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12 Jan 13 10:38
Date Joined: 23 Jun 06
| Topic/replies: 218 | Blogger: johntucker's blog
Where would you send him if you had the choice?
Should improve for spring ground (if we get it), can't see him being to best effect BER 3m 2f though so I'd go Ryanair.
Pause Switch to Standard View First Lieutenant, Ryanair or Gold Cup?
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Report Ballydoyle March 9, 2013 7:05 PM GMT
Sprinter Sacre was Evens when VC just launched NRFB...Simonsig was 10/3 with sporting bett in November
Report Ballydoyle March 9, 2013 7:06 PM GMT
If you look closely at an Overturn thread you will see a while back I am all over Simonsig taking this and that thread is a few months ago
Report Haemolysis March 9, 2013 7:06 PM GMT
So all you've cocked up is rocky creek? Full of it.
Report Ballydoyle March 9, 2013 7:08 PM GMT
I also fully expect Bobs Worth to be unplaced in the Gold Cup although I took 9/2 last December.dont think he has a hope in hells chance to win this
Report Ballydoyle March 9, 2013 7:09 PM GMT
Jeezo man....hard work this....look more closely....can two horses win the same race?
Report Haemolysis March 9, 2013 7:10 PM GMT
In light of how this thread is going - happy to disagree with you. Again!
Report Ballydoyle March 9, 2013 7:10 PM GMT
Cocked up Rocky...Grandouet....Puffin...Bobs Worth...and maybe Smad Place
Report Ballydoyle March 9, 2013 7:11 PM GMT
Might have fooked up FL also....but doubt it
Report Haemolysis March 9, 2013 7:12 PM GMT
The fact that you are furiously out posting me by at least 2 to 1 on this thread speaks for itself!!!
Report Haemolysis March 9, 2013 7:13 PM GMT
The fact that you are furiously out posting me 2-1 speaks for itself!!!
Report Ballydoyle March 9, 2013 7:22 PM GMT
Not really man....Cool
Report Ballydoyle March 9, 2013 7:23 PM GMT
Good luck to you though...hope you have a good 4 days
Report Haemolysis March 9, 2013 7:24 PM GMT
Ditto, I'm with you on most of the aforementioned anyway!
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 9, 2013 8:01 PM GMT
Ballydoyle Date 08 Mar 13 14:39
O'Leary will want Davy on board as well cos that other lad Cooper aint Cheltenham class. Everyone in the world is saying FL should run in the Ryanair including Walsh and Geraghty at a preview the other night, as well as Davy himself...forget what morris says - he'll do as he's **** told

FL has been targeted as a Gold Cup horse, of that there is no doubt but after the Lexus connections just know that SDC is a more substantial candidate. In fact, its getting boring talking about it and trying to convince certain people that they're just wasting their money backing him in a Gold Cup. I've said it for two months, I've told the lads to pile in to the Ryanair for long enough and I'll honestly just laugh my arse off if he doesnt run on Thursday.

Just checked - that "other lad Cooper" has 53 winners so far this season and Mouse specificially said the lad gets on very well with First L.

The gound may be 'good' by Friday - the (air) temperatures are set to rise as the week progresses !!! Devil
Report liverfan March 9, 2013 8:46 PM GMT
The Lieutenant is my fav horse of all time followed him throughout, the horse is a stone better on good ground, Cooper gets on with him much better than Russell, in my view he would win the Ryan Air  only needs to be ridden positively. However his trainer has him targeted at the GC ready to run the race of his life - he wins or is second to Bobs Worth. Be brave !
Report Ballydoyle March 9, 2013 8:53 PM GMT
How many winners Cooper had round Chelts?
Report Haemolysis March 9, 2013 8:55 PM GMT
That's the spirit liver. Let's go for it. Hoping the ground will have dried up a bit by Friday and he will jump for fun.
Report alleged22 March 9, 2013 8:56 PM GMT
"stone better on good ground"     will be soft all week mate
Report Haemolysis March 9, 2013 9:00 PM GMT
I know, but I get all misty eyed when it comes to FL. backed it in the Neptune and ew in the RSA. Owes me nothing, and would love to see it win the GC. Hard to imagine, but even us stats guys have to bow to blind faith now and again!!!
Report liverfan March 9, 2013 9:03 PM GMT
I had £150 ew at 8/1 on my 40th birthday to win Neptune on visit to Cheltenham brilliant shouting him home
Report Haemolysis March 9, 2013 9:07 PM GMT
That makes us the same age. It's an omen. Come on mouse, make the right shout!!!

