Cheltenham Festival
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Binocular - The reigning champion, he put in an excellent performance in last seasons Champion Hurdle to defeat Khyber Kim by 3 1/2 lengths.
Pros: Loves Cheltenham, 3 consecutive good performances at the festival, trained for one day so poor early season form not as much of a concern. Likes good ground which he gets in March. Visually classy animal who travels and jumps like the best hurdlers.
Cons: Possibly inconsistent, can pick holes in the 2010 Champion Hurdle win, analysis of the rivals Go Native (got injured), Solwhit (was sick), Zaynar (poor form since), Starluck (needs flat track), Celestial Halo, Punjabi (no longer up to Champion Hurdle class). Which leaves Khyber Kim who was a consistent animal last term, but may need softer ground over 2m and hasn't been seen yet this season. (Would have been excellent had he run in the bula against the 2nd season hurdlers)
Also Binoculars three best performances have come with Celestial Halo setting a very strong gallop resulting in horses tiring later in the race, a comparison with the Supreme field in last two years has seen the Supreme well behind with 4f left to go before catching a tiring Champion Hurdle field. Binocular has been beaten in a few races where the pace has been sedate, with no Celestial Halo and pace makes being ignored (like in the Bula) the pace of this years Champion may be slower than the past two.
Verdict: If he turns up in the form he was last time, with g/s or better ground and there is a decent rival setting a strong gallop it would take something special to beat him.
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Hurricane Fly - Without doubt the best Irish hope, fto defeat of a race fit Solwhit on his opponents ideal distance and conditions was another improvement from the little horse. Proven better than two multiple Grade 1 winners in Solwhit and Go Native.
Pros: Very consistent, gutsy, versatile, classy performer with plenty of stamina who travels exceptionally well through his races with a slick hurdling technique and an exceptional turn of foot. He has shown everything you want in a top class hurdler and as yet has exhibited no clear weakness.
He is a very exciting prospect. It is impressive how he gets to the head of affairs still on the bridle in big fields despite any trouble in running and responds every time when asked a question. Improvement will be needed and should come with an uninterrupted campaign given massive improvement shown from 1st to 2nd run in his novice days. If similar improvement is seen in his next two races and given his turn of foot, he will relish the good ground at Cheltenham and he could possibly go off fav for the Champion Hurdle.
Cons: Never even raced in England, let alone Cheltenham. Has as yet to show a level of form good enough to win a Champion Hurdle. Has twice missed Cheltenham due to injury, but this should not be too much of a concern as the horse is no value as an antepost prospect. He has yet to experience the end to end gallop that he will experience in a Champion hurdle and will have to tackle the hill for the first time. Could well go to Cheltenham having only run in 3 slowly run races in Ireland on soft ground against only Solwhit each time. Also regular jockey Paul Townend may be forced to give the ride to Ruby Walsh who has only ridden the horse once in a Novice Hurdle.
Verdict: Hugely exciting horse who looks every bit a Champion Hurdler but totally unbackable at current odds given his injury record, but certainly a big player if getting there on the back of two more good runs.
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Menorah - Supreme, Greatwood and Bula winner. He's 3/3 at Cheltenham and looks to be improving.
Pros: Well clearly his Cheltenham form is a big plus, he's won three races at the track in different manners, the Supreme where he was bumped about a bit and still got to the front to win, the Greatwood giving weight away and the bula putting the race to bed early by leaving two highly rated hurdlers in his wake with a turn of foot off the bend. He's a consistent and likeable horse who is improving.
Cons: Has he really beat enough? While Silviniaco Conti and Cue Card are highly rated neither achieved their ratings in a 2mile open company hurdle race, both are 4yo's and hugely inexperienced having run a combined 5 hurdle races between them going into the bula. So is a 5l defeat of Silviniaco Conti in receipt of 4lbs really form to beat the likes of Binocular, Khyber Kim and Hurricane Fly in a Champion Hurdle? In my opinion most certainly not, but he is an improver, so he may well improve again to feature.
