Cheltenham Festival
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Vautour problem?
Vautour problem?
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Vautour has run once in open company and narrowly beat Ptit Zig getting 5lbs.
Now I know that visually when both a novice hurdler and chaser he looked the real deal, but until he has done it in open company nobody actually knows how good he is. Personally, I think he'll struggle to win either the KG or the CGC. The 3m round kempton takes some getting and you're certainly not guaranteed decent ground. I imagine Cue Card and Conte will want to make it a decent test and with the likes of Don Cossack also in the race, you'll need to be a class stayer to win it. The same applies to the CGC except you can chuck Coneygree, Djakadam etc into the mix as well. Would like to be proved wrong re the KG as, Coneygree aside, I thought his performance at last years festival was the one that smacked of the most future potential and I'd like to see the two of them going at it in the Blue Riband over the next two or three runnings. |
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Ages since I posted anything on here, but Cheltenham is starting to loom ….
I note very little reference to the ground in all of the above. Does Djakadam not need it soft ? And Vautour has been so good on fastish ground the last two years at Cheltenham that you’d be thinking he could hardly be as good on soft. Is Vautour better going left-handed ? I think so. Ruby came out with some propaganda about the alignment of the fences, but the horse jumped left at Ascot and there has to be a chance he’ll do it again at Kempton. Think about how he operates at Cheltenham, hugs the rail, jumps and travels well on the pace. He has to be better left-handed. I wouldn’t be surprised if Vautour got beaten at Kempton and still went for the Gold Cup. I think Wlilie sees this as the horse that will finally win him his Gold Cup and everything will be geared towards getting him back to Cheltenham in the same shape as he’s been for the last two years, so he may not be 100% at Kempton. All of Willie’s other good horses came out again after Cheltenham last season, Faugheen, Arctic Fire, Hurricane, Douvan, Un De Sceaux, Nichols Canyon, Shaneshill, Don Poli, but Vautour was put away. I thought Willie’s immediate reaction after the JLT was telling. He described Vautour’s performance as ‘stunning’. That left me stunned. Willie just doesn’t use that kind of language. And have a go at lip-reading the slow-motion close-up of a beaming Ruby Walsh just after he passes the post. That’s a different kind of language again. I don’t think there’s any mistaking it. These guys think this horse is the one. |
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mincer11
09 Dec 15 16:58 theres not been too many king George winners who didnt get the Gold Cup trip, maybe Florida Pearl, Edredon Bleu and Wayward Lad, im not going to count One Man, as he was a bit of an enigma. Laughable not to count One Man in a list of King George winners who didn't get the Gold Cup trip. |
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Wonder what they said about him after his last run,or the Clarcam defeat??
Look he may be the next Pegasus,but at this stage he has won a couple of novice races at the festival. Even if he is a great,he still has to stay 3m2f bloody well to win this Gold Cup. Xmas will be interesting,and some of us will be changing views after then I imagine. |
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I think he is a superstar, but don't think he'll win on boxing day or the GC because you can be a superstar without these races.
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Djakadam has gone from around 17/1 to 6/1 within the last two weeks, while Vautour has retreated from around 5/1 to 7/1.
If money talks, this is significant though I still think we'll see Vautour at Kempton and plans will follow after Christmas. |
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Of course Duffy he can be a superstar without winning those 2 races,but that does mean connections have to find his distance for him to be a superstar at!!
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And he is not a superstar for winning the Supreme and JLT,he has to do a lot more to be given that status.
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He will do in time, especially if they run him over 2 miles and that's the point, he can win 5 Ryanair's one after another and never be given that status, he just wouldn't beat the right horses. The performance in the JLT was for me a NH equivalent to a Frankel moment in the guineas or Queen Anne, that's what I recognized it as, that rare wow moment that comes along once in a blue moon and clearly told me that this horse is another kauto or sprinter...(in time) that's how highly I rate him.
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Well I for one would not mind if you are proved right.
May have a problem with the 2m idea though. They already have a potential superstar at that distance,although of course he still has to prove it. Then you have his connections campaigning him over further and saying he's a Gold Cup horse. Yes,maybe time and a few failures at further may get him back to 2m,and he will then achieve what you think he can. Let's hope whatever happens that the horse runs at his ultimate distance and reaches the level he's capable of, whatever that may be. |
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Duffy - i often here people refer to a hose as a machine or monster - you have used the term superstar - can you provide some context (and you chose how you want to do this - e.g. a rating > x or as good as??? - better than ??? as i think i would find the context interesting
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gut feeling......I'll hopefully let his future exploits provide the context, that any good?
