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First Lieutenant, Ryanair or Gold Cup?

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Replies: 579
By:
johntucker
When: 24 Jan 13 11:50
If he improves for better ground like previous years he's bang in there in either race IMO. Can see this being a late decision.
By:
Tascro
When: 01 Feb 13 10:33
Anything confirmed either way? any quote from mouse to which way they are thinking?
By:
bluebirdfan
When: 01 Feb 13 10:52
Mouse wants to go for the Gold cup and always has, people presume he will go Ryanair because of the owner
By:
stevo1
When: 01 Feb 13 11:30
Gold Cup and if ground good/soft will go very close, just being trained for one race like the last 2 seasons at festival,and it isnt the Ryanair!
By:
Tascro
When: 01 Feb 13 12:00
u sure of that stevo or is it just your opinion?
By:
Graeme83
When: 01 Feb 13 12:02
If O'Leary cared so much about the Ryanair, he wouldn't keep on buying horses with the Gold Cup in mind.
By:
alleged22
When: 01 Feb 13 12:19
surely he would want to win the race that they sponsor???
By:
Graeme83
When: 01 Feb 13 12:24
I'm sure he would like to win every race. Has he even had a runner in the Ryanair bfore ?
By:
stevo1
When: 01 Feb 13 13:01
Trainer stated after last years Sun Alliance, going back for Gold next year. has stated nothing since to change that, but we all know how they change minds eg Peddlers Cross etc.
By:
bluebirdfan
When: 01 Feb 13 13:07
We just need the rain to stay away now, he's a serious player in a Gold Cup with any sort of good ground in the going description
By:
Graeme83
When: 01 Feb 13 13:12
If there was a change of plan, it certainly wouldn't be the trainers decision.  I'm not so sure anyone would sacrifice a chance at the GC to win a race named after economy flights. I can see why Pipe or Henderson want to win particular races. Some of you get me thinking with these comments that twitch and niggle me. If they did want a Ryanair horse, and they drop one Gold Cup contender(i think it's unlikely), then surely at this stage the best jumping GC proposition is FL, with SDC facing a tough test next week. I think SDC has more to prove.
By:
Slabster
When: 01 Feb 13 13:21
Graeme83 01 Feb 13 12:24 Joined: 21 Sep 07 | Topic/replies: 7,508 | Blogger: Graeme83's blog
I'm sure he would like to win every race. Has he even had a runner in the Ryanair bfore ?

Mossbank off the top of my head.
By:
Graeme83
When: 01 Feb 13 13:48
"Mossbank off the top of my head."




I done a search for Mossbank, and it just muddys the waters further. You could say that this situation could mirror the Mossbank-Denman one, where it would appear after doing a search that they avoided Denman and went for the Ryanair, and probably avoided Kauto Star also. Now we know Bobs Worth has beaten First Lieutenant on both occasions. Whatever. Let's see what SDC does next time before drawing any conclusions. I think FL is a gold cup horse, and he should improve. Bobs Worth is going straight there, and to me that is a disadvantage. BTW, if that ground was good running ground on Lexus day i think that FL or Flemenstar would have came out of that race the best horse.
By:
Ballydoyle
When: 01 Feb 13 13:57
First Lieutenant's record at 3m + 22232. Never won.

Record in Grade 1 Chases....2P22322...0 wins from 7 attempts

First Lieutenant's record at 2m4 to 2m7 1313121P4...4 wins.

He was outstayed in last year's RSA....didn't get home to my eyes in the Hennessey...and was practically walking at the end of the Lexus.

This horse is not good enough to win the Gold Cup under any going description nor will he stay the Gold Cup trip. In the Ryanair, he will be running against less talented animals over a trip which is perfect for him and would have a far better chance
By:
Graeme83
When: 01 Feb 13 14:16
It's all geared toward a certain race. Mouse Morris brings him on gradually, gives him a break then aims him at a target knowing that he will improve. This horse will be a different animal if he gets better racing ground. He doesn't care if a good horse gets beat in the Misses Doyle go on go on stakes on rubbish ground. This trainer wouldn't send him to the GC for the sake of it. He doesn't have many festival horses, so he likes to aim them properly. This is a war of attrition my comrades.
By:
Graeme83
When: 01 Feb 13 14:33
I just took some odds a little better than 18/1 on the machine. I like my concessions, but not this time.
By:
Ballydoyle
When: 01 Feb 13 15:16
Last 13 Gold Cup winners had previously won a Grade 1 Chase. He hasn't.

13 of last 14 Gold Cup winners had won a chase that season. He hasn't.

I'm not saying stats are the be-all and end-all but they do hold up at the Festival.

As previously said, owner has far better chance with Sir Des Champs.
By:
roobuck
When: 01 Feb 13 15:16
I've had a small bet on FL for the Ryanair as the price for the race outweighed the logic that most likely will go for the GC.

