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Cheltenham Festival

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PeteTheBloke
13 Jul 18 18:53
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Date Joined: 10 Mar 03
| Topic/replies: 3,826 | Blogger: PeteTheBloke's blog
Every year everyone seems to know the winner ages before I do, so I'm starting this
thread in the hope that I'll get a share of the shrewd ante-post info and win on this race
for once.

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By:
Quevega06
When: 16 Jul 18 22:08
Paloma Blue for me,obv if Samcro goes JLT or Champion Hurdle
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 17 Jul 18 21:57
Noted. Thanks. A brave selection at this distance too - I'll have a small wager at that price.
By:
gutfeeling
When: 18 Jul 18 15:38
Kalashnikov, Hoping to go along when he schools over fences, If I like what I see I'll pile into him.
By:
barnesey
When: 18 Jul 18 19:08
Would be all over laurina if she goes chasing, I’m sure I’ve read somewhere she does, if she stays hurdling I will back her for the champ hurdle. My alternative to her at this stage would most definitely be Kalashnikov
By:
charwell.
When: 19 Jul 18 01:30
Kalashnikov will never make a top class jumper of a fence. His physique is all wrong for it but ideally suited to hurdles.
By:
gutfeeling
When: 23 Jul 18 12:19
In what way is it all wrong Charwell ?
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 15 Oct 18 14:03
Had my first antepost bet in this race... Lalor at 33/1 (bet365).

I was at Aintree when he won the bumper the year before last and was really taken with him that day. He's an absolute brute of a horse and looks every inch a 2m Chaser. Really think fences could be the making of him, and the fact he is with such a small stable means he's overpriced and somewhat overlooked in my eyes.

Bit of an in and out season over hurdles last time, he looked as if he might win all three of his races at Exeter, Ascot and Chelts, travelling like the best horse in the race, only failing to pick up close home each time. Great to see him handle Chelts so well in the race he was beaten by Western Ryder, and the pair were nicely clear and showed too much toe for Summerville Boy.

Obviously he disappointed in the Betfair Hurdle, but was friendless in the market and happy to forgive him one bad run. Bounced back to form in no uncertain terms in the Grade 1 Novice at Aintree and that was an excellent performance. Struggle to really see why he's a bigger price than Vision de Flos personally.

I think he has been running well on soft ground, but will likely be better on better ground. Set to make his chase debut at Exeter next week in the race Yanworth won last year. Obviously there is a danger he could be a JLT horse, but he's not available in the Any Race markets and breeding does suggest the minimum trip will be the way to go with him.
By:
Paterson92
When: 15 Oct 18 23:51
Although he’s not bred for fences, I’m willing to throw a few quid on MELON for the Arkle at 12’s.

Cheltenham form reads 232 - finishing 2nd in the Supreme, 3rd in the International Hurdle giving MTOY 6lb and most recently backed off the boards and almost caused the upset against Buveur D’air in this years Champion Hurdle.

Personally I’d love to see him jump a fence but the chances are he will be kept over hurdles.
By:
foxy
When: 17 Oct 18 09:11
nowhere near as good over hurdles as those already mentioned  but i thought hardline was very impressive at fairyhouse on his chase debut.
By:
Charko1984
When: 17 Oct 18 13:35
1st post on this forum. Hello to everyone. The arkle is the race I always like to target antepost,small field and mostly the winner comes from the top of the market. The one I like at a nice price is Mengli Khan at 20's. He looks sure to be sent chasing this season and certainly looks like a chaser. If you look at the arkle at the moment most of the horses ahead if him in the market melon, samcro,laurina,faugheen will probably not run in the race. Given he wasnt far behind kalashnikov in the supreme and he is 3 times the price he definitely looks value. Any thoughts?
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 17 Oct 18 13:47
I couldn't agree more Charko. Was only thinking this morning that most of the principals in the current market wont be running in this so there has to be some value.

Im a big MK fan.. but took the 14/1 any race rather than 20/1 in this race just in case. Although he's a huge big horse, he is a flat bred after all so bit of guesswork required about him and a fence.
By:
differentdrum
When: 19 Oct 18 09:44
I backed Paloma Blue a couple of times back in March/April. He is the horse I am most looking forward to this season.

The old cliche about anything he does over hurdles is a bonus surely applies to him. He has always looked a chaser in the making.

I am convinced he wants decent ground so he didn't really get the chance to show what he could really do last season. Anything like good ground and he would have gone very close to winning the Supreme. As it was but for a poor ride he would have been placed. Russell was too conservative, presumably not believing he would get up the hill on that ground.

He has a great cruising speed and the Arkle should provide the perfect test. Hopefully, we don't get soft ground again.

De Bromhead said he will start him off over two miles. He knows only too well he doesn't need to go any further.
By:
Quevega06
When: 19 Oct 18 21:54
Different Drum I'm thinking the same with him
By:
Quevega06
When: 19 Oct 18 21:54
Also De Brom loves a good old chaser
By:
differentdrum
When: 20 Oct 18 00:05
He had gone under the radar but the 25/1 and most of the 20/1 has now disappeared. Personally, I think any double figures is good and I wouldn't be overly worried if Samcro ended up here. There is something not quite right about the Samcro fences or hurdles debate. Gigginstown have never been particularly interested in Champion Hurdles until now? What's changed? Have they popped Samcro over a fence and found he isn't quite the natural they hoped? At his age it should be a no-brainer that he goes chasing. 