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don't give me lines
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not happy duffy
 considering detention |
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You know when we witness a performance or display, (and it could be in any walk of life) where rightly or wrongly and without evidence yet in the book tells that individual that they have just witnessed something very very special....I got that moment when he won the JLT.
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In the immediate aftermath of the JLT I remain convinced that Walsh was about to utter similar comments but held himself back.
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duffy - thanks i get it - hope he does it at least one more time for you
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gut feeling......I'll hopefully let his future exploits provide the context, that any good?Grin
Did you call Duffy |
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That Willie Mullins obviously knows nothing, does he? Couldn't pick a horse's right distance to save his life. And that Ruby Walsh? What does he know? Getting off Vautour and thinking he could win a Gold Cup! If he'd ridden a few decent Gold Cup horses he'd know better, wouldn't he? Obviously doesn't have a clue about riding horses. He should have jumped off after the JLT and said - 'this is a Ryanair horse - he could be the next Dynaste!' Jeeez!
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Cue Card achieved a lot more than Vautour and would be lucky to follow his path and win the Ryanair. It could turn up into a really competitive G1. As for Mullins and Walsh, they're not saints you know, just last month they gave a horse a searching gallop with 3-4 days before an official race and got him beaten, a horse like that only gets beaten by its jockey/trainer. They don't always get it right. If Vautour will stay the trip(not necessarily winning) he'll be in the GC 100% but he will need to prove that in the KG.
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Just making the point that they are actually pretty successful when it comes to training and riding racehorses. They do get it wrong occasionally - of course they do - but not often. The Faugheen mishap is a good example but the truth is, all that really meant was a second string winner for the stable and a walk in the market (albeit small) for the biggest certainty for the festival. Regarding Vautour - Ruby knows a Gold Cup horse when he sits on one - what possible reason would he have to say it was a flying machine if he knew he wasn't? Last year Mullins said Douvan was the best he'd had and nobody on here would have it - until it pished in. The thing is that the people who have missed the fancy prices about these horses like Douvan last year and Min this year, spend the whole time dismissing them. If they held a 25-1 ticket their opinion would probably be different. All I'm saying is sometimes it pays to respect their opinion rather than try to second guess them all the time.
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You got me there, I've dismissed Douvan last year just like I'll do Min this year, just like I did Faugheen 2 years ago. Faugheen then convinced me he's one in a million in his next start at P'town but the former 2 still have to prove alot in terms of form. I get why they're short, because RR has good buying contacts in FR and IRE, RR has the best trainer, RR has the best rider, but still when the form lacks even Ruby will say it and will often disagree with the markets, he said few weeks ago Coneygree should be fav for the GC. I think we should wait for the KG to see if Vautour stays and not dismiss an entire race like Ryanair which Cue Card, a higher achieving horse than Vautour, has won in the past and Vautour could follow along if we discover his best trip is not 3m+. Christmas is coming soon, hopefully with presents not sticks!
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Ruby and Willie were convinced Champagne Fever was a Gold Cup horse. They do get it wrong. Adds to the fun.
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Think they'll get it wrong again if Vautour is sent to Kempton, especially leaving Djakadam on the bench. Whatever Roobs might think about how the Ascot fences are sited, Vautour has earned some sort of jumped left comment in half of his last 6 races. Have they become blinded by the flat 3 miles being the obvious stepping stone and put the right handed bit to the back of their minds? Lexus can be more of a stamina test but if he's being trained for the Gold Cup hard to see why that should put you off. Horse is quite badly in and out anyway, who knows which Vautour will turn up.
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Like so many people I have been hugely impressed with Vautour. Going back to his hurdle days, I was struck by how similar he was to Moscow Flyer in terms of running style. I was certain that his career would follow the same course as the great chaser and I have serious concerns that 3m will ruin the horse. Hope to be wrong.
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Anyone else think RR's pre race comments were very telling? Sounded like he wasn't going to be running Djakadam against Vautour to me. And as gallant as he was today, that run might make that decision even more likely.
I'm personally very happy with my Ryanair bet after that. |
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Can't believe he is as low as 5/4 for the Ryanair mind you. That's mental.
