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Sprinter Sacre - Arkle Winner 2012
Sprinter Sacre - Arkle Winner 2012
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Buddelia,
Just because something is a Grade 1 doesn't make the 'form' superior. 'Form' means the horses in the race, not the class/grade of race. If Five Dream won a Grade 1 hurdle beating Duc De Regniere and Big Bucks won a conditions hurdle beating Hurricane Fly would that mean Five Dream has the better form? Of course not. I think the form of Peddlers Cross' second Bangor race looks very strong. Minella Class was a highly talented novice hurdler last year and should compete at a very high level over fences. Peddlers Cross inhaled him. I wouldn't think there's much between For Non Stop and Minella Class. |
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Slabster, you're right of course when comparing individual races, but if the pattern is to have any meaning then the average Grade 1 has to be much better than the average class 3. I suspect it's only really novice races (and perhaps some odd condtions races) where there could be any doubt.
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Agreed Stronium.
In this case it's impossible to say the Grade 1 form is the better form imo. |
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AF has experienced cheltenham and sandown and that can't be a bad thing that is without question, on that issue he has the jump (if you pardon the pun) on PC and the depth to the sandown race was better...eradicate etc to that of the bangor race, but in minella class it's probably fair to say that he'll be a decent horse over fences....incidentally i'd love to know how minella and sprinter shape up on the gallops together.
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If Im honest with you, I cant split the big three at this stage of the season. They all have huge potential to be the worthy Champion.
My instinct after seeing how slickly Peddlers Cross jumps a fence tells me he will be very hard to beat. But Alferof and Sprinter could be better. For me it will simply be who jumps best on the day. So maybe a 'betting in running' would be the best option for me!! |
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i wouldn't want them meeting before the arkle either....the excitement building to that race with us all not knowing will be incredible.....one thing i fear though as with all these great potential clashes is that one will miss the race.
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Interesting reading...
For me Al Ferof doesn't inspire to the eye, more the fact I don't think he is very flashy at all...that isn't to say he can't win. The one thing that was disappointing was the little improvement he showed from his first run to his second run...beating Astracad who is rated 138 7 lengths first time was no mean feat but i'd say taking a line through For Non Stop (a maiden, but a good one) that he didn't really improve on his first race...people may argue about the ground and him idling but it was disappointing... that was the reason for the layers not shorting his price...I wouldn't rule him out but he does seem to be lacking something...he may just be a spring horse however, but still doesn't convince me... Sprinter Sacre has always looked and been touted as a top class chaser in the making...he jumped very boldly on debut but he was 2-9 and won like a 2-9 shot..how he shortened past Al Ferof in the market, was surprising, giving the race that he won..he was allowed to bowl along along way from home..racing very keenly, the young Bass lad couldn't hold him and he was allowed to stride on...I wasn't as convinced as many as not sure what he learned from the experience...what I mean by that is, if you have a hold up horse for future letting him just stride on when keen teaches them nothing... but he couldn't do anymore than win the way he did..(maybe I'm to critical, always will be) one blogger was right though, I'd say he will be held up at Cheltenham and it will be an entirely different ball game for this free going sort and it will be up to Geraghty to educate him in his next 2 runs...although he has bags of scope for improvement I will need to see how he behaves when he is restrained...6-1 is anorexic though however. He comes with a big reputation and will have his followers obviously...but his next run will tell me whether he honestly has a realistic chance of winning... Peddlers Cross annoys me in regard to how he is prepared for the big meeting by his brilliant trainer...but that is more because I can't get the angle I want.. (selfish) When he was a novice hurdler, he was just kept quiet mopping up races up north on soft then came to Cheltenham and I just couldn't bring myself to back him, he won like a good horse...trained the same for last years Champion he ran his best race and gave everything and lost nothing in defeat... He is being trained exactly the same way for the big day, he is a worthy favourite...he jumps very low at his fences but is quick and although he hasn't beat much yet minella class is a 140 hurdler i suppose, he has looked like he has just been in second gear...it will be interesting to see how he is ridden in the Arkle as he has been quite prominent at the 2 previous festivals...he is a top class horse and even though he is short enough for me he is the one horse I most want to win as love the Trainer and the horse is a credit to him...I only have one concern and that is his low jumping and the fences at Cheltenham are different gravy to the likes of Bangor or Haydock but I'm sure his astute trainer will leave no stone unturned... Cue Card lacks a little scope and is ridden by Joe Hazzard but he hasn't done a whole lot wrong for me over fences, giving the likeable Bobs Worth 7lb shouldn't be sniffed at. He seems to just have the same pace but he may go off in front and will give you a good run for your money at around 20's...he isn't for me because of the jockey but there is worse 20-1 chances...would love to see