Cheltenham Festival
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Sprinter Sacre - Arkle Winner 2012
Sprinter Sacre - Arkle Winner 2012
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Sint,
suggest you watch the supreme again,from the 2nd last,if that aint speed and a turn of foot,i dont know what is!! i would say that Spirit Son was outstaying them,AF sped past him. Re SS,i am just going on last seasons supreme mate,its a fact he did not get home,no argument.As i have said that dont mean it wont get home in the Arkle,but imo he has to settle better,which its possible could be his undoing,possible,thats all. |
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Judo,
you wont get any argument from me re the ability and strengths that PC has. What we dont know is how much either will find at the finish of an Arkle.I suspect both will find plenty they both stay strongly.But which is the strongest after jumping fences round Cheltenham is open to question. |
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we will learn plenty at Kempton! What a race in prospect! I hbave it very close between them (3lbs) so it will really help define their status
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Just seen Menorah running as well!!
Dont know how im going to get through Xmas day,plenty of drink i should think!! |
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Judo,
Where do you get the 3lb difference from? and where does the horse that mullered SS in the supreme figure?? just fascinated where you have worked it out from. |
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SS can strengthen up as much as he likes if he doesn't settle perfectly in a top class race every ounce of wasted energy will cost him dearly at the end of the race....he was keen at donny but was far superior so it didn't cost him, but i have developed another slight question mark against him, i am wondering if regardless of him being too keen if he may be another horse that doesn't find as much off the bridle keen or not, his superior class only just got him home in his first bumper and against frascati park he found zilch, although over further he looked to stay the trip...he should have been more impressive in those races keen or not
In a nutshell i wonder if the keenness is slightly misleading in giving us an easy excuse to why he never looks brilliant when up against something in a finish that is still fighting out the race. |
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I am basing that figure on my modified values for the ratings. 149 PC, 146 SS and 134 AF - but that is only for their chase form to date. It of course does not indicate how much improvement they have in them over fences
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eh? 134 AF??????
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Menorah, Peddlers and Sacre to meet in cracker
By Lewis Porteous 8:23AM 21 DEC 2011 TOP-CLASS hurdler Menorah will try to get his chasing career back on track in what is shaping up to be a fiercely competitive Grade 2 williamhill.com Novices' Chase, registered as the Wayward Lad Chase, at Kempton next Tuesday. RELATED LINKS * Arkle betting * Champion Hurdle betting * Free bets * Visit our Betting Site After unseating Richard Johnson on his chase debut at Exeter last month, Menorah reverted to hurdles to finish fourth in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham 11 daysago. His trainer Philip Hobbs said on Tuesday: "Menorah will go back chasing now and probably run at Kempton next week against Peddlers Cross and Sprinter Sacre. The other options are at Taunton a week on Friday or atNewbury the day after." Peddlers Cross, 7-2 favourite for the Arkle, worked on Tuesday and is an intended runner according to Donald McCain. "He worked well and Kempton is his intended target. It could be an exciting race," said the trainer. The race could have a significant impact on the Arkle market as Sprinter Sacre, impressive winner at Doncaster on his chase debut and 6-1 second favourite for the festival contest, could also take his chance. The same card features another Grade 2 in the williamhill.com Desert Orchid Chase,a potential target for the Hobbs-trained Wishfull Thinking. "He might run in the Desert Orchid or there is a two-mile five- furlong race at Cheltenham on New Year ' s Day, " said Hobbs. Another of McCain's stable stars in action on the gallops on Tuesday morning was Fighting Fifth Hurdle winner Overturn, who will take his chance in the Grade 1 williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle on Boxing Day providing the ground does not come up soft at Kempton. Only seven entries were made for the Christmas Hurdle and the race has been reopened until11am on Wednesday. Another of Boxing Day's Grade 1 features, the williamhill.com Feltham Novices' Chase, has also been reopened. |
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they are not on the same scale as BHA marks or RPRS
for instance RPR rates PC 160 over fences so you can see all these ratings are lower |
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149 PC, 146 SS and 134 AF
Think you need to explain that |
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i've been scratching my head too budd.
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they are basically the same as Topspeed but with a couple of modifiers included (which I am not revealing). I will update the scores after the race next week. AFs rating comes from the victory at Cheltenham and that could be upgraded but strictly according to my rules isnt - and failing to improve his rating on the second start definitely holds it down.
Either you are a ratings man or you are not. Budd has stated repeatedly that he doesn't care what the ratings are. So why then question them if you are gonna ignore anyway? BTW, this same method correctly predicted the 1-2-3 in the International Hurdle. Of course, it doesn't work every time and we are a long way from Cheltenham so lots can still change |
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Judorick
Your methodology has served Phil Bull and Jim McGrath very well at Timeform. Where there are no comparable lines of form, then race times against standard are likely to prove a far more reliable indicator than visual impression in a race. |
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if you are a ratings man why are you blatantly ignoring the RPR??