Also the horse will go chasing next season if he fails to win the Champion, horses with set plans from an early stage to go chasing have a poor record in the Champion Hurdle, it's that they lack the slickness over hurdles that top class hurdlers have. It's like "we'll have a go at the Champion Hurdle before we go Chasing".
Verdict: An improving horse how could well improve enough to win, but 4/1f for the race is a complete farce given what he's beat, he's completely unbackable at those prices and a drift to 6/1 on the day is almost certain, huge lay at current odds for those inclined.
Peddlers Cross - Unbeaten hurdler who was winner of the Neptune at the festival and claimed the scalp of the Champion Binocular in the Fighting Fifth.
Pros: Well he's unbeaten for a start, he's got stamina having won over 2m5f at the festival something he'll need in a Champion Hurdle, he has the speed for 2m given he won the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth (a race which has featured the last 3 Champion hurdle winners). What was interesting about the FF win was how he found plenty off the bridle, how he picked up again after the last when challenged a trait that is very likable and reminds us of the tough battlers Hardy Eustace and Brace Inca. With another run to come at Haydock in January we will get to see more of Peddlers and hopeful see improvement and get more clues.
Cons: How fit was the Binocular he beat? The visual impression was of Binocular travelling up on the bit to jump the last then blowing up, it was a far cry from the binocular who powered up the hill in the Champion Hurdle. It's also more likely that Peddlers was more fit than Binocular that day, if you want to test yourself against the Champ you're going to give yourself every chance of victory. Plus a horse who stays 2m5f at Cheltenham is going to tire less fto than 2m horses. Also he is another horse who will go chasing next season if he fails to win the Champion.
Verdict: Hard to judge his 2m form on that Fighting Fifth win, would need to show more on his next outing at Haydock, can't be discounted and would love to see them go off at a Celestial Halo pace like last year and try run them into the ground, especially as he seems to find more each time a horse comes to him. 13/2 represents better value than Menorah, but still not enough to back at. Better value will be present in January when horses run over Christmas
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Khyber Kim - Last seasons form of 1121 is impressive, and he ran a cracking race to be 2nd to binocular, a level of form that would win most champion hurdles. He seems a different horse since he left Henderson.
Pros: Consistent performer, who could easily win the Champion Hurdle if running to the same level he did in the last renewal. 4 of the last 6 winners of the Champion Hurdle had run in the race the previous year. Having a later start this season in the hope he is as fresh as possible in March could elicit improvement and slightly softer ground may tip things in his favour. Like Binocular his season revolves around one race.
Cons: Unlike the others at the top of the market he was beaten well, on merit by Binocular in the Champion there seems no reason he should reverse that form given he'll be 9 next year with Binocular the prime age of 7. Is he flattered by his form last season given what he beat in the Greatwood (Harry Tricker, Medermit), the Bula (Celestial Halo, Medermit, Punjabi), the Champion (Zaynar, Celestial Halo, Starluck) and Aintree (Muirhead, Zaynar). It would have been very informative had he run in the bula this year.
Verdict: At 16/1 he represents the e/w value at this stage given his consistency, the place side odds of 4/1 prices him at a 20% chance to finish in the first three. A win in the Christmas Hurdle would see his odds shorten considerably.
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Dunguib - The once wonder horse was comical prices to win both last season's and this season Champion Hurdle before the bubble was burst in the Supreme and Punchestown.
Pros: He has a serious cruising speed and some serious pace, there is buckets of talent there for sure. He's been given time off for a Spring Campaign, with intense schooling to improve his hurdling and in an effort to not run him on heavy ground in Ireland which would mean he'll be fresh come the Champion Hurdle. He could easily have won the Supreme had they not given him such an over confident ride, had that happened who knows what price he would be now. If hurdling is improved and he is ridden close to the pace he could still be a big player in the 2m division.
Cons: By word he can't jump a hurdle at all, nothing has a hope of winning a champion hurdle if they can't jump. Especially given the class of the opposition. Menorah has gone on and improved since the Supreme, Dunguib hasn't as yet shown any reason to believe he can reverse the Supreme form.
