Cheltenham Festival
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Vautour problem?
Vautour problem?
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Replies: 272
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perhaps they should have a 300 metres race at the Olympics.
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cause and effect - i dont have a problem with the melling chase and i have had many conversations outside of this forum about cheltenham becoming too big however i am realistic enough to realise that the train has well and truly left the station and have lost any hope at all of races at aintree being taken as seriously as cheltenham. so rather than fight it and plough a totally futile furrow beating the melling chase drum - i am left with embracing the ryanair - and hoping we get to see all the best horses at the fetival
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so duffy is the 400 meters a sprint or mid distance race
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If you would have asked Gordon Elliot would he have rather won the Ryanair or the Melling Chase with Don Cossack last year, I know what the answer would be.
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miltons sophie I completely agree, Vautour is the perfect fit for the intermediate trip but weren't you the one who attacked Ricci for keeping his horses separated and doing what every other owner/trainer has done like forever (Flyingbolt and Arkle springs to mind)? At this point RR hasn't ruled out running both Vautour and Djakadam in the GC so it seems either you were wrong then or now
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MS...Vautour all on his own is enough in my eyes to prove the point, he's just not your everyday grade 1 horse, for me he has it in him to be another SS at the distance of 2 miles....and I know I'm in a minority in thinking that this fact won't be lost on the hard nosed connections and even they will bend to what the horse deserves.
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Vautour, Kauto Star, Desert Orchid. Imagine a world where Desert Orchid didnt win the Gold Cup but won 3 ryanairs!!
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One Man would have been another crime to racing.
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and if Native Upmanship had been born 10 years later he'd have won 2 or 3 and would now be regarded as an all time great!!!
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 my posts have nothing whatsoever to do with vautour or rr - i only used vautour as an adjective (i.e. IF he or ANY horse happens to be best at the ryanair trip) i am not saying he is. if ANY horse owned by ANYBODY is best at 2 1/2 miles i would be happy for it to run in the ryanair. RR has many horses best at the same trip - separating these is what i dont like. so if vautour and djak were two of the best two 3 m 2 horses around i would be completely gutted if he ran one of them in the ryanair and similalrly if he runs vautour in the gc to see how good he is at the trip i would be very happy for the sport - but if a horse is clearly best at 2 1/2 then i am less excited at seeing them over 2 or 3 2 just beacsue of tradition or prestige or whatever else |
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duffy you havent answered my question about 400 metres
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You seem fairly certain that its possible to identify a horse whos optimum trip is 2.5m. There are clearly plenty of horses who cant win at 2 or 3 but can win some 2.5m races. That doesnt necessarily follow that 2.5m is their best trip.
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Last comment I promise,
You say Annie Power was shoe horned into the world hurdle and she was, but you want to do the same for the champion hurdle! The race that she should have been in from the start is the mares hurdle against Quevega, both running at IMO was their optimum trip. Now that would of been a race to remember. And the reason we didn't get this show down is it's more important to run in the big 4 than win one of the other lesser thought of races.. Strange?? |
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greatness is not just about the races a horse wins - the rating has to be there as well winning 3 of any race doesnt make a horse a great if the competition was poor and the horse didnt achieve a high rating - also imagine a world where kauto star and desert orchid ran against each other at their optimum trip
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I know what you mean...I was trying to be funny without succeeding....400 already serves the purpose.
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exactly depends on opposition! Vautour might win an average 2 mile chase, but going for Champion Chase is ridiculous when he lacks a turn of foot, going for GC seems reasonable now as he proved he stays 3m, whether he'll stay GC trip is another question that can only be answered on the day, and even then he might come short against 2-3 better horses(Don Poli, The Don, Cue Card). So the Ryanair trip where he's proven at could be the best option as there's no glory coming 2nd or 3rd in the GC but stands a good chance of taking the Ryanair, who was won by better horses in the past( Imperial Comander, Cue Card..) on their way of eventually winning the GC.
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*winning the GC or KG
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Please stop using Vautour as an example as to why the Ryanair should be more then a hybrid race. He's the exception, not the norm. There will never be a case where 3/4 of the Best Chasers in the lands are competing in the Ryanair. Take Vautour out of this years race and you wouldn't even have a 170+ rated horse running. Horses are just not trained to be 2 1/2 milers. They fall through the cracks and end up in the Ryanair.
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I'm off to watch the GC winner in action now. Go Don Poli!!!!
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who says he lacks a turn of foot?, UDS wouldn't get him off of the bridal and then he'd sail past him
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by best trip i mean where they post their highest ratings which is why in an earlier post i used the 175 2 miles 180+ 2 1/2 miles and 175 3m 2 to provide context
duffy - last point maybe - this is not about vautour - i think he would beat uds i think he would win the ryanair i am not sure about gc but think it is a possibility - i would be all for him running in either the cc or gc - he is a young horse and we dont yet know what his best trip is conclusively - i am talking about horses where we do know and where we have 2 or 3 where we do know - so in a years time we may know what his best trip is and it may be 2 1/2 miles and there may be another similar 175 horse with 2 1/2 miles as best trip and if and when that happens in the future i will be grateful the ryanair exists |
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MS, I know what you mean, how can a horse add anything to either the GC or CC when they have proven it is not their best trip and are only running in those races because there's nothing else for them....better they have a race that tailors to them specifically where they can show off their talents to the maximum
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"I'm off to watch the GC winner in action now. Go Don Poli!!!!"
The Don has nothing to worry after seeing his Poli run. "who says he lacks a turn of foot?" Trainer & Jockey & form over the minimum trip. |
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^
when they had the agenda of running him over further....and anyway, who says you need a turn of foot to win a CC.....Sizing Europe didn't use that and if you don't believe me you can ask his trainer, because he said so straight after winning one.!! Vautour would maintain a very high pace throughout that would kill UDS off. |
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you may be right, over 2m fences the turn of foot is not an important requirement but when facing a horse like UDS who doesn't stops he may need it, if only to convince Mullins and Ruby to run him in the CC.
