Cricket
Australia v South Africa - 1st Test at the WACA
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you remembered! I am impressed!
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I tell you now WD, if I faced S F Barnes I would cart him around the park
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I cannot see a declaration, why would they? Wear long spikes
KP was talking about getting the long spikes on. |
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FS, I'm aware of not getting sucked into what I call a Goldilocks target. Enough, but not too many. Doesn't stop me hoping.
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I'm happy to lay Australia balls deep here, if they chase down 400+ then fair enough, i will except the loss. I'm not having them at 4/1, no way. maximum expose for me.
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My position:
Aus: -2 SA: +2 Draw: 0 Australia have often tried to hide their inability to bat long by calling it a 'take the game to the opposition' strategy(when in truth they dont have the batsmen who can dig in and do a faf). Hence I don't see them surviving or faffing about when the target(RRR) becomes too big to be achieved through normal strokeplay. hence, draw is out of question for me(as the final result). My only fear is if the SA bowling becomes ineffetive, Aus might end up reaching a target of 450-500. So do I buy insurance and sacrifice some SA green or let it ride with the thinking that if Aus do win it, its a world reord chase and I don't mind losing to that? Greed or not? |
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I am confident SA shall win.
I made a huge horlicks here and have a big exposure to Aus but the same green on SA and the draw. I think the pitch is offering uneven bounce and there will be reverse. Rabada is a strong young man Big Phil a canny operator. My only fear is Warner going after everything and getting away with it and Smith mauling Maharaj and JP but I really think the pitch will take care of aggressive batting. I don't think Aus can bat 5 sessions. If they do they win the game. Whilst not happy with my exposure through stupidity I am confident Aus get bowled out. Dan is right but this has been a crzy match! |
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yep go back to cardiff last year when they needed 400+ to win. was a dodgy forecast for day 5 (in fact it rained all day) yet they allowed themselves to be bowled out long before the close on day 4 even after warner got them to 100/1. priority had to be just bat out day 4 and hope for a deluge but it's just not in their nature
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Dan1974.
agree with you 100%. In the history of test cricket the most successful record test match run chase is 419. no way Aussies are winning this match. pitch is cracking and already signs of uneven bounce. I am laying Aussies. If they pull it off fair play to them but its not going to happen. |
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What a day that was erased all red and am all set to turn a profit here, that Hillary has tightened in next president means everything is fina and dandy again!.....If I get a chance to lay Saffers real low I'll prob take it.
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Chasing 430 and Warner out early and then a Saffers lay of 1.1 .....something along those lines that would be fine!
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FS, I hear what you say, but I think SAF batting past lunch is very unlikely. The big risk is Warner and Marsh get a good fast start and get the RRR down to where steady batting makes the chase achievable with a large amount of luck. And I can see the draw going quite short.
As others have noted Aus don't do (can't do?) blockathons. So a result either way IMO. |
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I'm the only one who thinks Aus have a real chance here.
There is no way they will let the spinner bowl like he did in the first innings. Aus have 5 capable bowlers and they went almost two sessions without a wicket. If Aus do that it will be at 4 runs an over & that would break the back of any run chase. The pitch is playing a few tricks but it's exaggerated movement that is unlikely to get an edge. Cooler today which will help the SA bowlers. Just going to have a cheeky bet on Aus when they start batting again, 50/0 and they will be 2s!! |
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I'm the only one who thinks Aus have a real chance here.
I think they have a slim chance, but rather slimmer than the current price. But market will certainly over-rate their chances if Warner and Marsh get a good start, as well they might. As they say; Records are records for a reason. |
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Ill back them at about 8s.................
soldier field will be forever green.......................AWESOME...... |
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Although, the circumstances for a large successful run chase don't occur that often, and they do appear to be in place here; enough time, decent pitch, good batting side and not so good bowling (perhaps?).
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I think they have got a chance PXB, but not a 25% chance, which is why i am happy to lay. Betting is all about finding value and this is a prime example of it.
Trading is different though, i can understand trading the Aussie price as it will undoubtedly contact if they have a good start. good luck |
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contract
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Just reading in the Sydney Herald that Steyn may bat. It's his right shoulder so I suppose he could just play a defensive block if QDC is still in.
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I also think they have a chance which I why i
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^Trigger Happy^ ......plan on laying Saffers low in the chase, it's the amount of time Aus will have to do than makes it doable.
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Dan, there is a saying,
Markets make value. Which certainly applies for a trader like me. Not so much, if you are betting on the outcome. I actually think A SAF back is a pretty safe value bet at the current price, but we could see some big volatility on the way. |
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Have finally gone in and layed Australia. Their price is remarkably short given the match situation. Surely SA can set up a chase of over 400 which ought to be enough. Bed now and wake up for the last session of the day.
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On a different topic, has anyone seen where I can get odds on 5-0 India in the forthcoming series?
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The ball is unbelievably soft!
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Imagine a broken bowling finger for one of the saffer's bowlers!
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Aus's odds are unbreakable!
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Aleem Dar has gone at the game! Never looked out from the first view
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I think you guys are on crack! same as Warney. Doesn't understand why SA don't have a slog, get 450 lead and declare before lunch!
I don't think the pitch will support chasing 450. It is playing well right now and with a soft ball all seems fine but it will wear more today. I think as Juce says the real danger will be if they suffer another injury to a pace bowler. An early wicket is still pretty important. The time left is also important. Aussie do play aggressively but if there is too much time left it will more likely stress SA. Right now they have 6 sessions, 66 runs a sessions, 450 in 5 is 90 runsa session. That is a harder task but obviously still quite possible. If Aussie have to fight a rear guard the spinners become more dagerous as they can afford men around the bat. There is no way SA will declare with just 2 fast bowlers! Not before lunch anyway. 500 over 5 sessions is much more realistic dec if they get anywhere near that Everything going against Aus right now  |
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Can't the comms get it through their thick skulls that Faf is not going to declare. He is scared to death of Warner, and quite rightly so!
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Warner is like Sehwag, can take the game away in a session.
I remember a game where India played England and Sehwag went beserk and India chased down 350+ in the 4th innings at a canter. |
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I think you guys might be better off backing the draw for a lay back!
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380 odd and the game was over in the last session 0f the 4th day as he hit 80 odd and India were left chasing left than 280 on the final day. Sachin got a 100.
Beatiful shot form QDK! |
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Got to turn the volume off listening to this bile. BAVUMA is their first change bowler ffs! They will be conservative
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