Verdict: Can't possibly back him until we see him run in the Irish Champion, he might be some value at the 25/1 you can get, but only if there is positive words on his hurdling.
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Silviniaco Conti: Only running in this as they have nothing else in the race, 16/1 is terrible value and couldn't see him reversing form with Menorah given how easily he was outpaced.
Solwhit: Unlikely to run, trainer said if a race fit Solwhit can't beat Hurricane Fly over 2m4f on soft ground they have no hope of beating him over 2m on good ground at Cheltenham. Odds on to skip Cheltenham like last year and go for the 2m4f Aintree Hurdle.
Celestial Halo: Unlikely runner, will skip the festival and focus on the Aintree Hurdle or will run in the World Hurdle with a view to taking over from Big Bucks next season when he inevitably goes chasing.
Starluck: can only win on a flat track, even if he wins the Christmas Hurdle he can't win the Champion.
Oscar Whiskey: Seems to be a bit forgotten, interesting how he shapes on his first run in the Christmas Hurdle.
Selections:
Khyber Kim 1pt e/w @ 16/1
He represents the best value at this stage.
Binocular 2pts win @ 5/1
If you are going to back him there seems no downside to not backing him now, if he wins at Kempton he shortens if he loses he'll still go off on the day shorter than 5/1.
My main bet remains a total of 5pts on Hurricane Fly at odds from 12/1 to 9/1.
Pros: Loves Cheltenham, 3 consecutive good performances at the festival, trained for one day so poor early season form not as much of a concern. Likes good ground which he gets in March. Visually classy animal who travels and jumps like the best hurdlers.
Cons: Possibly inconsistent, can pick holes in the 2010 Champion Hurdle win, analysis of the rivals Go Native (got injured), Solwhit (was sick), Zaynar (poor form since), Starluck (needs flat track), Celestial Halo, Punjabi (no longer up to Champion Hurdle class). Which leaves Khyber Kim who was a consistent animal last term, but may need softer ground over 2m and hasn't been seen yet this season. (Would have been excellent had he run in the bula against the 2nd season hurdlers)
Also Binoculars three best performances have come with Celestial Halo setting a very strong gallop resulting in horses tiring later in the race, a comparison with the Supreme field in last two years has seen the Supreme well behind with 4f left to go before catching a tiring Champion Hurdle field. Binocular has been beaten in a few races where the pace has been sedate, with no Celestial Halo and pace makes being ignored (like in the Bula) the pace of this years Champion may be slower than the past two.
Verdict: If he turns up in the form he was last time, with g/s or better ground and there is a decent rival setting a strong gallop it would take something special to beat him.
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Hurricane Fly - Without doubt the best Irish hope, fto defeat of a race fit Solwhit on his opponents ideal distance and conditions was another improvement from the little horse. Proven better than two multiple Grade 1 winners in Solwhit and Go Native.
Pros: Very consistent, gutsy, versatile, classy performer with plenty of stamina who travels exceptionally well through his races with a slick hurdling technique and an exceptional turn of foot. He has shown everything you want in a top class hurdler and as yet has exhibited no clear weakness.
He is a very exciting prospect. It is impressive how he gets to the head of affairs still on the bridle in big fields despite any trouble in running and responds every time when asked a question. Improvement will be needed and should come with an uninterrupted campaign given massive improvement shown from 1st to 2nd run in his novice days. If similar improvement is seen in his next two races and given his turn of foot, he will relish the good ground at Cheltenham and he could possibly go off fav for the Champion Hurdle.
Cons: Never even raced in England, let alone Cheltenham. Has as yet to show a level of form good enough to win a Champion Hurdle. Has twice missed Cheltenham due to injury, but this should not be too much of a concern as the horse is no value as an antepost prospect. He has yet to experience the end to end gallop that he will experience in a Champion hurdle and will have to tackle the hill for the first time. Could well go to Cheltenham having only run in 3 slowly run races in Ireland on soft ground against only Solwhit each time. Also regular jockey Paul Townend may be forced to give the ride to Ruby Walsh who has only ridden the horse once in a Novice Hurdle.