him on some proper soft ground, he would answer some questions I need answering...he may go the Jewson route but if he were mine I'd let him take his chance... Menorah I like and have backed at around 14's as think he did nothing wrong on debut just the jockey should of just let him pop the second last and they fluffed there lines...when the pace was on down the far side at exeter he really winged a couple at speed and i liked the way he destroyed them, from then on...people may argue that he is on the down grade but just think he has had a few problems that I think his trainer will iron out...it is all factored in to the reason he is a 14-1 chance but I'll take my chance that this normally progressive horse can get back on track..he isn't to be sniffed at, although I'm sure others will think I'm mad...the plot thickens, like the lovely red wine and red onion gravy I made earlier, we can talk about this another time... Peddlers a Worthy Fav though, but Menorah a bit of juicy value for me... |
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The way I assess it at the moment is:
Peddlers - I think he's worthy fav. I think his beating of Minella Class is the strongest form so far, others will disagree. I know this is a chase, but hurdles form has to come into play. Peddlers has mixed it with the best of the best, SS and AF have never ran outside of novice company-for me that's a big plus for Peddlers. I can't remember as good a hurdle as Peddlers going chasing. True Af and SS may never have reached their potential over hurdles, but I'd expect Peddlers to be more 'streetwise' than the other two. AF has ran with credit on his two starts, but I was expecting more from his last run. As Budd says we don't know how good FNS will be, but my guess would be that he wont be a world beater. AF seems to be the 'unfashionable' one atm, who wins races in an almost workmanlike fashion, Peddlers and SS seem to be more flash, winning on the bridle. That's not a pos for Ped or SS and not a neg for Af, its just how I see it. SS is an unknown for me at the moment. Never seen him win a battle, never been in a top class novice chase. He's never won a grade 1 hurdle, but he's got something about him that makes you think he could be special. I'd want to see him win a decent novice chase before i'd back him at 6/1 |
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The one thing that everyone has to bare in mind is how the supreme novices was run last year.
It ended up with both sprinter sacre and cue card cutting each other's throats out in front from the bottom of the hill and leaving it for Al Ferof and Spirit Son to fight it out who showed more restraint until they were half way up the hill to be produced and come 1st and 2nd respectively. I think if McCoy had shown more restraint at the bottom of the hill and not get locked in a battle with Cue Card which neither was going to win . You may be looking at sprinter sacre as a grade 1 winning novice hurdler. I have seen Peddlers Cross jump and while he is a good jumper but he gets very high at his fence's and doesn't look the quickest or slickest over them. I would give him the award for safest jumper so far between the 3 leading lights but that doesn't count for much. On the other hand I think SS is the quickest jumper and could easily gain two lengths on his rivals with a trademark jump just brushing through the top of the fence. But if he gets a bit low from where he currently jumps he could well get into the bottom. I think this horse could have been placed in a champion hurdle if he stayed hurdling so the fact that PC has that too his name doesn't really worry me. I think Henderson looked at his raw speed and his athletic build and has him earmarked as a future champion chase winner. Hence the reason why he didn't stay hurdling combined with the fact Henderson has a wealth of riches in the hurdling ranks. I think if he had a different trainer he could have well stayed hurdling for this season just to see whether he was a top class hurdler. He has plenty of speed so I wouldn't be scared of taking on Hurricane Fly or however. |
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Seathestars what a load of flannel...
You say Peddlers Cross gets high at his fences, different horse to the one i've seen?? Then you say about Sprinter Sacre could of stayed hurdling when the trainer has said for a year that he couldn't wait to chase him this year...it was never in hendersons mind to keep him hurdling...and then you say you wouldn't be bothered about taking on a top class Hurricane Fly when he wouldn't have a hope... Sorry but this is some of the worse stuff I have read on this forum... |
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still the race everyone is talking about even though there is so much still to be resolved,. I mean there is not the same interest in the Triumph, RSA Chase, Neptune Hurdles... this race has whetted the appetite! Still have not had a bet...
FYI, for many, many years I have been using first Stopwatch, the Topspeed Ratings (both produced by the same man) and I have some modifiers which produce the following: Peddlers Cross 149 (base rating 134) Sprinter Sacre 146 Al Ferof 134 Walkon 129 For Non Stop 114 so on those ratings PC and SS are well clear at this stage |
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I have seen Peddlers Cross jump and while he is a good jumper but he gets very high at his fence's and doesn't look the quickest or slickest over them. I would give him the award for safest jumper so far between the 3 leading lights but that doesn't count for much.
he is definitely getting him mixed up with Al Ferof. |
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Quiet agree that its the horses involved in a race that determines how good the form is rather than the grade of race,but i have no idea which out of Minella Class and FNS are the better chaser,so i used the Grade 1 angle as opposed to the class3.Also FNS had run previously and ran well till falling so he had already ran a good chase.
