Cheltenham Festival
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*** Arkle Chase ***
*** Arkle Chase ***
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Absolute sickener with Le Richebourg. Initially backed him at a big price for the JLT and then salvaged a double figure price for this race. He was the one to beat.
Both the Arkle and JLT are looking like shocking renewals. Some of the novice hurdles not great either. |
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Now looks like me if Defi du Seuil will be re-routed to Arkle, leaving Lostintranslation a certainty for the JLT
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I think the Arkle is the best race for Defi he looks to have plenty of pace to me. I'd fancy him more for this than LR.
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I think there is a chance that Glen Forsa might get re-routed to the JLT, the Arkle may or may not be weaker with LR out and Defi in, but if Defo does run then the JLT is significantly weaker and that race is arguably more suitable to him anyway.
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duffy, I could do with some good news right now but from what I could gather they had pretty much made their minds up with Glen Forsa. Shame, because although Le Richbourg out makes the race easier, it still doesn't make Glen Forsa a two miler.
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Their minds were made up before the LR news though hadn't they, GF would go off fav for the JLT without Defi, they must at least have another look at it.
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Gutted (again). First Dynamite Dollars and now this.
Le Richebourg was my biggest Festival winner, having backed him at 20/1 to win 'any race'.  |
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Frank Berry has made a statement to say that the choice of race "hasn't even been discussed, and will be decided much nearer the time". I think the market move assuming Defi switches to the arkle could be very premature. It's not like there was any indication his trainer wanted to aim him at the arkle previously and was being pushed out because of the owner's other horse. Defi has run twice at 2m since his juvenile days and been stuffed both times. He has looked brilliant over 2.5m this season and is/was a very worthy favourite for the JLT. That race is going to cut up a lot, the market is full of horses that aren't intended runners and Defi could easily go off about 6-4. If you're backing him for the Arkle all in at the moment you are betting that Frank Berry and Phillip hopes are a bit stupid imvho, and I don't think either of them are! The Arkle really isn't any more prestigious and he certainly doesn't have a better chance in it, I would say much less chance, so why would they switch?
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If the ground is good or better on tuesday Defi will probably go JLT along with Kalashnikov given the propensity of Lalor running to his true form on that ground. If soft or worse Lalor could be an absentee; the Arkle would be the race for Defi, and possibly Kalashnikov too, I firmly believe, as both could be tapped-for-toe on good or better ground.
But good ground on the opening day of the Festival is fairly unlikely using history as a guide. |
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its unlikely Lalor wouldnt run if its soft,he won a grade 1 at aintree last year on soft
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The Arkle not more prestigious,many Gold Cups did JLT win
 when the like of Kalashnikov is seemingly going the later well that says it all |
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Dropping like flies.
Ornua will take some pegging back on decent spring ground. Fabulous jumper. Just went too quick given the conditions last time @ Sandown. |
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I think it is stretching the imagination to suggest either of two JLT market leaders have looked 'brilliant'. It is more a case of the best of a bad lot. They are both fortunate that Glen Forsa isn't going that route.
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The Arkle's got the history, but the JLT will produce more Gold Cup winners going forward imo. I haven't seen many classier horses than Vautour in the last decade and connections decided it was good enough for him.
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Be mad not to aim Defi now, will win this
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Lalor was stuffed by Dynamite Dollars at Sandown in the soft, a form-turn-around of 19l to Cheltenham when the former won easily by 7l - he could not jump out of the very soft ground.
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Totally agree with BarryM. Don’t really understand why DDS should switch to this race myself. Comprehensively beaten by Lalor over C&D and seems to have benefitted from the step up in trip.
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Arkle winners who raced over further before stepping back include Tidal Bay & My Way de Solzen. Not a negative for DDS with course form over fences & over further than Arkle distance.
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i wasn't with le richebourg at all myself and was trying to get him, however very disappointed with the bookmakers reaction to the news, with the price cuts more in line with a 6/4 favourite being scratched...glen forsa is 7/2 in places, quite laughable the reaction to the news imo
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Agreed Harry. The Arkle and JLT are now both priced up as though Defi Du Seuil runs in neither. All the value of both races has evaporated since the Le Richebourg news.
