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Sprinter Sacre - Arkle Winner 2012
Sprinter Sacre - Arkle Winner 2012
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Correct Strontium.
Al Ferofs form over fences is better than any of the other candidates. Come March we dont know which will have the best form or which is the best chaser. The Arkle is not a hurdle race. |
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Buses,
Pc jumped Bangor well and does look a natural,but jumping fences at Chelt and Sandown is a different kettle of fish imo,and thats what Al Ferof has done. Stil,you are fine you have PC at bigger odds than you think he should be. Fair enough. Willie, Dont you think a novice beating seasoned handicappers is a fair achievement? The end of the day its form that does Al Ferof no harm,having a horse he beat easily win since in a fair handicap. No one said it was form to win an Arkle mate,just a good sign. The Arkle is 3 months away,and these will improve at different rates,and some will jump fences better than others. |
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I agree PC has jumped fences well so far, but in what amounted to glorified schooling sessions. The Arkle is all hustle and bustle and generaally run at a furious pace. Jumping will be put under far, far more pressure than in these small field races at low grade tracks. We aren't going to know if PC can cut it as a top chaser until he runs in a decent race - and that may well not happen until Arkle day.
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I see connections are mulling over running PC at Kempton after pulling him out from Haydock cos of the ground.
Might learn some more then. |
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Sprinter Sacre destined for Kempton too apparently.
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Kumbeshwar just had his form franked in no uncertain terms and he is now favoutite for this chase today... be interesting to see
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just a question..but shouldn't AF's last run have been a glorified schooling session....the fact he wasn't impressive doesn't necessarily mean it was a better race than it was does it?
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and of course ..the slow pace would have hindered for non stop even more than AF....which has gotten largely overlooked.
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Walkon now a contender? Or even Zaynar? Hmmm new possibilities!
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Duffy - quite possibly to an extent, though Sandown is a tough test for any novice (unlike Bangor). I genuinely don't know which of PC, AF and SS will be the best in March. I just feel that AF has the best form in the book to date and PC is overhyped on what he's achieved as a chaser so far (but he has enormous potential).
As for Zayanr and Walkon, surely both need 2 1/2 m at least. I still expect Walkon to end up in the RSA. |
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couldn't trust zaynar....even though he looked happier in front, what happened mid race when he dramatically slowed into one....if he ran in the arkle and they tried to lead he would be hassled like mad...if he could go that pace that is in the first place.....he would hate that ra ce imo.
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Duffy,
That was a Grade 1,schooling session?? It werent a tin pot race at Bangor. As i have said before,maybe people are underestimating For Non Stop,he looks pretty good over fences to me. Of course Al Ferof has the best form,hes won a Grade 1 and a Grade 2,its beyond argument. |
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Zaynar will be in the 2 and half novice i should think,and he will be a threat if repeating that yesterday.
Hope so,hes a lovely horse and one of my favourites,although can be a bit of a rogue. |
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it was a grade 1 in name!! that's beyond question...wow, for non stop almost a grade 1 winner!!.....you'd think there would have to be something wrong with a race for him to be close to winning a grade 1...wouldn't you...only my opinion budd .
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this business about a good fight will do AF good....you reckon connections were left saying...bloody glad that happened today!!! i reckon they would have wanted him to win by 10 head in chest....the good fight tosh is what people trot out when a horse has been less than impressive!!! only my opinion mind you!!
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Why keep having a go at For Non Stop?? you have no idea how good a chaser he is or could be.He has had 2 runs over fences and ran well in both.Would have won his debut race imo had he not fallen,and then jumped round Sandown really well and made Al Ferof work for victory.
That race imo is good form,as is Al Ferofs race at Cheltenham,which the easily beaten runner up has since franked. It aint tosh to consider a tough race to do a horse good,especially when that horse shows he finds plenty when needed.Being a battle hardened type that jumps well and loves a fast pace definitely stands him in good stead for an Arkle. Whatever way you look at it though,its still better chase form than any of his Arkle rivals have managed thus far. |
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not having a go at for non stop, he deserves praise, but AF should be beating him easier imo...as i said earlier the slow pace would not suit for non stop either....AF has run at two better tracks can't argue with that of course but i think that a little too much is being put on it , because he ran at chelt but it was a stroll to him, no pressure on him at all, lots of novices do that without us saying wow he's jumped round chelt and yes i know he beat astracad and he beat seasoned handicappers, puts AF on about 152+ ish...and the sandown race as i said was a grade 1 in name only...for non stop maybe a grade 1 winner waiting to happen but i doubt it....AF is top class of course but just raising a couple of questions as you and others do with PC, as you say yourself plenty of times budd none of us know...we're just summising
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Dont think i have raised any questions re Peddlers Cross.All ive really said is that hes raced at Bangor,not his fault of course and he did jump well anyway,which was the interesting part.
And that i dont use hurdles ratings to decide which horse to back in an Arkle. Virtually all my posts have been about Al Ferof |
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You would have to consider it a poor Arkle if For Non Stop got within 1/4 of a length of the winner, surely?
I agree with Duffy totally and raised the point earlier in the thread, that an Arkle winner really should have swept aside that field with little fuss. That isn't to say that Al Ferof won't win the Arkle based on that form, but I find it hard/rose-tinted for Al Ferof Arkle backers to take that performance as a positive one. |
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last years Arkle winner got beat at Sandown was it?
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he did..over 2.4 and at the time you wouldn't have taken it as a positive for the arkle
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Maybe we should wait for the next race that FNS competes in.