Anyway none of that will determine which of the 3 or 4(Menorah still interests me)will be the best in March and nor will Topspeed ratings. That will be decided on the day by jumping fences round Cheltenham and 1 horse proving hes the best on the day.Al Ferof has proved he can do the 1st bit ok,all he has to do know is beat what looks to be 2 or 3 very good horses,maybe more. In really think a strong run race will bring out the best in him,whether thats good enough to win i dont know,but i hope so!! |
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I am not taking the Peddlars run against minella class literally. I'd be amazed if Minella Class was ready on the day and even receiving weight, it was a nice opportunity to introduce him with no expectation of winning (Bangor would not sut him IMO, no PC tbf). Pedlars was impressive and i have no doubt he is/will be miles superior to Minella, but i just would not read that form literally.
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On all known form, PC was the best of these over hurdles. AF beat SS in the Supreme though this has little relevance now. SS was still physically immature last season, which is why NH didn't want to run. Despite his reservations, the horse missing the last 2 hurdles and receiving the tenderest ride ever from McCoy in the finish of a championship race, SS ran an absolute blinder.
As a year younger than PC and AF, SS is likely to have made the most physical progress over the summer and I believe this is significant. With far less racecourse experience than PC and AF, SS ought to have the most scope for improvement. IMO the bookmakers have probably got this about right at the moment though AF has done nothing wrong and will run his race come March. I'm confident he will jump round and whatever wins the Arkle will have to beat him - the race won't come gift wrapped. |
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harry callaghan
19 Dec 11 00:38 Sorry but this is some of the worse stuff I have read on this forum... It's no where near as bad as your posts about Gan Amhras winning the Derby a few years ago  |
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Your right Punkle that was a disaster but when you had the 25's ante post and when he went off 8's and was tipped by pricewise on the day, surely we couldn't all be wrong...you are right to pull me up though...good memory you have...thanks for the reminder
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Uncle. |
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R Carver
Date Joined: 19 Nov 09 Add contact | Send message When: 19 Dec 11 08:01 Joined: Date Joined: 19 Nov 09 | Topic/replies: 1,210 | Blogger: R Carver's blog I am not taking the Peddlars run against minella class literally. I'd be amazed if Minella Class was ready on the day and even receiving weight, it was a nice opportunity to introduce him with no expectation of winning (Bangor would not sut him IMO, no PC tbf). Pedlars was impressive and i have no doubt he is/will be miles superior to Minella, but i just would not read that form literally. Completely agree with this. Reckon Nicky Henderson spotted an opportuniy to give one of his a nice school round without the expectation of him hacing to win. He's played a blinder there imo. |
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R Carver, it also gives Henderson a line of form into Peddlers Cross. The plot thickens ..
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Harry - good of you to take it on the chin - respect to you for that.
 I just felt your condemnation of seathestars101 post was a bit condescending  - I have already said that I'd also have fancied Sprinter Sacre for the Champion Hurdle had he been kept to the smaller obstacles so you were also saying I'm talking utter garbage - which is quite possible obviously.Obviously it's all just opinion at the end of the day and of course the chances are that none of the three horses being discussed will win the Arkle and it will have been a total waste of time  |
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Uncle do you agree with every thing that seathestars said??would like to know??
I wasn't just talking of the Champion Hurdle mind... Did you agree with the Peddlers comments... The Champion Hurdle is a totally different ball game and if you think this horse beaten 5 1/4 lengths after collapsing quicker than a cheap tent (found nothing) at the last in last years supreme, would have a prayer against the likes of Hurricane Fly you are wrong pal...time will tell us how good this horse is, but I doubt very much he would of been up to getting in the money of a decent Champion Hurdle...hopefully Spirit Son gets to the track, this might give us a fair idea... |
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But Harry, you are completley missing the point in regards to the hurdle form. Sprinter Sacre was/is a Novice Hurdler going chasing. PC is a second season hurdler going chasing. So to assumer SS could not have go within touching distance of HF is complete folly. One horse is a novice, the other horse is not.
Or so you believe PC could have taken on a seasoned HF when he was a Novice himself .. ? |
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I get shot down in flames every time I criticise McCoy but I definitely feel that in the Supreme he was given an awful, if very predictable, ride (can't fathom why trainers of high quality, strong travelling and good jumpng horses keep booking him when he isn't the best available for that type of horse - Best Mate, Aran Concerto and Kauto Star for example).
