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*** Arkle Chase ***

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Replies: 358
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 10 Dec 18 15:15
* Mullins first string.
By:
duffy
When: 10 Dec 18 15:17
I'm still waiting for VDR to win a decent handicap hurdle over 2 milesCry
By:
foxy
When: 10 Dec 18 15:18
paterson92

earlier on the thread i suggested hardline was and interesting one and felt he would make a better chaser than hurdler ,for voix du reve to beat him the way he did at punchestown makes it to my eyes the best performance by any 2m novice chaser this season,he was not to bad at galway either.25/1 very fair indeed good call and good luck.
By:
sageform
When: 26 Dec 18 16:22
Mengli Khan another to drop off the list. How good might Le Richebourg be?
By:
differentdrum
When: 26 Dec 18 21:22
Sadly, I am on Le Richebourg at a big price for the JLT. He will almost certainly get the dual entry but this race looks favourite now. He was impressive today and on good ground he is a pretty decent horse. He didn't get optimum conditions too many times over hurdles. Nice form boost for Delta Work.

Paloma Blue runs tomorrow but I have as good as written him off. He was awful on chase debut. Didn't want to have a cut at the fences at all. Just clinging to the straw that he took a couple of runs over hurdles and they might somehow dump the jock.
By:
irishone
When: 26 Dec 18 22:47
On le richelbourg as well
but the bet now is VDR
25\1 is massive , needs sun ,good and the extra 4f
By:
Autocue
When: 27 Dec 18 13:27
Kalashnikov disappointing today. Battled on well under pressure but looks like he lacks the class to win the Arkle.
By:
sageform
When: 27 Dec 18 13:27
now Kalashnikov smashed up at Kempton. Yet another ante post market thrown in the air over the holiday. I would still just favour Lalor at the moment.
By:
ben96
When: 27 Dec 18 13:29
kalashnikov beaten still couldn't have dynamite dollars at Cheltenham come March don't see him getting up the hill. If decent ground you would have to still side with Lalor given he has done it at Cheltenham. Really is open this year no star.
By:
impossible123
When: 27 Dec 18 14:01
I think it was an over-reaction by bookies after one good run post a disappointing opening run of the season. And unless the left-hand Cheltenham track helps to get the best out of Kalashnikov he'd have no chance winning this race after a disappointing run today (right-hand Kempton track) behind Dynamite Dollars receiving 5lbs; the Irish ones Mengli Khan, Getabird and Le Richebourg are no better on hurdle form, in my opinion.

Over to you, Lalor..hope the ground is decent come Jan when he next runs.
By:
differentdrum
When: 27 Dec 18 19:53
Always thought Kalashnikov was too short. It is very difficult to win Grade 1's at the Festival. You are putting a lot of faith in a combination who have one good horse between them.

From what you could see he was never travelling particularly well and was readily brushed aside. Quickish ground at Cheltenham and he could really struggle for pace. It could also put more pressure on his jumping which looked pretty poor today.

Both Kalashnikov and Lalor have been trumpeted as 'people's horses' but both have now stepped up in grade and been found wanting.

Paloma Blue won today but it is beyond me how bookmakers could trim his price. Unless De Bromhead finds some magical guru to work on his jumping - clearly he hasn't corrected anything himself - then I wouldn't take 200/1. It will be some placing to find another chase he can actually win.
By:
impossible123
When: 27 Dec 18 20:21
Connections of Kalashnikov are keeping their options open as the horse is entered for the JLT too; the Arkle will test his jumping to the limit especially on quickish ground. On the other hand his conqueror today Dynamite Dollars was easily brushed aside by Lalor on good ground at Cheltenham but turned the table when it was bad ground - both races were on level weight.

Dynamite Dollars had been under-rated. If bad ground prevails at the Festival I cannot see either Lalor or Kalashnikov winning on level weight; if good ground Lalor would be the one for me regardless of the Irish contingent.
By:
irishone
When: 27 Dec 18 22:01
Regardless of the irish contingent ....

LUV IT Laugh
By:
Movewiththetimes
When: 28 Dec 18 02:43
Arkle on first day gtd to be perfect ground
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 31 Dec 18 19:54
Arkle on first day gtd to be perfect ground

Well, I wouldn't quite say 'guaranteed'...
By:
sageform
When: 31 Dec 18 20:07
Unlikely to be faster than good/soft on the first day but it could easily be softer if there is plenty of rain.
By:
impossible123
When: 31 Dec 18 21:27
I'd not be surprised if connections of Kalashnikov opted for the JLT similarly Mengli Khan. Both looked outpaced over 2m.
By:
TimmyRiggins
When: 31 Dec 18 21:39
Think Kalashnikov will go JLT, unless it's a bog.
By:
impossible123
When: 01 Jan 19 15:25
Defi Du Seuil (DDS) looked 20f may stretch his stamina to the limit as he was outstayed. If DDS goes for this race the JLT could be an easier race to win, and a better option for Kalashnikov too, I believe.
By:
sageform
When: 01 Jan 19 19:20
I would certainly bring Defi back to 2 miles next time. It was only 2.3 at Exeter.
By:
impossible123
When: 01 Jan 19 20:01
I think connections of Defi Du Seuil have a conundrum ie risk getting outpaced in The Arkle or outstayed in The JLT unless his jumping is consistently swift and accurate as some of the other Arkle probables especially on good ground; softish could play into his hand. Similarly,  Kalashnikov.
By:
differentdrum
When: 01 Jan 19 20:34
If Le Richebourg is going Arkle then I can't see Defi Du Seuil doing likewise. It would be a waste not to split them.
By:
irishone
When: 01 Jan 19 23:07
Think you will find defi won his two most valuable races on good going.
By:
impossible123
When: 02 Jan 19 17:43
DDS won on soft, good to soft and good last couple of seasons over 16/17f; the going on saturday at Cheltenham (20f) was good to soft. He was going better than Lostintranslation and looked likely to win as he liked until he ran out of puff at the business end. I must admit it was a surprise to me and no doubt most watchers too; his stamina gave way, I firmly believe.

