Cheltenham Festival
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Arkle Chase
Arkle Chase
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No, not that at all - more clutching at straws so to speak. I personally think it's as Duffy says, that Ttebbob is immediately being asked to race out of his comfort zone to lay up with Douvan. As a result, perhaps he tweaks something, perhaps he just downs tools, perhaps he just simply wasn't able to go with him. Ttebbob in his previous race had been gifted as easy a lead as he liked and could do everything in his own time and it was vastly different this time where actually, good horses are upsides him from the start.
To be honest I struggle to see where the hype comes from with Ttebbob. He nicked a race over hurdles at Clonmel which was a total farce of a race, his chasing debut he beat complete rags with the fav injuring himself, and his subsequent start was basically a match with Shadow Catcher not off a yard and if you take that performance literally - beating a 144 performer by 40 lengths - you have Ttebbob running to a ridiculously high mark which either makes him exceptional or that race needs to be held at arms length. He's just not for me at all and I'll be amazed and happy to eat humble pie if he's within an arse's roar of Douvan this weekend. |
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And of course you may be right.
Just think the horse deserves another chance if their was something amiss. All I am doing is giving him that chance. |
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Of course, I'm not saying you're wrong to at all, I'm just adding my opinion to the mixer.
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The English challenge looks a lot stronger than the past two renewals. I think Douvan faces a much more difficult challenge in L'Ami Serge, Vaniteux & Ar Mad than the market suggests.
He has blown Sizing John, Velvet Maker & Domesday Brook away who themselves were comfortable winners of beginners chase. But I still think his performances are overrated. The most over-used phrase on this forum I know but I think it applies here "What has he beaten?". L'Ami Serge who had no luck in last year's Supreme is a much formidable opponent for a start. He might not have beaten much himself but there's a significant difference in price. I actually thought Ricci claiming Douvan was his best horse was very unusual considering Vautour and Faugheen could easily claim that title. On reflection, I think there's an element of him using the power of his stable to scare away opponents. His two mistakes at the last two fences at Christmas have been overlooked. Granted there were no mistakes the other day but he didn't even have a race. He could jump around at Ruby's own comfort. I think there's a strong possibility his jumping could yet get exposed. Also this comparison with Master Minded about him being hurdling fences and being quick away is a great advantage but I also suspect such jumping technique leaves little room for error. So who knows how that will pan out when he has Ar Mad hassling him for the lead and he's going much quicker on faster ground too. |
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I thought his performance the other day was something very special, forget the price visually it was different class, I keep coming back to last years supreme, before his problems started L'ami was already behind and races on and off the bridal, he won't be able to go quick enough IMO, reckon he'll be in the JLT myself.
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I thought L'Ami Serge was going well enough before Seedling fell in front of him. After that, he was never comfortable. The owners have Bristol De Mai so reckon they'll split them up. L'Ami Serge looks better suited to the two mile trip.
I think Douvan has a bit to prove myself and won't be getting drawn in by Ricci's claims that he's best horse or any media hype around him. His performance at Leopardstown was special but this was in the context of him facing two horses who were 29lbs and 35lbs inferior to him over hurdles. So he's miles better than them. Of course, like Vautour, the "there's more to come" statement probably applies here too. But I think he faces a much more decent challenge from the UK horses than people expect. |
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SYT where have you been
 Finally some decent and well thought of comments to read on here. Have to say, 2015/16 as so far been the most boring season thus far as far as this forum is concerned. Normally by now there is proper heated debate on quite a few of the championship races. Not this year, well apart from the odd im wrong your right but thats to be expected from those that haven't been on here long or are novice posters i.e under 500 replies. |
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Sh*t only just over half way there
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Didn't liked at all how Vaniteux jumped today, got wrong 80% of his fences and at two points looked like falling. Still he was entitled to beat Arzal but with so many mistakes I'm surprised he did.
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Vaniteux nearly half a minute slower over 2 miles (decentish ground) than Douvan (desperate ground). The way Douvan improves for better ground he wins bar mishaps.