FL has a lot of scope and to my mind will improve past BW but not this year and whilst he is very consistent and worthy of a Grade 1 race, personally think they may wait until next year. I agree that the trainer wants to go for only one race however and has trained him with that in mind. The reason he hasn't said anything is because he knows its not his decision.
By:
Ming_the_Merciless
When: 01 Feb 13 15:43
As previously said, owner has far better chance with Sir Des Champs
Last 13 Gold Cup winners had previously won a Grade 1 Chase. He hasn't (sdc that is).
13 of last 14 Gold Cup winners had won a chase that season. He hasn't

Wink
By:
Ming_the_Merciless
When: 01 Feb 13 15:59
lol - my mistake Last 13 Gold Cup winners had previously won a Grade 1 Chase. He hasn't (sdc that is).
By:
jasey
When: 01 Feb 13 16:04
Balldoyle
your stats also highlight he has got a great chance of placing in the gold cup,and is a  double figure price
By:
jasey
When: 01 Feb 13 16:09
Ming
Are you saying SDC hasn't won a grade 1 chase
By:
Graeme83
When: 01 Feb 13 16:11
Ballydoyle - do you use stats for every punt you have ?
By:
Ballydoyle
When: 01 Feb 13 16:24
Ming - SDC has won a Grade 1 Chase by 36 lengths.

Graeme83 - I've won a lot of money using stats at Cheltenham. As I say, they hold up very well in mid-March.

Jasey - yes he may place but do you bet hoping for a place? I think there are stronger stayers. I can see him 2nd or 3rd round the turn and then fading like in the Hennessey and this will obviously be a better race.

Anyway, good luck to those who back him but for me the Gold Cup is between Sir Des Champs, Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti.
By:
Graeme83
When: 01 Feb 13 16:27
Hit me with your Ryanair stats then !
By:
stevo1
When: 01 Feb 13 16:50
One stat for Ryanair although in early stages is Irish havent won it in 8 years since its inception.
By:
Graeme83
When: 01 Feb 13 16:52
Fair enough Stevo. I wanted to see if Bally was gonnae use the grade 1 chase stat for the Ryanair, considering he said he think First Lieutenant would win it if he showed up, which i disagree with anyway as i think Flemenstar will turn up, aswell as one or two others who are capable.
By:
buddeliea
When: 01 Feb 13 17:22
Not saying FL would stay in the Gold Cup,but im sure he will be in better shape than he was in the Hennessey.
And in that race he ran far too free,and no surprise he did not get home.
He will be at his best in March,he always is,and will imo run a big race in whichever race he ends up in.
I hope hes in Ryanair selfishly cos i will get a free bet should he not run in the GC,and have him running for me in the Ryanair.
Backed him in both cos i wanted a Cheltenham horse on my side.
By:
jasey
When: 01 Feb 13 17:25
Ryanair has only been a grade 1 since 2008 so trends/stats are thin on the ground for this race.
King george is a good guide as well as a horse stepping down in trip
By:
buddeliea
When: 01 Feb 13 17:30
Albertas Run is a good guide!!
Laugh
By:
jasey
When: 01 Feb 13 17:33
Agree Bud,i have had a bet on FL for both(nrfb).
By:
Graeme83
When: 01 Feb 13 17:39
If you back the same horse in two different races, they only refund your first bet. I may be wrong, so double check, but i interpret the rules as being if you back FL for the Ryanair first, and the Gold cup second, then you can only possibly get refunded for the Ryanair part. If he went to the GC you wouldn't get a refund for your Ryanair voucher as the GC was your second selection and vice versa.
By:
buddeliea
When: 01 Feb 13 17:45
Thats correct Graeme.
I backed GC first,so want him to run in Ryanair,which to be honest i do think he has slightly more chance in.
By:
Ming_the_Merciless
When: 02 Feb 13 10:31
BALLY/JASEY

I had retracted the g1 chase bit - head up rrr'sLaugh

bally was saying having not won a chase that year was a stat against FL but he likes SDC.... who hadn't either. Confused
Happy
By:
Ballydoyle
When: 02 Feb 13 20:00
We'll come back to that this time next week....
By:
Tascro
When: 10 Feb 13 11:08
Matt Chapman saying on twitter he is going for ryanair
By:
jasey
When: 10 Feb 13 11:38
Oh that would be great news
By:
Ballydoyle
When: 11 Feb 13 10:03
That will be Sir Des Champs won his chase and will now go on to win the Gold Cup. as I have said all along, First Lieutenant will be heading to the Ryanair.
By:
sintonian
When: 11 Feb 13 15:59
We'll see.
By:
Ballydoyle
When: 11 Feb 13 16:52
8.6 Ryanair on here 27.0 Gold Cup...nuff said
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