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Sprinter Sacre - Arkle Winner 2012
Sprinter Sacre - Arkle Winner 2012
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Wow, that's amazing if true. Especially the bit about OW!
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Bit of poetic licence from Andrew Tinkler about his home work I feel. He probably works on his own because it's the best way to get him to settle. If he works with another horse he'll probably want to race. Doing a steady 4/5 furlongs uphill upsides something else may just not be possible. They do very litte fast work at home. I wouldn't be at all surprised though if he is the fastest horse in the yard.
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Cheers Sint, Wales were giving away the 3.5, btw. My bet stumbled over the line tho and I hated the whole experience of backing against England. Found myself wanting the last ditch 'try' to not be given as I didn't fancy Flood to pot the kick and a 2pt defeat was the worse case scenario.
Still money is money and it did look a standout price before the game..... It felt nice to be posting something on this thread that hadn't been said before ad infinitum, to be honest  |
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henderson re SS today said: "I know people say he's a flat track horse who won't come up the hill, but I don't subscribe to that.
"I don't usually pay much attention to race times but all three runs have been exceptionally quick, yet he has finished hard on the bridle every time." |
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Not in Menorah's class apparently....doesn't jump anything like well enough........
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Tinkler dont think it was a very good idea resurrecting this thread - everyone on it had become dizzy going around in circles
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That's just when Budde enters. Any new news etc is fine imo
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Thoughts on Paddy Powers offer today? Couldnt touch SS now imo
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It certainly makes Peddlers Cross/Al Ferof attractive alternatives
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Andrew Tinkler made some interesting comments at a Festival Preview..
Sprinter Sacre needs very little introduction now. I made the running on French Opera at Newbury at what I thought was championship pace and he just breezed by me at half-way like I wasn’t even there. He has to work on his own at home as nothing can live with him and we don’t want to break the hearts of horses like Oscar Whisky by working with him. The intention was sit him in behind at Newbury so he can learn but that only lasted about five fences as he just took off past them without even trying. He was a shell of a horse last year which is why he didn’t get up the hill but came back to us looking unrecognisable after the summer and has grown up now. Astonishing to think with the classy hurdler's etc. at Nicky's yard he has to work on his own. please, this is getting ridiculous now  |
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i wondered what that horse was doing at beachy head the other day
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Nah im pretty much done MM,although i will say i aint sure about SS getting home at Cheltenham
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I've just read somewhere in this thread: "I don't think Peddler's can go toe to toe with Sprinter Sacre"
What?!! Are u serious or enjoying some jamacian old holburn? Guys, we do remember Peddler's was runner up in the Champion Hurdle last year don't we? And it was around Cheltenham... we all remember that don't we? against the brilliant Hurricane Fly... just lost yes? Hard as nails yes? Full of speed yes? Peddler's was awesome at Cheltenham. Sprinter Sacre was pretty useless up the hill in the Supreme and does he think the Arkle will be an easy skip round? I think this is a great race in the making and wouldn't at all be surprised to see Peddler break SS's heart with speed and stamina. What a great race to look forward to but don't ditch Peddler's on one race when he had back & muscle problems. |
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Hurdles is a different game to fences jokers.
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Agreed rhinestone, totally get that.
But look back at historic Arkle results and just see how many top class hurdlers go on to win the Arkle the following year based on Cheltenham hurdling form in the previous years & by that I mean they have the fastest hurdling form in the Arkle. The history books are littered with 1,2,3s in the Arkle with the fastest hurdle stats in G1, Class1 and G2 company. SS is no slouch and is a worthy favourite on all form BUT Cheltenham. Sadly for his fans the Arkle is still being run at Cheltenham, up and down dale at break neck speed and to finish them off there's the hill SS hated last year in this kind of company. Just my humble that's all  p.s. your nickname of rhinestone isn't a memoir to the Cowboy is it? I still come out in cold sweats and swear words thinking of Pizarro bouncing him off the railings in the Bumper! robbed us Rhinestone Cowboy backers were.... grrrr :-) |
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Peddler's Cross is a great horse but my concern with him is from being unbeaten up until that Champion Hurdle he has gone on to lose 2 more times. For me he hasn't run up to anywhere near his Champion Hurdle form since. If he ran up to 170 ish over fences which is a huge step up on what he's done he could make a race of it.