Seriously though, has it fared that badly on soft this past winter? And it always improves for the spring on it back.
Report alleged22 March 9, 2013 9:13 PM GMT
That makes us the same age. It's an omen

spooky me too Devil

he improoves for the better ground mate and there will be no sun next week, ive backed it for the ryanair and not so confident now Sad
Report Haemolysis March 9, 2013 9:19 PM GMT
Either way mate, I'll be backing it if it switches to the Ryanair.

But hope it acts on the soft at least as well as it did in the Lexus. If it does that it will still have every chance. Keep the faith!
Report liverfan March 9, 2013 9:31 PM GMT
Just feel the horse is growing up, best jumper in the race only scared of Bobs Worth,  Nicholls horse is lay of the week even for a place
Report judorick March 10, 2013 2:26 AM GMT
how many Gold Cup winners had not won a race for 17 months before winning? how many Gold Cup winners had not won a chase outside novice company? if not none then very very few

just saying, on an objective level, the horse just does not win often enough to be considered a winner of the Gold Cup, not won at 3 miles, not won a race this season - all very strong pointers

as for the Ryan Air well that is ear marked Wink

soon find out
Report The Sawyer March 10, 2013 8:40 AM GMT
Morning Judo

Not sure about the 17 month bit but in the last 20 or so years, I think Mr Mulligan was the last novice only winner at 20/1 and my favourite Garrison Sav at 16/1 before that.

All irrelevant really as FL looks most likely to run in the Ryanair, which is a shame as MM seems to want to run him in the Gold Cup.
Report johntucker March 11, 2013 3:02 PM GMT
Still no sign of the saga ending. Plain
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 11, 2013 3:05 PM GMT
Will surely do a Dynaste on it and go the shorter route to victory ?
Report judorick March 11, 2013 3:05 PM GMT
any comments of any kind?
Report jasey March 11, 2013 3:06 PM GMT
With the ground being against SDC maybe he will run in gold cup
Report judorick March 11, 2013 3:13 PM GMT
I don't see the ground is against SDC, he's won a grade 1 on heavy, it may not be ideal but will be good to soft come Friday which will be fine
Report jasey March 11, 2013 3:15 PM GMT
Hope so m8
Report judorick March 11, 2013 3:20 PM GMT
the ground will be the same for them all and unless you are proven not to act then your chance won't be affected, best horse will win more than likely
Report resner not lesnar March 11, 2013 3:37 PM GMT
Judo, the current forecast is for heavy rain Friday so I wouldn't be counting on G/S just yet
Report judorick March 11, 2013 4:02 PM GMT
4mm by 3pm expected Friday
Report buddeliea March 11, 2013 4:38 PM GMT
None of us KNOW what the ground will be on Friday.
Claisse said it would be soft all week the other day,im afraid we will have to wait a lot longer before we know for definite what it will be.
And thats why we wont know what FL is doing till the last possible moment,and fair enough imo.
Report bluebirdfan March 11, 2013 4:54 PM GMT
With the ground like this surely FL will be Ryanair bound
Report sintonian March 11, 2013 5:11 PM GMT
They might make a decision after a few races have been run tomorrow.
Report Monksfield79 March 11, 2013 5:27 PM GMT
AS far as I can see the decision has been made over a week ago, but some are too thick headed to admit it.
Report sintonian March 11, 2013 5:30 PM GMT
People are referring to the Official decision, Monkfields. Nothing to do with being thick but you're in good company. Laugh
Report pigeater March 12, 2013 8:56 AM GMT
Confirmed for ryanair on racing post
Report Ballydoyle March 12, 2013 9:12 AM GMT
Never a doubt
Report Big Bucks John March 12, 2013 9:14 AM GMT
Where is it confirmed? Link?
Report pigeater March 12, 2013 9:15 AM GMT
Report Graeme83 March 12, 2013 9:17 AM GMT
These things happen. It's obviously influenced by the weather, so we will just have to get on with it. I'd have been more suprised if it was the gold cup.
Report roobuck March 12, 2013 10:11 AM GMT
Genuinely bad luck to GC backers. FWIW I'm not sure the weather has had too much to do with it and they have probably just waited until SDC had travelled over and confirmed OK.
Report buddeliea March 12, 2013 10:17 AM GMT
Good news for me,feel for those its not good news for though.
Report johntucker March 12, 2013 11:02 AM GMT
Was always the plan,  purely backup to SDC.
Report Ballydoyle March 12, 2013 11:27 AM GMT
Report its a brent thing March 12, 2013 11:31 AM GMT
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 12, 2013 11:45 AM GMT
Catch Me ifyoucan 11 Mar 13 15:05 Will surely do a Dynaste on it and go the shorter route to victory ?

Best of Luck to BJ COOPER Devil
Report johntucker March 12, 2013 11:54 AM GMT
Thread. Is now closed.
Report sintonian March 12, 2013 3:41 PM GMT
no need to feel for me Budde. I accept the risks of ante-post betting.