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delsie - you saying than douvan posted 3m 27 secs for two miles?????
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delsie - dovan 4 m 17 and vaniteux 3m 57 am confused
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Van 4m 40s - 2 miles 90 yrds
Douvan 4m 17s - 2 miles 1 furlong |
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Van was faster around kempton obviously (right handed speed track) but over comparable left handed tracks the difference is frightening given the conditions
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according to rp van 3m 57 sec - do you really think vaniteuxs race was that slow - did you watch how quick arzal went off - i appreciate douvan is a special horse but do you really think he can go 30 seconds quicker than the 2/3rd best british novice on slower ground - please lets get a little perspective - shaneshill connections were saying they went too quick for him -
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delsie the 2m chase handicap won by dandridge was 4m 1.6 secs and he only carried 9st 11 i think vaniiteux did 3 m 57 (fast by 0.7 secs) carrying 11st - whichever way you look at it this horse has posted 2 top times for a novice chaser in a row now
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comparing times on different courses is the path to madhouse, comparing times on same course on different going is the path to poorhouse.. Ar Mad and Vaniteux posted figures worthy of CC compared with same day other 2 mile performances(twice each). Douvan has posted nilch. His only worthy performance was over hurdles in the Supreme but even there he struggled to get pass a stayer in Shaneshill and an average horse in Sizing John. A lot of faith for a single performance posted in a different code. His height of 17.1 definitely helps him over fences but tall horses are mostly boats eg. Don Cossack who go for longer trips as they're done for toe over minimum trips, but problem with Douvan is that he lacks stamina even for 2 and half so if he'll fail in the Arkle he'll become another example of a horse between distances, similar to Al Ferof who even with Nicholls hype at the time still started a decent price for his Arkle.
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Tim I agree with what you say about times but when you say Douvan "struggled" - well I'm struggling with that one.
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Douvan, I think, could turn out to be a top Champion Chase contender (probably more potential than UDS) but highly unlikely to match Vautour eg prospect of running in the King George or possibly any Gold Cup, for reason of stamina; nonetheless, looks absolutely nailed on to scoop the Arkle prize at Cheltenham next month with many lengths to spare over its rivals including L'Ami Serge if it turns up, I believe.
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@Arkle for the price he started in the Supreme I would've liked to see him passing a stayer in much easier style, Ruby had to push him and took half a furlong to put a length between himself and the other 2, only up the hill he extended to 4 lengths.
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They went a real good gallop though tim. And that was always going to suit a stayer. You are a much harder man to please than me if you are trying to crab that performance!
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They went a good one and yes it suited better Shaneshill but Douvan was held up midpack and didn't took any heat during the early stages. I'm not crabbing the performance, I said it was the only one that makes him a worthy contender in the Arkle. His price suggests he's already beat good horses like Ar Mad, Vaniteux and LS which he hasn't.. Ruby himself said as much in his blog.
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Douvan won 4 and 1/2 lengths and Douvan won 6 lenths but the margins in most Supremes are far shorter than that. My memory says one has to go back to Flown and Golden Cygnet for bigger margins but there may be more but plenty have won necks. Besides Ruby was biding his time on Douvan imo.
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If we're talking times, Douvan posted just 4.6 seconds quicker than the 109 rated The Mooch achieved over the same c/d half an hour later.
