Nov 12, 2016 -- 10:18PM, Fatslogger wrote:

Nov 12, 2016 -- 10:08PM, DAN1974 wrote:i cant see a draw at all, no way, not with at least 2 and a half days play left, but at the moment i'm trying to trade this weather, i've backed the draw at 4.3 quite big after trading it for small amounts all day. i'm looking to lay it at around 3.7.That's what I've done, minus the playing around all day, which on reflection is a bit inept of me, although good for you as you'd not have done so well with competition. I've got a 3.8 lay in and like you, don't really believe it will go as low as 3, although I will set up lays at 3 and a bit below in addition to several in the 3s and risk going pretty red on the draw if they get taken.

yep, get this weather trading done and then go red on the draw.

Nov 12, 2016 -- 10:19PM, anxious wrote:

Juice do you think the Aussies still have a chance here ?

I think they do, although they're a very long way behind the game and probably won't win even if they bowl and bat pretty well from here. I'd actually regard them as rather long at current price with the short draw keeping them out but am expecting them to go out first so not touching it for now, despite currently £4K red on them. Fortunately my final Aus lay yesterday at 8s was buyable back at 10.5 so I came into this evening's trading only £3k red so able to take some more draw on.

From their point of view, keep the lead under 150 and score 300 plus, ideally a lot plus on an improving wicket and then hope Starc has a dream start with the new ball and good support from the other quicks. Unless they get a Warner special though, they probably do need all those elements to come in and if the track is improving, it will be tough to get rid of 15 SA wickets for 80 odd fewer runs than they get for their 10. Is Philander badly hurt, do we know?

Nov 12, 2016 -- 10:33PM, jucel69 wrote:

Nov 12, 2016 -- 10:32PM, Fatslogger wrote:Nov 12, 2016 -- 10:19PM, anxious wrote:Juice do you think the Aussies still have a chance here ?I think they do, although they're a very long way behind the game and probably won't win even if they bowl and bat pretty well from here. I'd actually regard them as rather long at current price with the short draw keeping them out but am expecting them to go out first so not touching it for now, despite currently £4K red on them. Fortunately my final Aus lay yesterday at 8s was buyable back at 10.5 so I came into this evening's trading only £3k red so able to take some more draw on. From their point of view, keep the lead under 150 and score 300 plus, ideally a lot plus on an improving wicket and then hope Starc has a dream start with the new ball and good support from the other quicks. Unless they get a Warner special though, they probably do need all those elements to come in and if the track is improving, it will be tough to get rid of 15 SA wickets for 80 odd fewer runs than they get for their 10. Is Philander badly hurt, do we know?he came back on and bowled FS. Got a few more wickets too!

Nul points for paying attention to me! Too much going on.

Nov 12, 2016 -- 11:20PM, jucel69 wrote:

puddles reminds people of SA & WI re unplayable outfield

It's not going to be warm or necessarily even sunny tomorrow. We need to know about the drainage but I'm seriously interested in taking on yet more draw here. It usually drops when cricinfo starts talking about rain, right, because not everyone has the live pictures?

Nov 12, 2016 -- 11:24PM, tomtimtum wrote:

Bit of a hooter

you don't look at the mantelpiece when you're poking the fire

Nov 12, 2016 -- 11:41PM, tomtimtum wrote:

Market is full of people like GrantCKing, can't give it too much credit

Nov 12, 2016 -- 11:36PM, DAN1974 wrote:

Nov 12, 2016 -- 11:31PM, Charkitz wrote:This market was retarded yesterday and it's biblically retarded today. How the **** could last nights draw price not factor in that it was going to be a washout today?If I'd thought markeet hadn't factored todays washout I woulda gonee all in backing 4.5 but didn't think the market could possibly be that stupid!!I would expect draw price to go back out soon when it becomes obvious that draw is still unlikely even with a washout today, so with that in mind draw price will probably go further inwards!Note to self, never again give the market any credit, just pretend it's mickey mouse and donald duck setting the pricestotally agree, you have just got to trade the situation, like i said earlier theres no way i think this will be a draw, but i've been backing it all day.

That's the challenge though: this remains really unlikely to be drawn so the draw price is far too low for the match state but is still likely to shorten a fair way. To be fair to the market, it was obviously pricing in at least a fair bit of rain today but not biblical, whole day lost and potential waterlogged outfield stuff.

Lol at ttt above.