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ACStafford 25 Feb 19 18:58 Joined: 07 Jul 04 | Topic/replies: 1,047 | Blogger: ACStafford's blog
The Arkle's got the history, but the JLT will produce more Gold Cup winners going forward imo. I haven't seen many classier horses than Vautour in the last decade and connections decided it was good enough for him. Rate reply: | report block user you say WILL how do you know,not going too far backwards SIZING JOHN was 2nd in 2016 ARKLE and where in 2017 oh yes he won the GC now iv'e plenty of time for VAUTOUR and would have loved to have seen him in that GC but i'd agree with a few posts above you need to stay to win an ARKLE so enter them all up and leave JLT for REAL STEEL pls |
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Gutted here
Been backing richbourg since last year Wide open for one of Willie's now Bit of juice and a big outsider Channons is a good in without doubt |
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I also put imo. Of course I don't know; nobody does. But it seems logical to me that, now there is an intermediate race for novices, a good percentage of future stayers that ran in the Supreme would step up to the JLT on the way to the Gold Cup. Clearly there's nowhere near enough evidence to determine this either way yet.
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would be a great story if lalor were to win. festival always seems to throw up these kind of stories.
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Got a 'Western Warhorse' kind of feel to it this year, with interrupted preparation and injuries.
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PFFT!!! What a cut up, no big hitting Ireland v GB match-up this year..... v disappointing.
This is where the foolishness of the 4 day meeting hits, small field novice chase events where the JLT nags should be raced in either the Arkle or RSA. RSA should be supported by the shutdown/reinvention of the 4 miler too. |
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Ok ur opinion Acstafford not getting into argument here just imo Arkle gets classier horses that stay and imo class gets you home,some may say that'll never stay it just depends what it had to stay against as an example Altior a past Arkle winner if was in this GC I would be all over it
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But I will add Vautour could have won a GC as a past winner SIR DR CHAMPS should have won a GC and I know who was the classier and not imo it's a fact
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If there is to be a Western Warhorse type shock I'm finding it hard to see where it's coming from!I suppose that's the idea of shocks!
Pravalaguna is interesting. Anybody know if she is going to run? Surely becomes more likely as the race cuts up. I can't remember a mare winning but Kruguyrova was 2nd in Tidal Bay's year and, of course, Shattered Love won the JLT last year. |
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Good ground for the Arkle will only happen if the watering system breaks down or Simon Claisse is kidnapped/murdered. But GS or slightly better is the most likely at this stage. With the winter we've had any rain will drain away in a couple of days so only heavy rain from the weekend onwards is going to make it properly soft. I could see a possible case for switching Defi it it was heavy, but not otherwise. He looks a 2.5m specialist to me.
Agree Differentdrum that "brilliant" might have been stretching it, but "better than anything else in the race". Glen Forsa looked to be coming to the end of his tether at Kempton to me and the JLT is a much stiffer test, I don't think he'd have any chance at all in that. Not sure how much he has in the Arkle, but if he's top class at any trip then definitely 2m for me. But he beat a bunch of plodders at Kempton off 125, by a diminishing 2.5l. That's nowhere near graded form, even if the race has worked out fairly well. |
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what about this debromhead horse ornaua? that has a chance, surely?
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Nothing discounted or confirmed re:DDS
Once news broke that Le Richebourg had been scratched from the Arkle, the Philip Hobbs-trained Defi Du Seuil attracted support for the two-mile novice championship as some bookmakers now offer no runner, no bet. “We’ll be thinking about it. The ground and everything will have a bearing on it. It’s all up in the air at the minute,” said McManus’s racing manager, Frank Berry. “Which race he goes for hasn’t even been discussed. Getting him there in one piece is the main thing.” |
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Re Pravalaguna , after her Naas win , Mullins commented that her owners would like to run , and he wasnt worried about the extra 1/2 mile , so it could be Arkle or JLT if she came over . I did note that he has the Camelia mare also entered in the JLT who ' may ' be the better stayer , for what its worth .
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Defi is going the opposite way to when Le Richebourg was announced a non-runner; he's weak and is 13.5 here at he moment. But firmed-up for the JLT.
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two headlines on racingpost site,one that defi is a great replacement for jp in the arkle,the other that hobbs still fancies the jlt for defi
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I believe the Hobbs one is more likely.
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I think Defi needs a bit of softish ground ideally, and could not jump as slick as Glen Forsa or Lalor over the Arkle trip. The JLR will suit more, and is an easier race to win this year nevertheless, Lostintranslation is a formidable opponent; Kalashnikov would have no chance here regardless of ground, I firmly believe.
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Connections of Kalashnikov have just confirmed this is his target at Cheltenham. Are they correct after his latest showing?
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Deosnt win any race imo but certainly not the Arkle, even though it looks a fairly weak renewal
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Given the likelihood of soft ground or worse (forecast unsettled with plenty of rain) which will inconvenience Lalor here, and stamina sapping for Defi in the JLT would this be Defi's eventual destination at the Festival? Otherwise Lostintranslation could eat him for breakfast up that hill.
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