And by not revealing, really you are giving people the chance to say your ratings are b0ll0cks,which they do appear to be. no offence intended. |
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judorick 09 Dec 11 15:21
it is exactly how I thought it would be. Sprinter Sacre was already marked down as an Arkle contender. Beating trees 24 lengths has changed nothing other than confirming the horse can jump. Nothing new here really what about this comment after SS debut effort at donny? |
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Race times are notoriously difficult and unreliable for NH races. Do you record your own times from TV/live, or get them out of the Post?
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I did not have a figure for SS when I made that comment and someone said something like "we have a new contender"
when in reality winning at 2/9 on chase debut did not make SS an Arkle contender - running 3rd in the Supreme Novices did. No one was surprised at all were they. it was only a while later that I got a figure for the Donny win - 146 - and that is right up there in terms of winning the Arkle PC comes out at 149 for the second Bangor win (and that was a significant improvement on debut) |
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gonna answer my question judo?
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I am not ignoring RPR at all, I just happen to believe that speed ratings will prove more significant in Graded/Championship races
I use RPR almost exclusively when analysing handicaps because the differences between RPR and OR can be significant. And I am not revealing because, well why should I reveal an edge? |
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ok thanks.
They are very different though,but thats your choice. And of course you dont have to reveal,totally understand and dont blame you to be honest,but it does mean that people will question,but then why should that bother you anyway. As you say i dont take much notice of ratings anyway,rely on my eyes and the form i have at my disposal. It stands me in good stead for the festival normally,and i find it a much more interesting approach. Each to their own,and i am sure we will both have winners and losers,same as everyone else. |
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judo,
all i can say is, if you've got a secret formula that turns out to correctly have SS nigh on a stone better than AF on what we've seen on the track so far, then i'd be looking at bottling it and selling it!! fair play if it turns out to be the case. |
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it has correctly predicted some very surprising results over the years
the two things you have to pay attention to are: what type of track did they achieve the rating on? Some tracks produce spurious ratings that rarely transfer elsewhere - Worcester is a good example, I rarely trust ratings achieved there. Salisbury on the flat is another if the horse did not win the race, what level of effort (towards winning the race) did it put in when achieving a rating? When the horse was never competitive, did not run on strongly or did not get any positive comments, got beat a long way you can frequently dismiss the rating. (this is not the case with traditional ratings like OR and RPR though) |
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well my eyes,and form i have to hand,have AF ahead,so one of us is wrong,and if its Judo a long way wrong.
But if hes right,i want a bottle!! |
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i see For Non Stop is entered at Kempton as well.Hope he jumps as well as he did at Sandown,will be very interesting to see how he gets on against these.Think it will be a lot different race than the Sandown one,but should tell us some more.
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I can't wait for another piece of the jigsaw. Hopefully we get a true run race not a farcical crawl for a mile then a sprint.. that would tell u little of value
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of course all of these horses are top class and lightly raced, all remain open to significant improvement so any ratings at this stage are only a snap shot
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Every day I log on at about this time to see another 30-odd posts have been added. It's a real advert for just how exciting this year's Arkle will be that everyone has so much to say on the issue.
How many posts will there be by off time in mid-March? I am putting the spread at 650-680! |
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ive tried shutting up,but it aint long till i find myself off again!!
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you can forget menorah.
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yup it is THE race
simple as that and we jumps fans are enjoying it cant wait til kempton, then there is the irish, new years day at cheltenham.. then we will be counting down to march... aww yeah |
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Even though it's still early stages I will be a bit disappointed if Sprinter Sacre doesn't win or go very close in this. Main reason is if he doesn't he is going to have possibly even more of a challenge at Cheltenham. I would think Kempton would be close to ideal for Sprinter Sacre with his fast jumping and natural speed.
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MM, I'd go as far as to say that if SS doesn't win this, he can't win at Cheltenham. He has form right handed, there is rarely bad ground for this meeting and the fences aren't stiff.
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all you can be sure of MM is that he definitely fits the profile and has the required ability - he is a serious contender
have to see on the day |
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I don't think it's as black & white as he can't win at Cheltenham if he loses as it's only his second start over fences. Captain Chris was getting smashed up about this time last year. But I know what you mean.
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yes CC got beat a couple times as I remember, I mean either of these horses could make a bad mistake on Tuesday, get beat and still win the Arkle
I do wanna see a good clean race though |
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If SS gets beaten I wont be ripping up my betting slip, unless he is trounced 20 lengths!
Even if he gets beats 3-5 lengths i'd not be crying about it. In ALL National Hunt starts from Bumpers,Hurdles and Chases, SS is a few runs less experienced than the other two and when you take on the best horses around this counts for a lot in my book. Experience is everything in these top races. |
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and nor should you!
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When will Eric Morris appear an put us all out of our misery?
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Well the race seems to be on!
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