Cheltenham Festival
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Sprinter Sacre - Arkle Winner 2012
Sprinter Sacre - Arkle Winner 2012
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Thing is with Peddlers, the way Donald campaigns him we won't know just how good he is till Arkle day as he will just keep 'beating trees'
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incidentally...what did david bass say about the ride on SS...remember after trying to race PC...he said it's the fastest he's ever been on a horse ....i wouldn't call minella class a tree....as good as anything AF has faced so far i'd have thought
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To paraphrase it Duffy, Bass said he had schooled SS on the Monday which went very well. As far as the race itself was concerned, SS is the by far best horse he has ridden - presume this means in public. Can't believe he hasn't ridden Binocular, Long Run, Spirit Son etc at home. He also said that Barry Geraghty would be getting the leg up from now on.
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Rhinestone - i do recall you talking up SS after he was beaten by Frascati, I remember it well. I did not at tha point back him for the Arkle, but before that race and after it i did back him for the Supreme (rather too heavilly!).
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yeah had him as my best result for the Supreme as well!
Without wanting to derail the Sprinter / Arkle post, have you many other ante-post fancies? |
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Duffy,
Do you think a defeat of Minella Class is as good as a defeat of Astracad who has just come out and beat a load of seasoned handicappers?? |
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Say what you like about these 3,of course,but when it comes to chase form we have at the moment,imo Al Ferof has the best.2 graded wins,one being a grade 1.Both on tough tracks,one being at Cheltenham.Plus one of his horses he beat easily has just won against some pretty good established 2m handicappers.
Not crabbing the others,dont want to get into that,and its not fair anyway as none of then have done anything wrong as yet. Just saying it as i see it based on their respective chases thus far. |
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Budd ..we all have different views on the merits of these horses as i have pointed out elsewhere an independent view by BHA .PC is regarded as 7lb + better than AF on chase form (SS not rated yet) whilst Timeform rate AF 1lb higher than PC both with a p (SS not rated yet)..Who is right? March 13th 2012 will tell us
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Well right now the view that PC is 7lb better has to be using Hurdles form,as his chase form at Bangor does not compare to 2 graded wins.Timeform would be more accurate imo.
Yes we find out in March,but nowt wrong with swapping opinions in the build up. This is an antepost forum after all. |
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Budd - not just 2 graded wins, but graded wins at Cheltnham and Sandown which are severe tests for a novice. In the first, Astracad was well beaten and has come out and franked the form.
Of the three horses we are discussing, Al Ferof has by far the best chase form in the book so far. That's not to say he's the best, or will win the Arkle, but he has much less to prove than SS or PC at this stage. The other thing to note - and I don't know why people keep ignoring this - is that hudrling is not chasing. The skills required to jump the obstacles are very, very different (as are, frequently, the genetic requirements of the horse). It's why not many Champion Hurdlers become great chasers. |
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Breathing operation.
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Stront,
Agree with your last comments,i certainly aint ignoring that,its pretty much what i have been saying re hurdling in a Chase race. |
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Sorry Budd, that wasn't aimed at you, just a general observation. But there are many threads on here where people think they can infer everything about a chaser from its hurdle rating.
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Hi Rhinestone, I've got quite a few APs already (I cannot help myself!) but nothing really exciting me at this stage this time around unfortunately. So much so, in fact, i cannot recall them all. Best 2 are Sprinter and Spirit Son for the Champion (though Hurricane Fly would be a tough nut to crack in last yrs form - given his fragile history, I thought he was worth opposing for small sums). Hope the rest of yours are doing well.
Budd, I agree about Al Ferof's form at this stage - looks rock solid to me too. I still harbour the reservations mentioned above, but he has done nothing wrong so far, acts on the track, stays, settles well, seems 'grown up', makes a great shape over a fence and is trained by the top man IMO, so he looks good. |
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I agree with everyone pushing the fact that hurdles form does not translate lb for lb to chase form but think people are getting a little hung up on the maxim rather than the concept behind this truism.
The way I see it is that hurdlers often fail to achieve the same heights over fences because they do not jump the bigger obstacles naturally, or they don't settle as well etc... While Al Ferof's chasing form is stronger in depth than that of Peddlers Cross, both look to be natural jumpers. With that being the case, Peddlers Cross has to be the most likely winner at this very early stage. Al Ferof and Sprinter Sacre are superb prospects and have done nothing wrong whatsoever. Either could easily win the Arkle if they keep improving. But as someone else said earlier on the thread, how many of you think they have the base ability to run Hurricane Fly to less than a length in a Champion Hurdle? For me, I couldn't support that view, and for that reason I do think Peddlers deserves to be favourite, but want to stress I love all three and am not knocking the others on what we have seen so far. With the gun to my head I would back Peddlers for the reasons already stated. I have one concern with the other two - not sure if Sprinter will do too much too early and not quite get home, and not sure that Al Ferof has the pace to go with Sprinter and Peddlers when things quicken. |
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Tom - I'm sure you're right you need speed to win an Arkle but you also need stamina. Most winners stay 2 1/2 m (at least). That has to be more of a concern for SS than for AF & PC (at this stage).
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Three cracking novices no doubt, but for me the pecking order is pretty clear:
1. Peddlers Cross 2. Sprinter Sacre 3. Al Ferof I take the point that hurdles form does not always translate to chase form BUT all three have long been considered chasers, after all it's a pretty bold decision to put PC over fences already given what he has achieved over hurdles. The gap between him and the other two over hurdles is big and having seen him hump flawlessly twice (the second time at real speed) I am comfortable in assuming that it would be very difficult for the other two to improve past him. When it comes to the other two I feel that SS has the greater scope for improvement based on trainer comments, and am put off a bit by AF's last run. I can see SS haring off and AF getting the shove on pretty early whilst PC sits in its slipstream, before passing it after two out, ans SS being too far ahead of the out of rhythm to be threatened for 2nd. Simples :) |
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^ Very similar appraisal to my own thoughts MP, although I have a sneaking suspicion something else will yet emerge from the woodwork to play some sort of a role in the race. I have a fear that Al Ferof might just run a Somersby/Medermit race - get caught for toe at a critical stage and stay on too late.