Whatever you think of Douvan, I wouldn't use his time from Leopardstown as a positive. |
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timtim,
You are indeed a much harder person to please than most here regards novices. Vaniteux, despite winning is latest race, was far from foot perfect (unlike Douvan, exception 2nd/last I think)), and L'Ami Serge - the same with several bunny leaps in its 1st race over fences, its 2nd was better but no where as good as Douvan; Ar Mad, is different with its quick and assured jumping that was the main reason he beat Vaniteux. Douvan, in last year's Supreme, only started racing properly from the last 2 hurdles; Shaneshill, despite not staying further than 21f, is a good horse - I'd back Shanehill over 22/24f over hurdles than the likes of Nichols Canyon, Killultagh Vic, Alvisio Ville, Windsor Park, to name a few, and it would have won the Neptune 2015 if given the chance in my opinion. Shame Shaneshill has not taken to fences as well as hurdles so far. |
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@Arkle - it depends on opponents but in last 25 years Hors LR won by 17 lengths, French Ballerina by 7, Back In Front by 10 from Kicking King, Jezki CF and MTOY were 15 lengths ahead of the field, Arcalis by 6, Al Ferof only by 2 but was 5l ahead of SS, Shadow Leader by 10, Indefence by 8, Arctic Kinsman by 8 from Pridwell, Flown by 10, Montelado by 12. About 35%( and more if we consider strong renewals like Al Ferof and Jezki) in the last 25 years were won by more than 6 lengths which is expected as after all its not a handicap race..
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Jezki and MTOY didnt even win the race and some of those bigger margin winners beat total rubbish and did very little themselves subsequently. In fact Douvan has already achieved more than most of those bigger margin winners did in a lifetime - such as Shadow Leader Indefence and French Ballerina. Anyway Tim bar a fall I expect to collect on Douvan but I've been wrong before and you may very well be correct.
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Douvan wins at 1/14 and warrants being the price he is now for a championship race
He may well win but jeez guys Please, give me a break!  |
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I didn't brought up the winning margins @arkle, you did and I've gave you enough examples of big margin winners which happen in novice races more often due to only 1 year horse population, of which there's rarely more than 2 potential high class horses. Only once they're in open company they can show if they're top class or just good ones or just bubbles. And what exactly has Douvan achieved more than those you mention? They all won the Supreme and thats also where Douvan is at this stage. Anyway good luck and hopefully you're on at much bigger prices.
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Well we have no way of knowing how good Min is compared to the British horses when it comes to a 2 mile chase.
I would not advise anyone not to back one(or more) of the Brits in this Arkle. Especially given the ridiculous difference in the prices. |
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Sorry,of course I meant Douvan!!!
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STS, price doesn't matter, we know he was supposed to win easily, but did you not see that extra sort of wow factor, plenty of horses win easily without making you sit up and take notice, then you get a display like that.
Put it this way, we could have watched him go round with no other horses in the race to mark him against and you would have still had to sit up and realize you were watching something special. |
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But would he do that against Ar mad,Vaniteux and lami Serge.......maybe,but then again !!
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Six weeks and one night and all will be revealed.
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I don't think they will live with him, I think L'ami will run in the JLT, think they were looking for an excuse to miss douvan and maybe vaniteux has given that to them...Ar Mad, Arkle winner, don't think so but you never know.
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You and many others Duffy,I ain't so sure.
Race will be interesting with the likes of Ar Mad and Arzal who like to be out front,Douvan as well. Should suit Hendos pair.....if LS runs,I personally think he will mate. We shall see, I just think it's more unpredictable than a lot do. |
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I do not believe L'Ami Serge will be campaigned for the Champion Chase next year with the presence of Douvan and UDS but instead could be prepared for the King George (KG) this Dec, and very possibly the CGC next year if it runs well in the KG; if by passing the Arkle and running in the JLT instead, a run in the KG later this year could be a probable rather than a possible.
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NTD has already said he thinks the JLT is the perfect race for Bristol de Mai. Any L'Ami Serge JLT backers need to keep their fingers crossed that changes in the Scilly Isles as if it doesn't, Serge will definitely be in the Arkle.
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I'd be worried that BDM would get outpaced on better ground against top quality even in the JLT, haydock bog right up his street as we saw the other day.
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The Scilly Isles could divert MOT to the JLT if performance is not sufficient to convince it has a good chance against NMH in the RSA. On the other hand, it could attract L'Ami Serge as it has the beating of KV on form, if not; BDM has also been entered in the RSA and the CH (only if it comes up soft).
I've this feeling L'Ami Serge would be campaigned for the KG later on in his career as it stayed 20f in heavy ground easily. |