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Australia v South Africa - 2nd Test at Hobart

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By:
jucel69
When: 13 Nov 16 00:37
11.30am "Some big puddles have formed on the edge of the covers. It does not look good," says Firdose.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 13 Nov 16 00:37
Today has been trailed as a washout for ages so is possible the market may stall at 3.6 or so but then if that were true, it ought not to have moved much first thing ether.
By:
berger23
When: 13 Nov 16 00:38
The draw seems to have stabilised - is this worrying??
By:
Fatslogger
When: 13 Nov 16 00:40

Nov 13, 2016 -- 12:38AM, berger23 wrote:


The draw seems to have stabilised - is this worrying??


A lot of today left with no play for it to move back down. I'm slightly concerned but not worried.

By the way, I'm considering starting a thread on general trading principles. Obviously the key stuff is on the match threads but they can get a bit busy so some distilled stuff might be useful. If people aren't interested it will do what all dud threads do and fade away.

By:
berger23
When: 13 Nov 16 00:42
No play for it to move back down??
By:
Fatslogger
When: 13 Nov 16 00:51

Nov 13, 2016 -- 12:42AM, berger23 wrote:


No play for it to move back down??


As in I think there will be a further market reaction to more rain and no play, resulting in the draw price dropping. It's possible that the market has already factored this in but I don't think it will entirely have done so.

By:
the whizz kids
When: 13 Nov 16 01:24
11.30am "Some big puddles have formed on the edge of the covers. It does not look good," says Firdose.
Peter: "As a local in Hobart, when the rain comes in from the east then it will set in for the day. Anyone holding out hope of play today, sorry to say forget it, it won't happen. "
Lakshitha: "In Melbourne, it can rain cats and dogs all of a sudden for 30 minutes with heavy winds, and the rest of the day will be full of sunshine as if nothing happened. Looks like Hobart is not in the same category!
By:
the whizz kids
When: 13 Nov 16 01:26
Bibical Big price draw.LaughLaugh
By:
berger23
When: 13 Nov 16 01:30
the draw definitely not going to drop any more
By:
berger23
When: 13 Nov 16 01:31
should have layed all red ff at 3.7
By:
berger23
When: 13 Nov 16 01:39
so the market had more or less factored the rain into the draw odds.
By:
the whizz kids
When: 13 Nov 16 02:41
Factored in of course but draw will hit a lot lower as will Aus price. I was looking for around 12s on Aus as they should hit around 3.5-4s at some point.
By:
jucel69
When: 13 Nov 16 02:56
Assessment in 5 mins, probably call it off for the day
By:
the whizz kids
When: 13 Nov 16 03:02
Green screen, It's been a while. Where have you been my little green.LaughLaugh
By:
the whizz kids
When: 13 Nov 16 03:02
£90LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
By:
jucel69
When: 13 Nov 16 03:05
abandoned for the day
By:
RP79
When: 13 Nov 16 03:07
Will the draw go down now? Or has it already been factored in?
By:
jucel69
When: 13 Nov 16 03:08
who knows!?
By:
pxb
When: 13 Nov 16 04:06
Just woken up from a nap. Looks like we didn't get another run down. Still I made quite a bit.

Tomorrow morning still looks a bit iffy with maybe a shower or 2.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 13 Nov 16 04:15
Oops, screwed that one up.
By:
jucel69
When: 13 Nov 16 04:58
All that weather has broken up really quickly.
Should be fine for an early start tomorrow
By:
GRANTCKING
When: 13 Nov 16 16:10
pxb • November 12, 2016 11:55 PM GMT
20 minutes after the scheduled start and the draw has already hit 3.5.

