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To all those saying there is nothing to know. How do you know
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I genuinely think its a case of a deserved adjustment to the horse's price. If he is entitled to be 3/1 against Don Cossack and a few veteran chasers in Kempton over 3m, then he is definitely at least an 8/1 shot to beat them and all the rest of the contenders at Cheltenham.
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maybe pp are starting to realise that thy are getting known for getting it right and have sussed that they have ability to influence ap wagers to mop up easy cash.
i.e punters start to trust their info, they use this trust to take a view on a horse like vautour, because punters now trust them they divert funds to the alternative market and hey presto they have driven behaviour - what a dream scenario for a bookmaker - enticing money by shortening prices - the bean counters would be having orgasms |
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should say enticing money by manipulating prices
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miltons sophie has summed it up perfectly. There's nothing to know at this stage. It's not as though he's just came a 10 length third in the KG and now everyone is wondering if he will still go down the Gold Cup route or drop back in trip for the Ryanair but PP have him shortest for the Ryanair so "they must know given their link to the yard" ... we are just under 3 weeks from knowing his target ourselves, Mullins/Ricci/Ruby won't know his target until then either. Fair enough I think his target may well be the Ryanair after Boxing Day, but what if he comes out and wins? Are they really going to send a King George winner back in trip for the Ryanair when the GC is the one he's desperate to win? Not a chance. Until Boxing Day, this is nothing but speculation.
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Paterson. I actually think they might. I'm convinced WPM won't want his three best staying chasers in the same race, even if it is the Gold Cup. So even if Vautour wins the KG, it wouldn't surprise me if they are now thinking of him for the Ryanair. Having Djakadam is the big reason he can talk RR into it.
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By the way Djakadam slammed his rivals in the John Durkan it should be him going over the Ryanair!!!
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WM ran his three best hurdlers in last years Ch Hurdle and WM MOL and RR would all love to win the GC but of course MOL wouldnt mind winning the Ryanair but not at the expense of missing out on a GC.
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He did prove he stayed the GC trip last year though chief! Something Vautour hasn't yet... And even winning a KG won't prove it.
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Arkle. There weren't any other options for those horses though. Had there been a Grade 1 2m4f hurdle race, things may well have been different. Obviously the big difference there was that they were three different owners though.
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I agree CCM there was no other option but if they have three good darts for the GC they'll fire them all.
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If Vautour wins the KG and they re-route him to the Ryanair then i will personally do a Emily Wilding Davison on the horse if he's out in front going to the last. No way you're getting those AP bets cashed CCM.
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I think it'll get beat in the KG and we'll still be none the wiser regarding his Festival target as they'll insist going left handed round Cheltenham will bring about improvement hence any PP prices at this stage are a moot point in my opinion as far as guidance goes.
The only way I'll view the current situation is do they think Djackadam has a better chance than Vautour in the GC as they'll spread their options for the festival and asking myself that I'd plump for Vautour turning up in the Ryanair. I wouldn't bet on it though. |
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It was a bit tongue in cheek CCM, but if they said Djakadam for the Ryanair, I'd have no doubt he would be (and should) be fav.
Agree with gutfeeling in that whether he wins the KG or not, we won't know his targer until the week before the race, and this thread will go on and on for months! |
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I know it was mate
![]() Yep agreed.... I'll have a fiver on this thread having the most posts come Festival week! |
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Have a fiver on for me CCM, I'm good for it
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Deal!
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Would not surprise me at all if we know his target after the Lexus and KG are run.
Djakadam will run in the Lexus and should run a big race enhancing his Gold Cup chances. Vautour will run in the KG and it could well be clear after that what his target will be. If he stays......GC, if not Ryanair. Should really be that simple,and I think it will be. |
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The last post by buddeliea is more or less on the button.
Anyone who thinks that Vautour can win the King George and turn up in the Ryanair doesnt really deserve a reply. |
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I'm more of the thinking anyone who thinks he can win a KG on the back of his last run doesn't warrant a reply myself.
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Why can't he win the King George ?, you hardly think he was going to be 100% fit first time out.
Anyway if you want to put your money where your mouth is , there's a market up so you can back your gob with cash. If you want put up money and I will match you. |
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The form of the last race puts Ptit Zig as the better horse given the weight concession and the proximity of the pair at the finish and what he has done for the form is very little to boost the merits of Vautours defeat of him has it not.
I'll not ask what Third Intention or Seventh Sky has done to boost the form either as we already know don't we. Vautour jumped out to his left which cost him ground and Kempton is sharper and they'll be going a bit faster so this will cost him too much ground imo. As for the fitness angle lets be straight about this. It's a something you can't quantify sat at home so you shouldn't entertain it as a feasible piece of reasoning and you're really guessing at something just because someone else said it, Not really a angle I'd entertain. As for what I should do with my money I'll keep the money side between myself and my bookmaker but thanks for the offer. I've stated on other threads before I'm a backer or trader IR not a layer. Sure someone would happily accommodate you. |
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What if he wins the KG by scrambling home and looking like he's running on vapour!!! in that case you'd have the novelty of a KG winner probably drifting for a GC.
We're all hypothesizing but the sweeping statement of "if it wins the KG it will definitely turn up in the GC" isn't necessarily accurate. |
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^^ Very good points.
