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Paterson92
22 Nov 15 17:15
Joined:
Date Joined: 02 Sep 14
| Topic/replies: 1,081 | Blogger: Paterson92's blog
After today, at least we know Douvan can jump a fence. Unlike last years confusion with Vautour and his target, there's no Un De Sceaux type to avoid and I've yet to hear a comment from owner/trainer/jockey that suggests he will be upped in trip. Paddy Power amongst others still have him at 12/1 for the JLT, pretty much suggests he is Arkle bound.

Apart from not much value at 7/4 this far away from the festival, who are the dangers? He was head and shoulders above last years novice hurdlers. Just looking through Odds Checker, next in the market is Sizing John at 14/1. I've seen nothing from his 2 runs over fences to suggest he is capable of reversing hurdles form with Douvan.

Shaneshill at 14/1 - no idea of his target but again, would need to improve a fair bit to reverse hurdles form with Douvan.
Lami Serge 14/1 - Henderson recently stated on ATR interview with Matt Chapman he got injured in the Supreme, still a lot to prove.
Kitten Rock 14/1 - entitled to improve but wasn't overly impressed with chase debut.
Garde Le Victoire 16/1 - Johnson seems to think he is an Arkle type but Hobbs said in an interview after last Cheltenham win he sees him more as a JLT type
Aux Ptit Soins 16/1 - Nicholls said he won't be seen until January and the plan is World Hurdle. If not, will miss season and go chasing next year. Surely not a 2 miler anyway.
The New One 16/1 - would appear they are keeping him over hurdles.
Vaniteux 20/1 - makes chase debut tomorrow, will need to improve on hurdles form
Bristol De Mai 20/1 - won well last time but was well held by Garde Le Victoire on chase debut
20/1+ - The Game Changer, Velvet Maker, Alvisio Ville, Jollyallan, Days Of Heaven, Tell Us More, Sirabad, Wicklow Brave, Killultagh Vic, Fox Norton etc ...

Fox Norton at 33/1 may be value, was giving Garde Le Victoire a lot of weight at Cheltenham last time and only went down by a couple of lengths - especially when you consider GLV's current price.

Anyone got any thoughts on the race?
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Report RBoyd86 February 10, 2016 1:49 AM GMT
I keep thinking I dont want to be sitting here after the Arkle thinking how the hell have i not had some money on AR MAD at the price he currently is.

His form is arguably the best of the current novices, destroying BDM which i think many thought was a fluke due to the start he had, that looks pretty special form to me now although admittedly he has improved over further, and gutsing it out to beat VANITEUX. That race showed everything, i have not seen a better jumper so far in the arkle than AM, he can jump under pressure, he finds like crazy, and i can see him being a very hard horse to pass and i can not see him wilting up that hill. So IMO we have the horse with the best form, great jumping ability and hard as nails who's 16-1. The only doubt being can he go left handed? Imo the juice is worth the squeeze, i have to be on ew and betting w/o fav market.

I just can not see a horse like VANITEAUX going past AM up that hill, yes Douvan and possibly Lami Serge may outclass him but a hard horse is needed for the arkle (like gods own second last year. The similarities with UDS and GO with AM and D are quite similar as peope are worried D will cause AM to go to fast, and cut his own throat. If i remember correctly UDS was held slightly of GO and he was seen if my memory is correct as much more of a tear away frontrunner at that point in time? so i can see ruby sitting slightly off AM) I can see AM putting these classy types under pressure and causing them to make mistakes, i keep having this image of AM battling them all off up the hill. Douvan has bad mistakes in him and LS has not jumped under pressure yet that has to be big negative.

