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First Lieutenant, Ryanair or Gold Cup?

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Replies: 579
By:
resner not lesnar
When: 11 Feb 13 19:20
Graham Cunningh also saying they are leaning towards the Ryanair. I hope this is the case, but I'm fairly sure this isn't the path Mouse Morris wanted to go
By:
illinois_riki
When: 11 Feb 13 19:33
Not like Mouse to be swayed - still hopeful he'll go for GC - I think he has a cracking chance
By:
bigben
When: 11 Feb 13 20:02
Paddy Power have cut FL to 13/2 for the Ryanair but have left him at 7s to win any race at the festival. Ive just taken advantage of this rather generous offerCool
By:
johntucker
When: 11 Feb 13 20:14
I'm fairly certain that SDC & FL will be kept apart like last year. Especially with the 2m 4f bearing the owner's name.
By:
Graeme83
When: 11 Feb 13 23:47
i think the trainer should be heard...but if oleary has to blow out the candles on his own cake, then so be it. I'm having a dizaster anyway. I still see him as a GC horse.
By:
booster
When: 12 Feb 13 06:19
Great news if he goes for the Ryanair. Let's see Cue Card have a hard race on Saturday, a race which used to take it out of Kauto Star, who ran a very fast time in it before Denman beat him in the Gold Cup, then First Liutenant should be 4-1 on Saturday night. Having beaten Rock On Ruby in a Neptune then been outstayed by Bobs Worth in an RSA plus his liking for Cheltenham in the spring, he's got to be ideal for this race.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 12 Feb 13 06:53
Flemenstar now definitely out as well - can see FL going off favourite now.
By:
Ballydoyle
When: 12 Feb 13 10:23
Booster - think you're the only one that agrees with me. Add in that the owner & sponsor has nothing for his own race and the second favourite for the Gold Cup, and also that First Lieutenant has **** all chance of staying up the hill over the Gold Cup trip and those that have backed him for the Gold Cup really need to go buy a formbook, and it will be a nice 7/2 fav on the Thursday with little to beat.
By:
roobuck
When: 12 Feb 13 11:17
No I also agree. Backed him for Ryanair a few weeks back at 12s.

Lovely horse that has been much more consistent this year. GC for him would be a year too early imo
By:
roobuck
When: 12 Feb 13 11:18
Before I get thrown on the aftertiming thread, please refer to NH thread GrinGrin
By:
sintonian
When: 12 Feb 13 11:37
Kauto Star had a foot abcess prior to his Ascot win so I would not say it was running in that race which compromised his GC chances.
By:
sintonian
When: 12 Feb 13 12:25
roo, why do you think it is a year to early for the GC? He has more exp than SDC & BW.
By:
roobuck
When: 12 Feb 13 12:39
Because sint whilst he has scope, he has yet to win either a Grade 1 chase or over 3 miles yet.

I know he will be better at Cheltenham and on better ground ( if we get it ) but all evidence is that he doesn't quite get the 3m as well as others at the moment and so the extra 2F is certainly not in his favour. He has the cope however to get it in future.

If he goes for the GC I could certainly understand it and he would still be a major player - just don't see him as a winner
By:
booster
When: 12 Feb 13 12:48
He did win The Ascot Chase in a very fast time and I seem to remember that being given as a reason why he wasn't at his best. Next season Nicholls rested him between The King George and Gold Cup and he came and won it back so there could be some truth in it.
By:
sintonian
When: 12 Feb 13 14:29
He's placed 2nd 3 times in Grade 1's though, and in the Hennessy over 26.5f.

If he goes Ryanair it is soley because of the Owner leaning on him. No way Mouse would have campaigned him this way if they wanted to take that route originally. It would be a change of plan mid-season.
By:
roobuck
When: 12 Feb 13 14:34
Yeah you are probably right sint but also based on the evidence those races has provided. Flemenstar was always being touted as Gold Cup horse as well
By:
Ballydoyle
When: 12 Feb 13 14:48
Yeah but when see when you give it a go and you just can't win over 3m + you have to sit down, take a deep breath and go where you can win.

I just can't understand how some people cannot see that this thing goes backwards at the end of 3m and expect him to power up a Gold Cup hill over 2f further against the best horses he has ever faced.

Anyway, said enough - been bangin on for months that it wouldn't even show up in Gold Cup let alone win the thing.
By:
Ballydoyle
When: 12 Feb 13 14:49
Not just up to Morris either - the owner pays the bills and Davy will have his say also as in when they switched SDC and FL last year.
By:
bluebirdfan
When: 12 Feb 13 15:12
Morris has been well and truly bullied here
By:
sintonian
When: 12 Feb 13 16:25
It's not been confirmed yet, or has it?

Still not convinced he goes for the Ryanair.
By:
sintonian
When: 12 Feb 13 16:25
It's not been confirmed yet, or has it?

Still not convinced he goes for the Ryanair.
By:
roobuck
When: 12 Feb 13 16:45
No to be fair I don't think it has though the market ( with very little liquidity I accept ) is screaming it.

