Cheltenham Festival
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Sprinter Sacre - Arkle Winner 2012
Sprinter Sacre - Arkle Winner 2012
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Have been in correspondence with someone who insists that Al Ferof is the value in the Arkle
Anyway, to try and see whether I could see where he is coming from I have been through all my figures for the race again and to my surprise I now have Cue Card clearly in front of AL Ferof. Must admit this made me raise an eyebrow and make one of those of I see noises. I will have to cogitate on how this conclusion may be exploited betting wise. It does make me think Al Ferof is even worse value than I originally thought, because I already had him miles behind SS and potentially behind PC (jury out) but now I definitely have him behind Cue Card too... hmm |
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Sprinter Sacre gives me a hard on. Horse is potentially our new Kauto Star. Owner mentions stepping up in trip at some point.
That win lto is racing p0rn. |
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what a surprise judo!!
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still,i had CC as a live danger to AF,sames as i do with PC,and SS.
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I originally ha AF well clear in my mind of CC and hadn't given it much more thought than that
so I was surprised when the numbers came out the other way. I have never liked Cue Card and don't like his jockey. They are probably going to front run which is a negative for the Arkle. But Cue Card gave 7lb and a 4 length beating to FNS, AF beat him less than a length at levels and my ratings for the two efforts are 148 CC and 132 AF Seeing I have SS on 175 and PC on 161 I don't think it really matters but I want to try and work out if there is a betting angle I haven't explored yet |
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Dont think you should ignore the fact that FNS jumped really well against Al Ferof,and made a serious error in the home straight against CC.Jumping is crucial.
Be careful when looking at ratings imo,they dont always tell the whole story. |
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Talking of jumping,i have CC as probably the worst jumper of the 4 most likely winners of the race,that could well be a deciding factor,often is in a novice chase.
If CC jumps really well though i see him as a real threat,he wont be stopping as hes proven over further this season. |
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yeah as I say, I don't like the horse at all and it all just confirms to me that, if the ratings are accurate (and I am obliged to believe they are), neither are good enough. I'm just trying to work out how I can use it
One will be to lay CC in running if he shortens up and I wondering if I can place lay AF then back him back at much bigger when he is taken off his feet early (we expect to stay on strongly towards the end but it might look like he is well beat 3 or 4 from home) hmm... |
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I can't help it bud, he just wants to obliterate every field he faces. He devours the fences, geraghty already saying he's as good as moscow but more flamboyant.
I really don't like arkle favs as working with such short odds with not enough form in the book is dangerous. But I've him in a god few accas and am tempted to go in at the track if he's odds against. To think how high he might go is very exiting. |
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Now that SS is getting close to evens it's probably time to re assess whether that represents value. Not a lot has changed since his Kempton win yet his price has contracted from 5/2 since another victory at
Newbury which imo was no better than his Doncaster and Kempton wins. One thing that has changed though is the information that he has had a breathing operation since last season, for me this can only be a negative. The effects of a breathing op tend to not last forever , when will it re-occur? They must have thought he really didn't get up the hill last year because of his breathing. These slight doubts about his breathing are easily catered for at 6/1 and 5/2 but at evens it's far from ideal. For those who have backed him at bigger prices is it now time to trade out? Other info that has come to light is that McCain has reported that PC's run at kempton was due to back problems. When will that re-occur? the undulations and big fences of Cheltenham are hardly the ideal place for a horse with back problems. Possible problems have arisen over the last few weeks about the above 2 horses yet both have contracted in price. |
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It was well known that Sprinter Sacre had a small breathing op in the summer. Plenty of good horses have had breathing operations I can't see it as being much of a negative. Peddler's Cross who knows really what his injury was. As a backer you would be hoping it was nothing major as it could easily reoccur but at the same time would want it to be significant enough to answer for a 16 length beating on the snaff.
I think Sprinter Sacre has improved with each run this season and you can't compare the Game Spirit with Doncaster even though both were visually impressive. I still think if you are yet to play at 5/4 he looks a short but fair price. You can't expect anyone to lay much bigger than that the evidence is there for all to see. It's turned into a popular boat and you will have to pay the price to get on. He is miles clear on form whether you want to admit it or not. Myself the handicapper & the Racing Post all have it as the highest quality performance by a novice this season and he did it without breaking a sweat. If I was in the position of not being on the horse yet I would probably take a step back and not have a huge bet in the race. Possibly looking to back something e/w or just chuck £20 on Sprinter Sacre in the hope of backing a new star. I think anyone sat on 2/1 upwards have a fantastic bet. In regards to Peddlers Cross with the new confidence behind the horse and D McCain stating they will take on Sprinter Sacre "head on" I wonder what tactics they are hoping to employ. I can't say I can see him being too far off the pace. Could he take it up after half way? Obviously a lot will depend on what SS does as very few will be able to go with him if he ups the pace. |
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It was well known that Sprinter Sacre had a small breathing op in the summer
I don't re-call anyone mentioning it on here up until the last week ,so I doubt it's been well known. If PC takes SS on for the lead or presses anywhere near him I think Pc's jumping will fall to bits. His best chance maybe to keep out of his way at the back of the field and try and pounce late on. |
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If SS is evens on the day I'll probably let my bet stand.
@ 4/6 - 1/2 I'll be trading out @ 4/9 or worse I'd be inclined to trade out and lay the horse. As stated on an earlier post I'll be looking to have a bet on SS winning by a large margin 10 lengths +. Hopefully saturdays race will have encouraged the bookies to price this market up. |
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It was mentioned in the press and on this thread I believe. Just don't think people paid any attention to it. I agree I don't think Peddler's can go toe to toe with Sprinter Sacre but he has to try. He doesn't strike me as a hold up horse though.