DOUVAN most likely winner but i cant be sitting here cursing myself for not backing a horse who jumped poorly on his chasing debut , when ridden incorrectly, which just happened to be round a right handed track.
Report RBoyd86 February 10, 2016 1:53 AM GMT
ps i am a VANITEAUX fan but think he'd be much better suited to AINTREE!
Report RBoyd86 February 10, 2016 2:05 AM GMT
think I'm wrong reg UDS not making all so please scrub that point although he was ridden with a lot more restraint than he had previously
Report Desmond Orchard February 15, 2016 2:41 PM GMT
Ar Mad clear second fav after that.
He went right at a couple, but on the whole jumped lovely and proved he's in good form.
Given L'Ami Serges weekend performance, this fella looks like being the main danger to Douvan now.
Report duffy February 15, 2016 2:58 PM GMT
He's be a place lay on the day for me.
Report shockster February 15, 2016 3:01 PM GMT
Violet Dancer out for the season with a fractured Hind Leg.
Report Desmond Orchard February 15, 2016 3:03 PM GMT
What beats him Duffy? Douvan the only obvious one, looks like he may have the measure of the rest, or at least be up to their level.
Report Eeternaloptimist February 15, 2016 3:04 PM GMT
There wouldn't seem much between him and Vanitoux on Kempton running. Him going at it up front with Douvan with a slight/strong preference for right handed wouldn't scream a back to me. If they do go at it hammer and tongs it's not inconceivable they could cut each others throats with something emerging to pick up the pieces. For that to be Vanitoux that one would need to jump better.

Another watching race for me.
Report Desmond Orchard February 15, 2016 3:09 PM GMT
Not at the prices EO, he's probably about right now at 8/1.
Douvan still the most likely winner and as the contenders seem to be getting thinner on the ground with each passing week, he will be many people's idea of a banker. I just feel that he's not beaten a horse of Ar Mad's or Vaniteux' quality yet and so the race is far from a foregone conclusion.
Report duffy February 15, 2016 3:11 PM GMT
He's going to be out in front forcing it trying to get Douvan at it, my opinion is that he won't be able to get Douvan at it, going harder and faster will exaggerate the right handed jumping costing him ground, momentum, plus the jockey will be wary of firing him into fences in case he jinks right and he goes out the side door, with him going right he won't be able to gain ground at his fences, all these negatives will cost him eventually.

I don't think he can win but I would have thought many fans would see him as a win or unplaced runner.
Report Desmond Orchard February 15, 2016 3:19 PM GMT
Yes, I think he will be in front and going for it. As such running his own race, like he did today and at Kempton.
If Douvan sweeps past, so be it. I can't see another two from this field getting by him though and you've not named 'em either Wink
Report duffy February 15, 2016 3:29 PM GMT
No, I've not, but I'm gambling that all of the above will combine to see Ar Mad fall into a big black hole so my assumption is that at least 3 will go by, he's got a lot working against him for me.
Report timtin February 15, 2016 3:30 PM GMT
can't see him as unplaced the way he battled the other day to overtake Vaniteux, he seems to be a fighter and can be seen in the boldly way he jumps his fences. In the Supreme Douvan was hidden in the midfield and when he did make his move it took him quite a while to get pass a stayer, if he's to beat this fellow he'll need to stay up with the pace and doing so damaging his own chances so I'm thinking Douvan unplaced is more reasonable bet than Ar Mad out of first 3.
Report duffy February 15, 2016 3:31 PM GMT
I think he's probably the 2nd best horse in the race, but the dynamics of what will be happening in that race won't see him to best effect IMO.
Report timtin February 15, 2016 3:34 PM GMT
don't forget the special performances Ar Mad has put in against the clock at kempton and Sandown. He's not the type to fall into a hole.
Report duffy February 15, 2016 3:34 PM GMT
Can't see how anyone can ignore the right handed jumping myself, he'll be compromised at every fence, is Ar Mad good enough to give Douvan a decent head start, because he'll be giving away ground at every fence.
Report slowerthanjohn February 15, 2016 3:35 PM GMT
The only chances of Douvan being unplaced in the Arkle is that he doesn't turn up or he falls. I personally think RW will glad to take a lead if Ar Mad is going fast enough, Douvan is very adaptable and looks bombproof.
Report timtin February 15, 2016 3:38 PM GMT
jumping to right is his weakness but on the other hand he's not slowing into them so I don't know how much ground is forfeiting but its a concern for sure
Report duffy February 15, 2016 3:47 PM GMT
The quicker a horse goes the more exaggerated it would be particularly over 2 miles, it's because although he's travelling at speed, he's doing so going into the fence at an angle so their needs to be more corrective action taken on the other side of the fence to get him back straight again, how you're supposed to get him into a rhythm when you're doing that over and over again is a big question, it's like he would be starting from scratch at building momentum and having to do it over and over again.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 15, 2016 3:48 PM GMT
He jumped true and straight at just as many fences today as he did to the right i thought. Str8 at the ones he was fired into and one or two in the straight, right only at the ones he was on the turn. Don't see it as much of a problem myself
Report duffy February 15, 2016 3:53 PM GMT
Unless you consider that you're on the turn a lot at Cheltenham
Report ReaseHeath February 15, 2016 4:00 PM GMT
he was under no pressure today though was he? Even GM admits it's not ideal but he's also correct that they have to go for it.Lots of things can happen, if he's leading and jumping well, the others might follow him right!