The race is 3 months away and they will all be improving.Do we really expect horses to put in Arkle winning performances in their first run or 2 over fences?? Al Ferof has shown me he can jump well at Cheltenham,find plenty off the bridle and finishes his races well off a strong pace.All good signs for a horse going for an Arkle. Is he good enough?? Only time will tell,but i am happy with what i have seen,and expect more to come from him. |
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far too mcuh credit given to the fact Af has won over fences around Chelten imo. So had Tatenen, in the same race! Remember him?
What I do like about AF though, is that he has been given 2 chase runs this side of Xmas, which is the same as Nicholls last Arkle winner, Azertyuiop. So trainer patterns are positive. |
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I think FNS is a seriously nice horse and rate the Sandown form highly. I couldn't crab Al Ferof's chase form at all at this stage. I also would not crab the inferior form of other intended runners at this stage. Form can only tell us so much at this stage IMO - horses can improve/deteriorate at any stage - Captain Chris had been battered by Ghizao twice last yr (inc once by 4l when getting 10lbs weight) and CC prevailed in the Arkle (imposible to say, but I happen to believe he would have done even if Ghizao had not hammered the 4th last - subsequent form indicates as much too). Form tells us a certain amount but profile has to be factored in, a literal reading of hurdles form too can be simplistic IMO.
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innteresting comment from Hobbs on RUK this week .. said the Arkle trip was ''blatantly too short'' for CC. Suggesting he outstayed the opposition off the strong pace set by Finians Rainbow.
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Interesting the comments about sandown "form" being better than bangor "form" assume everyone feels that For Non stop is a better chaser than Peddlers then? After all he was only beaten a neck in a grade 1 at sandown.
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Opened an account with betfred two weeks ago had 25 on grandouet at chelt at 3s during the week. So I got a 25 free bet was going to back something the next weekend instead went an took 6s for sprinter sacre in the arkle.
Barry Geraghty is a good man to tip up a horse for cheltenham. I remember he tipped up Iris Gift as his banker on the national news in Ireland with about 500,000 viewers he would have got it in the neck if he lost from a few wingers but it done the job. He said and I quote " I’ve not looked forward so much to a two mile novice chaser for many years." in regard to sprinter sacre. This horse has strengthened up big time and he didn't quiet stay up the hill last year but believe he will this year. I hope I am not setting him up for a fall. |
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he was having an orgasm everytime he talked about finians before last season...mind you he nearly got that one right.
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good post r carver.
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Agree,excellent post,a lot of sense there.
Teaspoon, Bangor races were class 3 and 4,Sandown was a Grade 1.And yes its possible FNS is a better chaser than PC,probably aint but possible and literally on form over chases so far he is.As RC says above though,form can only tell us so much.And even more so with novices that have only had 1 or 2 runs over fences. We can say what we want about our fancies or what we have backed,but we have no idea which of the candidates will be the best chaser next March. Its fun discussing though. |
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it all depends how you are assessing the form and there are various ways to do that
I prefer to use reliable ratings like Topspeed and RPR out of the Racing POst Horse BEst TS Best RPR Al Ferof 130 159 Peddlers 134 162 S. Sacre 146 154 So both rank PC higher than Al Ferof despite having run in lower grade races and Topspeed ranks SS higher than both. Will be extremely interesting to see which of those ratings proves most significant come March |
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It's highly likley that all three of them will put up their highest RPR in the Arkle itself (as long as they complete).
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It is indeed.
To be honest i could not care less what Topspeed says,and as for the RPR,after 2 races,1 for SS,that aint bothering me either. I can use my eyes same as the next man. |
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there was a discussion going on about whether the Sandown form was better than the Bangor form merely by being a Grade 1 and whther For Non Stop could therefore be thought of as having better chase form than Peddlers Cross
and I was using the ratings to show that in fact, highly reliable and respected industry ratings currently rate the Bangor form as higher than the Sandown race. |
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Irrespective of which, Sandown is a much, much tougher test for a novice than Bangor and, therefore, potentially a better preparation. And Sandown experience translates well to Cheltenham. These things are regularly flagged up by your beloved Paul Jones.
Given two horses of equal ability, I would take the one that had won at Sandown over the one that won at Bangor every time. Of course, in this case, they almost certainly aren't of equal ability, but as poeple keep saying, we won't know which one has more ability as a chaser until March. Until one of them races again and we have more real data, this conversation seems to have run its course. |
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highly reliable and repected industry raings have a class 3 in front of a grade 1.okey doke.
As Stront says,the conversation has probably run its course. They are all novices starting off chasing,lets give them the chance to do the talking. |
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Changing the theme a little. Would you like them to meet before the Arkle, or would you like all 3 to turn up unbeaten?
I think I would like them to get there unbeaten. Would make it better pre race. If 2 or the 3 meet before, it will likely take some gloss off. |
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i would agree with you,prefer them to race each other 1st time at Cheltenham.
Like the unknowns,makes it more intriguing. Their is talk of Sprinter and Peddlers both running at Kempton over xmas i believe though. |
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Would love for them to not have met before festival but it seem Peddlars & Sprinter Sacre could be meeting at Kempton. Although Captain Chris proved that it doesn't matter if you lose to rivals before the festival.
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buddeliea
Date Joined: 19 Mar 04 Add contact | Send message When: 18 Dec 11 15:06 Joined: Date Joined: 19 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 4,655 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog highly reliable and repected industry raings have a class 3 in front of a grade 1.okey doke. As Stront says,the conversation has probably run its course. They are all novices starting off chasing,lets give them the chance to do the talking. You do realise that the Sandown race was given Grade 1 status for the first time this season ? It was previously a Grade 2. |