He weakened badly from the last but with another year on his back and Gerraghty (or similar) on board I'd have him right up there with PC in the Champion Hurdle betting behind Hurricane Fly. The fact is if he they had both been aimed at the champion hurdle PC would have been about 6/1 and SS 16/1+ - at those prices I'd definitely rather be a SS backer. As you rightly say Henderson has always said he will be even better over fences - and his debut win was very impressive (if not a bit too flamboyant, like Finians last year), so if thats the case I much prefer him for the Arkle than PC. Peddlars Cross has jumped perfectly so far but he has been under no pressure on a very easy track. I have already said I don't fancy him for the Arkle (gut instinct rather than form) but then I said the same about Zarkava for the Arc |
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i think the fact that Peddlers is not a novice hurdle is a massive positive for him.
There are so many novices that look great but then come up short against the big boys-this year Oscars Well springs to mind. Peddlers was a good novice, but an excellent second season hurdler. Whatever peoples opinion of Binocular are, Peddlers beat the current Champion Hurdle winner in his first ever race out of novice company, something not to be sniffed at. |
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Callaghan I know Henderson had it in his mind for an age that this horse would go chasing!!! I agree fully with the trainer in putting him over fences considering he has Grandouet, Spirit Son, Binocular all with good chances in the champion why put another horse in the mix when he has potential to be a champion 2 mile chaser. All i am saying is if McCain trained this horse I think he would have kept him hurdling for a season and put him up against the best and see how he fared. The reason why Henderson put him chasing is he is a big athletic horse with a lot of speed who looks like he would thrive jumping fences.
But a lot of his key attributes would also lend themselves to a tilt at the CH. He is really lean in terms of muscle mass which promotes raw speed, no doubt he has strengthened up over the summer meaning a much better chance of staying up the hill and he is lightening quick over his hurdles! Don't be silly to think just because one trainer said he is tailor made for fences doesn't mean he would be useless over hurdles. Saying that the supreme is an egg and spoon race compared to the champion is actually funny. Let me think off the top off my head Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca and Binocular three horses who done well in the supremes and oh yeah I think they may have ran well in the champion. |
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Sprinter would be a threat wherever he runs imo,chase or hurdles.
Oozes class. That will be a real interesting race at Kempton to say the least,if he and PC turn up. Dont think i will say much more on the Arkle till i see the main candidates again. |
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Sintonian - R Carver, it also gives Henderson a line of form into Peddlers Cross. The plot thickens ..
Absolutely! I agree with the point about Sprinter and Al F not being given the opportunity to reach the heights of Peddlars over timber. Direct comparissons are illuminating here I think. Too much is being made of the fact Peddlers ultimately achieved a higher rating IMO over hurdles. I think AL Ferof had 5 runs over hurdles in his yr as a novice (inc a fall on his debut) and ended the yr after those runs on 154. He was aged 6. Sprinter Sacre had 4 runs in his yr as a novice (one of which saw him return home a sick horse)and ended the yr after those runs on 149. He was aged 5. And - Peddlers Cross had 4 runs in his yr as a novice and ended the yr on 151. He was aged 5. After a summer off Peddlers resumed his 2nd season as a hurdler and had 4 more runs in the new season. He leapt from OR 151 to 162 following the re-arranged Fighting Fifth when fairly impressively beating an unfit Binocular. He next had a prep race at Kelso and then peaked for the season in his 3rd run (his 7th over hurdles all told) achieving his highest mark (unsurprisingly) with a blinding run in the Champion with OR 170. He was over the top at Aintree. So from this I think we can conculde - Peddlers novice yr was broadly similar in quality to Sprinter and Al Ferof. He was rated slightly higher than Sprinter at the end of his novice yr but a school of thought exists that Sprinter was given a less that perfect ride at the festival and after te race had a wind operation. Ultimately Peddlers leap to a mark in the 170s was achieved with the benefit of a summer off strengthening, a yr of hurdles experience behind him, and in his 2nd season over timber in runs that Al Ferof and Sprinter were never asked to have. (1) It is true that if Sprinter and Al Ferof had been asked to have a 2nd season over hurdles it might have turned out at the end of the 2nd yr that (all things being equal) they had in fact already reached their hurdles rating ceiling in the Supreme - but i doubt that highly. (2) Some may say that the extra hurdles races Peddlers had in his 2nd season (taking him to 9 runs under rules + a winning Point before encountering a fence in public ) translate into some kind of 'street-fighting' advantage over Sprinter (6 runs under rules before Doncaster and no Point run I believe) and Al ferof (though in fact Al ferof had 9 runs in public (inc 4 bumper runs) + 2 Points before encountering a fence in public) - although the other side of the coin is that Spinter's fewer runs and fewer hard races could leave him less exposed and open to yet more improvement. I really do not believe there is any scientific way of knowing what the answer to (1) and (2). I also think hurdles ratings should not be taken too literally as a guide before horses go over fences. |
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Very good post RC,nice to see a post full of actual facts,and provides some intersting food for thought.