No bet in Arkle,been keen to oppose Douvan on the day but the events of the last few days making it increasingly difficult to see how.
Report scooby91 February 15, 2016 4:00 PM GMT
Violet dancer out for the season
Report duffy February 15, 2016 4:10 PM GMT
Yes and was that the first we heard about it when Harvey asked Moore in that interview, I wonder when it would have been public knowledge otherwise, I'm sure the horse must have had his supporters unawares.
Report buddeliea February 15, 2016 5:18 PM GMT
Really impressed with Ar Mad again today. Put to bed my anxiety of him going right hanged at his fences. He did do it at some but not enough to stop me taking the 9/1 available. He jumped straight at some and seemed to do that more when the pace increased.
Has the best form of the brits,and should be interesting race to watch with Douvan who don't like to hang around.
Mind you Vaniteux might well get the run of the race sitting in behind.

Game on!!
Report shockster February 15, 2016 6:01 PM GMT
I'd def back Vaniteux in a match bet at Cheltenham versus Ar Mad. Not much between them at Kempton and I'd expect the course to suit Vaniteux more.  Having said that neither have an earthly of beating Douvan barring accidents.
Report buddeliea February 15, 2016 6:06 PM GMT
Yeh Shock,no doubt a lot will agree,but show me some form that says Douvan is so far ahead.
Report shockster February 15, 2016 6:16 PM GMT
I think it's the manner of his wins.  You know how it is and I think you're a bit like me who tries to find one to beat the hotpot, but sometimes you just know.
Report shockster February 15, 2016 6:18 PM GMT
LOL I backed Violet Dancer W/O Douvan yesterday and thought I'd done well at 33/1 EW.  What a difference a day makes.Laugh
Report buddeliea February 15, 2016 6:48 PM GMT
Thats the thing Shock,i just don't know!! Yes I do look for ones to beat a shortie, especially with novice chases, and ive found one here,well two actually,cos like Ar Mad you have to like Vaniteux.
Ive watched Douvan and ive watched Ar Mad, I don't see one clear of the other.
The arkle has become a very fascinating race for me now.
Report shockster February 15, 2016 6:50 PM GMT
Well I'm on Vaniteux at 14/1 EW but think I'm playing for places only.  Not long till we find out.
Report impossible123 February 15, 2016 6:51 PM GMT
Has Ar Mad improved since beating Vaniteux?
Report shockster February 15, 2016 6:52 PM GMT
Who knows?
Report buddeliea February 15, 2016 6:57 PM GMT
I was going to say that!!
Report shockster February 15, 2016 7:05 PM GMT
Twitter saying Ar Mad out!!!!Sad
Report buddeliea February 15, 2016 7:21 PM GMT
What you on about Shock?
Report shockster February 15, 2016 7:23 PM GMT
Matt Chapman on ATR now said he's trying to get hold of the Moores to clarify. Been reported he injured himself today.  I think it might be someone getting confused with Violet Dancer.
Report buddeliea February 15, 2016 7:25 PM GMT
Ok thanks mate.
Could be the shortest bet ive ever had antepost!!
Report scooby91 February 15, 2016 7:42 PM GMT
Ar mad is lame after his win at punchestown and hasn't been asessed yet.
Report shockster February 15, 2016 7:42 PM GMT
Ar Mad is lame and it is official but the vet has not seen him yet.
Report scooby91 February 15, 2016 7:42 PM GMT
That's oficcially from the Moore family
Report scooby91 February 15, 2016 7:44 PM GMT
I think my atr feed is slightly quicker shockster
Report Graeme83 February 15, 2016 7:44 PM GMT
Horse would have been lame after race, so if he's out i'd want a refund had i placed a bet.
Report shockster February 15, 2016 7:47 PM GMT
You're just a better typist ScoobyGrin
Report scooby91 February 15, 2016 7:48 PM GMT
Hopefully he's not out for any backers.
Report buddeliea February 15, 2016 9:04 PM GMT
So he was lame when I placed the bet.......FFS!!!

