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The Champion Hurdle Thread

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Replies: 1,687
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 16 Jan 11 18:15
thought Binocular was good - hope HF and PC are similarly impressive next w/e so that Menorah continues to drift right up until and on the day.
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Jan 11 19:04
Big day for me next week. Dunguib and HF should be very interesting. Hope I have this one right.
By:
Wicketd
When: 16 Jan 11 19:15
if it's another slow pace crawl I won't be too keen on Dunguib's chances personally. I think he'll need the truly run champion.
By:
R Carver
When: 16 Jan 11 19:39
As i've said above, i would not have thought McCain would have sent PC to the Fighting Fifth in any way short of fitness. Yes, most horses improve for the run, and yes he may have only been 95% and not 110%, but as McCain needed to know whether to send his horse down the champion or stayers hurdle route, what would he learn by taking on Binocular only 50% or 80% fit?

I am sure he'll improve for the run and sure he's entitled to improve physically due to his age and inexperience, and I am sure McCain would not have had him totally spot on in November, but i dont believe McCain is daft enough to see whther he has a Champion Hurdle horse by running his horse against a brillaint Champion Hurdler when only half fit!
By:
Steeplechasing
When: 16 Jan 11 19:49
Timeform agreed on the ground description yesterday - good to soft - and Binocular had no problem with it.  He looked to have a real appetite yesterday and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the first 4 throughout, no matter the pace at Cheltenham.  He seemed to enjoy being involved from the outset.

I think aka's theory that a very fast pace is the key to him, rather than ground conditions, looks to be gaining more credence.  A couple of personal observations - I thought he got very close indeed to the first three hurdles before lifting his front legs - I cannot recall a horse that delayed take-off so long without making errors.  Once he'd warmed up though, he measured them with precision.

I think AP slightly underestimated Overturn as Bino looked marginally chopped for pace - just for a few moments - after turning in; AP shook him up and, I think expected him to sail past the pacemaker but Overturn quickened each time and AP had to wind things up just a wee bit more than he'd expected.

Once he'd established his superiority though it was just a few flourishes of the whip to keep him going.  I thought his stride was shortening approaching the line, probably because AP had eased off a bit or maybe because the trainer has still left something to work on, but it did plant a tiny seed in my mind that perhaps being involved from the outset, might have taken a bit more out of him than many thought.  If this proved to be the case, perhaps a similar prominent ride in a hot-paced Champion Hurdle would not be such a good idea.  But, given Overturn's tenacity and ability to quicken and PC's proven capacity to lie up with the pace and still find more, it will prove a fascinating tactical challenge for Binocular's connections, especially with the the thought of the Fly ghosting along with his proven turn of foot.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 16 Jan 11 20:23
Two smashing races next w/e to tell us more - I'm off to Haydock. Did I read that Henderson is sending Soldatino to take on Peddlers?
By:
denman85
When: 16 Jan 11 20:26
imo good ground - binocular wins comfortably , if ground is good/ soft or soft HF and dunguib will take all some pegging back
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 17 Jan 11 22:22
regarding binocular imo that the value has gone after his win at kempton 5s was a fair price b4 kemp but 5/2 now is not value also i am a huge fan of bino but looking at the horses he beat in champion k.kim ,zaynar .celest halo ,solwhit,ect,did he beat a bunch of staying horses  he was impressive but more importantley will he be able to go past  menorah,peddlers cross,h fly ,dunguib ect,  in the same way maybee but imo he is goin to have to better than ever hes with a master at bringing a horse to the boil at the right time so its possible  , at the prices peddlers cross is interesting me more unbeaten and mcain has a line on bino thru overturn and untill hes beaten we dont know how good he is, 6s looks a fair price but i dont think he will get much shorter with bino & h,fly due to race again in next few weeks and both should win indeed peddlers may drift b4 the champion as he is with a stable that is not as high profile as mullins and hendersons, the fly looks a machine and  must have a great chance and 4 s is about right but has no festival form and will he be able to quicken off a frantic pace possibly yes he may be even better off a fast pace so he is a major player ,menorah is also right in the mix a fast run race   suits him and he has shown he can battle it out to the line anything that gets past him will know its had a race ,then theres oscar whiskey not much to find with menorah on last years supeme form he may be best over further but you could not rule him out at  16s then we have dunguib he  could be the e.way value at around the same price as he raced on the outside in supreme and if his jumping has improved he must be a danger to all surely they will ride him differentley in the champion, he hasnt got a lot to find with menorah and he is expected to need the run in irish champion so his price should be stable, at the prices  peddlers cross 6s & dunguib 16 s are the ones i am interested in at the moment good luck to all
By:
aka
When: 17 Jan 11 22:52
Good summary, Foyleswar. The upcoming renewal looks like it may have far more strength in depth than was the case with the 2010 race and seemingly it is going to prove a much tougher challenge for Binocular.