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Well good luck jokers
Just think, and have said since before he jumped a fence that Peddlers wouldn't be as good over fences, just looked a very neat hurdler to me. And slightly biased as have been on Sprinter for 14 months  Yes named after cowboy....how he never got awarded the bumper i'll never know  |
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ss couldnt breath hense why he didnt get up the hill bigger stronger horse this year plus he had a wind op
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McCain now mentioning words such as "Jewson" and "Chase" in the same sentence?
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Just looked back through the record books. Remittance Man had 4 runs over fences before his Arkle victory. Leicester, Kempton twice and Newbury.
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 TTT.. Fair to say Donald didn't fancy a rematch |
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one horse race now
Mark Miwordz |
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yep one horse race by the looks of it...unless SS manages to get up the hill that is
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will barely be out of second gear, I am looking for distance bets now that Peddlars is out
I am estimating 4 lengths but the problem is that having so much in hand Barry can take it easy up the run in so it's dodgy guessing how far he wins |
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Judorick - he's a novice chaser.... hope you don't come unstuck.
I'm racking my memory banks for that other chaser several years that ended up with a form record that went 1,1,1,1,1,F come the festival (Was it 'Classified')? Anyway, he'll probably win, but stranger things have happened. |
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I can only back my analysis and ratings. I now have him at least a stone clear on 175 to 161 for the next best - and that is massive on my ratings as anything from 7 points on my scale is truly a significant margin of superiority. I think he can win 4 lengths at his leisure and if asked for full effort he could win by much further. Will be looking for prices for distances. You can't be betting based on might not jump or whatever, that is all built into the price
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The three good things on the first day are looking better and better as time goes by but of course it is horse racing. If you are that certain Judo you should not be thinking of the winning distance as it is a lottery. Just go all on the nose.
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I'd rather go all in on a filthy old hurdler like Big Bucks that is sure as sh1t to get round and won't be beaten than a 2m novice chaser who might...just might...be a superstar. But that's what betting is all about I suppose. Pay your money and take your chance.
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I'm already on for a lot of money Arklearkle but now that the main danger is out I would like to press up. If I can get something like 3/1 to win by 4 lengths or more I will steam in again
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I could accept something like 4 lengths or more but not something like 4 to 8 lengths. Of course to be honest the value is gone on all the more fancied horses now anyway.
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yeah not much to be had at the top of most markets now and I have enough on in the outright to make it not worth backing the odds on now and decreasing my average odds. The distance bet is value in my mind, if I can get it at the right price and distances, because IF my ratings are correct and he is about to produce a jaw dropping performance (which is what my ratings tell me he is capable of) then he is very likely to blow the field away... and if my ratings are not right then he won't win at all so you lose your money on the win market or the distance market
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main danger is still there,you just cant see it,or refuse to.
Betting on distance in a novice chase!!! Sure you can find proper bets,it is the festival yer know. |
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The Mighty Sprinter was 5/2 to win by "4.5 lengths or more" last week with PP. Assuming that price will have gone with Peddlers running scared etc..
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how you have him on 175 beggers belief
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FWIW here is my take on how i think the Arkle will be run, before i type it
Is there any rags in there that could run that are front runners If not, Cue Card will set the pace or sit a close 2nd behind it if a rag takes them along BG looks between his legs  at the top of the hill (3 out) a clean jump at this fence he then moves up along side CC and almost takes it up  They cruise down the hill, Tizzard slightly more animated, SS now trading at 1.3 ir on here, but hang on, whos this in behind these front 2 It's Alferof and Men with Blackstairs a length or two behind these two They get to near the bottom of the hill, about to jump 2 out, Alferof, is 3 lengths down on SS, Men and Blackstairs are disputing this position with about half length covering the 3 of them inc a weakening CC  Alferof (hopefully  ) takes it up from a floundering SS up the hill, Men and Blackstairs fight out 3rd and 4th SS fights back but it's all in vain as he does not have that extra kick and gear and is found out by the more staying type up the final climb for home, a gallant 2nd going down my a length and a half at the line You heard it here first imho |
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Menorah not getting any further than halfway is a much more likely scenario.........
