Cheltenham Festival
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After today, at least we know Douvan can jump a fence. Unlike last years confusion with Vautour and his target, there's no Un De Sceaux type to avoid and I've yet to hear a comment from owner/trainer/jockey that suggests he will be upped in trip. Paddy Power amongst others still have him at 12/1 for the JLT, pretty much suggests he is Arkle bound.
Apart from not much value at 7/4 this far away from the festival, who are the dangers? He was head and shoulders above last years novice hurdlers. Just looking through Odds Checker, next in the market is Sizing John at 14/1. I've seen nothing from his 2 runs over fences to suggest he is capable of reversing hurdles form with Douvan.
Shaneshill at 14/1 - no idea of his target but again, would need to improve a fair bit to reverse hurdles form with Douvan.
Lami Serge 14/1 - Henderson recently stated on ATR interview with Matt Chapman he got injured in the Supreme, still a lot to prove.
Kitten Rock 14/1 - entitled to improve but wasn't overly impressed with chase debut.
Garde Le Victoire 16/1 - Johnson seems to think he is an Arkle type but Hobbs said in an interview after last Cheltenham win he sees him more as a JLT type
Aux Ptit Soins 16/1 - Nicholls said he won't be seen until January and the plan is World Hurdle. If not, will miss season and go chasing next year. Surely not a 2 miler anyway.
The New One 16/1 - would appear they are keeping him over hurdles.
Vaniteux 20/1 - makes chase debut tomorrow, will need to improve on hurdles form
Bristol De Mai 20/1 - won well last time but was well held by Garde Le Victoire on chase debut
20/1+ - The Game Changer, Velvet Maker, Alvisio Ville, Jollyallan, Days Of Heaven, Tell Us More, Sirabad, Wicklow Brave, Killultagh Vic, Fox Norton etc ...
Fox Norton at 33/1 may be value, was giving Garde Le Victoire a lot of weight at Cheltenham last time and only went down by a couple of lengths - especially when you consider GLV's current price.
Anyone got any thoughts on the race?
Apart from not much value at 7/4 this far away from the festival, who are the dangers? He was head and shoulders above last years novice hurdlers. Just looking through Odds Checker, next in the market is Sizing John at 14/1. I've seen nothing from his 2 runs over fences to suggest he is capable of reversing hurdles form with Douvan.
Shaneshill at 14/1 - no idea of his target but again, would need to improve a fair bit to reverse hurdles form with Douvan.
Lami Serge 14/1 - Henderson recently stated on ATR interview with Matt Chapman he got injured in the Supreme, still a lot to prove.
Kitten Rock 14/1 - entitled to improve but wasn't overly impressed with chase debut.
Garde Le Victoire 16/1 - Johnson seems to think he is an Arkle type but Hobbs said in an interview after last Cheltenham win he sees him more as a JLT type
Aux Ptit Soins 16/1 - Nicholls said he won't be seen until January and the plan is World Hurdle. If not, will miss season and go chasing next year. Surely not a 2 miler anyway.
The New One 16/1 - would appear they are keeping him over hurdles.
Vaniteux 20/1 - makes chase debut tomorrow, will need to improve on hurdles form
Bristol De Mai 20/1 - won well last time but was well held by Garde Le Victoire on chase debut
20/1+ - The Game Changer, Velvet Maker, Alvisio Ville, Jollyallan, Days Of Heaven, Tell Us More, Sirabad, Wicklow Brave, Killultagh Vic, Fox Norton etc ...
Fox Norton at 33/1 may be value, was giving Garde Le Victoire a lot of weight at Cheltenham last time and only went down by a couple of lengths - especially when you consider GLV's current price.
Anyone got any thoughts on the race?
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Replies: 277
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If he was mine, I would consider putting Arctic Fire over fences, I think that would shake up this market.
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Visually the most impressive performance so far this season was Bristol De Mai's at Warwick, I'd dismiss his first effort against Garde Le Victoire and put that down to needing the run, he went through that race like the best horse and simply blew up....although I know that garde has beat him before that day also, I still think that Bristol is the better horse....having said all that I think he probably wants further and softer....so we're no further forward in getting douvan beat
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Vaniteux couldn't have been much more impressive
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Vaniteux really impressed me with his jumping. Looked special and destroyed Qewy. I took 14/1 straight after the race. Very exciting performance.
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Got some 14's too.... very impressive. They have always thought the horse was top class... maybe fences will be the making of him?
On the downside, I have always had a bit of a question mark over him liking Cheltenham but think 14/1 is still massive value. |
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It is especially when you consider that the Arkle looks to be heading towards being a small field affair even at this early stage.
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Definitely Duffy. That was my thinking too. Would love to know how Vaniteux and L'Ami Serge go against each other on the gallops! Those two at 14/1 against Douvan will do for me.
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I was at Navan yesterday.
Douvan is the real deal, beautiful looking, athletic and looks every bit a chaser. He will win the Arkle. |
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7/4 for Douvan after once chase is a disgrace, how can the bookies cut him ? Ok won as he liked but as a 1/6 shot should . Would be a layer at this early stage
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Will he be much shorter on the day? Ante post has been brought low by those knavish bookies. They should have their licenses revoked.
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Vaniteux couldn't have been any more impressive yesterday. Jumping was immaculate, took lengths out of them at every fence. Big run was expected from Stephanie Frances given the money that was down but was brushed aside well before the fall. Managed to get some 14's each way and I'm very happy with that. Could be argued Vaniteux should have perhaps went chasing last season but still young and that extra year over hurdles may have done the world of good. Henderson was very bullish about Vaniteux on ATR in his interview with Matt Chapman a few weeks ago.