Verdict: Hugely exciting horse who looks every bit a Champion Hurdler but totally unbackable at current odds given his injury record, but certainly a big player if getting there on the back of two more good runs.
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Menorah - Supreme, Greatwood and Bula winner. He's 3/3 at Cheltenham and looks to be improving.
Pros: Well clearly his Cheltenham form is a big plus, he's won three races at the track in different manners, the Supreme where he was bumped about a bit and still got to the front to win, the Greatwood giving weight away and the bula putting the race to bed early by leaving two highly rated hurdlers in his wake with a turn of foot off the bend. He's a consistent and likeable horse who is improving.
Cons: Has he really beat enough? While Silviniaco Conti and Cue Card are highly rated neither achieved their ratings in a 2mile open company hurdle race, both are 4yo's and hugely inexperienced having run a combined 5 hurdle races between them going into the bula. So is a 5l defeat of Silviniaco Conti in receipt of 4lbs really form to beat the likes of Binocular, Khyber Kim and Hurricane Fly in a Champion Hurdle? In my opinion most certainly not, but he is an improver, so he may well improve again to feature.
Also the horse will go chasing next season if he fails to win the Champion, horses with set plans from an early stage to go chasing have a poor record in the Champion Hurdle, it's that they lack the slickness over hurdles that top class hurdlers have. It's like "we'll have a go at the Champion Hurdle before we go Chasing".
Verdict: An improving horse how could well improve enough to win, but 4/1f for the race is a complete farce given what he's beat, he's completely unbackable at those prices and a drift to 6/1 on the day is almost certain, huge lay at current odds for those inclined.
Peddlers Cross - Unbeaten hurdler who was winner of the Neptune at the festival and claimed the scalp of the Champion Binocular in the Fighting Fifth.
Pros: Well he's unbeaten for a start, he's got stamina having won over 2m5f at the festival something he'll need in a Champion Hurdle, he has the speed for 2m given he won the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth (a race which has featured the last 3 Champion hurdle winners). What was interesting about the FF win was how he found plenty off the bridle, how he picked up again after the last when challenged a trait that is very likable and reminds us of the tough battlers Hardy Eustace and Brace Inca. With another run to come at Haydock in January we will get to see more of Peddlers and hopeful see improvement and get more clues.
Cons: How fit was the Binocular he beat? The visual impression was of Binocular travelling up on the bit to jump the last then blowing up, it was a far cry from the binocular who powered up the hill in the Champion Hurdle. It's also more likely that Peddlers was more fit than Binocular that day, if you want to test yourself against the Champ you're going to give yourself every chance of victory. Plus a horse who stays 2m5f at Cheltenham is going to tire less fto than 2m horses. Also he is another horse who will go chasing next season if he fails to win the Champion.
Verdict: Hard to judge his 2m form on that Fighting Fifth win, would need to show more on his next outing at Haydock, can't be discounted and would love to see them go off at a Celestial Halo pace like last year and try run them into the ground, especially as he seems to find more each time a horse comes to him. 13/2 represents better value than Menorah, but still not enough to back at. Better value will be present in January when horses run over Christmas
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Khyber Kim - Last seasons form of 1121 is impressive, and he ran a cracking race to be 2nd to binocular, a level of form that would win most champion hurdles. He seems a different horse since he left Henderson.
Pros: Consistent performer, who could easily win the Champion Hurdle if running to the same level he did in the last renewal. 4 of the last 6 winners of the Champion Hurdle had run in the race the previous year. Having a later start this season in the hope he is as fresh as possible in March could elicit improvement and slightly softer ground may tip things in his favour. Like Binocular his season revolves around one race.