One thing I like about Binocular is that he is proving himself to be a very good stayer. He is building up a good clutch of comparatively high TS ratings from truly run races where he has lasted home well off a strong pace for the conditions. For Saturday's race, the TS rating was again quite high, at 159. He has several TS ratings now over 150, which in terms of that particular measure puts him quite a bit ahead of the others. Add in his superb hurdling and the fact he is not short of tactical speed, he would clearly be a major scalp for any of the other contenders to take.

I agree though that there is a good case to be made for several of the others too. There is also Mille Chief to add your list, as a lively outsider who could go into the race as quite a dark horse (appropriately, given his colouring).
By:
Paul4
When: 17 Jan 11 23:04
think mille chief, soldatino, silviniaco conti and oscar whisky all have a chance of making the frame whilst going into the race as relative dark horses!
By:
aka
When: 17 Jan 11 23:42
Yes, looking forward to seeing Soldatino again. A grey dark horse; there is probably a betting tip in there somewhere.

There are so many interesting runners at this stage. In fact, we must be knocking up against the entry limit in terms of the number of horses who could be aimed at this.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 18 Jan 11 00:17
agree aka it is a hard race to get a handle on as there are so many possible winners and talking of mille chief as you say a very interesting outsider with a reasonable chance at a good price ,i dont know if he is entered but salden lihgt also trained by a.king  won a h,cap the other week  off top weight and said to be going for the tote gold trophy if he were to win that  impressively he could well be in the mix as he was decent on the flat and interesting to see if and what price  he is quoted for the c,hurdle, also soldatino nicky henderson often has 2 or more in the race punjabi comes to mind and as you say soldatino if he was to turn over peddlers cross at haydock next week then what price would he be for the champion hurdle i think i will have a saver on him as well at a big price ,all in all the race is a nightmare to solve in veiw of the competetive nature of the race i will be going in with 3 or -4 at good prices and take on the front 3 in the betting
By:
Paul4
When: 18 Jan 11 00:23
exactly what i have done foyleswar. can pick form of HF, binocular and menorah in my opinion, and peddlers cross's form through binocular i guess cud be picked aswel. so i've got big big prices about a few of the others
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 18 Jan 11 00:48
well done on getting the big prices  paul, i always try to avoid favs especially at the festival have only been on this site a few days and having a few probs getting funds in but should be o.k tommorow ,so will be having some of the 63 -1 soldatino for about £30 -40  hopefully ,the bigger the price the more you should put on good luck
By:
brigust1
When: 18 Jan 11 14:59
Dunguib entered Sunday, only 9/2 for Irish Champion.
It's been a long wait and it's nearly over. Expecting a win, nothing less. Don't want any of this 'a place would be good enough'.
I want to see a decent pace and the jockey giving me more confidence.
Bring it on.
By:
Autocue
When: 18 Jan 11 17:52
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. "Dunguib has been ruled out of the Irish Champion Hurdle on Sunday after being blood tested. Plenty of time to get him right for the Champion Hurdle."
Will never be right for the Champion Hurdle. Sooner he goes over fences the better.
By:
Paul4
When: 18 Jan 11 17:56
been blood tested? that mean has an illness?
By:
Steeplechasing
When: 18 Jan 11 18:37
Dracula - Bad Blood Count
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 19 Jan 11 12:52
ENTRIES ?
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 19 Jan 11 13:00
HERE ARE THE 31 fyi..............

