Whatever Tomma achieves or does not achieve will have FA to do with 'Maria'.

EBA, got a result.

It was a smoke and mirrors job, no more, no less.

I don't think the staking plan was a crucial factor in the success of that thread.

Laying at such low odds , different staking methods would likely have been as succesful .

Surely the price is paramount Toma? Regardless of the selection process excessive overlay will ensure a loss.

Hi Al Dente,

I agree 100% and you are correct when you say that "excessive overlay will ensure a loss" however in my opinion not as quickly as continually picking Losers (which are winners in the actual race).

Please understand that I am not saying lay something at 8/1 that is clearly a 4/1 shot that is just madness....

My strategy is to identify a selection which I think has good chance of getting beaten in a race....then I go and check the prices avalable to lay the horse.  If the price fits with my  estimated prices then I lay it or I place an order into Betfair to lay it at what I consider to be a value price.  If I think the odds are to high and I have no chance of getting matched at a decent price then I avoid it and move onto the next race.

All I am saying is that finding the loser is (for me anyway, the most important thing).  When you are laying these horses sometimes 7 hours before they run you have to be a market maker rather than a market taker and I put the horses in at prices I think are value lays.  Sometimes I don't get matched before 1pm and therefore they are removed from the system. 

The ones I do get matched and they drift is always nice to see as it helps confidence.  However, of course some get backed and as a result decrease in price which is more scary...BUT I laid that horse at that time for that price for a reason what happens after I am matched is something I don't worry too much about as it is out of my control.

As long as my reason for laying the selection is sound and the price I got at that time in my opinion is good value then I can't really complain.

I can show you many selections I have made that have dropped in price and got beat. I can also show you the massive drifters that win (including 500/1 shots in running etc.)  That is racing and we are playing in an active market so prices are going to fluctuate but as long as you are on the RIGHT selection, the price (in my opinion) is very much of secondary importance.

Hi Toma,

Thanks for the reply. I've been lurking for a while.

Perhaps I am in a different position from you; I realise that you lay hours in advance and to some extent rely upon some drifting and an equal amount shortening. That would worry me through the lack of control.

I lay from 10 to 20 horses daily at this time of year and am delighted to get more than one qualifier layed in each race, always within the three minutes preceding the start and generally from 6.0 up to a max of 11.0; or if the price is say, 11.0 for a 10.0 chance I will enter a "keep" lay at 9.0 to nick a point which generally gets taken in running. If not - well, so bet it.

Have been at this for while and find that it works for me.
Agree that a layer needs at least an 85% strike rate which leaves very little for overlay and commish.

Ratchet is fine but I don't vary the stake according to the odds; find it over rated and stick with max 0.04% of bank layed to risk a max 4% of bank at 11.0.

6.0 risks just 2% of course but then, they tend to win more often.

I wish you every success, but do watch the overlay!

Hi Al Dente,

Thanks for your comments.  Personally, I think the way you are doing it is the best way...i.e laying just prior to the offical start time and leaving some to get matched in play etc.  I think I would have a much better chance of success doing it your way as I could assess the market at certain points and then act accordingly.  Also, leaving lays "in play" is the perfect strategy for front runners etc. to "nick a point".  As you say if they don't get matched then it hasn't cost you anything!!

However, for the purposes of this exercise all I am trying to do is replicate the Maria laying system as closely as I can to her rules.  Which was posting all her selections for the day ahead of the first race and then posting the outcome (results / financials) after the last selections race.

All the best with your lays Al Dente and good luck!

Toma 24 May 10 01:05

"I can show you some of my recent selections where I have laid at 5.7 (9/2ish) and it has gone off at 13.0 (12/1) another one I laid at 11 (10/1) industry SP was 20/1.  I can also show you some that went the other way.  So I have to ask would you cast the same accusations at me."

Prices move. No need to go on the defensive. I've not accused you of anything.

It could not be checked because she was never saying when she had been matched . She just waited til after the race and then claimed to have been matched near to the lowest odds that were matched all day .

Look at this Directorship in the Sandown race just now, that is fairly typical

7.60                   £121             
7.80                £2,878           
8.00               £2,002           
8.20                £1,401           
8.40                £2,158           
8.60                £5,608          
8.80                £2,844           
9.00                £2,546           
9.20                £1,541           
9.40                  £599           
9.60                £676           
9.80                  £660           
10.00                £940          
10.50                £704           
11.00                £120          
11.50                £51           
12.00                £28           
12.50                £15           
13.00                £8           
13.50                £4

Matched at all those odds during the day , easy to say after the event you layed at 7 something but most punters would have layed significantly higher during the day.

It would have been easy enough to let people check as she said she had her bets mostly natched by 12pm , if she had stated which ones , and at what prices when she posted them, then people could have checked if they had been matched at thise odds that early, but seemingly she was not happy for people to be able to do that.

For some, Maria is a wraith.

For people with more than two brain cells, he is ( not a mistake ), a LLT.

'Maria' lied about prices.

No more, no less.

Norma Stitz

Did you check the prices when the Thread was up and running.?

Did you find that the prices were not there regularly.?


Regards Trademate

No response from the 'Maria' apologists.

