worth remembering BDM is only 5 and would get just 2lbs these days I think in a tough race like the RSA.

I just cannot see LS matching strides with Douvan given his occasional bunny hops over fences especially over the Arkle trip.

Apology if I've offended anyone.

Timtin at a guess Back in Front wasn't in Kicking kings race and neither was AL Ferof in s.scares but I may be wrong but i doubt it

I backed  L’Ami Serge in the Supreme and I knew my fate after 100 yards. The doubt about him before the race was that he might not go on the quicker ground and that’s what happened imo. Meanwhile in the same race Douvan didn’t settle (on top of going down to the start too freely), and still won handy.
Difficult to say anything new on this thread, but I’ll have a bash. If you watched Douvan’s race last week on tv, you won’t have got the full effect of what happened after the last because they switched to a different camera at the vital moment. I was stood at ground level as near as possible to the last fence and I got a good side-on view. Ruby gave the horse a squeeze on landing and he took off as if he’d been shot from a cannon. I kid you not, I have never seen anything like it in a NH race. Think back to the Navan race as well. I don’t know whether he gave himself a fright at the last or what, but he bolted up the hill. You’re not supposed to do that at Navan in the middle of winter. And have a look at this horse in the parade ring if you ever get a chance. He doesn’t have the bulk that you would normally associate with jumpers. He looks more like something you’d see at Epsom in June. Yes he’s too short right now at 1 to 2, but I’d be happy to take that on the day.

BDMs run at the weekend is a further boost to Ar Mads credentials.
Interestingly, he is 3rd fav in the outright, but 4th fav in the W/O Douvan market (switching with Vaniteaux), presumably because the assumption is that he will be taking Douvan on and will cut his own throat, leaving nothing for the finish. He kept finding at Kempton though, in the style of a really tough cookie.
I think he's a potential top notcher, maybe over a bit further next year, which is what you want in an Arkle horse as it takes a bit of getting. If anything is going to match Douvan over the obstacles it's this fella, he's the best jumping novice I've seen this season and I can see the two of them going at it pell-mell from the off. At the prices, I know which one I prefer.

The fact that he's a front runner probably does affect the prices a little, but I think the main reason Ar Mad features lower in the without market than the outright market because it's factoring in whether he proves himself left-handed at Plumpton next week.

Connections seemed to believe that he had to go right until recently. If he doesn't perform next Monday, there's a good chance he won't be lining up in the Arkle, and if he does perform he seems the most likely horse to challenge Douvan to me. I'm personally going to be sitting in front of both markets while he's running and will be getting involved if he appears to handle it. Hopefully there's something half decent up against him.

Desmond - it came from his trainer saying he HAD to go right handed after his win at Kempton in December and for that reason (at that stage) he didn't think he was an Arkle horse. He's since had a change of heart, apparently.

Ar Mad will be trying to do what Ttebbob attempted a couple of runs back he was outpaced coming to the 2nd

Ttebbob put up a tremendous performance at Navan @DO on his only 2nd chase start. Now, just short of 2 weeks later he was entered at Christmas instead of waiting for the Irish Arkle and give him time to recover. Only Douvan hypers could take that run of TB at face value. As far as I'm concerned and I've said it many times on here, Douvan has only beaten a horse Sizing John all his life and his only remarkable performance was winning the Supreme from a stayer and took him ages to get pass him. I'm not sure there's a lot between Serge, Douvan, Vaniteux, Ar Mad and Ttebbob on their best. At the beginning of the season I also expected good things from Kitten Rock but he is way inferior over fences, I don't know the reason as he jumps them well enough, or maybe he hasn't come back the same horse after the summer.

Looking through the ratings its unbelievable how much Racing Post and Timeform overrate this horse, RP has him at 170 and TF at 168 p. It seems in this case only the official handicapper has some sense and has him at 160 which is about the mark I'm ok with as he did beat an 143 horse by 15 lengths but near 170 ?! Christ the hype, even with serious people...

I keep thinking I dont want to be sitting here after the Arkle thinking how the hell have i not had some money on AR MAD at the price he currently is.

His form is arguably the best of the current novices, destroying BDM which i think many thought was a fluke due to the start he had, that looks pretty special form to me now although admittedly he has improved over further, and gutsing it out to beat VANITEUX. That race showed everything, i have not seen a better jumper so far in the arkle than AM, he can jump under pressure, he finds like crazy, and i can see him being a very hard horse to pass and i can not see him wilting up that hill. So IMO we have the horse with the best form, great jumping ability and hard as nails who's 16-1. The only doubt being can he go left handed? Imo the juice is worth the squeeze, i have to be on ew and betting w/o fav market.

I just can not see a horse like VANITEAUX going past AM up that hill, yes Douvan and possibly Lami Serge may outclass him but a hard horse is needed for the arkle (like gods own second last year. The similarities with UDS and GO with AM and D are quite similar as peope are worried D will cause AM to go to fast, and cut his own throat. If i remember correctly UDS was held slightly of GO and he was seen if my memory is correct as much more of a tear away frontrunner at that point in time? so i can see ruby sitting slightly off AM) I can see AM putting these classy types under pressure and causing them to make mistakes, i keep having this image of AM battling them all off up the hill. Douvan has bad mistakes in him and LS has not jumped under pressure yet that has to be big negative.

DOUVAN most likely winner but i cant be sitting here cursing myself for not backing a horse who jumped poorly on his chasing debut , when ridden incorrectly, which just happened to be round a right handed track.

think I'm wrong reg UDS not making all so please scrub that point although he was ridden with a lot more restraint than he had previously

He's be a place lay on the day for me.

What beats him Duffy? Douvan the only obvious one, looks like he may have the measure of the rest, or at least be up to their level.

Not at the prices EO, he's probably about right now at 8/1.
Douvan still the most likely winner and as the contenders seem to be getting thinner on the ground with each passing week, he will be many people's idea of a banker. I just feel that he's not beaten a horse of Ar Mad's or Vaniteux' quality yet and so the race is far from a foregone conclusion.

Yes, I think he will be in front and going for it. As such running his own race, like he did today and at Kempton.
If Douvan sweeps past, so be it. I can't see another two from this field getting by him though and you've not named 'em either

can't see him as unplaced the way he battled the other day to overtake Vaniteux, he seems to be a fighter and can be seen in the boldly way he jumps his fences. In the Supreme Douvan was hidden in the midfield and when he did make his move it took him quite a while to get pass a stayer, if he's to beat this fellow he'll need to stay up with the pace and doing so damaging his own chances so I'm thinking Douvan unplaced is more reasonable bet than Ar Mad out of first 3.

don't forget the special performances Ar Mad has put in against the clock at kempton and Sandown. He's not the type to fall into a hole.

The only chances of Douvan being unplaced in the Arkle is that he doesn't turn up or he falls. I personally think RW will glad to take a lead if Ar Mad is going fast enough, Douvan is very adaptable and looks bombproof.

The quicker a horse goes the more exaggerated it would be particularly over 2 miles, it's because although he's travelling at speed, he's doing so going into the fence at an angle so their needs to be more corrective action taken on the other side of the fence to get him back straight again, how you're supposed to get him into a rhythm when you're doing that over and over again is a big question, it's like he would be starting from scratch at building momentum and having to do it over and over again.

Unless you consider that you're on the turn a lot at Cheltenham