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First Lieutenant, Ryanair or Gold Cup?

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Replies: 579
By:
roobuck
When: 20 Feb 13 11:52
Pocket talking from me as well. But deffo the best race for him this year imo
By:
Swagger
When: 20 Feb 13 11:53
Michael O'Leary is a businessman and a very successful one at that. He is no back of a clock as they say, he will be fully aware that there is no realistic chance of FL reversing form with Bobs Worth, there simply isn't any chance unless Bobs Worth falls or breaks down in the Gold Cup (outstayed FL twice - this is as clear as day from the RSA and Hennessy). Davy has advised the same so unless SDC gets injured leading up to the race then they will be kept apart as they were last year. Also FL had his shot at Bobs Worth last year in the RSA when Mullins was clear that he wanted SDC in the RSA but settled for the Jewson. Mullins will get his chance this year and as much a I like/respect Mouse, I think he will have to bow to orders and run FL in the Ryanair, a race which as people have stated, is tailor made for him.
By:
Swagger
When: 20 Feb 13 12:01
I don't understand or see any evidence of how First Lieutenant can reverse form with Bobs Worth. Better ground, stronger pace will also suit Bobs Worth and even with Mouse freshening the horse up and targeting March etc, he did the same last year and fell short against Bobs Worth when he outstayed FL and he looks to have improved this season. I would be amazed if Michael O'Leary didn't run a horse who should be favourite for the Ryanair, his own race, when he already has a great chance in the Gold Cup with another of his own horses! He hasn't made as much as money as he has with brainless decisions
By:
maelduin
When: 20 Feb 13 12:06
"The jockey has admitted FL just cannot beat Bobs Worth"

Since when has horse racing ever been so straight-forward. DR just wants a chance to win both races.

"the jockey made the final decision last year to split SDC and FL"

Yeah no difference between making a decision to run a horse in a novice championship race and the GC. Crazy

"the horse has never won over 3m....the horse has never won a Grade One Chase"

Sounds EXACTLY like WOA before he won the GC. Grin

"Bally you have had plenty of replies but you have eyeshields, blinkers and cheek pieces on"

It was funny the first time but now he's just annoying.
By:
roobuck
When: 20 Feb 13 12:07
On the other side of the coin I still think FL is a potential GC winner of the future. On that basis you couldn't blame him for having two bites at the biggest prize in NH racing.
By:
Tascro
When: 20 Feb 13 12:14
Lots of people on this thread should have a good look at last years RSA again. For the first 2 miles FL pulled the hands of Davy Russel. Its amazing he was still there with a chance jumping the last with him not settling for so long.
By:
Swagger
When: 20 Feb 13 12:18
WOA had beaten the Gold Cup winner earlier in the season over 2 miles 6 and was staying on when beaten by Beef Or Salmon on soft ground over 3 miles in his prep - and lets not forget  who he beat in the Gold Cup. He beat a Grand National winner, Lami and Forget the Past! If First Lieutenant was running against them I would also advise connections to take them on and chance the trip! But as it is he's taking on one of the most successful long distance horses in recent years in Long Run, a horse who he hasn't beaten and looks like a little Denman and SDC who could potentially be a machine and who owns FL! There is no comparison whatever regarding the decision to run FL or WOA in the Ryanair/Gold Cup, completely different scenarios, most notably, different and more difficult opposition and the owner already having a strong contender for the Gold Cup itself. Chalk and cheese
By:
maelduin
When: 20 Feb 13 12:19
"I don't understand or see any evidence of how First Lieutenant can reverse form with Bobs Worth."

Your right that's why bookies are rich and most punters are poor. Horse racing is so predictable. Crazy


