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The Dragon
05 Jun 25 14:58
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Date Joined: 12 Mar 05
| Topic/replies: 58,846 | Blogger: The Dragon's blog
Liverpool favs at 9/4 on here with Arsenal at 5/2 and city at 16/5.

Chelsea and Newcastle around 16/1.

Be interesting to see how transfeers impact on the market..

As it stand im backing Liverpool and laying the Gunners at those prices

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By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 05 Jun 25 15:05
Chelsea at club World Cup, with citeh... whilst arsenal, Liverpool get some holiday

Could be important, but then again might not be,
but one to watch for future.
By:
The Dragon
When: 05 Jun 25 15:10
no idea why united are 6th favs at 36Crazy
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 05 Jun 25 15:22
Man yoo fans doing their lucky 15s, but only finding 3 events...
By:
sofaking
When: 05 Jun 25 17:36
Why are Chelsea at Club World Cup?  They haven't won anything in years...
By:
Ell
When: 09 Jun 25 02:58
You could question why Spurs are in the Champions League ?
They haven't been champions since they won in 1961.
By:
JPSER
When: 09 Jun 25 03:32

Jun 9, 2025 -- 2:58AM, Ell wrote:


You could question why Spurs are in the Champions League ?They haven't been champions since they won in 1961.


Europa champions only 19 days ago. Early onset of dementia?

By:
Ell
When: 09 Jun 25 16:44
Probably the worst Spurs team since the 70's and you consider them champions for winning a second rate cup against 3rd rate opposition.
By:
sofaking
When: 09 Jun 25 17:49

Jun 9, 2025 -- 4:44PM, Ell wrote:


Probably the worst Spurs team since the 70's and you consider them champions for winning a second rate cup against 3rd rate opposition.


Cry more.

By:
The Dragon
When: 13 Jun 25 15:32
liverpool look to be strengthening big time with big signing of weitz and frimpong with more to come apparently

city sighned a couple for arounfd 50 m each

still happy to back liverpool at 9/4 and lay the gooners at 12/5.

gonna be an interesting season for sure
By:
The Dragon
When: 17 Jun 25 19:23
fixtures for the season will be released 9.00 am tomorrow
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 17 Jun 25 19:25
Looks like Newcastle are away Wk 1,home Wk 2
As mackems have world cup rugby match on wk2.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 17 Jun 25 19:32
https://www.premierleague.com/news/4324541?utm_source=x&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=how_the_pl_fixtures_are_made

..
By:
Lifter
When: 17 Jun 25 19:54
I'd be very interested in laying Arsenal for top 2 (maybe top 4) if they fail to make a few big signings
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 18 Jun 25 08:02
Long long way to go, but I'd say Liverpool are worthy favourites. Apart from Trent, the team looks pretty settled. Only realistic moves out are Diaz and Konate who would both bring in big money. Seems to have been really good succession planning with Kerkez and Frimpong, while Wirtz looks a genuine level-upper. Get a decent striker in and it'll have been a very good window. Add to the long rest while City and Chelsea are messing around, then they only need a crisis at Arsenal to have the perfect summer.
By:
The Dragon
When: 18 Jun 25 13:03
liverpool have the cherries , magpies and goobners in first 3 games. challenging start for sure
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 18 Jun 25 13:40
Man yoo start off at home for 9th season in a row.

Arsenal look to have tough start
By:
The Dragon
When: 18 Jun 25 14:02
i agree PP
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 18 Jun 25 14:29
https://theanalyst.com/articles/premier-league-fixtures-2025-26-toughest-easiest-starts

..
By:
The Dragon
When: 18 Jun 25 15:30
thanks yhtl
By:
duffy
When: 18 Jun 25 15:54
The Dragon 05 Jun 25 15:10 
no idea why united are 6th favs at 36Crazy


It's simple, think of it the same as why Leicester weren't favs the year after they won the league but instead were priced up as if it hadn't happened because no matter how bad United were last season, for them to finish that low you have to regard it as a complete outlier, said this before, to go from 15th to 6th for a club like United is miniscule, the market ignores it... but 6th would in itself be a poor finish in a typical year.

I'd expect United to finish at least 6th and also expect that 36 to contract before the season begins.
By:
The Dragon
When: 18 Jun 25 16:03
i admire your optimism duffy. will be very interesting to see how they go this year.
By:
duffy
When: 18 Jun 25 16:17
If I was being optimistic I'd be thinking top 4, truth is, United can have another bad season and still finish 6th.
By:
The Dragon
When: 18 Jun 25 16:21
everything is relative i suppose
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 18 Jun 25 20:05
christ duffy what are you basing your optimism on?