Just hope he's ok and they still have a horse,he's bloody exciting prospect. Hopefully just a minor thing.
Not having much luck are they.
traffic fluide, violet dancer and now ar mad.
Report ACStafford February 15, 2016 10:56 PM GMT
Shortest antepost bet I've ever had. I've made an effort to cut right back on antepost this year. He was my third without nrnb and my second non runner.
Report needbinoculars February 15, 2016 11:17 PM GMT
Quite like garde le Victoire on the stats. He doesn't look a natural jumper - very low over fences but Hobbs has a great record in this with 1 winner and 3 placed in last 10 years. Nobody could say menorah or planet of sound were very proficient over the larger obstacles especially in their novice year. I also like the fact he's won over 2.5 miles which 6 of the last 10 winners also have. In my mind I cannot see him getting anywhere near douvan but a little ew nibble might pay.
Report ACStafford February 15, 2016 11:32 PM GMT
I was under the impression he was more likely to run in the JLT, but I don't have any evidence to back that up. Has been campaigned more like an Arkle horse, but thought they'd want to avoid Douvan.
Report shockster February 16, 2016 8:54 AM GMT
GLV was shortened by most bookies yesterday for the JLT.  Much bigger on the exchange also for the Arkle.  Things could change though if the Non runners keep mounting.
Report paulo47 February 16, 2016 9:31 AM GMT
Yep 70s Violet Dancer , just moaning about it to my mate who said ' shame about Ar Mad , ashamed to tell him had just backed that too post Plumpton.
Report shockster February 16, 2016 11:35 AM GMT
Trainer States Ar Mad out for the season. Sad
Report buddeliea February 16, 2016 12:22 PM GMT
Absolutely gutted.
Was really excited about his presence in the race competing with Douvan up front,could have been some sight.
Yep,really excited about the prospect.Now its just the opposite for me.
Yeh,losing money in that way is hard to take,hearing him being lame not long after placing my bet!!.
But the race itself has lost out as well.
Report buddeliea February 16, 2016 12:38 PM GMT
Graeme83
         Graeme83
  15 Feb 16 19:44 
Joined:   21 Sep 07      | Topic/replies: 8,733  | Blogger: Graeme83's blog

Horse would have been lame after race, so if he's out i'd want a refund had i placed a bet.

Tried that Graeme,e-mailed Fred,but just spouted rules of ante post.
yeh I know all that I say, and have had this many times over the years, but never have I backed a horse that was lame at the time of the bet!! just thought they might want to consider a refund for future relations between bookie and punter....kind of goodwill gesture if yer like.
Came back and spouted the rules of ante post again!! Basically tough luck.
I might try phoning and speak to someone with some authority, but I doubt that would do any good.

Normally take non runners on the chin as we all do, but this one is tough to take.
Report buddeliea February 16, 2016 12:40 PM GMT
If anyone has some good advice,would be much appreciated.
Report HaylingBilly February 16, 2016 12:51 PM GMT
My best advice. Don't waste your breath budd. Sorry to say. Am in the same boat.
Report buddeliea February 16, 2016 1:01 PM GMT
Yeh,you probably right Bill.
Thanks anyway mate.
Report shockster February 16, 2016 1:04 PM GMT
Budd, I backed Violet Dancer Sunday morning.  Pretty obvious he must have had a fractured leg on Saturday after the race I'd have thought (maybe not) and trainer doesn't say anything until asked on ATR on the Monday!!!!!