Cons: Unlike the others at the top of the market he was beaten well, on merit by Binocular in the Champion there seems no reason he should reverse that form given he'll be 9 next year with Binocular the prime age of 7. Is he flattered by his form last season given what he beat in the Greatwood (Harry Tricker, Medermit), the Bula (Celestial Halo, Medermit, Punjabi), the Champion (Zaynar, Celestial Halo, Starluck) and Aintree (Muirhead, Zaynar). It would have been very informative had he run in the bula this year.
Verdict: At 16/1 he represents the e/w value at this stage given his consistency, the place side odds of 4/1 prices him at a 20% chance to finish in the first three. A win in the Christmas Hurdle would see his odds shorten considerably.
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Dunguib - The once wonder horse was comical prices to win both last season's and this season Champion Hurdle before the bubble was burst in the Supreme and Punchestown.
Pros: He has a serious cruising speed and some serious pace, there is buckets of talent there for sure. He's been given time off for a Spring Campaign, with intense schooling to improve his hurdling and in an effort to not run him on heavy ground in Ireland which would mean he'll be fresh come the Champion Hurdle. He could easily have won the Supreme had they not given him such an over confident ride, had that happened who knows what price he would be now. If hurdling is improved and he is ridden close to the pace he could still be a big player in the 2m division.
Cons: By word he can't jump a hurdle at all, nothing has a hope of winning a champion hurdle if they can't jump. Especially given the class of the opposition. Menorah has gone on and improved since the Supreme, Dunguib hasn't as yet shown any reason to believe he can reverse the Supreme form.
Verdict: Can't possibly back him until we see him run in the Irish Champion, he might be some value at the 25/1 you can get, but only if there is positive words on his hurdling.
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Silviniaco Conti: Only running in this as they have nothing else in the race, 16/1 is terrible value and couldn't see him reversing form with Menorah given how easily he was outpaced.
Solwhit: Unlikely to run, trainer said if a race fit Solwhit can't beat Hurricane Fly over 2m4f on soft ground they have no hope of beating him over 2m on good ground at Cheltenham. Odds on to skip Cheltenham like last year and go for the 2m4f Aintree Hurdle.
Celestial Halo: Unlikely runner, will skip the festival and focus on the Aintree Hurdle or will run in the World Hurdle with a view to taking over from Big Bucks next season when he inevitably goes chasing.
Starluck: can only win on a flat track, even if he wins the Christmas Hurdle he can't win the Champion.
Oscar Whiskey: Seems to be a bit forgotten, interesting how he shapes on his first run in the Christmas Hurdle.
Selections:
Khyber Kim 1pt e/w @ 16/1
He represents the best value at this stage.
Binocular 2pts win @ 5/1
If you are going to back him there seems no downside to not backing him now, if he wins at Kempton he shortens if he loses he'll still go off on the day shorter than 5/1.
My main bet remains a total of 5pts on Hurricane Fly at odds from 12/1 to 9/1.
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Excellent write up. I think if Overturn runs and guarantees a test it will play into the hands of Hurricane Fly. People are over stating his absence the last 2 years, Ruby and Willie Mullins know how good this one is and Binocular aside, he has more class than the rest of them put together. Binocular rates the big danger. I believe Hurrican Fly is the only one who could have lived with him last year and if Binocular shows up in a similar vein of form this time I can see him and Hurricane Fly stride by side up the straight fighting out what may prove to be a race for the ages with the Fly coming out on top.
Much and all as I love the likes of Menorah and Peddlars I don't think they could live with either of these two at their best. But for Binocular Khyber Kim would have been an impressive winner last year, hard to see where he will find the neccessary improvement. Dunguib is held by Menorah at the track, see no reason why that form might be reversed in a Champion Hurdle, maybe just maybe if they got a top jock but still won't win it. |
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CVB
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Good write up.
Peddlers Cross doesn't need to front run. I think the Fighting Fifth form is strong. |
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A very fine write up my friend; admirably objective observations, given how difficult objectivity is when putting such a post together. I've rated it 5 stars and I hope others will start rating posts regularly to help discourage some of the nonsense (need to use new beta forum to rate).