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Maybe but you cannot include a horse falling, just does not ring true and is something know one likes to or wants to see ever!
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how you have him on 175 beggers belief
As I have explained several times on this thread and others, my rating is a "peak potential" rating. This is the rating I predict the horse would be able to achieve if able, due to conditions such as pace profile and going, to produce his maximum effort. It is a sophisticated method for predicting potential and I have been doing this since the late 80s very successfully. None of you have to believe me and the horse won't necessarily produce this figure in the Arkle but I confidently predict he will be running 175 type performances in the near future. Just one example, not that it matters, but it's true: when Rooster Booster won the Champion Hurdle he made his seasonal debut in a Conditions Hurdle at Sandown (or Kempton??) where he beat Mr Cool giving him 10lbs and never came off the bit. My "peak potential" rating went through the roof and I was convinced from then that he would win the Champion Hurdle. He was available at 25/1 at that point because he was perceived as only a handicapper yet he went on to win by 11 lengths Anyway, that's just an aside. If the horse runs up to my peak potential rating he will win the Arkle doing handsprings. We will be able to discuss it after. I am predicting that Cue Card may be second but really don't care - fresh air more likely to be second we shall see next week! |
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Sprinter Sacre (10/11) , Al Ferof (3) , Peddlers Cross (7/2) , Cue Card (7) , Menorah (10) , Blackstairmountain (16) , Bog Warrior (20) , Call The Police (33) , Kid Cassidy (33) , Cristal Bonus (40) , Sir Des Champs (40) , Astracad (80) , Foildubh (80) , Lucky William (80) , Nearest The Pin (100)
ARKLE TROPHY and what was said.......... Paul Nicholls: Al Ferof got some good experience against established two-milers at Ascot. I’m hopeful we can outstay Sprinter Sacre who could be a speed horse on flat tracks who is very keen in his races. He got outstayed by Al Ferof in last year’s Supreme and it will be interesting to see if he gets up the hill this time. Paul Nicholls thought Sprinter Sacre was by no means certain to stay as he has done all his top class form on flat tracks. PN-Jokes he has a little plan of running Sanctuaire to go off at a million miles an hour and take on Cue card & SS. Jumping the last in Supreme SS going backwards. Need a horse that stays in Arkle. Has a suspicion Al Ferof wants further but keeps winning over 2 miles & will be a tough race. Thinks SS might not get up the hill and the fact he's been running on flat tracks gives him hope. David Pipe: Sprinter Sacre is a good thing. He can go long and short and will come up the hill okay and have too much pace for his rivals. Stats there to be broken and Sprinter Sacre will break them. Only beaten handicappers but I'm So Lucky was one of them who ran in the Champion Chase last year. Sprinter Sacre beat him very well & will get up the hill. Pretty confident Sprinter Sacre will win. Philip Hobbs: Menorah jumps well for the most part but the most part isn’t good enough and especially in a race like the Arkle. A strong pace will suit him better but I don’t think he can beat Sprinter Sacre but he has a good place chance. Philip Hobbs says Menorah jumps well at home, but does make the odd mistake, which he will need to avoid on the day. Doesn’t think anything can beat Sprinter Sacre Paul Jones: Stats point to Peddlers Cross but in my heart of hearts I think the only thing can stop Sprinter Sacre is him being too brave at a fence. The hill argument is a red herring as he has had a wind op since last year, he has physically improved since last year plus the Arkle is a shorter race than the Supreme and they jump five more obstacles so it’s not quite as all-out a gallop as the Supreme is which means that would be against Al Ferof. Paul Jones says Sprinter Sacre is the one to beat, reminded us the best “hurdler” often wins the Arkle, and that would be Peddlers Cross Andrew King: Sprinter Sacre is my lay of the