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Peddlers one for the gold cup next year imv if he is beaten in the arkle.
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Peddlers back to hurdles imo, don't think he's a chaser and you have to wonder whether chasing the Champion Hurdle left its mark.
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Personally think in novice races at the festival,the proven ability to get home is probably one of the most important things,particularly off a faster pace than they have been used to travelling at.
SS might be the wonder horse,but for me hes the only one of the fancied horses that has not proven he can dig deep and get the job done if he needs to. Normally thats whats required to win a novice race at the festival, so on that basis at the prices the value has to be AF and CC for me. Of course if SS IS the wonder horse then i lose out,but seldom does this happen,and im willing to take a hit when it does. |
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Ever been on a roundabout,Budde ? Where it stops nobody knows!
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Sint, this one doesn't stop
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Few new people on the thread now.
Feel free to go away Sint,you dont need to keep poking your head in. |
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I think we should start a swear box but instead call it a repeat box. Everytime Budde repeats the same point he should stick £1 in to go to the IJF. They'd be minted !
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Dont think we need to be like that Sint,you have made yer point.
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Only messing with you Buddelia
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Dunno if you've actually watched at the CC/FNS race Judorick, or if you've just looked at the result. Whilst Bud is correct that FNS put in a bit of a stopper at 3 out, what he failed to mention is the CC hardly met one right the whole way round, losing ground and momentum at every fence, which his engine allowed him to make up between obstacles. I was on fairly big that day as I thought he was a bonkers price as the class horse in the race and my heart was in my mouth the whole way round!
I personally don't think that anything will beat SS on the day now, but I backed CC straight after that performance and will do SS beats CC in a S/F at the course, as I still think that he is the one that can make a race of it if things go his way. |
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Carry on Budd. I'd rather read people repeating themselves than people gushing or talking about their erections.
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coooooooooooooom onnnnnnnnnnnn
Nap of the week |
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DO,
Cue Card tends to be a bit like that with his jumping mate,but yes you are right in the fact that i did concentrate on FNS's jumping comparing the 2 races concerned. Cue Card for me has to jump better to win in this field otherwise i feel he just loses ground.If he does hes value at the prices imo. AF and SS certainly have jumped very well this season and PC looked a good jumper till The 1st fence at Kempton. At the prices though,i do think CC is worth the risk. |
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You're dead right Bud, the other three have all shown more ability at getting from one side to the other so far. But they're novices and at the prices I'm hopeful that CC can improve that aspect, in which case, he is to my eye the most credible challenger. PC has already been well beaten by SS and your fella, I dunno, I'm just convinced he is good enough at 2m (he'll be a force over further next year, no doubt). I think SS would've won that VC, it was Somersbys first ever Grade 1 win and at a trip short of his best. I think the second looks like a weak finisher - and from last years crop of substandard novices. Sorry pal, just my view, I know he is the apple of your eye
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Fair enough mate,and you may well be right,and also you are right about them being novices and improvement.
Dont know about the Apple of my eye,that accolade belongs to Oscar Whisky,he gets me excited(sorry thieves ).I just think AF is tailor made for a 2m nov chase at Cheltenham,and has what it takes to win the race. |
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Well, I certainly wish you luck with OW, it's a no bet race for me, but it would be nice to see BBs colours lowered before he obliterates everyones memory of the Drever completely
 As an aside, and I know this ain't the place, but the only game I love more that NH racing is Rugby Union, I go to games whenever possible and my lad plays to county standard and could well be capable of more. Nobody is a bigger England fan than me, but I love money too and Wales at even money giving us just 3.5pts on Saturday is too good to ignore. Load up your chelters coffers Bud and have yourself a saver on CC on me!!!! |
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Well beating BB is going to be tough to say the least,but win or lose i just love watching OW run.He jumps well,travels like a dream and always gives his all,real touch of class hes got.
I will be having a saver on CC mate,but doubt i will get involved with the Rugby,seems a big price though. |
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Tinkler - 'It was well known that Sprinter Sacre had a small breathing op in the summer. I don't re-call anyone mentioning it on here up until the last week ,so I doubt it's been well known'.
I posted on Dec 12 on this thread - As i said above, I thought Sprinter arguably travelled like the best horse in the race last yr. I believe he was beaten because he pulled too hard early, and maybe he got racing too early in the race, leaving little left for when the chips were down. He has also had a wind op since, who knows whether it will work, but the way he flattened out last yr (admittedly after pulling) was suggestive of a possible wind issue. |
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(others doubtless posted beforehand).
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Btw, I am not trying to be clever with that post, just to point out that the news had been well publicised.
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Fair enough, my mistake.
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No, not at all Tinkler, it does seem to have slipped under the radar. And at this stage, we have no idea if it will make any difference!
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And my post above did sounds hideously self-aggradising, which I did honestly not intend, so apologies!
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Andrew Tinkler made some interesting comments at a Festival Preview..
Sprinter Sacre needs very little introduction now. I made the running on French Opera at Newbury at what I thought was championship pace and he just breezed by me at half-way like I wasn’t even there. He has to work on his own at home as nothing can live with him and we don’t want to break the hearts of horses like Oscar Whisky by working with him. The intention was sit him in behind at Newbury so he can learn but that only lasted about five fences as he just took off past them without even trying. He was a shell of a horse last year which is why he didn’t get up the hill but came back to us looking unrecognisable after the summer and has grown up now. Astonishing to think with the classy hurdler's etc. at Nicky's yard he has to work on his own. |
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Yes that makes for pretty incredible reading. Surely Binocular or Grandouet could work with him?
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Well Done Desmond O. Didn't even need the handicap.
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