If this was priced up as a match bet FL would still have a 10%-20% chance of beating BW on known form. imo.
By:
buddeliea
When: 20 Feb 13 12:19
Did that in the Hennessey as well.
By:
Swagger
When: 20 Feb 13 12:21
I am fully aware of the RSA I thought the same at the time but then he again weakened in both the Hennessy and the Lexus - you can only make so many excuses for him over the trip. Comments in several races over 3 miles of 'no extra', 'well held' and 'headed' tells its own story in my opinion
By:
booster
When: 20 Feb 13 12:23
His chance of beating Bob's Worth really rests on the latter falling or being hampered, or just not running his race.
By:
Swagger
When: 20 Feb 13 12:24
maelduin - The only way FL reverses form with Bobs Worth is if he breaks down in the race, falls, smashes through a few fences or is lame after the race so whatever that percentage is that is the chance he has in my opinion. If he runs his race I fail to see any evidence of him reversing form but perhaps I am missing something. I.e. In my opinion in running FL in the Gold Cup you are solely relying on luck to just beat one of the 3 main contenders...it doesn't make good commercial sense and Michael O'Leary will realise that
By:
Swagger
When: 20 Feb 13 12:28
Its like with Exotic Dancer and Kauto Star, he was just never going to reverse form whatever the conditions unless something happened to the latter. Sometimes I agree you can see a horse reversing form with a close rival (Ravens Pass when ridden correctly and not giving Henrythenavigator first run) but they have ridden FL in front and behind Bobs Worth with, if anything, BW winning by even further with FL getting first run. So i just don't see him reversing the form apart from the reasons Booster gave.
By:
buddeliea
When: 20 Feb 13 12:29
im surprised he actually finished in the hennessey,the way he was lit up.
By:
buddeliea
When: 20 Feb 13 12:31
if hes ridden covered up and settles ok,he could stay.
all the evidence we have though tells us hes better off in the Ryanair.
so do my betting slipsLaugh
By:
Swagger
When: 20 Feb 13 12:32
What are the reasons for Down Royal and the Lexus...
By:
Swagger
When: 20 Feb 13 12:37
To be fair it's all about opinions, and some would go for the Gold Cup with FL which is fair enough. From what I have seen I would run FL in the Ryanair this season and next season would depend on SDC - if he wins the Gold Cup then I would go the same route with them both next season, if SDC doesn't win it then they can have a go in the Gold Cup with FL next season as a stronger horse and in my opinion he would have a better chance of staying the trip properly
By:
sintonian
When: 20 Feb 13 12:58
Ballydoyle
20 Feb 13 10:51
Joined:
23 Feb 02
| Topic/replies: 851 | Blogger: Ballydoyle's blog
Maybe one day I will get a logical reply as to how people think this horse can win the Gold Cup...


You've had loads of replies, what you really want to hear is everyone agreeing with you and banging the Ryanair drum. Quite pathetic if you ask me.

It makes no difference what Davy Russell says, he has rejected him already, we know that.

Perhaps you should have a look at the ratings improvement FL has posted in his run immediately after December at Cheltenham. It's been 7lb+ each time.

And what was it you were asking for? Evidence. Christ, you just clearly cannot be bothered to do your homework.

IF they decided to run in the Ryanir, fine, it is their prerogative but having a good chuckle at punters for potentially doing their money just makes you a khunnt, i'm afraid.
By:
Ming_the_Merciless
When: 20 Feb 13 14:12
If he is running his socks off at home he goes to the GC - period. If he is slightly disappointing them they might give him a go in the Ryanair. Either way the Ryanair option is a bad one.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 20 Feb 13 14:47
Either way the Ryanair option is a bad one

Why do you say that Ming?
By:
booster
When: 20 Feb 13 14:50
Surely if he's disappointing he won't run.
By:
Graeme83
When: 20 Feb 13 14:59
You can all argue until the cows come home, but when i took 25s as everyone hacked into him for the Ryanair, i'd just have happily layed 25s on anyone telling Mouse Morris that it's not going for the GC.
By:
Ballydoyle
When: 20 Feb 13 15:18
Sintonian...you need to settle down son...

Here is a reminder of my "homework" as you call it...


Ballydoyle 01 Feb 13 13:57 Joined: 23 Feb 02 | Topic/replies: 851 | Blogger: Ballydoyle's blog
First Lieutenant's record at 3m + 22232. Never won.

Record in Grade 1 Chases....2P22322...0 wins from 7 attempts

First Lieutenant's record at 2m4 to 2m7 1313121P4...4 wins.

He was outstayed in last year's RSA....didn't get home to my eyes in the Hennessey...and was practically walking at the end of the Lexus.

I think you will find the majority agree he should run in the Ryanair.

"It makes no difference what Davy Russell says"...nah course it doesn't. Why has he rejected him in favour of Sir Des Champs I ask? Why does he state FL cannot beat Bobs Worth I ask?

Ratings improvement?...Makes him even better prospect for the Ryanair then.

How much you wasted on this for the Gold Cup cos I'll put it on the line...FL has FA chance of beating Sir Des Champs, Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti and I ask you this...if he was that good how come he ain't won anything this season?? In fact don't bother cos I'll tell ya - wrong trip. Simples.

He's 5s on here for Ryanair and has been backed in from 10s. Drifted to 22s for Gold Cup. So where's the smart money going Sintonian?? Your shout or mine?
By:
Ming_the_Merciless
When: 20 Feb 13 15:23
Either way the Ryanair option is a bad one

Why do you say that Ming?


Because winning the gold cup - or even having a chance is worth 10 ryanair trophies. All the NH 'game' is driven towards getting a GC winner, from novices right through, to have that chance and not take it even with SDC in the race would be crazy. I will leave that up to Mouse M.

Now if he wasn't running that well at home and would not be able to sustain even his Lexus form then they might try the consolotion race i.e. the Ryanair - which would look like a good idea on paper but in reality in the hustle and bustle winning would be unlikely - certainly not a faves chance.