If running in the JLT over 20f at the Festival the same thing is more likely to happen too.
By:
duffy
When: 06 Jan 19 16:52
Both LR and DDS look like Arkle horses though, they've both displayed that the 2 miles will suit, at the moment either of these two would be my fancy in the race, personally I think LR should be fav.
By:
Quevega06
When: 06 Jan 19 21:39
Yeah Duffy I'm thinking the same Le Richebourg was unlucky against Delta Work whilst pulling hard throughout then improved again for the drop back in trip
By:
sageform
When: 07 Jan 19 13:11
Not surprised he doesn't quite stay 2.5. He beat stayers at Exeter and even then Topofthegame was closing fast from 2 out. And that was over 2 miles 3f.
By:
impossible123
When: 12 Jan 19 15:56
DDS is wanted here, not in the JLT (matched at 19.5); JP could be double-handed here.
By:
Hibore
When: 13 Jan 19 21:03
I still think there is some value @14/1 with Mengli Khan. He didn’t look quite right in himself last time and if returning to form next time out could be as low as 6/1. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt as I think Cheltenham will suit him down to the ground.
By:
impossible123
When: 13 Jan 19 21:17
If the ground comes up soft or softer Lalor could be absent, and in come DDS and Kalashnikov, and vice versa. And Mengli Khan could be in the picture too as he was outpaced last time, I believe.
By:
Trueblue82
When: 26 Jan 19 14:18
Hi folks, new to the forum. I seem to have missed some news regarding getabird and the arkle. Appears to no longer be in the betting. Does anybody know why?
By:
impossible123
When: 26 Jan 19 15:24
Must admit I haven't come across anything untoward about Getabird; he's neither entered here nor the JLT. Could be saved for Punchestown.
By:
impossible123
When: 26 Jan 19 15:30
I meant Aintree.
By:
Trueblue82
When: 26 Jan 19 23:28
Odd isn't it, seems to have gone under the radar and nobody picked up on it. Didn't think he was totally without chance either
By:
differentdrum
When: 29 Jan 19 10:46
Pricewise has put up Le Richebourg and Paloma Blue.

I have backed both (Paloma Blue was my first ante-post bet) but I now view them as poles apart.

I would have Le Richebourg as favourite and the most likely winner. He looks a very good jumper but you can't take it for granted that Barry won't conjure a mistake out of him. Let's hope not.

Paloma Blue hasn't been the same horse since last year's Festival. After his chasing debut I couldn't have him at any price. Cooper hasn't helped but even dumping him for Russell would be very unlikely to see him suddenly go from a terrible jumper to a good one. He no longer appears to be able to travel sweetly on the bridle and instead he has also looked borderline ungenuine. The most likely scenario is that he is thoroughly exposed at the weekend and doesn't even make the Festival. If he were mine I would switch him back to hurdles in the hope that might rekindle some enthusiasm.
By:
buddeliea
When: 01 Feb 19 19:38
I quiet like Paloma Blue and taken 16.
Be interesting to see how he performs tomorrow, as he aint been the most fluent jumper thus far.
Got some engine though.
By:
differentdrum
When: 01 Feb 19 22:29
The beauty of the game is making up your own mind but if someone offered me 100/1 Paloma Blue I wouldn't take it and I am talking about potentially my biggest ante-post winner of the Festival. I couldn't want to be more wrong. 

He is already on his third jockey tomorrow. Presumably, they couldn't get Davy Russell.
By:
buddeliea
When: 02 Feb 19 06:58
Well he could be 100 later today!
Then again he could be single figures.
I aint overly impressed with the quality of this years Arkle to be honest,none of the more fancied ones stand out at all to me.

I thought his last run was impressive enough for 16's and i liked the way he travelled during the race,and that despite some skewy jumping. He got out jumped at a few,but never lost much ground at them,and any ground he did lose he quickly got back to the front again.
He needs to improve,especially with his jumping,although his engine may just see him through,looking at the likely opposition in March
Anyway,we shall find out more later.
I may have done a few bob,i may not,thats antepost for you.
By:
buddeliea
When: 02 Feb 19 15:56
PB Non Runner,anyone know why?
By:
ImSoLuckyLucky!
When: 02 Feb 19 16:04
Presumably Ground TOO fast

Wink
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