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i can see why he's so short. he lost the King G in the first few furlongs being a bit keen but still nearly pulled it off.
jumps well and if he settles can see out 3 miles + no bother. all things considered that was a very impressive performance today and he will only get better. ryanair makes a lot of sense for this season, gold cup next year perhaps? |
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Yes don't get me wrong, he deserves to be fav. And there is no other horse I'd want to be in for the race right now. But his target isn't 100% confirmed yet and it's two and a half months away. Nearly even money already? Not for me.
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Im pretty sure if he was with any other stable that he would be going for gold after that performance today. Didn't prove conclusively that he didn't stay and was a brave effort for his first attempt over 3 miles in a stellar field. The margins are fine and if he'd hung on the narrative would be slightly different. Cheltenham on better ground appears to light this horse up like no other track and he would be a shoe in for the Ryanair imo. However if he wins a Ryanair comfortably and Mullins fails to win the holy grail again he will be left wondering. I'd guess that his chosen route will be a 'will he won't he' for the next few months. Mullins himself will have learned a lot today and I suspect he has a fair idea of the route he prefers. For instance who would have thought this time last year that Djakadam would narrowly fail in last springs gold cup and be favourite heading into this seasons renewal. Personally if I was Mullins I would fire all the darts I could at the big prize and not be left wondering after. I remember Mullins said after last years JLT that he was a very difficult horse to get fit and that he needed to be worked very hard in his preparations. I suspect that he has left plenty in the tank to work on again for Cheltenham, the problem is that nobody knows what race he will end up in.
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Coneygree shows the folly of making plans too far in advance. Tomorrow never comes. If Vautour is fit then he surely must run in the big race.
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Vautour was far too keen today, that coupled with his iffy stamina saw him beat, to contest the GC over even further he'd have to completely switch off and even then there'd be a huge question mark over him getting the trip, therefore it would be very unlikely that he'll run in the GC, the fact that the trainer and owner have another with a very big chance in the race makes it IMO pretty much guaranteed that he won't line up.
Having said all that, today I think maybe even enhanced him as a racehorse IMO, as, for a horse to be as keen as he was and nearly win the race shows his immense quality and as I've stated on here a few times he needs to be running in the Champion Chance to fully recognise his ability, he's simply too good a horse to run in the Ryanair, his place in the panthenon of great NH racehorses would be better remembered as a Champion Chaser. Yes I know he's got to do it but today only made me more convinced he's capable of it. |
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The natural race for Vautour is the Champion Chase. If you weaken noticeably at the end of Kempton's flat and easy 3 miles, what chance has he up the hill at the end of 3.2 miles?
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Really cry?! If you are a couple of strides away from winning the best King George in years over 3m on winter ground having made the pace for most of the race, the best race for you is 2m on spring ground against crack speed merchants like UDS?
I think it's virtually impossible to argue the Champion will suit Vautour better than the Ryanair. The prestige argument is the only one with any merit IMO, and that clearly doesn't matter to connections. |
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What a gallant race Vautour ran in defeat but i have to say that it was probably the worst result possible for his admirers. I've resigned myself to seeing him running in the Ryanair "who gives a flying phuck" Chase now.
 Only hope now is that UDS gets beaten (or nearly beaten) and they reroute him to the CC which is where his class and exuberance would be seen in full. Vautour ain't no undercard horse. |
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might aswell give him the ryanair trophy now
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The problem with some of the comments on here is the following, you slate the Ryanair for having no prestige , but how will it get any if all the best 2 1/2m horses always step up or down in trip. The argument is always the same he's either not quick enough for 2m or doesn't stay 3m 2f well enough. It's never this horse is a world beater at 2 1/2m!
The Ryanair will always be seen as a little brother, until top trainers start aiming their horses at this race, not because there not suited to the other 2no, but because that's what their best at. That's the only way the race will get a roll of honour to be proud of. |
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The argument that Walsh would peddle about his lack of speed for 2 miles was used whilst they still had the opportunity to find out about his stamina......I reckon that if Walsh asked honestly who he'd rather ride in a CC, he'd say Vautour.
I think the issue about whether connections might care or not and only want festival winners may just be tested with a horse with quite the ability of Vautour, Ricci might just want to see this horse winning/running in a proper Championship race at the festival......and no the Ryanair isn't a proper Championship race, it is a mish mash hybrid. |
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The GC,CC and CH are the ultimate tests for a NH racehorse hence the prestige associated with these races. The "mish mash hybrid" (nice one Duffy) will never be held in high esteem regardless of whether trainers target this race or not.
Agree 100% Ruby would pick Vautour over UDS. Hopes he gets to make the choice. |