One small section I'd debate with you, I'm not sure that Peddlers Cross's stamina necessarily suggests he'd tire less readily than recognised 2 milers. There's an argument that having to go faster than he's used to should see him tire more quickly. In the end aerobic fitness on the day would be the deciding factor, imo, rather than a horse's preferred trip. |
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CV where did you nick this from then?
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[:)]CV
An most pleasing & thought provoking summary. |
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And considerably better than my grammar.
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Thanks Steeple, I tried to look at each horse in detail leaning on discussion we've had up to this point and I normally have 3 AP bets on the race so was trying to decide who would be the best value and really in particular pick at binoculars form as I think 5/1 may be a bit of value about a top class horse.
I have backed Khyber Kim e/w at 12's and am 99% certain to back binocular but 5's will still be there on Friday. The thing with Peddlers is I think he should take it up pretty far from home given he seems to keep finding more for pressure. I think like CH's run last year where he took it up from Osana. A tactic I hope they only use for the first time on the day. The point being I can't see him winning with a turn of foot. He needs to get them off the bridle before the last if he's to win. |
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Sorry Khyber Kim is baced at 16's not 12's with billys
 FFT, |
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My tuppence worth . . .
I've already backed Peddlers Cross at decent odds and have just taken 80 on here about the unbeaten Soldatino. The Triumph winner needs to find about 25lbs on official ratings to figure, but he looks the type to have quite a bit of improvement in him. After his UK debut win in the Adonis, I backed him for the Triumph where which I think he could have won much more comfortably had Geraghty not given Barizan so much rope. Barizan's performances this season appear to have devalued the Triumph form but I fear connections might now be reaping what they sowed in giving the young Barizan such a tough first season - 10 runs in 10 months. Soldatino's easy defeat of Toubab at Kempton doesn't look too bad now after that horse's facile Haydock victory (though the suet pudding ground that day would give me some reservations about the form). Anyway, with so many promising horses at the front of the market, I don't mind taking a chance on Soldatino. Henderson reports him in good heart and if he turns up on the day, I very much doubt he'll be anything like 79/1. |
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He clearly stole it from me FFT imo
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Good write up CV. Do think Dunguib's jumping is overly exaggerated though. Obviously he's not great over them but I wouldn't say he can't jump them at all. He put in some good jumps in his novice canters at the beginning of the season, albeit under absolutely no pressure. Think his Punchestown run was down to the way he pulled that day rather than being totally outclassed. Can't imagine the horse was 100% there either. Is he definitely going to the Irish Champion straight away? Read somewhere that they're looking elsewhere as that's a bit of a tough introduction for the season. If he doesn't go to the Irish Champion and gets to face moderate opposition fto, 25/1 could be a great price with a view to trade.
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You'd have to start last year to type that much BJG
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Steeple, 80's is a big price for a Triumph winner, but he's only run twice ever. To think he'll have at most 4 career runs over hurdles and to compete and win this season Champion seems impossible. I always believe 5yo's find one too good in the Champion. Katchit
 being the exception but he was a very seasoned horse for a 5yo, won a shocking Champion and the race ended him. He seems to be priced as if he won't run and Henderson does have Binocular and Oscar Whiskey already. But at 80's you can't go too wrong. Wicketd, I agree with your assessment of Dunguib, he did hurdle well at Punchestown and lost that race because he pulled too hard. I think if he is given a bit of cover and ridden close to the pace he will be at his best, IF, and that's if he can hurdle better. I've found the last comments from Fenton about Dunguibs plans, you'd think it'd be pointless pitching him in against Hurricane Fly and Solwit give their consistency and class. Everything is fine, he's in good form and we're very happy with him," said Fenton. "He's just cantering away at the moment and we made the decision that he wouldn't start off until after Christmas because we don't want to run him in heavy ground again. "We just think that the second half of the season is more important than the first half, so hopefully we'll see him sometime in January. "The Irish Champion Hurdle might be ambitious for his first run but that might be an option, we'll just have a look and see nearer the time. "I've still got every faith in him and he's in brilliant order." |
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Found this from a few days ago, which backs up what you just said.