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* Peddlers Cross had 4 runs in his yr as a novice and ended the yr on 151. He was aged 5. (+ a bumper run)
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Thanks Budd - doubtless I'll be shot to pieces in a moment!
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Maybe,but personally i dont see why.But then you are saying something like i have been saying re hurdling and chasing,so i am bound to agree.
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sintonian
19 Dec 11 14:10 Joined: 21 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 16,441 | Blogger: sintonian's blog But Harry, you are completley missing the point in regards to the hurdle form. Sprinter Sacre was/is a Novice Hurdler going chasing. PC is a second season hurdler going chasing. So to assumer SS could not have go within touching distance of HF is complete folly. One horse is a novice, the other horse is not. Or so you believe PC could have taken on a seasoned HF when he was a Novice himself .. ? Was this question aimed at me.... I think your making yourself look silly... I don't really want to have this argument as this is a thread about the Arkle but for people to say that Sprinter Sacre could of would of, turned into a serious Champion Hurdle horse and shaken up Hurricane Fly I find it hard to believe...he is a Chaser and hurdling was just an education for him before he went fencing...(henderson didn't even want to take him to the supreme in case he ruined the horse) yes he may well have been a high class hurdler?? But if that were the case Henderson would of given him every chance to fulfill his potential as a Champion hurdle horse, but he didn't, because he knew that he probably wouldn't be good enough, but knew he would be over a fence... Peddlers Cross on the other had won a Grade 1, 2 grade 2's at cheltenham and aintree and although connections wanted to send him chasing he was given the opportunity to become a Champion Hurdle horse and rightly so, as his Novice Hurdle form left them no choice than to give him a shot at the title... If you are saying to me that, potentially Sprinter Sacre could scale the same heights as a second season hurdler as peddlers Cross did (an Aintree and Cheltenham winner as a novice hurdler)I would say no because he isn't as good as Peddlers Cross(read the form book if you don't believe me)...you will now ask predictably how do i know, well I can only see with my own eyes and Peddlers Cross was a top class novice hurdler and a winner Sprinter Sacre was not... Seathestars... well what can you say.. another sterling piece of work...some interesting? but this is an Arkle thread.. I don't understand what you want us to take from your comments...If McCain trained this horse he would of gone for the Champ hurdle??...what do you base this on??...I need to lie down now its all a bit much for me... |
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R.Carver you at least put good sense to your argument...and I respect that...
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Sorry Harry my point was that everyone is raving about PC hurdles form and how that might squeak him the arkle considering how talented the main market leaders are. I think SS wouldn't be too far off PC at all over hurdles when he has fully matured which gives me confidence SS can beat him over fences. I just really like this horse every which way and think he will do the business in march.
Lets just hope they all get there in one piece as this is going to be a cracker!!!! |
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Only person who looks silly Harry is you. Your using novice hurdle form against a season hurdler as a stick to beat novice chasers with. You've skipped a whole year of progress out and assumed the novice hurdler could not improve on his debut season.
No one has the answer to what AF and SS could have achieved in their second season over hurdles. If they do, they're making an assumption. And we all know what that leads to .. |
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* seasoned hurdler
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I am going to stick my head out and say that Al Ferof will not win the Arkle. He did not improve on his second start and that is something I expect them to do. I don't think he will catch the front runners in the Arkle like he did in the Supreme. So, my shortlist is now down to two at this stage. Their next outings will tell us a lot more
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You can't compare these novices and a champ hurdle 2nd based on their ratings it's ridic. They have been campaigned in totally different ways. For example Sprinter Sacre has been building to his career over fences. Hendo didn't want to run him at Chelt and after his impressive hurdle wins all Nicky was rattling on about was his future over fences. I think if he was campaigned more aggressively over hurdles there is no doubt in my mind he would reach a very high level. But he hasn't been so you can't compare him with Peddlar's Cross. He hasn't done much wrong so far and is improving as he continues his career. I personally would have a bet now this horse is the last one off the bit but it's all about what's left.
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Superb post above from R Carver.
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