They don't have to tell us their targets, but only decent to tell us if they are injured.
Report nostaw_01 February 16, 2016 1:08 PM GMT
Budd I think one of the issues is that the trainer said himself after the race that horses come back lame all the time after races and can be fine a few days later so I'm not sure the "being lame" argument is going to change their mind unfortunately. Haven't backed the horse myself but would have made the race much more interesting.
Report Desmond Orchard February 16, 2016 1:19 PM GMT
Well, that's a huge blow regarding Ar Mad. Not just for my book, but for the race as well (although boy am I feeling the pain in my wallet...... No matter I'll get it back the first Saturday in December when he gags up in the Tingle Creek).
It's hard to see anyone putting it to Douvan now, no doubt Hendo will be disappointed as I expect his plan for Van was to pick up the pieces if Ar Mad and Douvan cut each others throats.
I doubt I'll have another bet in the race.
Report buddeliea February 16, 2016 5:15 PM GMT
oh well it was worth a try lads.
Think in future I might wait a day or so before backing a horse that's just run!!
Might miss a point or two but better than what happened yesterday.
Report impossible123 February 16, 2016 5:32 PM GMT
Indeed, I thought Ar Mad could possibly give Douvan a race; it is so unfortunate for the horse and trainer to suffer the same fate as his stable mate. Money down the drain for me nevertheless greater disappointment for horse and trainer.

Looking more and more of a 'walkover' for Douvan, all things being equal - 2/5 sp perhaps on race day.
Report simdog84 February 16, 2016 5:46 PM GMT
how many runners do people think there will be in the arkle now?? wouldn't surprise me if only half a dozen turn up
Report stevo1 February 16, 2016 7:34 PM GMT
Wont be double figures for sure,only danger to fav is the fences. Tuesday looking pretty crap day normally day i look forward to of all days.
Report HaylingBilly February 16, 2016 8:36 PM GMT
Not a crap day if you like watching good horses jump hurdles/fences..........watching Douvan, Faugheen and hopefully Annie Power in Festival Championship races is what the games is all about for me. Plenty of other races in the week to lose money on !!!
Report stevo1 February 16, 2016 8:43 PM GMT
Sorry wrong wording uncompetive in Arkle,Champion Hurdle,just disappointed as Tuesday normally my fav day of week. I am looking forward to seeing Douvan and Faugheen win as backed both fwiw.
Report HaylingBilly February 16, 2016 8:47 PM GMT
On that we do agree stevo. Less competitive than we hoped for that is for sure. Rally thought Ar Mad might be the one novice who could take on Douvan over 2miles and I did hope Nichola Canyon was going to be the real deal that was capable to get Faugheen "at it". No bet races now but great to watch.
Report stevo1 February 16, 2016 8:52 PM GMT
Cant spell, hopefully blip lto for NC backed him in without Faugheen market now 6/1 with PP hopefully shows his form. Got Douvan in few doubles like many others at decent prices. Supreme could be best race of day imo.
Report buddeliea February 16, 2016 8:58 PM GMT
Yeh,I thought Ar Mad could serve it up to Douvan. Maybe Vaniteux can,not much between him and Ar Mad on form.
Could still be an interesting race.
Report Joist February 16, 2016 9:35 PM GMT
It'd be a gubbing of Western Warhorse/Champagne Fever proportions if Ar Mad were to beat Douvan imo, two racehorses from separate planets. Ar Mad was beaten in a handicap hurdle off 115. If that can then go on to beat Douvan fair and square in an Arkle I'd be absolutely gutted.
Report ReaseHeath February 16, 2016 9:43 PM GMT
it's moot cos he's out injured but Ar Mad has much better chase form than Western Warhorse had - he's won a Grade 1 and a Grade 2 chase, Western Warhorse had run in and won 1 Class 3 chase.Ar Mad's handicap hurdle defeat is surely no more relevant than Douvan's debut defeat in a 4yo hurdle in France.
Report Joist February 16, 2016 10:12 PM GMT
I just mean in terms of disappointment factor. Probably a fair enough point about Douvan getting beat in France and Ar Mad getting beaten early on in career. I dunno, I just couldn't have the beast (Ar Mad). Like Vaniteux, Ar Mad is a perfectly decent horse who you'd love to own but there's 0 star quality there unlike with Douvan imo.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 16, 2016 10:55 PM GMT
I still think it could be a decent ish race this Arkle. Ok we have the hot fav that is Douvan and probably would be a shock if any one of the field were to beat him, but now with Ar Mad Cry out, would connections of Garde La Victoire now be tempted to try it? After all the JLT is looking a hot little race.