Alaivan (IRE) E. J. O'Grady, Ireland  11st 10lb
Barizan (IRE) Evan Williams  11st 10lb
Binocular (FR) Nicky Henderson  11st 10lb
Blackstairmountain (IRE) W. P. Mullins, Ireland  11st 10lb
Bygones of Brid (IRE) Karen McLintock  11st 10lb
Celestial Halo (IRE) Paul Nicholls  11st 10lb
Clerk's Choice (IRE) Michael Banks  11st 10lb
Cristal Bonus (FR) Evan Williams  11st 10lb
Cue Card Colin Tizzard  11st 10lb
Dunguib (IRE) Philip Fenton, Ireland  11st 10lb
Get Me Out of Here (IRE) Jonjo O'Neill  11st 10lb
Hurricane Fly (IRE) W. P. Mullins, Ireland  11st 10lb
Khyber Kim Nigel Twiston-Davies  11st 10lb
Menorah (IRE) Philip Hobbs  11st 10lb
Mille Chief (FR) Alan King  11st 10lb
Notus de La Tour (FR) David Pipe  11st 10lb
Oscar Whisky (IRE) Nicky Henderson  11st 10lb
Overturn (IRE) Donald McCain  11st 10lb
Peddlers Cross (IRE) Donald McCain  11st 10lb
Ronaldo des Mottes (FR) David Pipe  11st 10lb
Salden Licht Alan King  11st 10lb
Silviniaco Conti (FR) Paul Nicholls  11st 10lb
Soldatino (FR) Nicky Henderson  11st 10lb
Solix (FR) Nicky Henderson  11st 10lb
Solwhit (FR) Charles Byrnes, Ireland  11st 10lb
Starluck (IRE) Alan Fleming  11st 10lb
Sublimity (FR) Robert Hennessy, Ireland  11st 10lb
Thousand Stars (FR) W. P. Mullins, Ireland  11st 10lb
Tocca Ferro (FR) Emma Lavelle  11st 10lb
Walkon (FR) Alan King  11st 10lb
Zaynar (FR) Nicky Henderson  11st 10lb
By:
Viper Wiper
When: 19 Jan 11 13:04
Silviniaco Conti = overpriced/forgotten horse. Was as short as 8/1 before the Bula, now 40+ on here and seemingly still being targeted at the Champion. Not a bad effort in a race not run to suit last time and giving 4lbs to Cue Card and Menorah. Nicholls far from downbeat after either: "Back off level weights in March, it could be a different story. He's still very light and I think I can get him better. They are three super horses and there's very little between them."

Now rated 162 - (same as Peddlers Cross, 2lb below Menorah) yet the price discrepancy is massive. It's a very hot year, but 16s is more like it. Ground shouldn’t bother him either way and strong pace assured.
By:
Paul4
When: 19 Jan 11 13:33
amen to that viper wiper
By:
aka
When: 21 Jan 11 17:54
Graham Cunningham has added what I thought was an interesting reflection on the Christmas Hurdle. He was complimentary about Binocular's run, but also indicated that he thought there might not have been that much left in the tank at the end. He is not necessarily right, of course, but some food for thought there.

The Christmas Hurdle was a reasonably true run race on ground a little softer than ideal for the first three home. Binocular put in an impressive performance and won the race reasonably emphatically. When they win like that it is easy to take the eye off any signs of how much the winner might have had left at the end of the race.

Having looked at the closing stages of the race again a few times, I can see where Cunningham is coming from, though perhaps not sufficiently so to agree entirely with his observation. I also take on board the point often made about how Henderson trains his horses for the Festival, so that he may still have left a little more to work on with Binocular fitness wise coming into the Christmas Hurdle.

A lot hinges on this issue of just how strong a stayer Binocular is, imo. It is hard to find many chinks in his armour. His hurdling looks rock solid and, off a fast pace, he probably has enough speed to be able to mix it well enough with the speedier types over two miles. He is also clearly proving to be a stronger stayer over two miles than many thought he would. But how strong? How close have we been to seeing his breaking point exposed in the fast run races he has competed in so far?