Kalashnikov is the other favourite. How sloppy was he over a hurdle? Quinlan v Russell, who would you want on your side? That's another no-brainer.
By:
buddeliea
When: 20 Oct 18 07:10
Interesting points you make DD.....re Samcro.
Maybe he is not taking to fences as they would like.
It certainly aint the norm to stay hurdling too long with a potential Gold Cup type,which I presume they want from him.
Its possible that he is the best thing since sliced bread as some on here seem to think, and they may decide he can win a CHurdle on route to a career over fences,but it is unusual for Gigginstown.

More I think about it the more I think he will end up in the JLT,and to me that's the best race for him,the one that would give him most chance of winning next March.
Possible of course he goes for Arkle if going chasing,but imo they wont be worrying about prestige and the Arkle imo,all about gearing towards the Gold Cup.
By:
Autocue
When: 09 Nov 18 19:50
I thought Kalashnikov looked full of promise today. A couple of novicey jumps but he'll learn from that. I liked the way he was able to put himself right and he showed plenty of pace. The five down the back at Warwick are a good test of jumping and he did well.
By:
Quevega06
When: 09 Nov 18 23:31
He done it well,love his head carriage but shortening him up is am absolute disgrace
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 12 Nov 18 18:21
> He done it well,love his head carriage but shortening him up is am absolute disgrace

LOL

That's how they operate
By:
Graeme83
When: 16 Nov 18 19:23
Nobody giving a shout out to Draconien ? needs good ground.
By:
shlotter
When: 17 Nov 18 01:25
I like the look of Le Richebourg. He shaped well in his two novice chases so far. If he doesn't go for the Arkle, he might be one for the JLT or other decent prizes in the spring.
By:
Quevega06
When: 17 Nov 18 17:18
Anyone know when Paloma Blue will be out ?
By:
duffy
When: 18 Nov 18 14:00
LALOR provides the first WOW performance of the new season....33's won't last long.
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 18 Nov 18 14:06
Very good performance, probably didnt beat much but it was effortless.
By:
duffy
When: 18 Nov 18 14:07
Would be a sight in the Henry V111 round Sandown.
By:
impossible123
When: 18 Nov 18 19:21
That was a performance and a half from Lalor and definitely a serious contender for this race.; his jumping got even better as the race progressed.

Kalashnikov ran with his head in his chest in the same manner as Burrough Hill Lad; he jumped adequately at Warwick, and quickened well at the finish.

Of the two Lalor looked a more efficient jumper, but when the pace quickened at Warwick Kalashnikov jumped better too.
By:
differentdrum
When: 19 Nov 18 13:15
Lalor should be favourite. That was 10-14lbs better than Kalashnikov over course and distance. Kalashnikov was too short before Warwick and too short afterwards. Considering that Footpad was double figures after his chase debut then 8/1 and 10/1 would seem far more reasonable than the very skinny prices being offered. 

As regards Paloma Blue it is obviously more worrying the longer he goes without running, particularly as he doesn't want winter ground. If he jumps then two runs before the Arkle would be adequate. By far the biggest concern is the thought Cooper might be on board.
By:
firstimevisor
When: 20 Nov 18 10:32
Good call from Can't Catch Me. Lalor was impressive. There's a long way to go still but 33's is a cracking bet
By:
Graeme83
When: 20 Nov 18 14:15
One firm pushed paloma blue out to 20 any race. Did de bromhead mention him in the racing post members article yesterday ?
By:
shockster
When: 20 Nov 18 15:08
Paloma Blue entered on Sunday at Navan along with Mengli Khan in the 2m Beginners Chase.
By:
Graeme83
When: 20 Nov 18 16:12
Thanks shockster. I noticed it on fatty's forum aswell. It seems as if Mullins 2 mile novices may be slow to the party this festive season. Lalor very impressive. I know Some said he may not have beat much, but it looked like a decent field for his first attempt to me. Not a horse i'd be laying anytime soon.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 20 Nov 18 19:43
Draconien out for the season.
By:
Graeme83
When: 20 Nov 18 21:23
Thanks CCM. That's a kick in the ante post bollox already. Backed him the other day. Maybe i should take a step back and take this as a sign.
By:
Outlaw1
When: 20 Nov 18 21:37

Nov 20, 2018 -- 2:15PM, Graeme83 wrote:


One firm pushed paloma blue out to 20 any race. Did de bromhead mention him in the racing post members article yesterday ?


Can you be as kind to say who? ill take a bit of that !

By:
Graeme83
When: 20 Nov 18 21:57
It was with hills. It very quickly went down to 12. Even that's going.
By:
Outlaw1
When: 20 Nov 18 22:17
on odds checker is says 20s but on site it's only 10s now .....Damn it .
By:
shockster
When: 21 Nov 18 09:29
Draconian out!!!  Was watching RacingUK season preview yesterday and Walsh on there live saying how well he had schooled.  What went wrong?  Anyway 1st AP casualty for me.


Re Oddschecker, be very careful on Ante Post bets and put them on with the bookies direct.  As Outlaw says it may say 20/1 but if you log into your account with your bookie it may have backe a completely different horse at 20/1 if you placed through Oddschecker.  I had the problem with Hills and they refunded me but not without screen shots etc. They say it's oddschecker at fault and vice versa.  I have noticed it most on the back any horse to win at cheltenham market.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 21 Nov 18 11:46
Here you go shockster:

"We had been looking forward to starting Draconien off over fences but, unfortunately, he has met with a setback and will miss the campaign," Mullins said of the five-year-old who is owned by Clipper Logistics Group.
By:
shockster
When: 21 Nov 18 12:42
Seen it CCM.  Cheers
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