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You can back all three at a combined 11/10 with the bookies and that seems a pretty good bet to me. Really not sure what there is out there that can aspire to this level with the exception of Menorah who is under a bit of a cloud at the moment. For Non Stop a lively place player. But Punjabi is out for the season, Cue Card and Walk On will probs take the 2.5m option if connections are sensible. Anything else may have to emerge after teh new year which would be unusual for an Arkle horse.
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One I thought of was Kumbeshwar who was not far behind the best juvenile hurdlers and has already won a novice chase. The only caveat is that front runners have a terrible record in the Arkle and he has been known to front run fairly frequently (although i don't believe he did when he won on chase debut)
still I could not put him in the class of the other 3 under discussion and odds against that one of PC, SS or AF wins the Arkle looks outstanding! I mean at this stage we are struggling to come up with something that can compete with them |
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Anyone know any future plans about Cedre Bleu? Is he out for the season, or just a post Christmas reappearance?
I remember Nicholls was talking him up as a nice prospect for the Arkle this year, but not entered into anything so far, and not heard a peep from Nicholls about him. After his last run against Spirit Son Nicholls said "he is a fine big young horse who will go chasing next autumn. He is now likely to be put away for the summer months before he begins schooling over the larger obstacles" 94's on here wouldn't inspire confidence, but his name sticks in my head because Nicholls was really bullish about him last year as a future novice chaser. |
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Sprinter won't be haring off in front. In fact he's never gone from the front, last time he only took it up so far out as he was so much better and nothing could give him a lead. I'd expect something will go a good pace in the Arkle so Sprinter won't be running from the front. He is not a Finians.
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MPR,
Strange aint it, i was actually quiet impressed with the run of Al Ferof at Sandown. In a pretty slow run race which would not have suited,he jumped really well on a tricky course and found plenty when asked,and probably idled a bit in front. I think people may have been expecting an easier victory,but their are a few reasons why that did not happen. 1.For Non Stop just may be better than we thought,only his 2nd chase and ran well in his other. 2.The race was not run to suit AF.Think their is no doubt about that one. 3.Al Ferof may not be as good as i think,although the recent victory of Astracad who AF beat comfortably suggests thats not the case. So for me its mor likely points 1 or 2,maybe a combination of the 2. For others it may be 3. Fair enough and makes for great discussion and debate. Fascinating race shaping up.love it!! |
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God we're like kids in a sweet shop. I'm not sure I can stand another 3 months of these 3 being unbeaten going to the Festival fit and well! Will be a shame if the bubble is burst meantime.
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Im sure there will be a few irish horses lurking.
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Could be a very small field Arkle this year, RSA will be the best Novice Race this year
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It always is Bluebird
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Personnally I cannot see past the top 3 in the market at the moment. Does anyone think there is something lurking that can get amongst them?
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Kumbeshwar runs Ascot ina Graded Chase on Friday, if he bolts up by a big margin he will shorten big time. He is about 25/1 for the Arkle currently I think
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Are you backing him then Rikc ?
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Kumbeshwar was a decent juveline hurdler and receives a handy weight for age allowance tomorrow. I'll be astonished if he wins by a big margin. Don't have him in the same league as the top 3 in the betting for the Arkle.
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Let's put the Astracad piece of form into perspective. It won a h'cap, by a head, off 138. Hardly inspiring. Ok AF beat it an easy 7L off levels but it still only puts AF on, about, at best, 155. PC is a 170 horse.
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i was just trying to come up with something to throw in the mix with the big three, if he don't win impressively on friday he will be a no hoper
frankly as we have been saying they stand head and shoulders |
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Well, I think you'd have to at least be open to Menorah being a force. Excuses are starting to stack up but he looked good on his chasing debut and might well be a fair bit better than his Bula run suggested (interrupted prep with niggle, fitness, return to smaller obstacles etc). He is a good horse and would be a player if showing any improvement for the switch to fences.
I will almost certainly be laughed at for this suggestion but still believe Cue Card has the talent to be involved in some way. Unpopular opinion with many but I think he is a genuine two-miler who stays a bit further, and that his cruising speed could be put to great use if they had a good jock on him and let him bowl along prominently. He reminds me of Forpadydeplasterer a little - very frustrating but very talented, and I do think the Arkle would pan out well for a horse of his type. That said, this looks a good renewal to say the least so hard to see him quite winning it. |
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Kumbeshwar has to progress a fair bit, however I recall a certain Voy Por Ustedes who was a moderate juvenile hurdler who did exactly that.
One who could be interesting is Blackstairsmountain. |
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willie - to date, PC is a 170 hurdler. If hurdles were chases, if wishes were horses.....
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peddlers might not end up as good....but the same rule applies to AF.
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thing is , PC jumps fences as well as he jumps hurdles, so it would appear that fences wont stop him running to his hurdle rating or even surpassing it!
he will be extremely hard to beat in the arkle. he deserves to be clear fav, only ever beaten by one exceptional hurdler and has only run one bad race where he was well over the top! i think he should be shorther. |
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he probably will be shorter on the day
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Tom, I am in agreement about Cue Card and Menorah - Menorah's next run over 2 will be very interesting, before the mistake at Exeter he looked as good a novice as they come IMO. I can imagne others will come form the woodwork too, althought the front 3 in the betting do look good.
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