As someone who is favouring Binocular at this stage, there is the slight concern that he may have come closer to "hitting the wall" in some of his winning runs than might appear from a superficial consideration. If he is to be beaten, one of the more likely scenarios is that it will be by a horse that can hang tough longer than he is able to when the effects of the oxygen deficit take hold in the final stages of the race (assuming we get a strong end-to-end gallop).

Any thoughts on this very welcome.
By:
brigust1
When: 21 Jan 11 18:27
The second in the Christmas hurdle is no mug and, although I strongly fancied and backed the winner, I wasn't surprised it was a hard race. After all the vast majority on here never even considered him as the winner.
Now all Nicky has to do is keep him right. His jumping is back and he is on top of his game. Whether or not he is the best horse in the race will be decided at Cheltenham.
This time last year everything was going wrong but not now. I wouldn't put anyone off backing him but I would wait until the others have run before backing him now if they haven't already done so. I do, however, think he will shorten up on the day in the last hour. Like he did at Kempton.
By:
Paul4
When: 21 Jan 11 18:37
after cue card beats zaidpour first up, then ghizao/finian's rainbow beats flat out/realt dubh, the irish will lump on the hurricane and the english will lump on the champ, leaving nice prices about the rest :D
By:
brigust1
When: 21 Jan 11 18:52
Sorry to rain on your parade Paul but Dunguib wins the CH.
I've  backed Zaidpour/Cue Card in the Supreme, Zaidpour/ Cue Card in the Neptune in cross trebles with HF, Binocular and Dunguib. So I hope you are right, partly.
By:
Steeplechasing
When: 21 Jan 11 19:00
Interesting comment from GC aka - here's an extract from my post of 16 Jan:

Once he'd established his superiority though it was just a few flourishes of the whip to keep him going. I thought his stride was shortening approaching the line, probably because AP had eased off a bit or maybe because the trainer has still left something to work on, but it did plant a tiny seed in my mind that perhaps being involved from the outset, might have taken a bit more out of him than many thought.  If this proved to be the case, perhaps a similar prominent ride in a hot-paced Champion Hurdle would not be such a good idea.  But, given Overturn's tenacity and ability to quicken and PC's proven capacity to lie up with the pace and still find more, it will prove a fascinating tactical challenge for Binocular's connections, especially with the the thought of the Fly ghosting along with his proven turn of foot.
By:
Steeplechasing
When: 21 Jan 11 19:03
Incidentally, I think Binocular very poor value now and probably even one to lay given the potential strength of the race.  We'll learn little about PC tomorrow, unless he loses or struggles.
By:
CVByrne
When: 21 Jan 11 19:18
That's why I took plenty of him @ 5/1 Steeple. 5.5pts in total. I would personally love if Binocular could win over 2m4f then he'd have pretty much everything in his armoury to be worthy of his current odds.

We are forgetting the fact that they under watered the track last year. I've a feeling they'll make sure it's softer ground than it was last year which may tire binocular a bit more, like what happened in 08.
By:
zilzal1
When: 21 Jan 11 19:21
We have to wait until after the Supreme to find out as well Laugh, wish id been at Kempton to see Overturns connections in the unsaddling enclosure.
By:
buddeliea
When: 21 Jan 11 19:29
CV,could you explain your post above,well the bit about 2m4f??
if you dont mind,as i fail to see why he needs that to be worthy of his current odds.
He is the current Champion,after all.
By:
CVByrne
When: 21 Jan 11 20:00
If the ground is softer than last year (like it was in 09) it would be good to know he has stamina to deal with it. Istabraq won over 2m and 2m4f and it's, in my opinion, a benefit if a horse can win over both distances. It's a minor point and I'm very happy with my large bet on him.

On another note, I have a feeling both binocular and hurricane fly will come in for significant support on the day and all other runners will be available at some point better than their current antepost odds. I think this race is over as an antepost market.
By:
Paul4
When: 21 Jan 11 20:00
brigust i was sweet on dunguib but not as much now still hasnt had a run... have taken abit of the 20s in case though, but if u read my post i said that irish lump on fly, english lump on bin, n nice prices will be left about the others, e.g. dunguib ;)
By:
aka
When: 21 Jan 11 20:09
Thanks for those thoughts, Brigust, Steeple, CV - very helpful.

