16:37 43.13 Horse Racing / Good 6th May : 6f Hcap 06-May-10 16:10 06-May-10 16:14 25.88 Horse Racing / Chest 6th May : 5f Mdn Stks 06-May-10 15:55 06-May-10 16:01 25.88 Horse Racing / Newt 6th May : 2m3f Hcap Hrd 06-May-10 15:45 06-May-10 15:54 -126.43 Horse Racing / Chest 6th May : 7f Hcap 06-May-10 15:15 06-May-10 15:20 -95.03 Horse Racing / Good 6th May : 1m1f Class Stks 06-May-10 15:00 06-May-10 15:04 17.27 Horse Racing / Chest 6th May : 1m4f Grp3 06-May-10 14:45 06-May-10 14:52 25.88 Horse Racing / Chest 6th May : 1m2f Hcap 06-May-10 13:45 06-May-10 13:50 -136.42 |
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I think it was a bad day for me to follow as I follow since yesterday
 Just trying to learn sth. about horses following you as I have no clue, just trying to find out laying criteria. and I think you're doing a great job though. So hopefully better day will come for me  |
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I think I would just put it all down to Chester. Seems to produce some results that are difficult to forsee.
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I fail to see what Chester has to do with it. Either the system works or it does not. The system needs to be tried over quite a substantial period for evaluation.
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Worst day since we started but it was always going to happen at some point. The important thing is to continue as normal and use the same approach tomorrow as I did today and every other day.
To be honest but for a Nose and a Short Head we would have been okay today so not going to beat myself up to much. We have had a few short winners ourselves so we just paid them back today. Disappointing but we know we won't win every day...as long as we win in the long run that’s all that matters ! Ratchet system in place for tomorrow same stakes as today. I'm away on the drink now  so see you tomorrow! |
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Well done JonnyG for managing to make aprofit out of today.
Sorry XGURKX but we will get it back! Spud and Belarussianborderbaitch...I hear what you are both saying all these systems do need to proe themselves over the long haul. That is what I am tryign to do here to see if what Maria did can be replicated. However, all we got from Maria was the staking plan the selections are my own and not part of any system? All the best fellas and thanks for the feedback...speak to you all later! |
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i'll be back tomorrow
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Just keep sticking to your methods everyday. Losing days will happen. Keep taking a long term view.
Regards Trademate |
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was just looking at maria and day 269 7 losses from 28 so still hope.
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Have to take days like that Toma, all about the long term.
I've layed horses in 417 races since i started my method on March 3rd , doing well overall ( £100 start bank, up to £268.26 now ) but this is what happned to me yesterday........ 7:40 Roseneath 6.4 WON 7:55 Martha's Kinsman 7 WON 8:10 Stage Acclaim 7 WON Amazingly in the very next race i layed Distant Thunder @8 and it was matched @1.21 in running but was beaten. |
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Jonny, I have also been looking back at Maria's thread for inspiration and I have found many days worse days than 269....
Day 25 = Reported as 69.23% (9/13) Was actually 66.66% (8/12) Average odds 5.9 (Maria counted a NR as a selection) Day 44 = 66.6% (10/16) Average odds 8.1 Day 47 = 70% (7/10) Average odds 7.8 Day 50 = 60% (9/15) Average odds 7.5 Day 55 = 72% (8/11) Average odds 7.3 Day 58 = 66.6% (4/6) Average odds 7.2 Day 59 = 66.6% (6/9) Average odds 7.6 Day 269 was a good day compared to those Maria achieved a 75% rate on day 269!! Today we got 73.68% with average odds of 6.01. We had 73.33% on day 1 again with similar average odds of 5.93. These are our worst days so far! Maria's average lay odds seem to be around the 7.3 (approx 6/1) area which is maybe why she kept asking for a better than 85% success rate (6/1 = 14.29% chance). 100% - 14.29% = strike rate above 85.71% = PROFIT! We are currently running at 6.58 (11/2) average odds with a overall strike rate of 87.38%. At these average odds a strike rate of anything over 84.62% should result in a profit! In a nutshell I think there are undoubtably going to be bad days BUT as long as the overall strike rate is around 85% and the average odds do not grow above 6/1 we should make a profit! Basically it is just what Maria told us! |
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Tobermory, thats brilliant mate well done. May I ask what sort of average odds and strike rate have you seen from your 417 selections?
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Hello Toma
Just hope today is TWICE AS NICE to make up for yesterday. |
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Like the play on words Jonny.....
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we were lucky webbow got blocked off
 deserved some luck. all evens out in the end. |
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Toma,
You seem to have ommitted the ( severe effect of ) commission from your calculations above. Your average odds of 11/2 = a break even strike rate of 84.62% but at a commission rate of 5% you will pay 4.23% of returns in commission. Therefore laying average odds of 11/2 requires a strike rate of 88.85% to break even. Or am I being dumb ? Very best of luck with it. |
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*but at a commission rate of 5% you will pay 4.23% of returns in commission.
Sorry that should read.... but at a commission rate of 5% you will pay 4.23% of strike rate in commission. |
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was in queue laying inagh river 3.9 but not taken. layed 4.7 so cost me an extra £20 or so.
never mind... |
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Jonny your right we deserved that and I think we are still owed some!
Hi Escapee, great shout...commission is a huge factor and I do account for it in my financial calculations. I was really just referring yesterday to winners v selections percentages based on average odds. However, I am sure you are correct and at level stakes I am sure your calculations would be 100% correct. Isn't this where Maria's staking plan is the key...Last month I achieved an 88.48% strike rate(wins to slections) with 292 winners from 330 selections. This returned a bank increase of 78.84% (after commission). |
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I think I jinxed you all
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Stick to Bundesliga 2 Gurk!! Keep at it Toma, it will turn back for you.
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Bundesliga 2 finished
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Not at all XGURKX but I must admit it is tough going at the minute! If it was easy where would the fun be in that
 I just have to keep my head down and continue to do what I was doing last month.As hard as it is |
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Toma, I have only been following you over the last 3 days. One thing I have noticed is that more often than not, your selections do trade a lot lower at some point in running.
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taken a big hit on roche
other horse went 1.02 layed a big price 11.5 staying disciplined and carrying on... hoping to break even but only a small chance of that. winner was a big steamer before the off. |