Hopefully Champion Court will serve it up to him any how. I've 11/1 on that, you boys have 10/1 on FL.

May the best horse win.
Report roobuck March 12, 2013 6:29 PM GMT
No I have 12a sint Tongue Out. I wish I'd had more on now

If it was a ground decision they could always change their mind, it didn't look at all bad today.
Report CheltenhamRoar March 12, 2013 6:39 PM GMT
Will not win the Ryanair,Will be powering home from a hopeless position and Davy will get off and tell them it needs 3 Miles plus.
Report bobbycat March 12, 2013 11:11 PM GMT
18/1 for me but had same for Gold cup, lets hope FL wins :)
Report buddeliea March 13, 2013 6:31 AM GMT
im just a caring person Sint.
Good luck mate for rest of week.
Report CheltenhamRoar March 14, 2013 2:52 PM GMT
Ran in the wrong race,O'Leary would want to listen to Mouse Morris in the future.
Report unclepuncle March 14, 2013 3:44 PM GMT
14 pages and all for nothingLaugh - not quite as bad as the last two 1,000 Guineas threads but still 'what a waste of ink'.
Report Graeme83 March 14, 2013 3:46 PM GMT
It wasn't for nothing. He the wrong race !
Report unclepuncle March 14, 2013 3:50 PM GMT
Report resner not lesnar March 14, 2013 4:38 PM GMT
If he couldn't win the Ryanair what chance the GC to be fair? I don't think the change of jockey at the last minute probably helped, and he did hit a couple, but fair play to Cue Card backers he won very well
Report sintonian March 14, 2013 7:29 PM GMT
Cue Card has speed. FL does not, blatantly the wrong race.
Report sintonian March 14, 2013 7:30 PM GMT
cheers Budde. Did my dough anyway! Laugh  all on Our Conor now.
Report judorick March 14, 2013 7:34 PM GMT
was blatantly obvious as I repeatedly said, well obvious to me as I just kept it simple and used BW to judge the form

sometimes people can't see the wood for the trees however much it gets discussed

gl with OC sint
Report CheltenhamRoar March 14, 2013 9:44 PM GMT
His trainer has repeatedly said he's a stayer,Well done Mr O'Leary,And not one winner for such a huge operation is almost embarrassing.
Report judorick March 14, 2013 9:46 PM GMT
Tofino Bay was desperately unlucky apart from that they've not really gone close

SDC will put that right tomoz Wink
Report festivalfanatic March 14, 2013 10:46 PM GMT
This may be a very strong tip for SDC in the Gold Cup. It is also a vindication of the winner's Arkle form, whose second to the monster was probably the best effort in the novice chase ranks at Cheltenham last year, bar of course one.
Report Ming_the_Merciless March 15, 2013 5:28 AM GMT
I don't understand the decision - he may have not being showing much at home and they thought it was the easier race which I prophisised somewhere in this thresd - if the ground had been heavy then ok but he even had his ground now and was a solid eway chance for the GC.

Ah well, eway backers did alright out of it..... and I backed Cue Card at an inflated price :)
Report buddeliea March 15, 2013 6:08 AM GMT
He was trained all season for the Gold Cup,then the ground came right for the Gold Cup,and yet he ran in the Ryanair??
Just dont make sense,surely the horse had everything going for a tilt at the biggie.

Owner just trying to win both races.
Reckon he has regrets right now.
Report sintonian March 15, 2013 12:02 PM GMT
correct Budde, trying to have his cake and eat it. Though I suppose they won't might if SDC wins the big one.
Report sintonian March 15, 2013 12:03 PM GMT
Not that I could back him, think he's should be 4th fav not second.
Report judorick March 15, 2013 12:19 PM GMT
going to get that one wrong too then sint, SDC is going to destroy them even with McCoy up although I will be holding my breath and watching from behind the sofa Laugh
Report sintonian March 15, 2013 4:16 PM GMT
Bobsworth, Judo. Wink

SDC ran far better than I thought he would tbf.
Report sintonian April 4, 2013 6:12 PM BST
Mmm. I wonder if Ballydoyle still thinks FL was going backwards in the Lexus after the last. I mean, even Stevie Wonder could see that, right?
Report CheltenhamRoar April 4, 2013 11:28 PM BST
O'Leary may have left a Gold Cup behind with that ridiculous decision
Report roobuck April 4, 2013 11:52 PM BST
Not surprised to see this thread rear its head again ExcitedLaugh