Former star bumper performer Dunguib is on course to return to the racecourse in the new year. His reappearance has yet to be decided but the 2m3f Limestone Lad Hurdle at Naas on January 15 and the 2m Red Mills Trial Hurdle at Gowran Park a month later are possibilities. The Grade 1 BHP Insurance Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown on January 23 has also been discussed, but trainer Philip Fenton believes it would be “ambitious for a first run of the season”. Fenton added: “He’s grand and I’m happy with him so far. The weather would have held him up anyway as, while we have been able to keep them all ticking over, I would have liked to have done a little bit more with him if he was to be running sooner. He’s on track, but where he runs will depend on how ready he is when these races come up. We’ll step up his work in the next few weeks.” |
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Very good piece CV but just a general question not a dig at yourself but what price does anyone think Binocular would be but for his Champion winning run?
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As in if he had missed the festival instead of running and winning? I'd say 16/1.
But given he did run and win so well his price will hold firm even if he loses at Kempton. |
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Agree with what you saying its amazing how some horses have the sexy label and will always be popular,personally I don't think the 16/1 would be a good price if he had missed the festival last year on his overall form.
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saw the thread earlier, saved reading it til now, rather read that than any racing post preview - great summary, can't disagree with any observations
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Any thoughts on the race Rob?
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Binocular (mightily impressive last year and probably the most impressive in any recent year for that matter) or H Fly for me
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nice work cvb,always good to see decent posts on here
had done my own one for a rival forum a while ago but hadnt finished due to work duties but yours echoes most of my own thoughts but i did have it down as peddlers/khyber e/w....dont want to see what i wrote about menorah though :s best wishes |
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great stuff cvb..a pleasure.
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I agree Khyber Kims price is large. I'm also having a bit of Starluck to lay after the Christmas Hurdle.
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Good post CVB. The debate will continue apace when the cation resumes.
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Excellent.
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Nice one cv,hard to argue with too much of that mate,best take another look!!
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Now I know you didn't read it mate.Hopefully we'll get a Christmas Hurdle in the next few days and then have something to talk about. I want Khyber Kim to win by a short head Just watched the best of Istabraq video on youtube there. Defo the best I'll ever see. He was some horse. |
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Istabraq, only ever had one bet on him,his 1st CH, my mate was so certain he would not win he gave me 5's,never backed him again,did not have so much money in them days,not to bet with anyway,but he is still my fav hurdler ever.
Saw Charlie Swan at Newbury Hennessey day last year,asked him how the greatest hurdler was,gave me a smile and said he's fine. As for now,we need to see some more action soon,running out of things for us to debate!! |
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I recall Aiden being asked, when after his novice yr he said he intended to campaign over 2, whether he thought the horse needed further having won the sun alliance. With a half smile he said something along the lines of 'well maybe he didn't really stay' when winning the Sun Alliance. What a horse.
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Excellent piece CV, agree with nearly all and i have backed same 3 as you mate,proviso Hurricane Fly nr no bet and Binocular both at 4s with badblokes and Kim at 14s with Sid with Binocular concession.
Good luck over the festive season, lets hope we see some action. |
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Thoroughly enjoyed reading this CV. An excelent write up, you'd be hard pushed to find a better summation of the race.
Sadly not enough of this on here anymore. Hopefully this will inspire some more quality posts. It's shaping up into a cracker, the race I'm looking forward to most. The market is well developed and the only value left for me is Dunguib. I was watching a repeat of last years Supreme on R UK last night, he was given such a safe ride and should have been much closer to the pace, he stayed on well at the end. I don't think they will make that mistake this year. It will be interesting to see how he gets on this season, saying that improvement is required. |
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16's about khyber kim looks large, but if i was being picky and you have to in this league, is that his wins were just off high class and
i would have thought that 2.5 miles was his trip to make the best use of his finish. an in and out horse - could get larger price. binocular has to be there, prefer a proper gallop at 2miles but still the undisputed daddy. dont care what way you read the form book, menorah is a proper horse and would most definitley never be laying this one but 4's is short so i can see why you might, squeaky bum time!!! i would defo not rule out cue card or silviniaco conti yet . dunguib, starluck - NO peddlars cross, hurricane def possibles but i have no firm opinions fwiw. |
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overturn probably run well in xmas hurdle but cheltenham
is another country altogether, still very smart horse and could have more to offer. |
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Thanks, CV, that is a very enjoyable read and an excellent summary of where we probably are with the main contenders at this stage. The selections offered also make a lot of sense, not least because they have covered quite well different possibilities for what the ground conditions might be like on the day.