I can see 6-7 runners at this stage so to get 3 places at 1/4 the odds is still decent.
The 6 or 7 i can see rocking up are with my price i backed at in brackets:
Douvan NO BET though i had every opportunity to bet it at 5/2 when with a good friend of mine who managed to get 180 on at that price but not after a ptl in shop in Blackpool, again for the 2nd year running i should have took the advice Sad
Vaniteaux (20/1 ew 1/4 1-3)
Garde La Victoire (16/1 ew 1/4 1-3 with a small insurance top up at same price in JLT)
L'ami Serge (10/1 1/4 1-3 with a top up at 7/1 any race market 1/5th 1-3 and a small insurance bet 12/1 1/4 1-3 jlt)
Sizing John
Alisier Dirlande
Arzal
Tell us More

ArMad i backed str8 after his last win in Dec' at 10/1 before the Moores said they were worried about going left handed with himCry.

So basically the top of the bf market right now with obvious question marks over LS the w/o market could prove to be where it's at in regards having a bet but even if like me u don't like them markets, how many times every week do we see long odds on shots that shouldn't get beat, for whatever reason or another, get beatConfused
Report scooby91 February 16, 2016 11:10 PM GMT
Sts the game changer I would put in there and arzal was said by connections won't go to the arkle, but the way it's cutting up you never know. Not sure about tell us more, if 6 or 7 line up, 50s ew would look pretty big on his run at the weekend, all the risks involved though and surely something was amiss with ttebob.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 16, 2016 11:20 PM GMT
Oh yeah Blush The Game Changer haha i backed him at 25s 1/4 1-3 as well pmsl Laugh
Report nostaw_01 February 16, 2016 11:21 PM GMT
Can see this race cutting up to the extent where it's Win only!!

Trainer of Arzal confirmed after his Donny run that he goes straight to Aintree while De Bromhead said the following about Sizing John (yesterday I think), "He’s never run beyond two. But if he stays I imagine he could go well in a race like the JLT".

Also you've got GLV possibly going for JLT, The Game Changer hasn't run since Oct and Elliott said after his last run that the Grand Annual was a more likely option or he'll be saved for Aintree and Punchy.

So lets say they don't oppose, you basically only have Vaniteux and L'Ami Serge with odds which are currently shorter than 50/1.

Anybody see any value in the W/O market?!
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 16, 2016 11:34 PM GMT
With all due respect and decent prize money down to 6th there is no way this is a win only race for betting purposes. There will be 7 or 8 runners! There always is. Connections are bound to have a rethink and there will be some owners with no hopers entered keeping a beady eye on things too with a thought of popping round and getting the 5th or 6th prize. A very big annoyance to bookmakers as they will make this race one of the filthiest for each way in the history of the Arkle Excited
Report nostaw_01 February 16, 2016 11:45 PM GMT
Yeah was saying it a bit tongue in cheek to be honest. Really disappointed about Arzal TBH as he is the one I would take in the w/o market at the prices
Report stevo1 February 16, 2016 11:53 PM GMT
STS looks Vaniteux your only hope of place matey, unless Douvan comes down Sizing John and GLV JLT bound, Arzal not going,Tell Us More big engine but cant jump straight.
Report Arklearkle February 16, 2016 11:58 PM GMT
I would expect that there will be about 8 runners. There will be good money to be got for running down the field. I'd imagine that before the race we all considered Western Warhorse a hopeless rag. There are very few handy grade ones at the festival and if one sluices in hard held it probably means he's a good one - not many do. I sympatise with those who backed AR Mad and get no run but I couldnt see a right-handed jumper winning this Arkle - those who say he only jumped a little right or that he jumped straight at some were/are fooling themselves as under pressure at Cheltenham it would have been far worse. Tbf there was value to be had in that one was backing a good horse and anything could happen and sometimes/often does.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 17, 2016 11:02 AM GMT
Yeah stevo1, Arkle been a graveyard for me recent years. But still i come back for more trying to eek out the filth each way at antepost prices and hoping for 2 places or the win, (odds onners that look bomb proof do get beat too, how many a week) I didn't back Western Warhorse his year either Cry
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 19, 2016 11:48 AM GMT
I don't mean to worry anyone but

