Cricket
Otherwise, Hobart a result venue that should suit SAF as much as Aus. Assuming Rabada isn't rested, Aus look a huge lay.
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Just laid the Draw heavy ish at 2
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I saw the draw around2's pxb and thought what the hell is going on particularly after you said it was a result wicket!
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whats the deal on eain in Hobart pxb? does it come and go? does the pitch drain well?
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Hobart surrounded by mountains is a suprisingly dry place. It gets less rain than Perth. But the Bom is forecasting over a months rainfall in the first 3 days of the Test.
I've got my initial draw backs in and will look to go bigger on Friday if the weather forecast holds. Hobart weather generally drizzly showers, but this is different per the forecast. |
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Yeh weather forecast looks terrible, 30s & 40 mms of rain on some of the days.
Also, the pitches have been pretty flat in recent times |
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Aussie press
 https://www.instagram.com/p/BMim_u9hZDu/ |
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Can't decide whether to get involved or not. Weather looks terrible and draw already shortened to 1.8 after starting at 2.26 yesterday. The weather for the last 2 days seems fine.
Aus lay looks the safest bet to me as SA unlikely to get blown away in a 3-day game at most. They have the batsmen to play for a draw when under the pump, especially in a rain effected game. No way Aus win this. |
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I've greened up and will wait to see how the forecast develops.
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How short is the draw likely to go from here? If we are lucky and drainage good(?) we may get a start on time and a session in at most. Second day weather is terrible. Third day has improved a bit. 4th and 5th day weather has been clear since i started looking ath hobart weather.
Is it a lump on price? Or am i right in saying it should go out once we get some play, and then shorten maybe if the team gets off to a good start? |
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I'm going to wait until Friday before making any more moves. Although wait too long and people see a big mass of rain on the radar and the draw will crash.
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I'm a bit hung up on rain in Hobart is usually showers, and showers don't usually stop play for long in Aus. We may get an on again, off again couple of days, which could well bring wickets.
So I am waiting to see if there is a solid mass of rain. |
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it rained very heavy here today for 30 seconds as I walked the dog, hten sunshine all afyernoon, mountains.......weird huh
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the foggy due
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It rains on about half the days of the year in Hobart, but the average amount is small, about 3mm. So the forecast weather is unusual.
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The draw has come a little way back out today, was actually over 1.8 now corrected back down a touch. I'm tempted to smash it. Even if we get a little over 3 1/2 days play, which seems a high prediction from here, a result isn't that likely and there ought to be very good chances to trade out. The things stopping me are caution on any forecasting of stormy weather, which can be tough to get right and pxb's point about on and off overcast days being good for bowling. Even then, if the ball gets wet it can be hard to get it to do much.
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Doesn't look that biblical on Accuweather, showers up to Saturday afternoon but could be very little time lost, then some heavy rain Saturday afternoon but not terrible Sunday, showers again possible Monday and Tuesday fine. Could see the draw very short indeed if the side batting first start well and / or reasonably amounts of time lost to showers before the downpour but you'd not want to be on the draw at under 2s if there aren't many showers and the side up first gets rolled like SA did first test, especially if the Saturday forecast picks up. Not sure.
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BBC has likely showers Friday, possible Saturday and Monday, a load of rain Sunday and Tuesday fine.
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i know i got confused as well, thats why i asked
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We could get most of the first session Sat in with the rest washed out or the whole day could be a washout. I'd say a toss up at the moment. Looks like some play Sunday, although probably not much.
I'll aim to be all green by the start of Sunday. |
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Australia simply too short for a team that lost to a 10 man SAF, and now have 3 of their first choices out injured.
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http://www.foxsports.com.au/cricket/australia/australia-v-south-africa-reverse-swing-wont-be-a-factor-like-it-was-in-perth/news-story/0f2057613072989ecea71ad4db45dfc2
Pitch very green, but not the green mamba I originally thought. Will help SAF a bit more I think as Starc is a swing it through the air bowler. |
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Definitely a game for the fit meteorologist I can't look for because I'm married. The four weather sites I've got going agree about a very rainy, probably not even a whisper of play Sunday but are offering very different opinions about today (Saturday) and fairly different about Monday too. I've got a decent sized draw back in at 1.8 though, thinking that the market won't have entirely priced in a full lost day. Could still get badly burned if SA out cheaply between showers today as also have an Aus lay but one has to speculate to accumulate.
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FS, BoM aren't very often wrong in forecasts for the next 24 hours.
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This is a retarded market. It's as if it's only just realisng now that there will be play this morning. Even though the forecast was always for rain arriving late Saturday arvo.
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The rain to the north is hours away
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It's always difficult to work out what the market is factoring in in situations like this. Can be very frustrating. I'm going to wait for the toss before making any more moves
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I wont feel that bad if SA are the team in trouble. They never go down easy and in a rain affected game, with 1-0 up, they'll look for safety once in early trouble. And you can back them to bat out 100+ ovvers second dig. But if SA get on top early, i'll be worried as ive backed the draw.
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No webcam for this ground?
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I noticed some were referring to Accuweather and BBC weather. BoM uses higher resolution models over Aus. It's debatable if they are more accurate, but they are more precise. The 24 hour accuracy mainly results from other factors.
Also note the Hobart radar isn't very good to the north because of the mountains. |
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So will there be any play today ?
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K cheers for that
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