I thought McCoy gave Binocular a nice ride in the Champion Hurdle last time and the way the race unfolded, in many ways, also suited the type of ride they appeared to want for the horse. For various reasons, it might not be quite as straight forward to get it right tactically this time, which adds further interest to the race.

Riding Binocular so close up with the pace in the Christmas Hurdle was insightful in terms of the potential for revealing a slightly different side to the horse. It possibly did leave the impression that it was as much of that type of a ride as Binocular would want and had Overturn been able to hold on for a little further, it would have been very interesting to see the outcome.

They should be able to settle Binocular in midfield again in the CH and then move up to join the pace in the second half of the race, possibly aiming to cover the front ones even earlier than was the case in the 2010 renewal. But if it turns out that when Binocular closes on the pace he has to chase the coat tails of a strong front runner for a fair way in the closing stages of the race, rather than pass them on the bridle with relative ease as he did in 2010, it will be interesting to see how resolute he proves and how much extra (in terms of both class and effort) he is able to find in that situation.
By:
buddeliea
When: 21 Jan 11 20:28
fwiw,i think Bino would have no trouble in winning good races over further,but whether we actually find out for sure,i dont know,as he is more likely to be kept at 2m all the time he is winning big 2m races, and his prep leading up to March works ok.
He ran well the other day on pretty soft ground and werent really stopping,and he certainly dont look short on stamina now he has fully developed. Their aint rally a chink in his armour that i can see,and to me its simply a case of whether the other horses he will face in March are better than him. It is a better class of field this year,and i think Bino will have to put in better performance this year than last,although having said that,i do think he had something left at the end of last years race.
Fascinating horse in a lot of respects is Bino,and when he gets into that rhythm of jumping that he does sometimes,he is a thrill to watch,hurdling as it should be done.
By:
CVByrne
When: 21 Jan 11 20:42
You also have to factor that Cheltenham is his track aka, he can get a breather in the downhill sections that he wouldn't in the end to end gallop he experienced at Kempton. Also he may have caught many by surprise in the Champion last year while all will be wary of him this year.

For example I'm sure Hurricane Fly will track Binocular for the race confident that if the horse has enough left at the end his turn of foot would win him the race. But I think Peddlers Cross will hit the front pretty early and make them chase him sooner than they would have liked, getting many off the bridles a lot earlier than they have in previous races.
By:
zilzal1
When: 21 Jan 11 20:50
Lets hope they all get there in good heart, its shaping up to be one of the most fascinating Champion Hurdle's for a while.
By:
brigust1
When: 21 Jan 11 21:22
I agree, let's hope they all turn up in good form. I am getting a bit twitchy about Dunguib but I really didn't want him to take on HF at this stage. Providing he runs in the Red Mills then everything should be OK. I haven't lost faith but I am worried about his well-being.
With Peddlers running tomorrow, HF running on Sunday and Binocular having one more run, at Sandown, I can easily see them all turning up and a great race is in the offing. Betting will be interesting too.
By:
aka
When: 21 Jan 11 22:25
Yes, very lucky to have the quality of horses that are coming through in this division now.

Good point about a brisk pace at Kempton, CV, and the greater scope for getting a mid-race breather at Cheltenham. That is one of those small details that is easily overlooked, but clearly very important, for some horses (or tactics)slightly more so than for others.

As Budd indicates, at his best Binocular is a superb model of all that you would expect from a top drawer two mile hurdler. The prospect of finding another one well capable of matching him, possibly in HF, is something well worth waiting for. And the added angle of a chasing type, in PC, who supporters think might just be good enough to lead them all a merry dance, sets the race up brilliantly. And that is not mentioning Menorah and a good crop of really interesting outsiders on top.
By:
CVByrne
When: 21 Jan 11 22:38
I am against Menorah, I don't rate any of his wins as decent Champion trials. He'll have to show me on the day as I've not seen anything to make me want to support him at his current odds.
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