Douvan has just been done at 1.99 Shocked
Report Desmond Orchard February 19, 2016 11:57 AM GMT
Good spot again STS and again there's next to nowt waiting to back - has a look of the Faugheens about it.
It couldn't be, could it?
Report FOYLESWAR February 19, 2016 12:01 PM GMT
yeah well spotted sts , usefull  to have someone hot on the markets on here ! thanks
Report Desmond Orchard February 19, 2016 12:02 PM GMT
I suppose the difference is that the stable has nothing else for the race.
With Faugheen, although it drifted a little, what happened was that the likes of AF got backed. This lad is pretty much their sole representative, so I'd expect him to drift more markedly if there was a problem.
Maybe some thoughts about a CH re-rout, which would be preposterous! Unless of course he is going to do both, now that the 'cap is the third race, he'd get an hours rest Wink
Report Desmond Orchard February 19, 2016 12:03 PM GMT
I laid the fiver at 1.81 that was there, just to see what happened next.....
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 19, 2016 12:06 PM GMT
That fiver was mine haha Laugh
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 19, 2016 12:07 PM GMT
Douvan1.81 £5.00  £4.05
Ref: 62694018899Matched: 11:56 19-Feb-16
Report Desmond Orchard February 19, 2016 12:08 PM GMT
LOL, you ramping tw4t. Hook, line and sinker LaughLaughLaugh
Is that other fiver yours as well now? 'Cos you can feck off!
Report Desmond Orchard February 19, 2016 12:10 PM GMT
I dunno. A poster gets himself a reputation as the guardian of the forum, letting us know when the jollies are on the drift.
Then BLAM, he thieves £4.05 off an unsuspecting traveller, daft enough to put his trust in one seemingly so benevolent!
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 19, 2016 12:15 PM GMT
LOL i was just testing the water cos ive been like i do with all the shorties every fez laying him since he went to odds on. I stuck a tenner up at 1.7 and it was took within a couple of mins and then that fiver at 1.81.

I basically go along the lines of if nothings up and the market is merely adjusting to possibility of runners coming in and out, they would have sat there for hours/days without being matched until the percentage got close to the price needing to be at that spot.

I have all the major markets open at all times, its the way i roll, when something i think needs flagging up happens i flag it up on here. When i am out i either have me phone or the wife in the house with instructions. I am what you call a bit OCD with my market watching especially this close to the fez when so much is riding antepost.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 19, 2016 12:16 PM GMT
Oh, it was yeah Laugh but ive since cancelled it and put it on 1.9 Plain
Report Desmond Orchard February 19, 2016 12:24 PM GMT
You've trained the missus to watch the markets when you're out Laugh
Yes pal, that qualifies as OCD! For that commitment alone, you're welcome to my £4-05, you've earned it!
I'd never give my missus access to my account. For one, she really doesn't need to be knowing about how much I invest in this - none gamblers don't understand how you could risk so much, in my experience. They liken it to one-armed-bandits or other such games of chance, not appreciating the effort that goes into these decisions.
Secondly, as with everything else, she would develop an 'opinion' and I'd come back to a pile of bets on Venetia Williams' and Rebecca Curtis' yaks, as we need to be 'supporting women in such a male dominated sport', or some such b0ll0cks.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 19, 2016 12:36 PM GMT
Nah, my missus don't touch anything guess im really lucky with that regard. Nothing is a secret in my house. She has full access to all the files of bets losses and winnings on my computer. I guess it helps that they show a green portfolio and she gets her holiday in the summer each year after Cheltenham though lol Wink
Report Desmond Orchard February 19, 2016 1:53 PM GMT
Well, the money is back now. Drama over, whatever it was.
Well done to the 1.99 backer, oh and the 1.81 backer Devil
Report duffy February 19, 2016 2:53 PM GMT
STS

That really deserves a place in the top 10 aftertime, that's another classic from you there...you're a natural.LaughWink
Report Pg25 February 19, 2016 3:29 PM GMT
I think you could get some 1.8 ish on the day as punters will look to get him beat. 1.66 to lay ATM no reason to be alarmed just think it's the pure fact of a novice being short enough albeit in a weak arkle. I for one think it's a certainty
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 19, 2016 4:28 PM GMT
Excited
Report nostaw_01 February 28, 2016 12:32 AM GMT
Alisier D'Irlande running tomorrow at Leopardstown. Have taken some of the 20's in the w/o market NRNB.
More likely to go straight to Aintree based on trainers comments today but if he runs very well tomorrow they may well take a chance and no doubt his odds will be shorter on the day, plus money back if he doesn't run.
Report shockster February 28, 2016 3:55 PM GMT
Alisier D'Irlande easy winner again, but will wait for Maghull Novice Chase at Aintree.
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