What green shoots have you seen under the new manager to foresee such a turnaround?
By:
duffy
When: 18 Jun 25 20:50
PP,

This is the point I'm trying to make, United finishing 6th is not good, it's sh1te and to achieve that it will not take much improvement at all, no matter how bad they are, 15th is a freak result, the market does not accept it as the norm and to go from 15th to 6th only requires minimal improvement in a couple of areas for a massive improvement overall to be realized, a couple of decent signings will achieve that. If Cunha and Mbuemo both land and they play well that will get top 6 all on its own IMO.
By:
Lifter
When: 18 Jun 25 22:41
Utd finishing 6th with that team would be decent and overperforming, I think. 15th is about right. But yeah, signing Cunha and Mbuemo SHOULD knock them up a few places
By:
duffy
When: 19 Jun 25 00:00
So a top 6 claim by me has been received on here generally as complete madness, with the inference that United will finish a good bit lower...so, people who think that must therefore by definition also believe that sides like Brighton, Bournemouth, Brentford, Fulham, Palace and Forest are highly likely to finish above United, particularly if as Lifter says United only improve by a few places.

So, my question to those people would be, ask yourself then how much would you be willing to lay to an even money bet in a match bet for United to finish higher against each of those sides individually and bare in mind that your argument implies that you believe United will finish below most if not all of those sides.

My guess is that very few people would be comfortable laying United at even money against any of those sides in a match bet and obviously you can say the same for the rest of the league barring the top 6 itself from last season.

It naturally follows then that United are on the periphery of the top 6 and this is what every market you care to look at thinks also.

In reality, assuming the improvement comes that the new signings give hope too, United finishing top 6 has nothing to do with the sides mentioned above, it depends solely IMO on United finishing above one only of Villa, Chelsea or Newcastle, if United beat one of those sides they will finish in the top 6 IMO, and considering the lack of European games versus those sides heavier committments I believe United are odds on to beat at least one of those sides.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 19 Jun 25 00:40
Fair enough

Same question v

Arsenal
Chelsea
Man city
Liverpool
Aston villa
Newcastle
Tottenham.

I think top 6 is a good target but have man utd as likely
top 8,same as Newcastle.

No euro football likely helps, and much depends on what other
teams in that top 8 do.

Would you back man utd top 6 at evens,...


Pretty sure man utd and Tottenham league position last season
was freakish and impacted by knowing the only chance of euro
footy was via europa league. Happily take evs each of them top 10.

Early days.
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 19 Jun 25 08:07
Obviously Liverpool, Arsenal, City, Newcastle, Chelsea and Villa seem a distance ahead of Utd at present. I's be on Spurs to finish higher with a good manager at the helm too. Brighton are a solid top ten team now.


I think top six as an aim for Utd is fine. Optimistic, but no real harm in that in the summer. If the manager doesn't get that, or a good cup run, then he's probably toast so he has to aim for it. I just wonder where the expectation of improvement is coming from, rather than the hope. They've made one signing (who the transfer data nerds aren't keen on), seem to be keen on Mbuemo and wanted Gyokeres, but he doesn't want them. But as it stands it's still the same set of players and manager who finished sixth bottom. There's been literally no improvement under the new guy. You'd expect to see something by now. Tightened at the back. Attack a bit more progressive. Some new kids breaking through. A new signing or two who shows he has an eye for talent. But there's been none of that. New boss but the spine of the team remains Onana-Maguire-Casemiro-Bruno-Hojlund. That's a bottom half spine. And (in my eyes) it's gonna take a lot of surgery to change that. A lot more than Mbuemo.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 19 Jun 25 11:35
Forest got 65 points and Brighton 61

To finnish 7th and 8th

So likely stay top 10,even if man utd, spurs improve past them.


Fulham 54
Palace 51

Solid performers were 11th and 12th and aspire to crack top 10


Brentford,bournemouth 9th and 10th seem to to cashing in

13th Everton 48 points, 14th West ham 43, both again looking to improve

15th man utd 42, wolves 42, spurs 38

Then 3 went down so replace with Leeds burnley and s*nderland
By:
duffy
When: 19 Jun 25 13:29
YHTL, you won't be seeing any evs about United top 10, haven't seen any prices yet but it'll be around 1/5, if you're lucky.

PP, all you've said is correct, but improvement or decline like I've said is not linear, a couple of good signings can make a huge difference that mitigate all the things you've pointed out, 4 or 5 years ago United finished 2nd 5 points ahead of Liverpool, the next year Liverpool beat us by 34 points. Last season Forest were pushing for CL football, this coming year most of us would expect them to struggle and their manager sacked.

The outright market already sees United as a shorter price than Villa for top 6, that is because it realizes that from United to go from 15th to 6th is a tiny step in reality.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 19 Jun 25 13:35
I didn't expect to see it, but you have to be ready for these things.

Bookies know that man utd fans like to put their yankees
on and back team for upcoming season, no need to offer a fair price.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 19 Jun 25 13:42
Top 10 currently 2/9
Top 6 10/11
Win title 33/1
Relegation 25/1
By:
The Dragon
When: 19 Jun 25 13:59
lay top 6 at 10/11 looks the value
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 19 Jun 25 14:02
Bookies price dragon, no option to lay.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 19 Jun 25 14:04
I really don't understand why betfair can't get these meerkat loaded on hear!

Sports book trying to mop up the early cash before letting us have a go.
By:
The Dragon
When: 19 Jun 25 14:19
ok thanks YHTL
By:
The Dragon
When: 19 Jun 25 14:19
id efo be all over that if and when it comes up
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 19 Jun 25 14:26
Yeah, that's the point. These prices are just set up for mug fanboys at this stage. If they had to offer both sides it'd be a different story.
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