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Another potential problem they'd worry about is, with Vautour on his hammer pressing him they'd maybe worry about UDS's jumping, they wouldn't want to end up with a pyhrric victory for connections somewhat.
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Miltons Sophie - by best trip i mean where they post their highest ratings which is why in an earlier post i used the 175 2 miles 180+ 2 1/2 miles and 175 3m 2 to provide context
I may be reading them wrong (very possible) but i cant find any Ryanair winners who achieved their best rating over 2.5 miles. Who are some of these obvious 2.5 milers? |
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please...... i was talking about the possibility of vautour (as an adjective) ending up with these ratings (or other horses in the future) it was my first or second post - i wrote that the winning rprs of the past 4 runnings of cc, ryanair and gc avaeraged out very close also the rprs of ryanair winners have been increasing significantly over time - it would not take a huge leap of faith to imagine a time soon when winners of the ryanair average 175 and some have ratings over this - without checking i would imagine uxizandres rpr in last years ryanair (174 i think???) was his highest rpr - also cue card had a high rpr and although he has betterred it since at the time it was one of his highest. the upward trend of this race differs significantly from the roller coaster of gc and cc which has regular peaks and troughs - this opens up the possibility that in the future ryanair winners could have parity ratings wise on average over time with winners of the gc and cc.
it may not happen and if it doesnt then i agree the ryanair may never take off but if the trend continues then soon there will be little doubt that this race has its value |
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I think I am reading them wrong! The point about the average rating in the ryanair is fairly irrelevant to my point. I was saying that if a horse can run 175 in a ryanair but has or will achieve the same over 2 or 3 miles, then they arent one of these 2.5m specialists. And there is no need for a race for them. And the CC and GC will be better for it. Imo
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I may be reading them wrong (very possible) but i cant find any Ryanair winners who achieved their best rating over 2.5 miles. Who are some of these obvious 2.5 milers?
The first two I looked at - Taranis and Fondmort - both had peak RPRs at 2.5m We're not debating whether 2.5m can be the optimum trip of a racehorse are we? Surely that was well established as a resounding yes way before the advent of the Ryanair  |
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Most Ryanair winners are just shy of top class over any distance. If I remember correctly McCoy's first reaction after winning on Uxizandre, a very good winner, last season was to lament the fact that he hadn't been able to show his greatness in the big race the day before. Which says it all really.
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MS you could at least go back to 2005 when the Ryanair began and give us a decent stat. Of course the last 4 years is surely much more convenient given it included the 2 lowest rated winners of the GC for the last 20 years.
"this opens up the possibility that in the future ryanair winners could have parity ratings wise on average over time with winners of the gc and cc." Seriously enough already.  |
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Why would MS go back to 2005 - when it was a Grade 2 - to prove the point that the race is getting better and better....
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Gustavo
I wasn't suggesting Annie should have been shoe horned into the Champion. She should have been there on merit but they sought to protect Hurricane and it blew up in their faces. Annie ran over the minimum at Doncaster, tanked along and won with her head in her chest. Not of course a champion hurdle trial given the opposition but more of one than a world hurdle trial seeing as she had never raced that distance before Cheltenham. Given the penchant for Neptune winners turning into Champions she should have been given her chance in my view. |
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Geez, let him go back to when it was a Grade 1 a couple of years later and show us the stats. He picked the last 4 years for a reason. Not my problem if you can't understand why. And his point was not just that the Ryanair was getting better but that the horses were "running similar standard of races" in both races. The stat included 2 of the lowest rated GC horses for decades. IMO using this stat is disingenuous.
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i used the last 4 years for two reasons. trend analysts will tell you that the more recent info is FAR more significant and secondly to illustrate how the ryanair is trending relative to the other two races and not to fudge any comparison - i suspect if you took the last 20 winners of the gc the average rpr would be similar to the last 4 (coneygree posted a 178 which is above average and sprinter posted 190) - go and do the maths mael instead of doubting my integrity and draw the trend line and you might just get it - ok if you are familiar with trend lines if you drew a trend line for all 3 races since the start of the ryanair the line for the gc and the cc would look fairly flat and the ryanair would be going up so to visualise the ryanair line would start way below the other two and we would see the gap closing and closing to the point where the gap now would be minimal. My point is that that trend would only need to continue for a few more years and there would be no gap at all.
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Eeternaloptimist I know what your trying to say, but I'm pretty sure they only turned up at Doncaster for the free money, it was a penalty kick and an easy prep for cheltenham. If they ever really considered the CH as a target I can't believe they thought it would be an adequate trial. I see this more as getting paid for a race course gallop. That season she had been campaigned for the mares hurdle and that's where she should of run.
I know there were trainer/jockey politics and lure of one of the top 4 races, but this is the whole point, where this whole discussion started, putting horses in the wrong races. If the connections aren't carful she'll be a forgotten horse. If she can't get her name on something this year it's starting to become a very disappointing memory of a fantastic mare. Even if she goes on to win the mares next year and the 2 after that. She won't be able to match Quevega's record in the race. She'll need to win 3 just to be mentioned in the same breath as Quevega. They may have missed their chance for her to be remembered as a great. |
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That's incorrect Gustavo. Annie was kept over hurdles for a champion hurdle campaign. Ricci said exactly that. He'd wanted to take her over fences but had been convinced to stay over hurdles for a shot at the big one. Then Mullins and Walsh pulled his pants down and after all that Hurricane ran like a drain and she got outstayed. Serves them right.
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