Tom, excellent post. I was extremely taken with Menorah's Exeter run before the fall. He impressed me more than anything before that. IMO the Festival, Ireland and Bula runs did look a little short of what I was expecting based in his earlier Supreme, Greatwood and Bula win. Maybe he has plateaued and whilst I would not expect to be steaming in to back him (not studied the Kempton race / prices yet) i do agree that he is a dangerous horse to underestimate at this early stage over fences.

Think thats fair enough re Menorah,just not at the top level over Hurdles.
Chases however he may be.

News just in guys Barry Geraghty thoughts:

"On Tuesday we should be seeing both FINIAN’S RAINBOW (2.40) and SPRINTER SACRE (1.25) in action at Kempton and I couldn’t have been happier with either of them on Friday morning.

To say it was “exciting” on Sprinter Sacre would be something of an understatement – he’s the real deal.

As for Finian’s Rainbow, he was just deadly at his fences. Like all of them, they looked in some sort of form!

The Wayward Lad Novices' Chase is going to be a real thriller because Sprinter Sacre goes head to head with Peddlers Cross.

It’s no secret that I think the world of my horse who was impressive on his chase debut at Doncaster under David Bass on one of those Saturdays where I wanted to be in two places but had to be at Cheltenham.

He was an exciting two mile hurdler but will be even more exciting as a two mile chaser. This was always going to be his target but Peddlers Cross is very welcome to make it one of the races of Christmas and possibly Menorah, too.

It’s a hot one, alright – but mine’s hot stuff.'

I have said this before...

Well I think the Greatwood in which Bothy running off of 127 and had had a prep race is good form, who then followed up with seconds in the totegold trophy off of 138 and then second to a very well handicapped horse in the Coral cup off of 140 is top stuff..

Any Given Day who was beaten 6 1/2 lengths was second to Karabak in a Grade 2 next time and has shown to be decent and won a handicap this year off 155, so thats good..

Olofi beaten 7 lengths was second again this year..

Get me out of here was thrashed..although he wasn't trying..

Orssippus was thrashed and was third in Coral Cup..

General Miller has run well in good races thrashed..Sanctuaire won a Scottish Champ hurdle off of a 4lb higher mark..all these horses he gave weight and a beating...are they all bad???

Any Given Day who was beaten 6 1/2 lengths was second to Karabak in a Grade 2 next time and has shown to be decent and won a handicap this year off 155, so thats good..

Olofi beaten 7 lengths was second again this year..

Get me out of here was thrashed..although he wasn't trying..

Orssippus was thrashed and was third in Coral Cup..

General Miller has run well in good races thrashed..Sanctuaire won a Scottish Champ hurdle off of a 4lb higher mark..all these horses he gave weight and a beating...are they all bad???

Personally for me, to carry 11-12 in a competitive Greatwood was a top class performance and always will be.. The only problem with it, is Johnson through the absolute sink at the horse and it appears to have left its mark..his run in the International was also ok winning by 4 lengths off of a slow gallop..he then ran below expectations in the Champion and was definitely showing signs that all wasn't right with the horse..and without a prep run...

For me his Supreme was still a brilliant run on his 6th career start, Get me out of Here has proved himself under a big weight (148) in the county having been cheated with all year, Oscar Whiskey was also in behind... a host of other decent horses also followed in behind in a very competitive race..and up to standard...

He may well of not of been of Hurricane Fly's calibre but he was still a top class hurdler for me anyways...


You must be one hell of a judge Judorick...but we know you follow top speed ratings so it must be true...and read Paul Jones book of course...

as for being a Judge, well I ran a long running thread on a forum for several years and I was known as "the Judge". I know you don't know who I am but that doesn't mean you know more than me

and I don't "follow Topspeed ratings", I use and interpret them accurately to determine the truly significant ones and those that are not worth a wink.

Anyway, keep throwing insults I will let my predictions do the talking for me. You clearly think efforts by handicappers off marks below 150 have something to do with Grade 1 form. I do not agree at all.

As for my pricing up the race on Tuesday, I was saying what I think the true prices SHOULD be based on MY assessment of the runners. I was NOT trying to work out what the bookmakers would actually end up putting up.

The difference is for me Menorah is pretty exposed whereas Sprinter Sacre is certain to be on the upgrade. FWIW I would be all over SS in a match bet against Al Ferof over hurdles. He has a lot more speed. He paid for being inexperienced and being put into the race too early in the Supreme.

Is staying on dourly the same thing as showing speed though? I'm not convinced, but I could well be wrong. Genuine question, because I'm not sure, but the idea of a horse winning by oozing speed would be him cantering through the race on the bridle and then quickening up, rather than being under pressure 3 out and staying on well up the hill a la Al Ferof.

don't automatically assume that with experience comes the ability to settle perfectly in a race...that is what some are assuming with SS,he can't afford to waste energy against the likes of PC and AF.....and even if he does we can't take as read he'll be able to cope with the likes of the above in any case....i'd like to see him perform in a head to head battle when he needs to dig deep as well.....experience isn't helping the likes of CC to settle is it for example, that horse could be crucial in an arkle, for one thing he will be guaranteed to suit AF and PC whereas he could just possibly end up going head to head with SS and the pair of em could be wrecked....if he runs that is!

Wonder why Hendo hasn't tried a cross noseband ?

No worries,we see the race diffently,dont have a problem with that.
Tell you what though,am awful lot of Arkle winners stayed further than 2m.
Dont think there has ever been much doubt the Arkle was his target.
I do agree that he will go further and dont see him as a QM horse next season,but in his novice year i think the Arkle is perfect for him,especially if its a fast paced race.