So, Maria is a fat t w a t from Salford.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

Your obsessed fella, and your gonna make yourself ill

toma...how do u feel ure quest is going?

Hi All...

Amazed to see that this single thread from 5 years ago still manages to raise such passion!

I might if I may inject a few observations - and I was one of those who was actually around at the time, and actually followed her selections for a while. I actually put up a post on that thread on page 137 which highlighted my concerns, and equally defended her. (if any of you are anal enough to check, I'm ChrisUK)

I think I picked up on it around February of 2006, and started laying them a little while later. I did make a few quid from her selections, but... because of the prices I was able to get, I stopped.

In balance though, I can't in all honesty accuse her of cheating the numbers, because, as I said in that post, her figures were acheivable because she was laying to very early prices in the vast majority of times. I too was very suspicious and stated so (more on that in a short while..) but in all honesty, when I broke away from following her selections I was active on another thread that had a couple of very successful systems running... can't remember the name but it hosted Bills 123 lays in it's early days. A lot of those selections and some that I was coming up with myself crossed over with Maria's lays and I was putting money on them quite early, around 10.30 upwards, quite often I was acheiving much better prices than I could ever have got later in the day. Quite often I got it totally wrong too... but it was more the former, it was significant for me to see this first hand. Some systems clearly identify horses especially 2nd and 3rd favs that lose market confidence consistently throughout the day. I also believe that she was giving a few 'big hitters' the headsup before publishing the selections to the thread. I think with significant money being layed it was totally conceivable that this contributed to the prices drifting back in those days, but this is just conjecture really.

To pour a little oil back on the fire... I will say, that on EBA it says I only have one post. This isn't true. I actually spoke further with Maria there, because one of her responses was that the system was safe to follow even at inflated prices... which I countered.. and if I recall she got a bit miffed, which was not my intention. All of that has 'conveniently' disappeared! What is left, although accurate, is fairly watered down. I was a cautious fan, as I still am in many ways.

I will counter here though the argument that she was randomly picking horses. Simply not true. There are several entries on that thread where she clearly gives indications on what some of her filters and selection processes are, and they are essentially the data that good confident layers use.

She did talk a lot about the 'relevant siblings' and sires etc.. which I don't put much weight on, but I know several who do. She did put much weight on the ground and the horses history on that ground and the trip. She had a strong weighting towards draw from what I remember, and if I remember correctly she gave a lot of emphasis on the trainers history, in particular relation to the course and trip.

These are not advanced laying techniques, but it's a solid grounding and she did speak about these elements, and more (it's all there in the thread), so I'm guessing that there was much more that she wouldn't want to be putting up.

In response to the publishing of matched prices, I've got to question whether that would really prove anything... surely you could still just look at the exchanged money and just say you were matched at the best that was matched prior to publishing the selections anyway?

She did also speak of using some trading indicators... i.e. double bottom and double top stress signals. I used to dabble with these tricks when I was trading the sports markets, with varying success mostly for scalping profits in the final 10 minutes when the markets were really lively. If she was able to be watching the markets so closely (as I usually wasn't) there is an added advantage that most people just wouldn't be able to match... I do remember when she pointed them out, that I would be telling and showing several people (who looked down on my horsey activities) the similarities between the sports exchanges and the financial markets.

But who knows, I had suspicions certainly... (especially the early interactions with a contributor on that thread called 'Janis' - that all seemed a bit convenient too me), but like I said, later on when matching those selections, I couldn't totally disagree with her prices.

Anyway... that year of laying sorted me out a few quid that I cashed out and used for a nice holiday for me and the family, and when I came back spent 6 months and my bank stayed at exactly the same level.. so I moved to poker and haven't looked back lol. (until I realised I can now check selections on my iphone and lay from iBetMate and keep an eye on prices without being at a computer and now I might have just caught the bug again).

Don't shoot me down now... I'm after the golden goose too.

Ask questions. If I can remember anything more specifically from the time when it was all happening I will gladly answer

Chris

And P.S. Good Luck Tomo... if anything I did learn from Maria it was to bet conservatively and keep applying that upward pressure, and always think long term

A person on http://uk-betting-tips.co.uk did a thread for 70 days based on Maria's staking plan and in that time went from $300 to $931, before he stopped posting.  He said he was going to post for 365 days, but disappeared after 70 days and hasn't posted since.  I got the feeling he had a fairly large following similar to Maria before he stopped posting.

I remember there were a lot of sceptics about his postings to.  It seems that every successful system will attract a lot of scepticism, which is why most will not post out in the open I suppose.

PianoMan Chris. You were actually around at the time and actually followed her selections for a time and actually put up a post on page 137.

I put up several posts querying the verisimilitude of 'her' prices.

There was no response and all the posts were removed.

PianoMan Chris, you doth protest too much.

Chris,

I wouldn't waste your time. Everyone knows Norma (AKA Mayoman)is still suffering from a bad case of unrequited love, that has left him bitter and twisted. As far as the Maria thread is concerened, its a  different kind of laying Mayo was interested in.

Norma is Mayoman. PMSL.

captainktheacetrader is also Mayoman (AKA Norma), 15 posts and not one of them worth reading. He is a little green man, nothing to do with coming from Mayo, he is simlpy full of envy.