No need to thank me chaps. But I'm pretty good on the psychology of markets.


pxb • November 13, 2016 12:03 AM GMT
I expect the run down to 3 after lunch, when people recognise no prospect of play today.


pxb • November 13, 2016 4:06 AM GMT
Just woken up from a nap. Looks like we didn't get another run down. Still I made quite a bit.


draw now 5.7, yes u sure are good at the psychology of markets GrinGrinGrinGrin
By:
DAN1974
When: 13 Nov 16 20:53
the draw price has been drifting all day but i still think its to short !
By:
tomtimtum
When: 13 Nov 16 21:10
Aus price seems too short for me, halved in price since yesterday!
By:
jucel69
When: 13 Nov 16 21:23

Nov 13, 2016 -- 9:10PM, tomtimtum wrote:


Aus price seems too short for me, halved in price since yesterday!


Pitch could be pretty juicy after a day under the covers.
Probably worth laying them when they start batting again, especially if the pitch is still spicy

By:
Tractor
When: 13 Nov 16 21:29
Is Vernon fit after his collision with Smith?
By:
DAN1974
When: 13 Nov 16 21:32
he fecking better be after ive laid the draw.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 13 Nov 16 21:42
Beating myself up for taking on more draw just after going green on SA; for not laying it all and more when stupidly short at 3.4 or so and even more for not bailing on a bad position hours ago. Draw was in the 4s when I woke up and now 8s! Could have been absolutely fine if I'd just jumped on it then. Now utterly screwed, massively if Aus wins, just badly if SA does. Need a really very surprising amount of batting to happen to get out of gaol here. Ah well, lesson on being absurdly greedy thinking the draw would go down to 3s registered. The prices were wrong enough without waiting for them to get significantly more absurdly wrong. Not taking my medicine earlier is inexexcusably bad though. I probably ought to lay my draw green off even now, to be honest but might wait for a couple of overs to get a read on how bad it is.
By:
tomtimtum
When: 13 Nov 16 21:47
Couple of overs with no rain on the horizon and ball zipping all over the place on a juice pitch and that draw will be 10+ and heading in one direction only
By:
DAN1974
When: 13 Nov 16 21:52

Nov 13, 2016 -- 9:42PM, Fatslogger wrote:


Beating myself up for taking on more draw just after going green on SA; for not laying it all and more when stupidly short at 3.4 or so and even more for not bailing on a bad position hours ago. Draw was in the 4s when I woke up and now 8s! Could have been absolutely fine if I'd just jumped on it then. Now utterly screwed, massively if Aus wins, just badly if SA does. Need a really very surprising amount of batting to happen to get out of gaol here. Ah well, lesson on being absurdly greedy thinking the draw would go down to 3s registered. The prices were wrong enough without waiting for them to get significantly more absurdly wrong. Not taking my medicine earlier is inexexcusably bad though. I probably ought to lay my draw green off even now, to be honest but might wait for a couple of overs to get a read on how bad it is.


i did exactly the same last night whilst full of beer, although unlike yourself i did jump on it as soon as i got up so am in a good position, lessons learnt from last night definitely .

By:
GRANTCKING
When: 13 Nov 16 21:53

Nov 13, 2016 -- 9:47PM, tomtimtum wrote:


Couple of overs with no rain on the horizon and ball zipping all over the place on a juice pitch and that draw will be 10+ and heading in one direction only


the match was never going to be a draw

By:
DAN1974
When: 13 Nov 16 21:55
the way this Aussie team play there aint gonna be many draws.
By:
DAN1974
When: 13 Nov 16 21:56
what time is kick off ?
By:
tomtimtum
When: 13 Nov 16 21:59
They gonna start 30 mins early I guess? 11pm?
By:
Fatslogger
When: 13 Nov 16 22:09
Draw back down to 7s briefly. Trading it correctly rather than dazzlingly ineptly would have been quite good this match.
By:
tomtimtum
When: 13 Nov 16 22:33
https://www.instagram.com/p/BMxF2olDoek/

Looks pretty green!
By:
tomtimtum
When: 13 Nov 16 22:57
Good point by Vaughan, the ball 55 overs old already
By:
GRANTCKING
When: 13 Nov 16 22:59
this game might be over 2day
By:
bobweenit
When: 13 Nov 16 23:00
Tom said your all pure mugs for backing the draw so heavily!
By:
tomtimtum
When: 13 Nov 16 23:00
LaughLaugh
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