Cheltenham Festival
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Sprinter Sacre - Arkle Winner 2012
Sprinter Sacre - Arkle Winner 2012
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fantastic 2 days racing and not just Kempton
cant wait!! |
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For Non Stop in there, so we should be able to see where Al Ferof would have finished too!
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Looks a real cracker - hope they all turn up. Just remember, Kempton is not Cheltenham!
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^(although Kempton form translates very well to Aintree)
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^
i'll be thinking that if PC gets beat....if SS gets beat he's in trouble come cheltenham for my money....for everything that SS is supposed to be kempton must surely be his track...but will he be quicker than PC?...and there's menorah as a potential fly in the ointment. |
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you dont put much stock in experience then Duffy ?
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Stake & Chips
Date Joined: 10 Jul 01 Add contact | Send message When: 22 Dec 11 09:06 Joined: Date Joined: 10 Jul 01 | Topic/replies: 4,992 | Blogger: Stake & Chips's blog When will Eric Morris appear an put us all out of our misery? No doubt he has them all covered in multi-combos which will net him £20k regardless of the result. |
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only if with experience comes an ability for him to settle much more....i didn't really see any sign of it at donny...i suspect that SS will struggle to get up the chelt hill to the same effect as other top quality horses regardless of how much experience he gets...just my opinion though.
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What A cracking race, I hope they all turn up. I'm looking forward to this more than the King George, strange as that may sound.
Sprinter Sacre will carry my money, he's a beast. Anyone had a go at pricing up the race? Would be interesting. |
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Well with PC having to give 2lb to Sprinter Sacre that puts them 1 lb apart by my reckoning
I go 6/5 each of the two, any price you like the rest of the field - frankly I will be completely flabbergasted if one of them does not win |
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i think pc will go off a shade of odds on.
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that is exactly my point duffy, in which case it is a bit odd to rule him out of winning in March if he does not win next week. What if he doesn't settle and gets beat 2 lengths ? The more exp he has the more he'll learn.
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sint
i take your point but if he didn't settle but got beat 2 lengths...transform that to what would have happened at cheltenham if it had been run there on monday instead....also factor in that kempton will not be suiting PC like cheltenham will, also that PC would have given weight and finally that you would be hoping that SS would accelerate his improvement past the likely improvement that PC is still going to make and put it into practice on a track that won't be his cup of tea as much as PC or AF at the festival itself.....but who knows....he could bl00dy well pi55 up next week for all i know....and it's great for debate that it seems that peddlers al ferof and sprinter have a 3 way equal split in terms of their followers. |
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the problem that niggles me about SS mainly is for example , in that 2nd bangor run peddlers had to race briefly to finish minella off and he responded....al ferof had to battle to fend off fns....in that same situation my gut feeling with SS is that he may well curl up a touch...just a hunch though.
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we will have so much more to go on next week not least the performance of For Non Stop
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tbh, i don't want the race to happen...dashed on the rocks and all that....so much for confidence eh?
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the only way much will change is if either one wins by half the track with the other having no excuses or if one or other gets injured
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Dont think much will change really,kempton is totally different to Cheltenham plus all these novices are still improving at different levels and by March it could be a lot different to Tuesday.
Personally i would like to see FNS run well for Al Ferof,but i suspect this will be a totally different race to Sandown,so i wont be too disheartened if he gets stuffed. |
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judorick
22 Dec 11 15:11 Joined: 27 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 1,051 | Blogger: judorick's blog Well with PC having to give 2lb to Sprinter Sacre that puts them 1 lb apart by my reckoning I go 6/5 each of the two, any price you like the rest of the field - frankly I will be completely flabbergasted if one of them does not win I don't think you would be a bookmaker for to long?? Do you?? Another comical moment in your life Judorick if they all turn up...almost as comical as following top speed ratings... If I was making a tissue I'd put Peddlers in at 13-8 Sprinter Sacre at 9-4 Menorah at 9-2 For Non Stop at 11-2 any price the rest My reasoning would be that the top two in the market still have to give plenty of weight away here and it won't be easy against the other two, unexposed and talented horses.... I do think it could well be sink or swim in this race for Menorah however...fingers crossed for a cracking race... |
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I would have thought it would be around Peddlers @ 11/8, SS @ 5/2, Menorah @ 11/2 and FNS 13/2.
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Glad you wont be dishearted if FNS gets stuffed!!
Should be a cracking race .my view is that peddlers will win ..but what i really hope is that whatever wins goes on to be a superstar..as potentially a couple of these could be |
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Just saw Paddy Power have got it
Peddlers 6/5 Sprinter 2/1 Menorah 4/1 For Non Stop 8/1 Pretty similar to what I thought it would be. I think you'll find a few bigger prices when the rest of them price it up. Maybe the bookies are as split as we are!!! |
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Just saw Paddy Power have got it
Peddlers 6/5 Sprinter 2/1 Menorah 4/1 For Non Stop 8/1 Pretty similar to what I thought it would be. I think you'll find a few bigger prices when the rest of them price it up. Maybe the bookies are as split as we are!!! |
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Pretty similar to what you thought it would be Well Chief...not really totally different if we are keeping it honest...