Fair play Bud! You're a good egg and I wish you the best of luck this festive season. Merry Christmas, and if whatever I end up backing for the Arkle doesn't win it, I hope Al Ferof does

At the time I thought his form looked quite strong, I still think it reads well, and i do think he has possibly lost some of his fizz and whilst that is impossble to prove i think we can all surely accept that the horse did not progress in any kind of manner thereafter.

Hi Tom! Best wishes to you too. I always enjoy your posts.

I agree about Menorah over fences. I was very taken with 99% of the Exeter run and he is surely a very high class recruit to fences. I like the horse a lot (and trainer) so hope he does well.

The Wayward Lad looks something special - I have had a decent ante-post for the Arkle, so whilst a knotty post-race puzzle would be fun to debate, I'd rather my selection bolted up!

It looks like a great week of NH racing ahead and seemingly the weeather is going to be kind. Have fun watching it Tom (and all!).

Cheere Joist,all the best to you my friend,and a very merry xmas to you and all my fellow festval fanatics,and hoping you all have a great new year and a profitable one!!

As for Menorah,he may or may not have been top class over Hurdles,but he still intrests me over fences,and i look forward to his next run.

Mrs Budd will be b0ll0cking me soon so i best get on.
See you all tomorrow,some great racing,cant wait!!

Hi Judo - I agree and I disagree. It transpires that he has not progressed in the manner I thought he would after the 3 runs mentioned. Was it unreasonable to expect him to build on those runs? His Bula win was just his 9th lifetime run. It would have been a brave man to say at that stage - 'hold on, he has shown a massive liking for the track, he's won a Supreme, a Greatwood off top weight and a Bula, he is quite a lightly raced and apparently progressing 2nd season novice, but i believe his form has been significantly over-rated and he is not as good as people are saying and maybe he has in fact already reached the ceiling of his ability' - did anyone else on the forum say that at that stage? I did not think he would be good enough for last yr's champion but many better judges than me did. Whilst the earlier form may or may not have been over-estimated (and this game is not an exact science), i just believe his subsequent form shows marginal regression (I think Hobbs said he was convinced he was below par in the Champion) rather than a simple continuation of the earlier (possibly overestimated) level form.

I agree entirely with (not for the 1st time) Harry's assesment of the form and although I have been studying NH racing for 4 decades, I would not know a speed figure if it hit me square in the face.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It is precisely because I have been studying and interpreting speed figures, along with many other ratings such as Timeform, RPR etc, for many many years that I was able to say pretty quickly that the Supreme that Menorah won was not out of the top draw. This was then confirmed by the ratings for the Bula and International - none were high enough to make me think he was a genuine Grade 1 horse.

As I said, many people have overestimated the form and are therefore disappointed. They made him favourite to give weight to horses like Grandouet which shows how inaccurate their assessment was - he got beat 13 lengths.

This is the value of using a reliable set of ratings, with a proven track record of accuracy and success. It enables you to draw conclusions early. I have and do use a range of ratings and I have ways and methods of using them that give insights into the value and significance of performances. It is not unique or clever - the info is there so why not use it?

Btw, this is getting very 'off thread'. Shoudl we not debate the form of the 2010 Supreme elsewhere?

Hi Judo.

I cannot say that I "knew" he (Menorah) wasn't going to turn out to be right out of the top draw but I had reason to be suspicious. This seems fine for me.

Of course, it is much easier to be right when you say "he won't be top class" because so few are ever going to turn out that good. This seems fine for me.

However, once some of his other runs came out it became wholly apparent what sort of level he was going to peak at and for me that was short of the best. I guess the difference between me and you is that this (lets call it a) revelation came to you earlier than me - I did not realise at the time given the available information that he had peaked over hurdles in (or maybe even slightly before) the Bula (I find it impressive given the profile of the horse at that stage (which i've described above) that anyone could have done in fact) and I remain slightly surprised given the horse's profile that he did peak over timber around that time and has since plateaued or regressed. I am also not totally convinced that the horse's run in this yr's Bula was entirely in line with prior efforts and I think the prior run over fences, the infected foot and Philip Hobbs' view that 'he'd ... only done two serious bits of work, Richard felt he needed the run' lends support to that idea.

Anyway, this (on an unrelated thread) is getting very boring for all I guess so perhaps we should leave it there. Last question though - under what name did you previously post (about Twist Magic, for example)?

Won't need to settle any more than he did at Donny will he? Finished absolutely full of petrol. Disappointing turn out in the end as barring any mistakes it's surely a 2 runner race really. I always like a race with more runners than this as it can turn into such a tactical battle.

R Carver

I only started posting on this forum in November this year. I had avoided signing up for many years until I read a Paul Nicholls blog post and wanted to reply. In order to do that I had to create a username. I have been posting under another name, which is quite well known, for a number of years (2002-2005 I ran a long running thread and retired the username when the forum shut down a couple of years later) am or my username and the Twist Magic stuff was on that forum.

Anyway, yes I agree Menorah may well have run below his best in the Bula recently but even a peak effort for me would not have been good enough giving weight to Grandouet and given the circumstances it was going to tough (as you say training trouble, lack of fitness etc etc - yet the market made him favourite which was very strange. I was expecting Grandouet to be smashed off the boards and Menorah to drift).

I am sure we will continue these discussions later.

Shame the Wayward Lad has cut up so badly

FAir enough Judo - enjoy the racing today/tomorrow (all week in fact!).