I think your analysis illustrates well how hard it seems at this stage to separate the main contenders. We have an interesting race in prospect for a range of reasons, not least because in PC we have a horse who, on appearance, looks a chasing type, but may well have enough ability over hurdles to be right up there in the mix. I remember when Night Nurse battled on to hold off Bird’s Nest, Monksfield, Dramatist and Sea Pigeon in the 1977 renewal, the trainer was interviewed afterwards and said, in his typically understated way: “He’s not too bad over hurdles for a horse that’ll take a fence in time”. I am not sure I will see a more competitive race at top level over hurdles than that one in 1977, though there is the prospect this time that we might have three or four very good horses battling it out to the line from some way out in a hard fought, driving finish. Trying to envisage what type of race it will be is always difficult, but arguably is among the most important factors to get right when trying to make selections in a race of this quality and competitiveness. Last March, the race was pretty much over by the time they reached the final bend. Celestial Halo was starting to weaken, Zaynar wasn’t able to take it up to any extent, KK was making ground, but not travelling quite well enough to be a serious threat to Binocular, and the rest were some way behind. Binocular was going so well at that stage, McCoy was taking a pull on him going around the final turn. This time there has to be a fair chance there will be three or four good horses with enough left in the tank going down the hill to make more of a fight of it in the closing stages. I am not sure McCoy will have the luxury of being able to take a pull on Binocular this time. Possibly more likely they will be racing hard before two out, with horses like PC trying to make their strength tell by forcing a driving finish as early in the closing stages as they dare risk. Assuming the early pace has been strong enough, the ability to dig deep and find more from the front in the finish could prove crucial. I find PC very interesting in that regard - I just need a little more persuasion he is classy enough to hold his own in other respects with the likes of HF and Binocular over a stiff two miles. Otherwise I might be looking to combine Menorah with one of the clearly brilliant speedsters, Binocular and HF. Another thing I guess will be worth reflecting on more as we get nearer the race is the likely ground conditions and how that will impact on each of the main contenders. I like HF’s apparent versatility ground wise. He seems to act on soft quite well, but may be even better suited by good ground, as long as the combination of good ground, high pace and steep undulations doesn’t aggravate any overhang from the splint problems he suffered in 2009. With Binocular, I wish I could work out how much of his brilliant performance in the CH last season could be explained in terms of the good ground and how much was down to other factors, such as the fact that he was approaching his peak as a hurdler in terms of age and physical maturity last March (he was still maturing the two previous times he had run at the Festival). Should still be at his peak this time, but will it matter to Binocular if the ground has a bit more cut in it than last time? A lot may depend on the answer to that question. |
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nice write up, any views of soldatino?
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Nice write up but I could not disagree more about Menorah. I think the horse is pretty more bomb proof. If they go fast - as they surely will- that will play right into his hands and if it's a slow pace he has already shown in the Bula that he can quicken up real good of a slow pace.
Add in the fact that he seems to be improving and is 3 from 3 at Cheltenham and there are very few negatives. Hurricane Fly is injury prone and has never run in a championship race at the festival, Binocular is a law unto himself and Kyber Kim couldn't win last year and this year's race will be hotter. All in all Menorah has an excellent profile from connections who know what it takes to win the race and is my idea of the winner |
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nice post aka...great stuff
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agree with Bosra about both the write up and Menorah but don't see him as an antepost proposition because can see him starting a longer price on the day than he is now.
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