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Ttebbob wins the Klarion Davvis chase in a canter
On heavy ground A useful hurdler,he seems a revelation over fences 20-1 is value Not sure his front running style would suit Cheltenham |
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Could line up against Douvan at Christmas, could be an interesting race especially with cut in the ground!
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Douvan wallops them in the Arkle
Now an even money shot  |
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Think only danger to Douvan will be whats in front of him,very impressive apart from couple of errors.
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Considering Ttebbob ran so poorly, I didn't think we learnt anything today myself.
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Nothing in Ireland will be beating him anyway.
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I'm sure Mullins hype flock will see that run as something never seen before, forgetting that like CCM said above Ttebbob didn't ran anything like 2 weeks ago and there are lots of other challengers in Arkle market that would give him more to think about than the same rival who keeps following him home in novice company.
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Like who? Vaniteux appears best from UK at present,who are the other challengers?
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like Garde La Victoire & Ar Mad.
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He'll probably improve with each run, but he does seem to fluff the odd fence.
He is without doubt the worthy favourite and the one to beat, but his price is a joke. I was looking at the entries over the festive period and was keeping an eye out for L'Ami Serge, and he seems to have disappeared off the face of the earth. This is surely his ground as well so that can't be an excuse? 25/1 on here for the Arkle, so concerns for any backers. Out for the season, or not schooling well? |
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You don't see too many horses cantering home in a 2m Grade 1 Chase on Soft ground. Top drawer performance.
L'Ami Serge had a non-injury related setback and will be back in the New Year supposedly. |
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Cheers mate, didn't realise that. I've backed Garde La Victoire, but I think I'm running for second, and that's assuming Dicky gets his way and he doesn't run in the JLT.
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Just getting started on this forum for the coming fez though started my portfolios some time ago. On Vaniteux at 20s, Guard at 16s and Bristol at 20s for the Arkle so far and from what i seen yesterday in Douvan i'm not worried so far. His jumping not the best ive seen from a novice ever especially that last fence and just the fact that people are expecting Mullins to be as dominant again 2 years running, yes he's going to get a couple winners at the fez again but nah can't have it especially at 11/10 theres far better jumpers out there even given the soft ground etc.
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Wouldn't be a backer at the prices of Douvan but you have to say that's the price he should be . When Gary Moore is coming out and saying Ar Mad is a 2m 4f horse and needs soft ground (best in England so far) . Douvan would win with any1 on his back . Making mistakes without falling is learning . He sorted his feet out that's the sign of a classy horse . Unless l'ami serge comes out and bolts up there's nothing there
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I'd be more worried about the rest of the Irish . Tell us more kitten rock etc
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Anyone hear anything post race re Tbebbob?
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On what we've seen so far what would people think is a value price for Douvan?
My thought is he's pretty close to what he should be, by far the best of these over hurdles, you could 'suggest' will be better(and jump better) on Cheltenham spring ground. I'd also be pretty sure he's only 90-95% fit. If anyone is willing to go 7/4 im in.  |
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Douvan aside, the best ASrkle trial by some way was the Cheltenham race in which Garde La Victoire beat Fox Norton, Calipto and Dormello Mo. Much the best English form so I have had a small interest in GLV for now.
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Robbo 7/4 would be massive value, you'll see a field again of 6 or 7
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Bristol de Mai advertised Garde LV form again today.
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Douvan keep beating an below average horse in Sizing John and he's 4/7 against last year top 10 older hurdlers Kitten Rock, Vaniteux. Then Ar Mad an highly improving horse of which performances I regard above anything that Douvan achieved. Then there's Garde LV who was a decent hurdler and seems he progressed over fences near 160 mark. If someone forces me to have a bet on Douvan I wouldn't do it at anything below 4/1. Mullins saying this was the best horse he sent to Chelt could maybe justify being as low as 2/1 but below evenes at this time is pure insanity.
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queve
That's why I asked what price the value was as stated I think he's about the right price.was at Leicester today wouldn't read to much in the Bristol form, it was like a bog there only just fit for racing. Bristol handled it nothing else did. |
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This arkle is heading the same way as a few most recent affairs, one stand out performer with people scratching about trying to find something that is inferior trying to get it beat.....if GLV won an arkle I'd like to say I'll give up the game but as I'm a compulsive gambler I wouldn't be able to honour that statement, but you know what I mean.
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Totally agree not in the same league as Douvan. The only dangers are nailed to the ground and while jumping isn't perfect hasn't looked like falling yet
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Yep be another small field.Kitten Rock is the the only challenger that might give Douvan a race.After the Arkle we will all be saying how huge Douvans ante post price was,just liike we did with Sprinter Sacre.
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but duffy you're not betting on something winning, you're betting on the chances of something happening and a horse like GLV near 160 rating, who won half of his races and with a nice Chelt record, its worth chancing at 16/1 or anything above 12/1 at this stage. A horse like Douvan who keeps beating the same horse is odds on is not worth following and people keep saying he doesn't have opposition I just gave you 2 hurdlers that were in top 10 in open company(Kitten rock, Vaniteux) and I'd give those alot more respect than a novice who has to improve to get to their level.
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... and not counting Ar Mad who proved an absolute force over fences and the clock shows he could've beaten SDG comfortably in his last 2 races when they ran on the same card.
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What sphere does Douvan need to improve at to get to Vaniteux's level?
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