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there we were having a nice discussion about racing then harry callaghan has to come along and throw insults around
well we will see whose opinion turns out to be comical or not - not that I give a flying one what you think about anything. like all the mugs who made Menorah favourite in the International and then said after it was an off day, training troubles or whatever other excuse you wanna trot out - where I stated categorically that it would not be in the first 3 go ahead and back menorah at 4/1 for next week, you never know the other two might not turn up! Seriously PC and SS are going to leave the others a long way behind, fresh air to be third |
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Jud
i tend to agree with your assessment of the race ,although i still think Peddlers will win.. Excuses will be made to justify AP bets rather than looking at the form lines and stats in front of our eyes.. |
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I don't think I actually did tip menorah for the International and certainly didn't back Judorick...I won't be backing it either at Kempton because unlike people like yourself the race is just a watching brief...I wasn't throwing insults Judorick just merely trying to keep people like you from making rash statements.
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I am not making any rash statements - I am making JUDGEMENTS about racing. Some of them may turn out to be accurate or not. My judgement is that the rest of the field have no chance against PC and SS as long as they run their race (ie jump OK etc). I don't think that is rash in anyway as they clearly stand out. Menorah is 3rd fav yet was beaten 8 lengths or something by PC in the CH. How is he going to reverse that if PC jumps cleanly? Simple, he is not.
have not had a bet in the Arkle as I have said several times in this thread will not be having a bet in the race at kempton really (might lay menorah, fns for a few quid only) And stop making assumptions about what other people are doing with their bets. I did not say YOU backed Menorah, I said the mugs who made him favourite on the day (there must have plenty money to flip the market as Grandouet was favourite AP). I will make the statements I see fit based on analysis and we will see later how much validity they had, alright? |
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I love people like you Judorick.. it has been obvious to me that menorah didn't give his running in the champion hurdle and the race after...he clearly wasn't right. He was unlucky at Exeter, then after having an infection in his near hind foot ran below expectations at Cheltenham after which Hobbs said the horse was short of work, which would explain why he blew up round the home turn...for me he can be forgiven that, but there will be no excuses come the Wayward Lad getting 6lbs from Peddlers...
We will see how clever your theories are then...do us all a favour? copy and paste your lays on Menorah and For Non Stop so we can all see whether you are full of the proverbial...personally i think Menorah is going to run a blinder on the 27th. We will see whether your theories on Menorah are correct then. |
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still think peddlers will go off a shade of odds on ...in those initial markets i think SS will be a shade bigger and fns will be a drifter...with regards menorah, whatever you think about the horse it's all been a bit of a mish mash this season so far hasn't it, we were a bit surprised to see him in the bula, my thoughts are that connections saw the field and thought they'd have a flier at it....if he lagged up in that what's the betting he'd be kept hurdling once again , that's all very well but it just doesn't all fit together in a proper targeted season does it.
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remember...not so long ago hobbs was telling us all that he was looking for a small novice chase for menorah for a confidence booster before christmas....then miraculously he's running in the bula!!
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6 runners is a small novice chase
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yeh...and it would certainly be a confidence booster if he won it
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 Do horses really get "confidence" from winning? Do most of them have any idea what's going on at all? |
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I here what you are saying duffy... just think the horse (menorah) should be forgiven his last couple of races on the back of his problems...we will see in the Wayward Lad whether he is still a proper horse or whether the shot gun should be loaded...
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he certainly jumped well at exeter until the mishap.
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Phillip Hobbs has warned that he may swerve an encounter with two of the hottest novices about however, and stated that he could take in an easier race at Newbury the day after, or at Taunton a week on Friday.
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I agree for the most part with your sentiments regarding Menorah, Harry. I, like you, believe he is better than he has shown the last few races and could well surprise a few on the 27th. Kempton is a track that he looked very effective at over hurdles, but my big concern with him is simply that he's had such a bad prep this year and now going back over fences in such a hot race it is asking a lot for him to be competitive. Ironically, I could see him disappointing here, winning two tinpot races and then going on to run a blinder in the Arkle. Having said all this, he is getting weight from the other two big guns at Kempton and, if he's firing on all cylinders, I think he has the talent to make an impact.
Judorick - we are all entitled to our opinions and you clearly know enough about racing to state yours with a degree of confidence. However, there's only one thing worse in this game than a bad loser and that's a bad winner. Telling everyone that they were "mugs" for sending Menorah off favourite in the International is a bit strong in my opinion and is bound to get a few angryish responses. For what it's worth, I think you are most probably right in thinking that Peddlers and Sprinter should come to the fore here, but this is not cut and dried. Menorah, for example, was believed by many to have run a few lbs shy of his best in the Champion last term. He gets 6lb on the 27th and might well be the better suited of the pair to Kempton's fastish circuit. To say that he can't reverse Champion Hurdle form is wrong. He probably won't but there is a very sound form angle there that suggests he is in with a fair chance of doing so. |
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Think Hobbs would be right to go to Newbury or Taunton instead,especially if he feels his horse needs more education and does not want him to get involved in a hot race at this stage.Makes perfect sense to me,after all its all about March and having the horse where he wants at that point.
Whatever happens on Tuesday,whilst getting more form info which could be useful,we wont know the Arkle winner. Cheltenham in March is a whole lot different to Kempton in December,especially with novices still learning and improving. Plus the Arkle winner aint running  |
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Menorah is 3rd fav yet was beaten 8 lengths or something by PC in the CH. How is he going to reverse that if PC jumps cleanly? Simple, he is not.
Judo, That does not seem to apply with Al Ferof and Sprinter Sacre in the supreme mate. Thats not a dig,just an observation,alright a bit of a dig,but needs explaining imo. Good for the goose and all that. |