meeting. He can not win! He is not guaranteed to come up the hill and folded tamely last year in the Supreme. He is up against strong stayers here and four Cheltenham Festival winners and he has yet to win at the course. At around Evens he is too short. Andrew King wanted to oppose Sprinter Sacre big time, doesn’t think Cheltenham will suit, similar to the Supreme last year Charlie Longsdon: Barry Geraghty rode Moscow Flyer and he seems to think that Sprinter Sacre is in a different league to him so I can’t go against him. Flat tracks may suit him better and he has not done it yet at Cheltenham like four of his rivals but, even so. Peddlers Cross to chase him home. Andrew Tinkler: Sptrinter Sacre needs very little introduction now. I made the running on French Opera at Newbury at what I thought was championship pace and he just breezed by me at half-way like I wasn’t even there. He has to work on his own at home as nothing can live with him and we don’t want to break the hearts of horses like Oscar Whisky by working with him. The intention was sit him in behind at Newbury so he can learn but that only lasted about five fences as he just took off past them without even trying. He was a shell of a horse last year which is why he didn’t get up the hill but came back to us looking unrecognisable after the summer and has grown up now. Kevan Minter: The stats are against Sprinter Sacre as favourites have a poor Arkle record but I still see it as a match between him and Peddlers Cross. Paul Binfield said it was quite possible Sprinter Sacre could go off at odds on Noel Meade even went as far as believing Sprinter Sacre could be the best he’s ever seen. Patrick Mullins was adamant that Sprinter Sacre was his lay of the meeting and believed he would be caught by one of the other previous course winners. John Francome: Sprinter Sacre Jessica Harrington: Sprinter Sacre"Machine". Barry Geraghty told her he is better than Moscow Flyer. Tom Segal: Sprinter Sacre/Menorah ew Davy Russell: Sprinter Sacre"Unbeatable " Bog warrior wont travel unless soft ground. DR – Sprinter Sacre is hard to beat, but is keen on Peddlers Cross. Bog Warrior does not run. Henry de Bromhead: Al Ferof Mike Cattermole: Sprinter Sacre Jim McGrath: Sprinter Sacre Alice Plunkett: Sprinter Sacre blown everyone away. Saw him at Nicky Henderson's described him as an absolute beast of a horse. Joe Tizzard: Can't not be impressed by Sprinter Sacre. Cue Card done nothing wrong glad Bob's Worth beat him at Newbury as he feels CC a 2 miler Colin thought he was a stayer. Had a knock could be a blessing in disguise not running in Game Spirit against SS. Made Oiseau De Nuit look very average in a racecourse gallop. Goes into the race confident. Will bounce him out in front but needs to get it right as doesn't want to play into Al Ferof's hands. Tanya Stephenson: Says Sprinter Sacre has stats against him. Peddlers Cross a drifter thinks he goes Jewson. Puts up Menorah thinks he will jump better going faster. Paddy Power: Special money back if SS wins. Latest figure at 3 million payout if he wins. Thinks they have made a mistake. Plenty of money for Al Ferof. Ruby Walsh: Al Ferof needs to improve to beat Sprinter Sacre, but has an each way chance. Peddlers Cross is not a good enough jumper and spends too much time in the air. Barry Geraghty: Sprinter Sacre to win. No worries about the hill. Paddy Power: Sprinter Sacre. Colm Murphy: Sprinter Sacre. Donn McClean: Sprinter Sacre. Ted Walsh jr: in a similar vein to Patrick Mullins last week, ‘Sprinter Sacre is the lay of the meeting’, and he’s confident Al Ferof can win again at the festival. Kevin O’Ryan: has heard the stable are getting increasingly concerned that Peddlers Cross has not shown much at home recently with maybe the alternative plan being a better option for him. He thinks Sprinter Sacre is beatable with Al Ferof the most likely. Gordon Elliot saying that the 'vibes weren't good for Peddlers Cross in the Arkle' (Presume that came from Jason Maguire) |
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he didnt get home last year but henderson didnt want to run him and geraghty didnt ride him,they dont seem to have any doubts this year
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