My point is they would never give up a run in the GC for the Ryanair if he was in top form.

Now I have read the points repeatedly made that the Ryanair might suit better - it might - but they do not know for sure - if he is pulling up trees at home and the trainer says he must take a chance then its the GC.

So its a bad option - if he is running well it would be a bad option to go for the ryanair for the owner - if he wasn't running well then its a bad option for the punter.
By:
Ming_the_Merciless
When: 20 Feb 13 15:27
the only downside is if its heavy - then he may have to go to Ryanair.

But I make all my antepost chelt desisions based on GS ground.
By:
booster
When: 20 Feb 13 15:37
Don't really think he's at his best on heavy. Good ground suits him better surely?
By:
Ming_the_Merciless
When: 20 Feb 13 15:41
haha he's not booster. Well, very soft ground, you get the idea. He has won on heavy over 2m.

3m 2f over very soft will be too much for most of them.
By:
Graeme83
When: 20 Feb 13 15:48
He's best on good ground.
By:
its a brent thing
When: 20 Feb 13 15:49
It's a win-win for backers of FL in the Ryanair. If he runs in it, he hoses up. If the owners lose their marbles and take him to the Gold Cup then all us who have done our money get a small consolation. And that consolation is laughing our nuts off as FL crawls up the hill 20/30 lengths back in 8th,9th spot. He WILL NOT get the trip.
By:
Graeme83
When: 20 Feb 13 15:55
That's not a win-win, or much of a coonsolotion. Some of you First Lieutenant Ryanair backers are losing it. There is no consolation when you back something on the back of a Matt Chapman tweet.
By:
roobuck
When: 20 Feb 13 15:58
Who's backed it on the back of a Matt Chapman tweet? Not sure anyone on here as, I certainly didn't
By:
Ming_the_Merciless
When: 20 Feb 13 16:00
If there are 8 runners will you take back that 9th spot prediction brent?Laugh

Best Mate will not get the trip - Imperial Commander will not get the trip - Kicking King will not get the trip - heard it all before.

I have such a small bet on this horse that I don't know why I bother in this thread - I suppose I am a masochist. lol.
By:
its a brent thing
When: 20 Feb 13 16:02
Didn't even know of a Chapman tweet? I bet it in January on the basis that it can't possibly win The Gold Cup, meaning the Ryanair was a certainty. Sounds like jealously if you ask me Roobuck.
By:
Swagger
When: 20 Feb 13 16:04
I backed him for the Ryanair after his run in the Hennessy. His run = class but non stayer over 3 miles +. The intelligent race to run in would be the Ryanair so i bet with my head so I just hope connections don't make the decision based on what their heart tells them
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 20 Feb 13 16:10
It might be different for O'Leary, simply due to the amount of ammo he has, and the fact he has already had Cheltenham winners, but I wouldnt see it that way Ming. If I put myself into his shoes, it would be a very easy decsion.

I think its best to give each horse the best possible chance of winning a race at the Festival, regardless of what other runners you have, and which race is the more prestigious. To my mind, there is absolutely no doubt which is the better race for FL, and thats the Ryanair. So would I prefer to go for glory in the big one, in a race I thought suited him less? Personally, no. I would think this regardless of the fact I owned SDC, but even more so, if I did.
By:
its a brent thing
When: 20 Feb 13 16:14
Exactly Can't Catch Me. There will only be 27 Festival-winning horses out of the thousands in training. Its a big deal winning ANY race. Watching your horse power up the hill over the correct distance seems more logical than watching it tire and fade over the wrong distance.
By:
Graeme83
When: 20 Feb 13 16:17
Jealousy Brent. I' jealous that a horse i got 25/1 on whilst everyone backed it for the Ryanair, will run in the Gold Cup and will be there with every chance ? You would think you're sitting there with a string of blonde bimbos and sports cars, and not vouchers for a horse who won't even run in the race you've backed him for.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 20 Feb 13 16:23
The horse has 'a chance' in both races so it's ridiuclous for people to say he cannot possibly win a Gold Cup - lay me a tenner at 1,000 if you so confident.

He's rightful odds are probably around a 3/1 chance for the Ryaniar and nearer 14/1 for the Gold Cup so yes he has a better chance in the Ryanair but plenty of horses at bigger odds than 14/1 have won Gold Cups.
By:
Ming_the_Merciless
When: 20 Feb 13 16:25
the market is saying Ryanair (over 20's on here for GC now - (although just been clipped into tens by Laddy Lower)) so it looks the most likely for whatever reason, we shall see and good luck to those on at fancy prices.
By:
its a brent thing
When: 20 Feb 13 16:26
1 blondes, 1 sports car. The part you got wrong was being on a horse that won't run in the race I've backed it for. Good effort though, two out of three 'ain't bad!
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