I'll admit I've not watched the race, but serious question guys, did beating Menorah really prove that much?
Report buddeliea April 5, 2013 7:13 AM BST
He certainly stayed well, and that largely was the point, although obviously Aintree is somewhat different to Cheltenham.
Report roobuck April 5, 2013 7:42 AM BST
But surely 'staying' is only relative to the horses you beat and that was the point I was making. All of a sudden by beating Menorah 1/2 a length it suggests he would have beaten BW at Cheltenham - really stretching it imo
Report sintonian April 5, 2013 11:40 AM BST
My point is you runs horses in races they are best equipped to win. FL has no pace for 20f.
Report unclepuncle April 5, 2013 12:35 PM BST
I think with the rain that fell on Gold Cup day it's hard to see how FL would have beaten Bobs Worth - might have dead heated for 2nd with SDC though.Devil
Report buddeliea April 5, 2013 5:58 PM BST
Well, looking at his last 2 races, its reasonable to say he was in the wrong race at Cheltenham imo.
Hindsight makes it a lot easier though, and during the season he did appear not to stay that well over Gold Cup type distances.
Shows how difficult some decisions can be for connections.
Report sintonian April 5, 2013 7:21 PM BST
I don't think he would have beaten BW either Uncle, but a 2nd & 3rd in a GC knowing your horses are in the correct race is much preferrable imo otherwise you'll be thinking what might have been.

Anyway!! LaughCool it's over with now.
Report bluebirdfan April 8, 2013 6:43 PM BST
Gold Cup next season surely?
He'll get 3m2f easy IF the ground is good (thats the key to him)
Report Slabster April 17, 2013 7:16 PM BST
Is the 3 miles on 'good' at Aintree all that more of a stamina test than 2 miles and 5 furlongs on 'good-soft' at Cheltenham? I think First Lieutenant just came up against a top class opponent on the day in the Ryanair. Still think the Ryanair was definitely the right race for him.
Report sintonian April 20, 2013 8:04 PM BST
Well when you consider the Trainer has said all along the horse has no pace and all he does is stay i'd say the Ryanair was the wrong choice and was completley down to the Owner.
Report Slabster April 21, 2013 5:21 PM BST
He showed plenty of pace in last year's RSA and in the Hennessy, looked to be outstayed in both races and others were finishing better in the Lexus, he even won a Neptune. Understandably if Mouse wanted him in the Gold Cup he'd be saying things like that in an effort to convince connections. That being said, if the ground is genuinely good in next season's Gold Cup I'd give him a good chance. 16/1 looks a fair each way bet considering I doubt he'll be in the Ryanair next year Laugh
Report Graeme83 October 31, 2013 8:16 PM GMT
Ding ding ding, round 2. Surely he will get his head in front at down royal. Nice price i thought.
Report judorick October 31, 2013 8:28 PM GMT
really fancy Mount Benbulben for that race at Down Patrick
Report judorick October 31, 2013 8:29 PM GMT
Report Graeme83 October 31, 2013 8:39 PM GMT
Mount Benbulben ? ....fair enough. I certainly don't like to disagree too much with anyones selection, as i think everyone should stick to their guns. MB finally got it together at the tail end of last season, but this is his re-appearance. I don't think 3m is Sizing Europes game, but this may be a King George trial for him, as he ain't no GC horse. Kauto Stone won this last time, but is he still there ? I really think FL ought to take this, and i was suprised that he was 7/2 2nd fav.
Report judorick October 31, 2013 9:03 PM GMT
does not win often enough for me, only 3 chase wins from 15 and 2 of those were in novice races, KS normally runs well fresh but is no star, SE does not really stay the trip and is 11 years old, not much else to say, Mount B won a good trial by 20+ lengths on his final start and will do for me
Report sintonian October 31, 2013 9:06 PM GMT
Given that FL seemingly had a penalty kick at the weights in his last race you would have to assume he will improve a ton for it. I think he is the most likely winner but want to see what the ground is first. If it is worse than Soft then it is wide open.
Report buddeliea October 31, 2013 9:40 PM GMT
I wonder if MB is coming over for the KG,if so this could be a race too soon for him?
Hes better going right handed so Down Royal will suit and if he is fit could well win Saturday,but I have this feeling hes going to be primed for Kempton.
Report buddeliea November 2, 2013 2:43 PM GMT
MB may well have won that today,but his jumping again lets him down.

As for First Lieutenant...that was not good.
Report sintonian November 3, 2013 9:01 AM GMT
Report bluebirdfan December 15, 2013 5:06 PM GMT
Any news in Ireland as to where FL goes next?
Report Graeme83 December 15, 2013 6:17 PM GMT
I can't see him going for any other race than the Lexus.
Report ACStafford January 3, 2014 5:17 PM GMT
With SDC now out of the Gold Cup, I'd imagine O'Leary would like this to head to the Gold Cup.
Report lead on January 3, 2014 6:47 PM GMT
Still a decent price 12/1 NRNB e/w for me.He has a lot to find with Bobs Worth but Cheltenham in March will suit.Bryan Cooper on board too.
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