That said nothing is 100% until the decs and if something were to go amiss with SDC......
By:
jasey
When: 12 Feb 13 19:15
FL can go the Imperial Commander route,Ryanair this year,gold cup next
By:
Ming_the_Merciless
When: 12 Feb 13 20:09
He would have a good chance in both IMHO.

If Mouse strongly thinks he can win a GC then he will end up there - it is the blue ribband of the jumps after all.

I would have two bites at the GC if I was the owner, coupled his chance would be approx 5/2.

He is only just behind Bobs Worth on RSA form and BW will be going there without a run. He would have won the Lexus if it wasn't for Tidal Bay.
By:
Ballydoyle
When: 13 Feb 13 09:30
Wouuld've....might've...could've....

He won't stay 3m 2f and has been beat every time tried over 3m +. Jeezo...it aint fkn hard this is it??
By:
unclepuncle
When: 13 Feb 13 11:03
^ Think it's something called pocket talking.
By:
sintonian
When: 13 Feb 13 12:59
Same comment could be aimed at Ryanair fans to be fair.
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 13 Feb 13 13:01
FL left in both races after todays scratchings........SO CONNECTIONS HAVE yet TO DECIDE !

THE RYANAIR CHASE
THE FOLLOWING 12 HORSES HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED:

BLAZING TEMPO (IRE), BLESS THE WINGS (IRE), BOG
WARRIOR (IRE), BOLD SIR BRIAN (IRE), FLEMENSTAR (IRE), KAUTO STONE (FR), LAMBRO (IRE), POQUELIN
(FR), REALT DUBH (IRE), STAGECOACH PEARL, UNIONISTE (FR), WILLIAM'S WISHES (IRE)

GOLD CUP
THE FOLLOWING 16 HORSES HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED:   

BOLD SIR BRIAN (IRE),  CALGARY BAY (IRE), FLEMENSTAR (IRE), GRANDS CRUS (FR), HEY BIG SPENDER
(IRE), HUNT BALL (IRE), JONCOL (IRE), JUNIOR, KAUTO STONE (FR), KNOCKARA BEAU (IRE), MAIL DE BIEVRE
(FR), RIVERSIDE THEATRE, ROBERTO GOLDBACK (IRE), SIZING EUROPE (IRE), TIDAL BAY (IRE), WEAPON'S
AMNESTY (IRE)

Like to see Cooper ride him in the Gold Cup fwiw !
By:
unclepuncle
When: 13 Feb 13 13:34
sintonian 13 Feb 13 12:59
Same comment could be aimed at Ryanair fans to be fair.


As I'm neither it doesn't bother e wither way. My only bet in either the Ryanair or Gold Cup is Champion Court (who I have given up on after last weekCry) but at a push it would suit me better if FL went for the Gold Cup as it makes CC's(very slim) chance a bit better.

Having said that there is little doubt in my mind that FL would have a strong favourites chance in the Ryanair but only an outside chance in the Gold Cup so which race is best for him is a no brainer. And it's not like connections need the money or that this is a once in a lifetime chance of Gold Cup success (like it arguably was with Flemenstar).
By:
Graeme83
When: 13 Feb 13 13:40
Don't give up on Champion Court. Many horses throw up less than satisfactory efforts before the festival. I think he got stuffed in a race last year aswell. Lots of festival winners are the same Menorah etc....
By:
GoBallistic
When: 13 Feb 13 14:00
Every Gold Cup horse has a much better chance of winning the crappy 20f race. Unless of course they all go for it
By:
Ballydoyle
When: 13 Feb 13 14:05
Of course he's yet to decide....he's back up for SDC..they'll wait until last minute.
By:
roobuck
When: 13 Feb 13 14:08
And anyway SDC is also still in Ryanair - just their normal modus operandi
By:
LeinsterMan
When: 13 Feb 13 14:59
China Rock still holds entry in Ryanair and GC also. Will be interesting to see if him and FL are pitted against each other. I give both a great chance in the Ryanair and neither a chance of staying the GC distance....
By:
Graeme83
When: 15 Feb 13 21:51
I went back in with a small bet at 25 for the GC....i know Chapman is a reliable sort, but you never know.
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 15 Feb 13 22:00
China Rock been a blatant non stayer past two years but has been cruising up until a point. Be interesting to see how he gets on but I think his best trip is somewhere between the Ryanair and GC distance given got beat off 141 at the distance albeit as a novice.
By:
LeinsterMan
When: 15 Feb 13 22:57
China injured and broke down 2 years ago but as you say, didn't get home in gold cup last year. Went on to win well over 3m 1f in Punchestown. Is 3m 1f in Punchestown over 15 fences a similar trip to 2m 5f in Cheltenham over 17 fences? Albertas run ran in gold cup in 09 and emptied at similar point to china before going on to win 2 Ryanairs. Have a feeling that this trip will suit him but can't say it with any conviction
By:
sintonian
When: 18 Feb 13 13:27
Mouse saying today he favours the GC.
By:
Graeme83
When: 18 Feb 13 13:52
I wonder how much money Matt Chapman made the bookies from that stunt ?
By:
its a brent thing
When: 18 Feb 13 13:54
Tell me I've mis-read this?? Gold Cup? Noooooooooo!
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