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In all likelihood if Vautour wins the King George then he will be aimed at the Gold Cup, we know that there are very slim possibilities of something else happening but they are very slim indeed.
Gutfeeling, you are talking a whole load of nonsense, i think anybody who knows anything about the game would realise that. Anybody who thinks Ptit Zig is a better horse than Vautour, well that person can be safely dismissed for all time. Their opinion and ramblings count for absolutely zero. |
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Agreed with mincer here, there is no need trawling through formlines involving ptit zig or horse b and c, those of us who are fans of this horse pretty much are basing it on and believing that what they saw in the supreme and particularly in the performance in the JLT was a display that comes along once in a while and one that is produced by an absolute monster, and that is what vautour is, a monster.
Provided they find the right races for him to produce his optimum in I have little doubt he'll show himself to be the best horse in training...only my opinion though ![]() |
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For me as it stands it would be in the Champion Chase.
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Good post duffy, and he may well be adaptable trip wise, a bit like Kauto Star was. Not saying he couldnt win the champion chase, if he was a definite runner in that, hed be ante post fav in my opinion, only just mind you.
But to me the way he won the JLT, its hard to believe he wont stay 3m particularly at a track like Kempton, now whether he gets the Gold Cup trip is a different matter, although its fair to say that theres not been too many king George winners who didnt get the Gold Cup trip, maybe Florida Pearl, Edredon Bleu and Wayward Lad, im not going to count One Man, as he was a bit of an enigma. |
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The crucial thing with Vautour and the Gold Cup is how he performs at Kempton. I said earlier if he stays the trip at Kempton he should be in the Gold Cup,if he don't, the Ryanair.
Whether he wins the KG is not the be all and end all,he could lose and still stay the trip. Having said about him staying the KG trip,there's also the possibility that For all we know he may even be better suited to a Gold Cup than a KG,after all he likes Cheltenham and he has jumped left handed going right handed suggesting it's just possible he's pounds better left handed. Anyway let's hope Vautour gives his connections a good feeling about his chances in a Gold Cup during the season. I really don't want any of the contenders dropping out. |
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Mincer I'll leave you to it then as you clearly don't need a opinion at odds with yours clogging up a open forum.
Good luck for the 26th. A good round of jumping and your charge has a chance but for me he's a better bet for whatever you fancy him for in March on a course he has always shown his very best at. Best wishes. |
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Fair play to you gutfeeling, i may have been a touch harsh on you, and i can listen to any opinion as long as it has some basis. But saying that Ptit Zig is better than Vautour is akin to saying Clarcam is better than him on their meeting in Leopardstown last Christmas.
I dont see anything wrong with thinking outside the box, but not all formlines are believable, and its a bit like saying that heap of shiite that beat Golden Horn in York would ever do so again, we all know it wouldnt happen, much the same way Ptit Zig would never beat Vautour over any trip. |
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I felt you was but all's fair in love & racing so never any hard feelings here as I can be as bad on occasions :)
I wasn't saying Ptit Zig is the better horse though so sorry if I came across that way just saying with the 5lbs he conceded on the day he came out of the race with more credit than Vautour. Of course Vautour will improve from a debut run but given how incredible he looked when we last see him on course you have to say the run was underwhelming so perhaps I am being a touch harsh about him. FWIW I feel he has a fantastic chance in the GC I just don't feel Kempton will bring out the best in him and if I really went into the form I'd struggle to find a piece of form that makes me think his current price for the KG is justified as it all seems to be about potential whereas at Cheltenham at least we know he has been there & done it twice now with both performances being by far his best visually and in the formbook so I'd much rather cover him in March than december personally. I guess that's what I was trying to say, Maybe I dressed it up a bit incorrectly. |
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You could well be right, my personal opinion is if he doesnt win the King George then he wont win the Gold Cup.
I have a strong feeling he will be ridden as if hes a strong stayer in Kempton, i can see him being in front a long way from home, and i will be surprised if hes caught. Anyway hopefully he gets there in one piece, because in my book if ever there was a horse made for Kempton, this is it. |
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Some would argue that a horse made for Kempton should not be jumping left handed at Ascot.
Just saying. |
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It was more his pinpoint jumping i was referring to, yes hopefully there wont be any repeated left hand jumping.
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Anyone thought about the possibility of Vautour going to Leopardstown and Djakadam to Kempton?
Leopardstown being left handed could suit V better and D don't mind either. Not saying it will happen of course,but it could be on their minds. |
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Not a prayer buddeliea, but a huge bearing on the King George will be the participation or otherwise of Coneygree. If that turns up then it's a different race completely
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Problem with the Lexus is that the ground tends to be on the Soft side whereas the KG normally has some decent ground. I'm sure they'd want the latter when tackling 3m for the first time. The jumping to the left issue has really put a spanner in the works. Would be great to see him in Leopardstown.
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I'd be seriously tempted to switch the two. Vautour has ran right handed three times since joining Mullins, and, other than the shock defeat to Clarcam where he wasn't right, they seem to be his least impressive performances. The last run at Ascot and two runs in his novice hurdle campaign: a 3/4 length beating of Western Boy and his workmanlike victory at Punchestown. I suspect he may just be more comfortable going left handed.
The ground is of course a factor though, so connections wouldn't be considering running Vautour in the Lexus if it looked like it was going to be too soft. |